1. Solar power +8 MW under implementation Delivered - In the September 2022 announcement, the company said projects to raise solar generation by 8 MW were under implementation, against current capacity of 33.62 MW. Solar capacity stood at 48.18 MW as on March 2026, an increase of \~14.56 MW.
2. Blended cement share - maintain at 90% Partial - In the September 2022 announcement, the company targeted maintaining blended cement at 90% of sales by volume while expanding sales. Blended cement was 85.06% in FY24, 81.72% in FY25, 88% in FY26 and \~85% in Q1 FY27 - never 90%.
3. Mukutban EBITDA-positive by end of FY23 Delivered - In the September 2022 announcement, the company said Mukutban would turn EBITDA-positive by the end of FY23. Mukutban turned EBITDA positive in March 2023, ahead of expectations.
4. 10% thermal substitution rate at all cement plants by 2030 On track - The FY24 BRSR set a voluntary target of a 10% thermal substitution rate at all cement plants by 2030. The FY24 and FY25 BRSR self-assessments both marked the target "On Track", with no quantitative substitution rate disclosed yet.
5. Mukutban capacity utilization - 85% in FY26 Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management said Mukutban was operating close to 80% utilization and "next year it will be 85%". FY26 volume rose from 24.6 to 27.7 lakh tons against 3.90 MTPA capacity, implying \~71%; Q1 FY27 annualizes to \~77%.
6. WHRS capacity - increase to \~50 MW On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, management said WHRS capacity was \~40 MW with \~10 MW more planned, taking it to roughly 50 MW; at Q1 FY27 this was reiterated from 43-44 MW via pipeline projects. Capacity was 43.35 MW as on March 2026, with no completion date specified.
7. FY27 cost increase - ₹150-175/ton from Q1 onwards Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management estimated a total cost impact of ₹150-175 per ton, mainly from packaging and fuel costs. The cited Q1 FY27 pages do not state the actual cost impact realized, so delivery of this guidance remains unverified.
8. Prayagraj and Gaya Phase 1 grinding units - start by FY28 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management confirmed the Prayagraj and Gaya Phase 1 grinding units (0.14 crore tons each) would start by FY28, in Q3-Q4. As of Q1 FY27, pre-project activities were "as per plan" with spending "almost nil"; the FY28 horizon is not yet reached.
9. Total capex for 21.5→27.5 crore ton addition - ₹4,753 crores On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management stated total capex for the 21.5→27.5 crore ton addition at ₹4,753 crores including GST, about ₹4,300 crores net. As of Q1 FY27, spending on the 0.62 crore ton FY29 expansion was "almost nil", with FY28 capex expected to "significantly increase".
10. Capacity expansion - 2.76 crore tons by FY29 On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management said capacity will reach 2.76 crore tons by FY29, with board approval of ₹4,335 crores to scale up from 2 crore tons to 27.6 mt by 2028-29. Kundanganj Line 3 commissioned in March 2026 took capacity to 2.14 crore tons; Q1 FY27 spending on the FY29 leg was "almost nil".
11. Bikram coal offtake - 1.2 lakh tons in FY27, 3.5 lakh tons in FY28 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided Bikram offtake of \~1.2 lakh tons in FY27 rising to full capacity \~3.6 lakh tons in FY28, reiterated at Q1 FY27 as 3.5 lakh tons next year. Bikram commenced operations in June 2026; full-year FY27 offtake is not yet determinable.
12. FY27 incentives - ₹130-135 crores On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided FY27 incentive income of \~₹130 crores, refined to ₹130-135 crores at Q1 FY27. Q1 FY27 incentives accrued were ₹33 crores, consistent with the annual target; the full-year horizon is not reached.
13. Peak net debt - ₹4,000 crores in capex cycle On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided peak net debt in this capex cycle in the range of ₹4,000 crores, maintained at Q1 FY27. Net debt at Q1 FY27 was ₹2,300 crores; the capex cycle is in early stages and the peak is not yet reached.
14. FY27 capex - ₹900 crores On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided FY27 capex of ₹900 crores, maintained at Q1 FY27. Q1 FY27 capex was around ₹120 crores, consistent with a ₹900 crore annual plan; the full-year horizon is not reached.
15. FY27 volume growth - mid-single digit / close to 2 crore tons On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, the CFO tempered the stated FY27 guidance to "close to 2 crore tons" with "mid-single digit in terms of volume" growth, maintained at Q1 FY27. Q1 FY27 revenue grew 7.83% YoY; the full-year volume outcome is not yet available.
16. Net debt - less than ₹3,000 crores by end of FY26 Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided net debt to close the year at less than ₹3,000 crores. FY26 year-end net debt was about ₹2,100 crores, ₹2,082 crore per the FY26 annual report.
17. FY26 capex - around ₹1,000 crores Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided FY26 capex of around ₹1,100 crores, reaffirmed as "around ₹1,000 crores" at Q1 FY26, revised to \~₹800 crores at Q2 FY26. Q1 FY26 capex was ₹100 crores and nine-month capex around ₹300 crores, well below even the revised plan.
18. FY26 volume growth - 6% to 7% Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management reiterated volume growth guidance of "6% to 7%" for FY26, later talked down to 4-5% and then "3% to 4%" through the year. FY26 volume growth was about 4%, with cement sales volume of 18.72 MT, +3.6% YoY.
19. Net debt - below ₹3,000 crores by end of FY25 Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided net debt to close below ₹3,000 crores by end of FY25, maintained through the year. FY25 net debt reduced from ₹3,003 crore to ₹2,244 crore.
20. FY25 capex - around ₹800 crores Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided capex of around ₹800 crores for FY24-25, revised down to about ₹700 crores at Q2 FY25 and ₹500 crores at Q3 FY25. Total FY25 capex was ₹437 crores, \~45% below the original plan.
21. FY25 incentives - around ₹110 crores Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided overall incentives of around ₹110 crores for FY25, against \~₹160 crores accrued in FY24, with later quarters pointing to \~₹100 crores. Total incentives accrued in FY25 were ₹103 crores.
22. Mukutban FY25 volume - 0.27 crore tons Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided Mukutban volume of about 0.27 crore tons in FY25. FY25 dispatches stabilized and Q4 FY25 volume was 7,50,000 tons; the implied FY25 total of 24.6 lakh tons was 0.246 crore tons, \~9% short.
23. FY25 EBITDA per ton growth - 8% to 10% Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided EBITDA per ton growth of 8% to 10% for FY25, off the FY24 base of ₹808 crores of EBITDA. FY25 cement EBITDA per ton declined 15.53% to ₹683, with FY25 EBITDA of ₹1,315.13 crore, down 13.66%.
24. FY25 volume growth - 8% to 10% Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided volume growth of 8% to 10% for FY25, revised to about 4% "plus or minus" at Q2 FY25. FY25 consolidated cement sales grew 2.48% YoY, with volume of \~18.07 MT versus 17.65 MT in FY24.
25. Shikhar manufacturing-excellence - ₹100/ton savings in 2 years Partial - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided the Shikhar project to reach ₹100/ton savings in 2 years, versus ₹55 already achieved. Shikhar delivered ₹41.48/ton in FY24, Unnati added ₹36.92 crore in FY25, and Q3 FY26 showed unit cost down \~₹200/ton YoY, but no disclosed confirmation of ₹100/ton.
26. Maihar Line 2 clinker capacity doubling - targeted for FY27 Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, management reiterated Maihar Line 2 clinker doubling (10,000 TPD to 20,000 TPD) targeted for FY27, with capex starting in FY25. No clinker capacity has been added; the timeline slipped to FY28 then FY29, and at Q1 FY27 order placement had yet to begin.
27. Kundanganj grinding unit (Prayagraj, 1.4 MTPA) - commissioning by end of FY25 Partial - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided Kundanganj grinding unit (1.4 MTPA, Prayagraj) commissioning by end of FY25, i.e., production from Q4 FY25. The third line was commissioned in March 2026, one year late, with full volume benefit expected in FY27.
28. Net debt - below ₹3,400 crores by end of FY24 Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided net debt to end FY24 below ₹3,400 crores. Net debt as of March 31, 2024 was ₹3,003 crores; subsequent targets of below ₹3,000 crores were also met, with FY26 year-end net debt about ₹2,100 crores.
29. Debt-to-EBITDA - within 3x on a sustainable basis Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, the CFO reiterated a debt-to-EBITDA target of within 3 on a sustainable basis. Net debt/PBILDT improved to 2.38x in FY26 from 2.91x in FY25, 2.17x per another basis; debt-to-EBITDA was already below 2 as of 31st March 2024.
30. FY24 capex - around ₹1,000 crores Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, the CFO guided FY24 total capex of around ₹1,000 crores, including sustenance, Shikhar, coal block operationalization and remaining Mukutban capex. By Q3 FY24, capex was guided below ₹700 crores with ₹415 crores done till December; consolidated CWIP reached ₹480.23 crore at March 2024, well short of the original plan.
31. Mukutban incentives - start reflecting in P&L from H2 FY24 Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, the CFO said Mukutban incentive of approximately ₹600/ton would start reflecting in the P&L towards the middle of H2 FY24, with full effect in FY25. No incentives were recognized in Q3 or Q4 FY24 as the registration certificate was not received; accrual began in FY25, with ₹21 crore total incentives in Q1 FY25.
32. Kundanganj incentives - running till end of FY24 Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management said the Kundanganj incentives had not expired and still had "a full year to go," i.e., until end of FY24. The incentives duly ended on March 31, 2024, as confirmed on the Q4 FY24 call.
33. Captive coal share - 38-40% from Bikram, \~60% from Marki-Barka On track - At the Q4 FY23 call, the CFO said Bikram at full operation would meet 38-40% of kiln fuel from captive sources, rising to \~60% with Marki-Barka commissioned. Captive coal was 15% of the fuel mix in Q3 FY25; Bikram commenced operations in June 2026 and Marki-Barka has not yet started.
34. Marki-Barka coal mine - start in November 2025 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, the CFO stated Marki-Barka was expected to start in November 2025. No production has commenced as of Q1 FY27, with management in touch with the government on regulatory issues; the timeline was pushed successively to FY27, FY28 and "maybe by FY29".
35. Bikram coal mine - start in Q3 FY24 (October 2023) Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, the CFO said the Bikram coal mine was expected to start in Q3 FY24, "October to be precise". The timeline slipped repeatedly over eight quarters; Bikram commenced operations in June 2026, roughly two years late, with full capacity expected in FY28.
36. FY24 volume growth - more than 15% Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, the CFO guided volume growth of more than 15% for FY24, on a FY23 base of 1.57 crore tons, revised down to \~13% at Q3 FY24 on market conditions. FY24 growth exceeded 12% YoY, with group cement volumes up 12% to 17.65 MT - a near-miss on the revised target.
37. FY24 EBITDA per ton - ₹850/ton average Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, the CFO guided EBITDA per ton including Mukutban and incentives at ₹850/ton average for FY24, versus \~₹480/ton in FY23, a figure defended through Q3 FY24. FY24 EBITDA was ₹808 crores on 17.65 MT of cement volume, implying roughly ₹458/ton, though Q4 FY24 EBITDA per ton was around ₹974.
38. Power and fuel cost - lower by at least ₹250/ton in FY24 Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, the CFO guided power and fuel cost lower by at least ₹250/ton in FY24 versus the FY23 level of ₹1,500/ton, on account of WHRS, Bikram coal mines and solar. FY24 power and fuel cost was around ₹1,197/ton - implied by FY25's ₹1,035/ton being 13.57% lower - a reduction of \~₹300/ton, and Q4 FY24 was "probably ahead of the guidance".
39. Mukutban variable cost reduction - ₹300-400/ton in FY24 Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, the CFO guided Mukutban cement variable cost to come down by another ₹300-400 in FY24 from the March 2023 exit level of less than ₹2,800/ton. Mukutban variable cost was down about 50% year-on-year at Q2 FY24, but no Mukutban-specific FY24 exit figure is disclosed to confirm the full range.
40. FY24 cost savings - at least ₹50/ton from improvement projects Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, the CFO guided total cost savings of at least ₹50/ton in FY24 from specific improvement projects, excluding Bikram coal savings. Project Shikhar delivered ₹41.48 per ton for full-year FY24, with gross savings of ₹66.18 crore, and the Dec-2023 quarter alone showed savings of at least ₹55 per ton.
41. Mukutban exit volume - 2,00,000 tons/month by March 2024 Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, MD Sandip Ghose firmly guided Mukutban sales to exit FY24 at about 2,00,000 tons/month, versus the March 2023 exit of \~1,00,000 tons/month. Mukutban crossed 200,000 tons in January 2024, ahead of target; Q4 FY24 volume was 6.6 lakh tons with a March 2024 exit run-rate of 2.5 lakh tons.