Blackbuck Ltd Guidance Report - SOIC x StockScans Report
as of Sep 2026
- IPO object - general corporate purposes: ₹45 cr FY25, ₹45 cr FY26, ₹45 cr FY27
Delivered - The IPO prospectus allocated ₹45.000 crore each in Fiscal 2025, 2026 and 2027 to general corporate purposes. Spending was "On Schedule" as of 31st March 2025, and ₹121.689 cr was utilised by March 2026 against ₹90 cr planned for FY25+FY26.
- IPO object - product development: ₹25 cr FY25, ₹25 cr FY26, ₹25 cr FY27
Partial - The IPO prospectus allocated ₹25.000 crore each in Fiscal 2025, 2026 and 2027 to product development. Only ₹1.555 crore was utilised till 31st March 2025 against the ₹25 cr FY25 plan; cumulative utilisation reached ₹45.375 cr by March 2026, below the ₹50 cr planned for FY25+FY26.
- IPO object - Blackbuck Finserve investment: ₹140 cr FY25
Partial - The IPO prospectus allocated ₹140.000 crore in Fiscal 2025 to augment the capital base of NBFC subsidiary Blackbuck Finserve. ₹40.000 crore was utilised till 31st March 2025; the full ₹140 cr was in place by March 2026, with ₹40 cr invested in FY25 and ₹100 cr in FY26.
- IPO object - sales and marketing costs: ₹75 cr FY25, ₹75 cr FY26, ₹50 cr FY27
Partial - The IPO prospectus allocated ₹75.000 crore in Fiscal 2025, ₹75.000 crore in Fiscal 2026 and ₹50.000 crore in Fiscal 2027 to sales and marketing costs. ₹10.313 crore was utilised till 31st March 2025 against the ₹75 cr FY25 plan; cumulative utilisation reached ₹137.297 cr by March 2026, below the ₹150 cr planned for FY25+FY26.
- SuperLoads hub maturity benchmark - 5,000 loads/month
On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management set a hub-maturity benchmark of 5,000 loads a month (\~200-250 loads a day) where network effects come to strong fruition, with playbook building advancing 5 to 10 percentage points every quarter. The first super loads hub is "decently close" to the milestone - "more than halfway there" on numbers and "60 by 70% there" on playbook building.
- SuperLoads first four cities maturation - next one year
On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management committed that, over the next one year, it would do everything it takes to mature the first four super loads cities (Bangalore, Hyderabad, Mumbai, Chennai) and put newer cities in the same direction as those four mature. The first hub is "decently close" to the 5,000 loads/month milestone, and 70-80% of newer cities are growing faster than the first four.
- Vehicle finance exit investment mode - profitability by end of FY27
On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management said vehicle finance would exit investment mode and start churning cash flows "probably by the end of this financial year"; at Q1 FY27 it reiterated convergence into profitability by end of FY27. Disbursals grew 25% QoQ in Q4 FY26, and the business continues to converge towards profitability, though no profitability was achieved as of Q1 FY27.
- Core business growth - around 25% levels
Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management indicated core business growth should be modeled at "around like 25% levels" plus unpredictable adjacencies. Core businesses grew 37% YoY in Q2 FY26, 31.5% in Q3 FY26, \~30% in Q4 FY26 and 34% for FY26, and \~21% YoY in Q1 FY27.
- SuperLoads 10 new hubs - 14-15 hubs in six months
Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management planned to open 10 new hubs in super loads over the next six months, from 4 hubs to "in the range of 14-15 hubs"; at Q3 FY26 the CEO reiterated visibility of 14 cities by June 2026. SuperLoads went from 4 cities to 9 by Q3 FY26 and 14 cities by Q1 FY27, with 10 new cities launched by March-April 2026.
- Operating leverage - 70%+ to continue
Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management said with reasonable confidence that the operating leverage (70%+ delivered consistently over two years) "will continue to play out as we keep building the growth trajectory". Operating leverage came in at 88% YoY in Q1 FY26, 65% QoQ and 77% in H1 FY26, 93% in Q3 FY26, and 60-85% in Q1 FY27.
- Total expenses shrinkage not to continue - investment in growth ahead
Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management said the \~6% shrinkage in total expenses should not be expected to continue - "we would be investing in growth as we move into the next quarters". Total expenses grew \~18% YoY in Q2 FY26 and \~31% YoY in Q1 FY27, driven by investments in growth businesses, telematics and manpower.
- Effective tax rate - 24-25%
On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, the CFO guided the effective tax rate "would be 24%, 25%"; at Q3 FY26 this was refined to \~25% of other income as current tax and \~25% of EBITDA excluding other income as deferred tax. Q1 FY27 income tax expense was ₹(0.04) Cr, with deferred tax offsetting current tax, and Q4 FY26 PAT of ₹65.73 cr included deferred tax asset recognition.
- Cash tax outgo - treasury income only for few quarters
Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, the CFO guided that cash tax outgo should be thought of "only from a treasury income point of view, at least for a few quarters from now". Q1 FY26 current tax was \~₹3.8 cr on other/treasury income out of \~₹12 cr total, and Q1 FY27 income tax expense was ₹(0.04) Cr with deferred tax set to offset current tax for the next two quarters.
- Last charge for discontinued operations - February-closed contingent obligation
Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management said the February-closed contingent obligation means "this is the last charge that we will have on this particular piece" for discontinued operations. Q4 FY25 loss from discontinued operations was ₹-5.59 Cr, and no subsequent discontinued operations charges were disclosed in FY26 or Q1 FY27.
- No massive expansion in sales and marketing budgets
Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management said it does not foresee "massive expansion in our sales and marketing budgets", as penetration levels in PIN codes had been reached. IPO sales and marketing utilisation was ₹10.313 cr by March 2025 and ₹137.297 cr by March 2026 against a ₹200 cr total allocation, while total expense growth went to core business, vehicle finance and super loads.
- User growth - higher double digits to lower double digits over 3-5 years
On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management said monthly transacting truck operator growth will be "range bound in this zone" - "higher double digits, lower double digits over the next course of 3 to 5 years". Transacting customers grew \~13% YoY in each quarter from Q1 FY26 through Q1 FY27, within a \~13-20% range seen over the last 10-12 quarters.
- PPI license operationalisation - few quarters
Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management said the PPI license, for which in-principle approval was received, "will take us probably in a few quarters to operationalize". Full PPI approval was received on July 2, 2025 and the RBI Certificate of Authorisation was issued; management flagged PPI-based products "a few quarters down the line".
- Freight brokerage understanding - 6-8 quarters
On track - At the Q3 FY25 call, management said it needs "at least six to eight quarters to get some understanding" of the freight brokerage business. SuperLoads reached 14 cities by Q1 FY27, matured cohorts break even in 3-4 months with 6-9 month cohorts delivering 30-40% EBITDA, and Bangalore playbook progress stood at "60 by 70%".
- Classifieds revenue potential - max ₹200 cr in 5-6 years
Pending - At the Q3 FY25 call, management indicated the classifieds revenue projection for the loads vertical "probably will be max INR200 crores in probably 5-6 years down the line". Classifieds grew 65-70% YoY in Q2 FY26, but no classifieds-specific revenue figure has been disclosed; growth businesses including loads earned ₹126.51 Cr in FY26.
- Loan disbursements improvement - Q4 FY25 onwards
Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management expected better loan disbursements going forward as partners' measured approach "slowly is going away". Vehicle finance disbursals grew 35% sequentially in Q3 FY26 and a further 25% QoQ in Q4 FY26, with partner-managed assets reaching close to ₹600 cr.
- Fuel payments growth - 20-25% YoY
Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management said it has "comfortably positioned a growth rate of 20%, 25% year-on-year" for the fuel payments vertical. Payments GTV grew \~35% YoY in Q3 FY25, \~33% in Q4 FY25, \~28% in Q1 FY26, \~29% in Q2 FY26 and \~23.5% in Q3 FY26, before OMC loyalty suspension hit Q4 FY26 and fuel was removed from Q1 FY27 GTV disclosure.
- PPI license economics - 15-20% improvement
Pending - At the Q3 FY25 call, management stated that if the PPI application succeeds, economics "will probably not improve 25% to 30%, probably will improve in the range of 15% to 20%". In-principle approval came in Q4 FY25, full approval on July 2, 2025 and the RBI Certificate of Authorisation to TZF Logistics Solutions followed, but no quantified margin improvement has been disclosed.
- Telematics revenue number - come back next earnings
Missed - At the Q3 FY25 call, management committed to take back the request for a telematics revenue number and "come back probably next earnings". No telematics revenue number was disclosed in Q4 FY25 or later; management stopped providing active GPS device counts and reports payments and telematics together.
- Fuel sensor category stabilisation - 18-24 months, revenues equivalent to current telematics
On track - At the Q3 FY25 call, management expected the fuel sensor category to stabilize "in the course of the next 18-24 months" and give rise to a new vertical delivering revenues equivalent to current overall telematics revenues. Fuel sensor sales doubled in Q4 FY25 and grew \~55% sequentially in Q2 FY26, with record telematics sales in Q3 FY26 and Q1 FY27, but parity with overall telematics revenues has not been disclosed.
- Fuel sensor material revenue - 6-9 months
Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management expected fuel sensor to start making material moves in growth businesses "in six to nine months down the line". Fuel sensor sales doubled in Q4 FY25 and grew \~55% sequentially in Q2 FY26, with telematics posting its strongest-ever Q3 in Q3 FY26 and highest-ever quarterly device sale in Q1 FY27.
- Segmental breakdown - when new businesses reach 15-20% of revenue or ₹50-60 cr annual
Partial - At the Q3 FY25 call, management said it will start giving segmental breakdown once new businesses touch 15% to 20% of revenue or ₹50-60 crores of annual revenue; the threshold was restated as "20% plus" at Q1 FY26 and pushed to "three to four quarters down the line" at Q1 FY27. Growth businesses revenue reached ₹126.51 Cr in FY26 (\~19.4% of revenue) and ₹58.99 cr (\~29%) in Q1 FY27, but detailed segment-level reporting has not yet commenced.
- No exceptional items repeat - immediate quarter
Partial - At the Q3 FY25 call, management expected "probably in the immediate quarter, we can expect none of these exceptional items to be repeating". Q3 FY25 PAT of negative ₹48 cr included ₹78 cr of exceptional items; Q4 FY25 exceptionals were ₹-0.78 Cr and Q1 FY26 had none, but Q3 FY26 PAT took an exceptional hit of roughly ₹3.5-4 cr from wages/labour code regulation changes.
- Adjusted EBITDA excluding other income - reporting transition in 2-3 quarters
Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management said it will move all reporting to adjusted EBITDA excluding other income over the course of 2 to 3 quarters. The Q4 FY25 PPT reported adjusted EBITDA excluding other income of ₹103.16 Cr for FY25, and from Q1 FY26 onwards it has been the standard reported metric.
- CAC payback - 9-12 months
On track - At the Q2 FY25 call, management stated CAC invested in the business "gets paid back in a very healthy fashion in between like 9 to 12 months"; at Q2 FY26 it said blended core paybacks were as aggressive as 7-8 months and 9-10 months would be acceptable. No specific payback figure was disclosed later, but management referenced 7-8 month core paybacks and new superloads pods breaking even within 3-4 months of team training.
- Operating cash flow - long-term trend with adjusted EBITDA
Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management stated operating cash flow "should in the longterm trend with the adjusted EBITDA with some approximations of the cash flow for devices, GPS devices", reiterated at Q4 FY25 as "whatever EBITDA we deliver, that's the cash we generate". FY25 cash flow was \~50% of adjusted EBITDA of ₹105 cr due to \~₹30 cr NBFC loans and a one-off ₹50 cr working capital item; FY26 cash generated from operations was ₹185.09 cr against adjusted EBITDA of ₹190.14 cr.
- ESOP expenses - ₹4-5 cr per quarter
Partial - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided ESOP expenses "will be again in the range of INR4 crores to INR5 crores every quarter"; the Q4 FY25 PPT scheduled charges of ₹6.39 Cr (Q1 FY26) declining to ₹1.7 Cr (Q4 FY27), later revised to ₹4.01 Cr for Q1 FY27 and then ₹4.37 Cr for Q2 FY27. Q1 FY27 actual employee share-based payment expense was ₹4.90 Cr, above the ₹4.01 Cr projection but within the original ₹4-5 cr range.
- Depreciation & amortisation - ₹7-8 cr per quarter
Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided depreciation & amortization "will be in the range of INR7 crores, INR7 crores to INR8 crores, continually every quarter"; at Q4 FY25 the CFO revised this to "INR8 crores to INR10 crores" after a one-time accelerated depreciation charge. Q4 FY25 D&A was ₹12.18 cr including the one-time charge, and Q1 FY27 D&A reached ₹22.54 cr, reflecting telematics device investment depreciated over two years.
- Brokerage (SuperLoads) model - 1-2 years to become strongest growth vector
On track - At the Q2 FY25 call, management said the brokerage loads model "is a model we're going to double down on" and "probably 1 to 2 years down the line, you will see that being one of the strongest vectors of growth"; subsequent updates moved from 3-4 quarters to exponential growth to a 14-15 hub plan and a commitment to mature the first four cities. SuperLoads grew from 1 city to 14 cities by Q1 FY27, with growth businesses revenue up \~300% YoY in Q4 FY26 and \~153% in Q1 FY27, and sequential SuperLoads growth of \~50% in Q1 FY27.
- GNSS-based tolling opportunity - 3-5 year rollout, billion-dollar telematics opportunity
Pending - At the Q2 FY25 call, management estimated GNSS-based tolling rollout "would take, anywhere in the range of three to five years to sort of come through" and "will probably create, a billion-dollar kind of opportunity in the telematics space in India". BlackBuck was involved in the GNSS pilot on the Bangalore-Mysore highway with an ANPR pilot ongoing, and by Q4 FY26 management was in "very early stages" of talks on the MLFF acquirer side, with no disclosed tolling revenue yet.
- Lending/vehicle finance partner integrations - 2-3 quarter materialisation
Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management stated one active technology integration partner was live, two new partners were in pipeline and five to seven in discussions, with "some of this should materialize over the next, two to three quarters". A new bank partner was onboarded on a CLM2 model by Q3 FY25, taking 80% of vehicle loan originations with full risk, and disbursals grew 35% sequentially in Q3 FY26 with partner-managed assets near ₹600 cr.
- Fee increase on tolling and GPS products - 20-40% implemented FY25
Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management stated the fee increase "in the range of 20% to 40%, depending on different fees and charges" on tolling and GPS products had been implemented for FY25, with revenue benefit expected "as we keep moving forward". The increase was implemented "very smoothly with no churn at all" in Q2 FY25, and core business revenue grew 47% YoY in Q2 FY25, 39% in FY25 and 34% in FY26.
- Tolling market share gains - 0.4-0.5% monthly, 3-5 year horizon
On track - At the Q2 FY25 call, management stated tolling market share continues to be acquired "in the range of 0.4% to 0.5% every month" and expects to "continue to keep gaining market share for a good long time of probably 3 years to 5 years"; at Q3 FY26 the CEO said \~65% share "is possible" in "maybe a 2-3 years timeline". Share moved from \~33% in FY24 to \~45.5% at end of FY25, "late-40s/\~50% range" in Q3 FY26, with tolling GTV up 27% YoY in FY26 vs \~16% industry growth and \~16% YoY in Q1 FY27 vs small single-digit industry growth.