1. FY27 capex - automation and IT, renewal/replacement On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management said FY27 capex will be largely in automation (sorters, MHE) and IT spend, in the nature of renewal/replacement and expansion in line with organic growth. Q1 FY27 added that annualized standalone capex will remain "to the tune of INR100 crores to INR150 crores"; no FY27 actuals are available yet.
2. GPI January 2026 - 9% to 12% price hike Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management said the 9%-12% price hike effective January was "still work in progress", with a clear picture "at the end of this quarter". At the Q4 FY26 call, the GPI was "a little better than what we had last year", with realization "more than 4%".
3. FY26 capex - similar range to \~₹250 crore Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management said FY26 capex would be "in the similar kind of range" as the \~INR 250 crore zone discussed; by Q3 FY26 the range was stated as INR100-150 crores excluding leases. FY26 standalone capex was INR 120 crores, within the revised range; consolidated capex was almost INR 360 crores including INR 200 crores aircraft/engine maintenance.
4. Ground share of mix - incremental 1-2% added over three-to-four years Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected the ground share of mix to add "incremental 1%, 2%" over the next three-to-four-year horizon. The air vs surface mix moved from \~65:35 in FY25 to 60:40 in FY26, a \~5 percentage point gain in one year.
5. GPI effective January 2025 - 9% to 12% price hike Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management confirmed the announced GPI effective January at "somewhere between 10%, 10% to 12%"; by Q3 FY25 it "has been effectively taken by the customers". Q4 FY25 saw successful increases with big and small customers, while the Q1 FY25 GPI contributed roughly 3.9%-4% additional revenue.
6. Add 2 to 3 hubs in FY25 Partial - At the Q1 FY25 call, management planned to add approximately another 2 to 3 hubs this year. A big integrated facility with autosorter opened at Bijwasan near Delhi airport in Q1 FY25, and a ground surface hub at Gurgaon-Pataudi followed in Q2 FY26; no disclosure of 2-3 hubs added within FY25.
7. Budgeted top-line growth - steady 10% to 15% increase Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, budgeted top-line growth was stated as a steady 10% to 15% increase, with 10% to 12% the decent growth aimed at; by Q4 FY25 the expectation was "consistent high single or low double-digit growth". FY25 revenue growth was 8.59% and FY26 7.35%, while Q1 FY27 came in at 14.97%.
8. FY25 capex - ₹250-odd crores including hub expansion Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, FY25 capex guidance of about ₹250-odd crores remained intact and included the hub expansion; by Q3 FY25 the budget was 127.4 crore with 62.2 crore spent in nine months. FY25 capex was ₹770 mn, or ₹77 crore, well below both figures.
9. Air fleet utilization - 90% to 92% optimum Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management aimed for air fleet utilization at "90% to 92%" as the optimum level, with "80%, 82%" the best average for the year. Utilization moved from 70%-75% in Q1 FY25 to "between 85% to 90%" by Q4 FY25, with main sectors above 90%-95% in Q4 FY26.
10. PBT margin improvement - 2% to 5% in nine months Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided to improve PBT margin by "another 2% to 5%" from the current 7.5%-8% range within "the next nine months". Q3 FY25 EBT margin was 7.04%, below the starting range, and at the Q4 FY26 call management declined to give a timeline.
11. PBT margins - return to pre-COVID normalized levels Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management endorsed that PBT margins "will come back to the same percentage as pre-COVID"; later calls reiterated 7%-8% PBT and \~8% EBIT targets. FY24 PBT margin was 7.38%, FY25 EBT margin 5.87% and FY26 5.14%.
12. Grow in line with or better than the market - improve market share Partial - At the Q1 FY24 call, management committed to growing in line with or better than the market, citing a 1.2x multiplier on nominal GDP for the express industry. FY24 volume growth was 1.8% Y-o-Y, while FY26 air volume grew about 8.8% and ground 6.9%; documents share was 70% plus and e-commerce share close to 12-13%.
13. Drone delivery pilots - commercial viability in 3-5 years Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management said it would continue drone delivery pilots, with commercial viability "maybe in three, four, and five years' time"; by Q2 FY24 the project was "alive and kicking". Drone deliveries launched in collaboration with a leading drone technology company in Q1 FY25, and drones are operational in Gurugram.
14. FY23 top-line growth - high double digit Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management said FY2023 should see "a high-double digit kind of top line growth". FY23 revenue was ₹5,172 crore, growth of 17.27%, high double digit as stated.
15. E-commerce growth - at least three to four years of very high growth Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management expected "at least three to four years" of very high e-commerce growth, citing India's \~4% online retail spend vs 17%-18% in developed countries. E-commerce held \~30% of revenue in FY24 and around 30%-31% in Q3 FY26, with B2C growth "close to about 17 plus percent" in Q2 FY26.
16. Aircraft investment - ₹300-350 crore Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management stated the two aircraft purchase would involve "roughly... anywhere between Rs.300 Crores to Rs.350 Crores kind of investment". At the Q1 FY24 call, investment in the owned aircraft was about Rs. 450 crores, above the guided range.
17. Two Boeing 737-800 freighters - delivery in H2 FY23, break-even in 2-3 quarters Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management announced two Boeing 737-800 freighters adding roughly 15%-20% capacity, with delivery "towards the latter part of the year" and break-even "may be around two to three quarters or so" after induction. The aircraft were inducted during FY24 and reached break-even by Q2 FY25, roughly 5-6 quarters after induction, hitting 85%-90% utilization by Q4 FY25.
18. Dividend - ₹60 per share for FY22 Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, the Board proposed a final dividend of Rs. 35, taking the full-year dividend with the Rs. 25 interim to Rs. 60 (600%). Total dividend (interim & final) of Rs. 60/- per share was paid for FY 2021-22.
19. Hub facilities upgrade - bigger space for larger surface tonnage Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management said hub facilities need bigger space for larger surface tonnage, with over "more than 0.3 crore" sq ft then and forward plans to follow. A big integrated facility with autosorter opened at Bijwasan in Q1 FY25, a Gurgaon-Pataudi hub launched in Q2 FY26, and 2 major hubs in North plus a couple of medium-sized hubs in East were added.
20. Capex plan - ₹150-200 crore range, updated plan to be announced Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management said the earlier capex plan was "roughly in the range of 150 crore to 200 crore", with an updated plan to be announced; later guidance moved to ₹250-odd crores for FY25 and INR100-150 crores excluding leases. FY26 standalone capex was INR 120 crores, within the final range, but the FY25 budget of 127.4 crore was under-spent at 62.2 crore in nine months.
21. Interest costs - very low on consol basis, debt free Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management committed that interest costs on consol basis would be very low since all debts were paid off, with only Ind AS 116 in finance costs "unless we start borrowing again"; the Aviation Rs.200 Crores borrowing was to be repaid towards end FY23. As on 31 March 2026 the company had no outstanding external borrowings and ₹112.16 crore of liquid assets, and is described as "Zero Debt".
22. Realization growth - 4 to 5% every year Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management expected "4 to 5% kind of realization every year" to continue. Q1 FY25 GPI contributed roughly 3.9%-4% additional revenue, Q4 FY26 realization was "more than 4%", and Q1 FY27 reiterated the "close to 4% to 5%" target.
23. Ground (Road Express) volume growth - high double digit going forward Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided ground volume growth of "high double digit" going forward, with FY23 also expected at "high double-digit" levels. Surface grew around 14% plus through FY25, but FY26 ground volume growth was 6.9% against air's 8.8%, and Q1 FY27 ground grew \~9%.
24. ERP hardware infrastructure - capacity for next three years Delivered - The FY21 annual report committed that ERP systems hardware infrastructure would be upgraded at the data centre and Discovery Resource site to cater to capacity for the next three years. The FY22 report confirmed the ERP hardware infrastructure upgrade at the main data centre and disaster recovery site was completed to cater to capacity for the next three years.
25. GPI effective January 1, 2024 - average shipment price increase of 9.6% Delivered - The General Price Increase effective January 1, 2024 announced an average shipment price increase of 9.6% versus 2023, dependent on shipping profile. At the Q4 FY24 call the annual increase was taken across all products, successful in some geographies and not others, and the Q1 FY25 GPI contributed roughly 3.9%-4% additional revenue.