1. FY26 debt-to-EBITDA near 2.5x Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided they were targeting debt-to-EBITDA near 2.5. FY26 debt was ₹800 cr and EBITDA ₹161 cr, yielding a ratio of \~4.97x, far from the 2.5x target (SQL).
2. No major capex, focus on debt reduction for FY25/FY26 On track - At Q3 FY24, management guided no further capex until business performance improves, with all cash flows going to debt repayment; at Q4 FY24, no new capex beyond maintenance for two years; at Q4 FY25, no major capex with FY26 focused on reducing long-term debt; at Q1 FY26, no major capex targeted for a couple of years. CWIP remained stable at ₹67.74 cr in FY24, ₹60.77 cr in FY25, and ₹66.86 cr in FY26, with no major new capex project announced (SQL).
3. Vatva non-core asset sale, \~₹100 cr valuation, completion in 1-1.5 years from Q3 FY24 Missed - At Q3 FY24, management guided the Vatva non-core asset sale (valuation \~₹100 cr, land value ₹60-70 cr) was under review and expected to complete in one to one-and-a-half years; at Q1 FY26, they were targeting asset sales of Vatva plant and part of Punjab for debt repayment. The 1-1.5 year window from Q3 FY24 extended to mid-2025, and no disclosure of a completed Vatva asset sale is found in our record through FY26.
4. Punjab government incentive, ₹20 cr per annum, approval within 2-3 months from Q4 FY24 Partial - At Q4 FY24, the CFO guided Punjab government incentives of \~₹20 cr per annum were expected to be approved within 2-3 months; the amount was later revised to ₹45 cr initially plus \~₹20 cr annually for 7 years, with timing pushed to FY25 year-end and then Q1 FY26. FY26 revenue growth was led by recognition of the SGST incentive from the Government of Punjab, confirming the incentive began flowing, approximately one year later than the initial 2-3 month timeline.
5. Debt reduction, debt-free within 5 years, ₹100-120 cr repayment per year from FY24 Missed - At Q4 FY24, the CFO guided the company should become debt-free within 5 years, repaying ₹100-120 cr every year from a net debt base of \~₹830 cr at March 2024; at Q3 FY25, \~₹200 cr reduction was targeted by March 2026; at Q4 FY25, FY26 scheduled repayment was \~₹120 cr plus ₹20 cr from land sale. Debt at FY26 stood at ₹800 cr, a reduction of only \~₹30 cr over two years, well below the ₹100-120 cr annual target (SQL).
6. Peak debt, ₹850-900 cr by end of capex projects Partial - At Q3 FY22, management guided peak debt by the end of capex projects would be about ₹500 cr term debt plus \~₹350 cr working capital, totaling ₹850-900 cr; the estimate was later revised to ₹900-1,000 cr and then ₹800-850 cr. Net debt at FY24 was \~₹830 cr, which management stated was the peak, and debt at FY26 was ₹800 cr with D/E of 0.69 - below the original ₹850-900 cr guided peak.
7. Revenue target, ₹2,500-2,800 cr by FY24/FY25 Partial - At Q3 FY22, management guided FY23 revenue of \~₹2,500 cr and FY25 revenue as high as ₹2,800 cr; the target was progressively reduced to ₹1,700-1,800 cr for FY25, then ₹1,900 cr for FY26, and ₹2,000-2,100 cr for FY27. FY25 revenue was ₹1,757 cr, missing the original ₹2,500-2,800 cr target; FY26 revenue was ₹2,054 cr, exceeding the revised ₹1,900 cr target.
8. Overall EBITDA margin target, 17-18% by FY24/FY25 Missed - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided an overall target of 17-18% EBITDA margin; the target was progressively reduced to 15-16%, then 13-15%, then 12-13%, and finally 11-12% for FY26. FY26 consolidated OPM was 8.01% and the FY26 PPT showed consolidated EBITDA margin of 9.9%, well below even the most reduced target of 11-12% (SQL, D24 p.10).
9. Specialty business mix, 25-35% of total business in 2-3 years from Q1 FY22 Missed - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided that in about two to three years, the company was targeting around 25% to 35% of business from specialty chemicals. The FY26 revenue breakup shows Basic Chemicals 9%, Dyestuff 27%, Dye Intermediates 36%, Caustic Soda 17%, and Others 11%, with the specialty share not separately disclosed and the 11% Others category suggesting the 25-35% target was not reached by FY26.
10. Siel Chemical Complex (Rajpura) acquisition and upgradation, capacity to 99,000 MTPA, revenue ₹300 cr at 20-22% EBITDA, complete by Q3 FY23 Partial - At the Q3 FY21 call, management committed to upgrading the Siel Chemical Complex to 99,000 MTPA caustic soda capacity, generating \~₹300 cr additional revenue at 20-22% EBITDA margins, with completion in around five quarters; the deadline was later refined to Q3 FY23 and the revenue target revised to ₹325 cr. The technology upgradation was completed and inaugurated in October 2022, with Chlor-Alkali revenue reaching ₹327 cr in FY23 and ₹335 cr in FY25, meeting the revenue target; the 20-22% EBITDA margin target is not verifiable from available segment data.
11. Saykha project funding, internal accruals ₹100 cr/year, debt-equity \~0.25 at end Partial - At the Q2 FY21 call, management projected using internal accruals of ₹100 cr per year for the Saykha project, with debt-equity at project end of \~0.25. By Q3 FY23, internal accruals used were \~₹80 cr, and by Q3 FY25, 70% of the benzene project was funded through debt, with the project still ongoing and no final project-end debt-equity ratio yet reported.
12. Dahej/Saykha Greenfield project, Benzene downstream + Sulphuric Acid, complete by Q3 FY23, revenue ₹550 cr at 15-18% EBITDA Partial - At the Q2 FY21 call, management committed to starting the Saykha GIDC project by January 2021 with completion by September 2022, peak revenue \~₹400 cr at 16-18% EBITDA; the deadline was revised to Q3 FY23, then Q1 FY24, with revenue revised to \~₹550 cr at 15-18% EBITDA and later reduced to \~₹300-320 cr at 12-14% EBITDA, while sulphuric acid was put on hold. The benzene downstream plant was commissioned on 29 December 2023, approximately two quarters late versus the last explicit deadline of Q1 FY24; in FY26, the unit achieved satisfactory production levels but the revised \~₹300 cr revenue target at full utilization has not yet been reached, and sulphuric acid remains on hold.
13. Reach earlier peak financial performance within 12-18 months from Q1 FY21 Delivered - At the Q1 FY21 call, management stated the company would reach its earlier achieved peak financial performance once utilization levels improved across all plants in the coming 12 to 18 months. FY22 consolidated revenue of ₹2,068 cr, EBITDA of ₹237 cr, and PAT of ₹99 cr all represented record levels, exceeding the prior peak and achieved within approximately 18-21 months of the statement.
14. VS plant at SPS, start production once demand improves Delivered - At the Q1 FY21 call, management committed to start the VS plant at SPS once the demand scenario improves; the timeline was subsequently refined to Q1 FY22, then within one or two months from Q1 FY22, and finally by December end 2021. The Vinyl Sulphone capacity expansion to 6,000 MTPA at SPS Processors was commercialized in the last week prior to 11 February 2022, meeting the December end 2021 deadline within the same quarter.