1. PVC-VCM spread of \~$160 expected from September 2026 on replacement basis Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call (August 7, 2026), management guided that once high-cost VCM inventory washed out by end-August, replacement-basis spreads of \~$160 would be realized from September. Q1 FY27 itself showed a negative spread, with VCM landing \~$1,000-plus per ton against realizations of \~$700-$750; the outcome for the September-quarter horizon is not yet reported.
2. 7.5% customs duty back in the system by end of June 2026 Delivered - At the Q4 FY26 call, management hoped the 7.5% customs duty comes back by end of June 2026, adding another $60-$70 to pricing. On Paste PVC the duty, waived from 1 April to 30 June and extended to 15 July 2026, was reinstated with effect from 16 July 2026.
3. MPB-4 civil works completed by Q1 FY27 Pending - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided that civil works for MPB-4 would be completed in Q1 of FY27, with the Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27 PPTs moving the target to Q2 FY27. No MPB-4 civil works completion disclosure appears in the Q1 FY27 record.
4. R32 quota allotment for the resized 14,000-ton volume Pending - At the Q3 FY26 call, management expressed confidence of getting the R32 quota for the resized 14,000-ton volume, and at Q4 FY26 said the baseline survey period runs till end of 2026. No quota allotment has been disclosed as of Q1 FY27.
5. R32 first full-year volume of \~11,000 tons, revenue ₹550-600 crore Pending - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided R32 first full-year volume of around 11,000 tons with annual revenue of ₹550 crore, later revised to around ₹600 crore. No R32 sales have occurred yet as of Q1 FY27, with the plant not yet at full capacity.
6. ₹150 crore inventory write-down reversed in FY27 Partial - At the Q4 FY26 call, the CFO expected the ₹150 crore inventory write-down to be reversed in the current financial year, and at Q1 FY27 committed net provisions of \~₹90 crore (CCVL) and ₹30 crore (Chemplast) would reverse during the quarter. The ₹150 crore provision was fully reversed in Q1 FY27, but high-cost inventory left a net carried provision of \~₹120 crore.
7. Paste PVC debottlenecking of 7,000 tons commissioned in October 2026 Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management reiterated the 7,000-ton Paste PVC debottlenecking at Cuddalore "remains on track for commissioning in October '26", after the FY26 AR flagged an additional 6 KT target. No commissioning disclosure has appeared as of Q1 FY27.
8. Suspension PVC at PBT breakeven in February-March 2026 Missed - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided Suspension PVC to PBT breakeven at current prices in February and March, aided by price increases and rollback of December discount schemes. Q4 FY26 showed spreads neutral only on a replacement-cost basis, and the Q1 FY27 PVC-VCM spread was negative.
9. MIP traction on PVC imports within a couple of months Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management said the MIP process was at least halfway through and "we should see some traction on that in a couple of months". By Q1 FY27, a MIP on low-price Suspension PVC imports was imposed for the next 6 months, acting as a floor below current market prices.
10. Caustic soda production to normalize by March 2026 Partial - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided that caustic soda production would normalize by March 2026. Q4 FY26 volumes improved sequentially on better sales and inventory liquidation at Karaikal, but remained lower year-on-year due to reduced Mettur production from the membrane change; productivity improved only post-changeover in Q1 FY27.
11. R32 capacity of 14 ktpa by end of calendar 2026 On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management announced the greenfield R32 project with investment around ₹340 crore, expected completion by October '26, later phased across swing and 2 kt plants, confirmed as calendar year at Q4 FY26 and as end-FY27 at Q1 FY27. Commercial production commenced in May 2026 from the 2 kt swing plant at Mettur, with remaining capacity under commissioning.
12. ADD notification on EU paste PVC imports in H1 FY27 Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected "some finality in the coming months" on the EU investigation, guiding final DGTR findings by end of Q4 FY26 and ADD notification during H1 FY27. In Q1 FY27 the Ministry of Finance allowed the recommendation to lapse, and Chemplast obtained a favorable mandamus order directing provisional assessment.
13. Debt has peaked; gearing to fall in coming quarters Missed - At the Q2 FY26 call, the CFO said debt level has "sort of peaked now" and gearing was expected to come down in the coming quarters. Net debt instead rose from ₹1,117 crore in FY25 to ₹1,419 crore in FY26, with Q1 FY27 interest cost around ₹235 crore annually.
14. CMCD self-sustaining in operating cash flow by FY27-28 Pending - At the Q2 FY26 call, management expected CMCD to become self-sustaining in operating cash flow, able to fund future capex, somewhere in the '27-'28 period when revenue crosses ₹1,000-1,200 crore. No disclosure on CMCD operating cash flow self-sustainability appears in the record yet.
15. 3-4 CMC new product commercializations in FY26 Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management planned around 3 to 4 CMC new product commercializations in FY26. Three molecules were commercialized by Q2 FY26 with one more anticipated, and FY26 closed with 17 commercialized products.
16. Green power PPA covering 35-40% of power needs, saving ₹50-60 crore Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management stated the green power PPA covers 35% to 40% of power requirement with estimated savings of ₹50-60 crore, set for commissioning in 2025-26. In FY26 the Group Captive PPA contributed over 35% of energy needs from renewables, delivering savings of approximately ₹50 to ₹60 crore.
17. Operating profits to materially improve from fiscal 2027 Missed - CRISIL expected operating profits to materially improve from fiscal 2027 with full benefit of ADD. Q1 FY27 instead showed an EBITDA loss of ₹115 crore, with no material improvement observed.
18. Debt levels of ₹1,800-1,900 crore by end of fiscal 2026 Delivered - CRISIL expected debt levels at ₹1,800-1,900 crore by end of fiscal 2026. FY26 net debt was ₹1,419 crore, below the guided range.
19. Interest cover of 1.1-1.2 times in fiscal 2026 Missed - CRISIL expected interest cover at 1.1-1.2 times in fiscal 2026. FY25 interest cover was \~0.95x, and coverage stood at -1.20x as of the latest reported quarter.
20. CSL net debt/EBITDA of 4-4.5 times in fiscal 2026 Missed - CRISIL expected CSL net debt/EBITDA at 4-4.5 times in fiscal 2026. FY26 net debt of ₹1,419 crore against EBITDA of ₹198 crore implies \~7.2x.
21. CMCD revenue of ₹1,000 crore, by FY28 after deferrals On track - At the Q4 FY23 call, management targeted steady-state top line of around ₹1,000 crore from custom manufactured chemicals in 3 to 4 years, raised to surpassing ₹1,000 crore by FY27, then reset to "₹1,000 crores by FY '28" at Q3 FY26, reiterated at Q1 FY27. FY25 CMC revenue surpassed ₹500 crore, and CMCD utilization excluding just-commissioned Phase 3 is close to 60% to 70%.
22. Suspension PVC anti-dumping duty implemented Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management expected the DGTR recommendation to be notified "any time", later hoping for a decision by Q3 FY25 and ADD in place by Q3 FY26. Final findings were notified in August 2025 but the Ministry did not accept them and the QCO was rescinded, with a MIP at USD 766/MT introduced in Q1 FY27.
23. CMC steady-state EBITDA margins of 23-25% On track - At the Q4 FY24 call, the CFO stated the CMC business at steady state should report EBITDA margins of 23% to 25%, in line with industry agrochemical norms, reiterated at Q3 FY25 and Q2 FY26. At Q1 FY27 the CFO said CMCD is reaching a stage where it can "get to the industry levels of returns… I think we will get there this year".
24. Other Chemicals stabilizing over three to four quarters Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected the Other Chemicals business - caustic soda, chloromethanes, hydrogen peroxide, refrigerant gas - to stabilize over the next three to four quarters. FY25 saw chloromethanes prices recover well and VAC revenue reach ₹624 crore, +24% YoY, but Q1 FY26 and Q2 FY26 VAC revenue declined 3% and 12% YoY.
25. CMC Phase 3 of MPB3 completed by Q3 FY26 Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected project activities for Phase 3 of MPB3 to be completed by Q3 of FY26, later moved to Q4 FY26 and then Q1 FY27. MPB 3 Phase 3 and pilot Phase 3 were commissioned during Q1 FY27, with commercial production commencing May 2026.
26. Paste PVC ramp-up to 100% by end of Q1 FY25 Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected to ramp the newly commissioned 41,000-ton Paste PVC plant to 100% operating rate by the end of Q1 FY25, with full utilization later pushed to "by March or April" and \~10 kt per quarter thereafter. Full operating capacity was confirmed only in Q1 FY26, with sustained 100% utilization through FY26.
27. Paste PVC ADD converted to final finding within months Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management expected the Paste PVC provisional anti-dumping duty to be converted into a final finding "possibly in the next couple of months", with implementation "any time now" at Q3 FY25. ADD was imposed in March 2025 on imports from China, Korea, Malaysia, Norway, Taiwan and Thailand for 5 years, with final duties higher than provisional.
28. Custom manufacturing Phase 2 commissioned by end of FY24 Partial - At the Q3 FY23 call, management targeted commissioning of phase two of the custom manufacturing multipurpose facility by end of FY2024, with the timeline later moved to Q1 FY25, end of Q2 FY25 and Q3 FY25. Phase 2 was commissioned in December 2024 in Q3 FY25, with commercial production commenced.
29. CMC revenue growth of 20-25% in FY24 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management anticipated 10% to 15% revenue growth in Custom Manufacturing in FY24, revised upward at Q1 FY24 to over 25% and tracked at 20-25% by Q2 FY24, with Q3 FY24 flagging moderation on order deferments. FY24 CMC revenue was ₹284 crore, lower by around 13% versus FY23.
30. Next CMC block capex triggered at 60% visibility Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, the CFO said once visibility reaches around 60% for the new custom manufacturing block, the company would immediately announce the next block capex, reiterated at Q3 FY24 and Q1 FY26. Phase 3 investment was triggered in Q1 FY25 and Phase 4 civil works were initiated.
31. Custom manufacturing Phase 1 commissioned by H1 FY24 Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management said detailed engineering was in progress for the first phase of the custom manufacturing expansion, slated at Q4 FY22 for completion by Q1 FY24 and later reaffirmed for H1 FY24 and Q2 FY24 "as originally scheduled". Phase 1 was commissioned in September 2023 with investment of around ₹300 crore.
32. Combined revenue potential of \~₹800 crore from 2 CMC LOIs Pending - At the Q4 FY23 call, management stated the combined revenue potential of the 2 LOIs over the contract period is around ₹800 crore, later revised to \~₹1,200 crore for three LOIs and ₹1,500-1,700 crore overall for four LOIs. Six LOIs were signed by Q2 FY25, but no cumulative revenue realization against the LOI potential has been disclosed.
33. Paste PVC expansion of 41,000 tpa on stream in FY24 Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided the 35,000 tpa specialty paste PVC expansion to come up by FY24 at Cuddalore, commissioning "around October 2023", reiterated as 41,000 tons in FY2024 and H2 FY24. It was commissioned in Q4 FY24 in February 2024, taking paste PVC capacity to 107,000 tpa, and reached 100% utilization through FY26.
34. Custom manufacturing revenue growth of \~30% in FY23 Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management expected the custom manufacturing business to grow at around 30% on the top-line in FY23, revised up from 15%, and reiterated "We will definitely achieve that 30% growth this year". FY23 CMC revenue grew 26% YoY to around ₹325 crore, which management characterized as "around the same 30% level".
35. Suspension PVC de-bottlenecking of 10% fully online by Q1 FY23 Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided a 10% suspension PVC capacity de-bottlenecking expected fully online by Q1 FY23, reiterated as the full 30,000-ton impact by end of Q1 FY23. It was completed ahead of schedule by end of May 2022, raising capacity to 331,000 tpa, at a capex of ₹23.5 crore.
36. CCVL revenue decline of 15-17% in fiscal 2023 Delivered - CRISIL expected CSL revenue to decline 15-17% in fiscal 2023. FY23 revenue declined 16.14% to ₹4,941 crore, within the guided range.
37. CCVL operating margin of 5-5.5% in fiscal 2023 Missed - CRISIL expected CCVL operating margin to decline to 5-5.5% in fiscal 2023. The FY23 S-PVC segment PBIT margin was 1.18%, well below the guided floor.
38. CCVL sales volume growth of 7% in fiscal 2023 Delivered - CRISIL expected CCVL sales volumes to grow 7% in fiscal 2023. FY23 S-PVC volumes grew 9% versus FY22, exceeding the guided growth.
39. CCVL revenue decline of \~21% in fiscal 2023 Delivered - CRISIL expected CCVL revenues to decline \~21% in fiscal 2023, later cited at 23%. FY23 S-PVC segment revenue fell from ₹3,883 crore to ₹3,000 crore, a decline of \~23%, close to the expectation.
40. Rangebound revenue in FY23-FY24 Missed - Ind-Ra expected rangebound revenue in FY23-FY24. Revenue instead declined 16% to ₹4,941 crore in FY23 and 21% to ₹3,923 crore in FY24.
41. Revenue growth of 40-50% YoY in FY22 Delivered - Ind-Ra expected 40%-50% YoY revenue growth in FY22. FY22 revenue grew 55% to ₹5,892 crore, exceeding the guided range.
42. Consolidated interest coverage above 5.0x in FY23 Missed - Ind-Ra expected consolidated interest coverage to improve to above 5.0x in FY23. FY23 EBITDA interest coverage was 3x, below the target.
43. Capex of ₹1,100 crore for capacity expansion Delivered - CRISIL noted planned capex of ₹1,100 crore for capacity expansion - ₹360 crore paste PVC plus ₹680 crore custom manufacturing - funded by debt of ₹810 crore and accruals. Consolidated capex of around ₹1,150 crore was incurred over fiscals 2023 and 2024 towards paste PVC and CMCD expansion.
44. Interest coverage above 3x in the medium term Missed - CRISIL expected interest coverage to remain above 3x in the medium term. FY25 interest cover was \~0.95x, and coverage stood at -1.20x as of the latest reported quarter.
45. Debt/EBITDA recovering below 2x in the medium term Missed - CRISIL expected Debt/EBITDA to recover to below 2x in the medium term despite additional capex-related debt. Net debt/EBITDA was \~4.83x in FY25, and FY26 net debt of ₹1,419 crore against EBITDA of ₹198 crore implies \~7.2x.
46. Operating profitability recovering above 10% over the medium term Pending - CRISIL expected operating profitability to recover above 10% over the medium term. FY26 OPM was 4.69% and Q1 FY27 OPM was -10.19%, though Q4 FY26 briefly reached 15.48%; with the medium-term horizon from the December 2024 rationale not yet elapsed, the outcome remains open.
47. Operating profitability of 7-8% for fiscal 2025 Missed - CRISIL expected operating profitability at 7-8% for fiscal 2025. FY25 OPM was 5.03%, below the 7% floor of the guided range.
48. CSL revenue growth of 12-15% in fiscal 2025 Missed - CRISIL expected CSL revenues to grow 12-15% in fiscal 2025. FY25 revenue grew 10.78% to ₹4,346 crore, below the 12% floor of the guided range.