Key Takeaways
- Profit growth held up despite pockets of stress: PBT rose 20% YoY to Rs. 1,561 crores, with NIM expanding 40 bps to 7.9%, while CSEL partnership runoff and an extended monsoon created asset-quality friction.
- CSEL credit losses have peaked, per management: The unsecured business loan book, hurt by multi-lender leverage and a deliberate exit from fintech partnerships, saw Stage-3 additions decelerate QoQ and early defaults fall for two straight quarters.
- The monsoon bruised vehicle finance, recovery expected in Q3: Stage-2 was flat QoQ, but Stage-3 absolute increase improved sequentially; management sees capacity utilization lifting from December as the Kharif crop hits the ground.
- Gold loans launched, disbursement growth target trimmed: The new gold business disbursed Rs. 500 crores in its first quarter, while full-year disbursement growth may land "a bit shy" of the original 10% target, though AUM growth of 20% is not at risk.
- What to watch next quarter: Whether the October momentum sustains through Q3, the pace of CSEL Stage-2 stabilization, and how the extended monsoon’s harvest impact plays out in vehicle-finance delinquencies.
CSEL Stress & the Partnership Exit
- Business loans, not geography, drove the pain: Leverage was the core problem: customers took 2–3 loans simultaneously via DSAs, a risk the supply-side rush masked until it was too late. The issue spans all ticket sizes and markets.
- Partnership runoff magnified the optics: The book being run down carries higher NCL in percentage terms, inflating the overall CSEL NCL figure even as the direct book improves. Early defaults and non-starters have already fallen for two consecutive quarters.
- Underwriting tightened, control reclaimed: Origination, underwriting and collections are being pulled fully in-house after partner processes proved too different. Management now has a "strong preference" for total control.
- Growth turns positive from Q4: The base effect of stopping partnership disbursements lifts from Q4 onward, and the direct loan and personal loan books are already improving. Overall CSEL AUM growth should start kicking up from Q3.
Vellayan Subbiah: "I didn't think we estimated correctly the implications of the massive supply side rush. So, what started happening is that there were a lot of customers that started getting loans from multiple people. And that massive supply side rush is something that should have been a significant warning signal for us, where we tightened underwriting much quicker. And that is perhaps in hindsight, a mistake, because we didn't do that quickly enough, right and we are paying the price for that now."
Vehicle Finance & the Monsoon Overhang
- Monsoon hit commercial vehicles and construction equipment: Extended rains depressed capacity utilization for CV and CE operators, causing some increase in Stage-3. Stage-2, however, was flat QoQ, and the absolute Stage-3 increase improved from Q1 to Q2 versus the Q4-to-Q1 jump.
- Recovery has a sequence: Small and light commercial vehicles recover first, then heavy commercial vehicles. HCV growth is "sometime away" but improvement has started; buses are driving current HCV numbers, and Chola does not participate in HCV buses.
- Ground activity turned in late September: Capacity utilization improved through September-end and continued into October. December through April–June is the seasonal peak, and the Kharif crop arriving from November should further lift retail customers' repayment capacity.
- Tractor book reset: A conscious call to shrink new tractor disbursements followed a supply-side rush that compressed yields and inflated dealer payouts. The vertical has been revamped top to bottom, and new disbursements will restart from here.
- GST cut helps the core customer: Lower vehicle cost, reduced down payment and falling interest rates improve the retail buyer's capacity to utilize the vehicle and pay on time. Those buyers are Chola's core customer.
Ravindra Kundu: "If the consumption goes up, the industrial production goes up. Agriculture growth kicks in, the retail customer buys the vehicle and if the GST cut reduces the cost of vehicle, also the cost of the down payment and also the interest rate has come down, it will improve their capacity to utilize the vehicle and pay it in time. So, therefore, those people will come forward and they are the core customer of Chola and therefore, we are likely to benefit."
Asset Quality & Credit Cost
| Metric | Trend | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Company-level credit cost | ▼ Improved 10 bps QoQ | Sequential improvement across segments other than CSEL drove the move. |
| CSEL Stage-3 additions | ▼ Decelerating | Net increase in Stage-3 fell QoQ; Stage-2 is stabilizing. Management expects improvement over the next six months. |
| Vehicle finance Stage-2 | ▬ Flat QoQ | Held steady despite monsoon pressure. |
| Vehicle finance Stage-3 | ▲ Increased, but slower | Absolute increase improved from Q1 to Q2 versus the prior sequential period. |
| Home loans GS3 | ▲ Rose on non-SARFAESI migration | Affordable housing assets not covered by SARFAESI take longer to resolve; cases moving from Stage-2 to Stage-3 automatically lower provision coverage because they are new NPAs. |
| Write-offs | ▲ Rs. 639 cr vs Rs. 514 cr QoQ | Increase driven by lower ECL provision on reduced incremental volume, not by fresh stress. |
- NCL improved to 1.7% from 1.8% in Q1, with full-year expectation closer to 1.6%. Further improvement is expected in Q3 and Q4.
- Credit cost at 1.8% now: coming down to 1.6% would be an achievement; Q3 and Q4 will definitely improve over Q2, but the magnitude depends on how Q3 plays out.
NIM, Margins & the Funding Tailwind
- NIM jumped 40 bps QoQ to 7.9%: another 10–15 bps improvement is expected in H2.
- Cost of funds still has room to fall: banks have not fully passed through MCLR cuts, and the CCD conversion (first Rs. 300 crores done in October, Rs. 1,700 crores remaining over the next three quarters) will deliver a small incremental benefit spread across the period.
- OPEX held at 3.1% despite a 10% overall increase from salary increments, incentive payments and investment in new businesses like gold and consumer durables. As gold scales, the operating-expense ratio should fall further.
- PLR raised 15 bps on LAP and passed through to customers.
Segment Growth & Strategic Shifts
| Segment | AUM Growth (YoY) | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Vehicle finance | ▲ 17% | M&HCV market share gained where competitor participation is lower; Maruti business at all-time high, now in top 4 on financial metrics. |
| LAP | ▲ 33% | Disbursement growth moderated to 14% H1-on-H1 from a higher base; BT-in exceeds BT-out. |
| Home loans | ▲ 28% | Disbursements negative due to e-Khata registration delays in Karnataka and procedural changes in a few key markets; AUM growth target of 30% maintained. |
| SME | ▲ 28% | Increased focus on business loans and equipment financing. |
| CSEL | ▼ Degrowth | Partnership disbursements stopped; direct and personal loan books improving; growth turns positive from Q4. |
| Gold (new) | New launch | Rs. 500 crores disbursed in Q2; marginal yields at origination slightly better than incumbent players; focus on digital access and quick disbursement. |
- SBPL yields normalizing: the book is three years old, so average yields that looked high initially are now settling to normal levels; marginal yields and the fixed-rate product structure have remained consistent.
- SBPL quality comfort: the business has not done secured personal loans, only business loans, and management is comfortable maintaining parity on net credit cost and pre-tax ROA.
- Mortgage vs non-mortgage trajectory: mortgage businesses may grow at 30%, non-mortgage at 20%, with an effort to beat 20%.
Vellayan Subbiah: "I think we are better off when we are fully in control of our process, right. And I think our learnings was that some of the partner processes were very different. And so I would say that there is a strong preference to keep total control over origination, underwriting and collections, in-house versus working on the partnership side."
Guidance & Commitments
| Commitment | Specifics | Timeline |
|---|---|---|
| NIM improvement | Another 10–15 bps expansion | H2 FY26 |
| CSEL credit cost | Peaked; moderation expected | Next 6 months |
| Company-level NCL | Closer to 1.6% | Full-year FY26 |
| AUM growth | 20% (not at risk) | FY26 |
| Disbursement growth | May be a bit shy of 10% target | FY26 |
| Home loan AUM growth | Steady 30% | Maintained |
| SBPL growth rate | More than 30% over longer term; H1 rate maintained in H2 | H2 FY26 and beyond |
| Mortgage vs non-mortgage growth | Mortgage ~30%, non-mortgage ~20% (try to beat) | Ongoing |
| Credit cost | 1.8% currently; 1.6% would be an achievement; Q3 and Q4 will improve over Q2 | FY26 |
| CCD conversion | Balance Rs. 1,700 crores converted; small funding benefit | Next 3 quarters |
Key Metrics
| Metric | Q2 FY26 |
|---|---|
| Aggregate disbursements | ₹24,442 cr |
| AUM | ₹2,14,906 cr, +21% YoY |
| Vehicle finance AUM growth | +17% YoY |
| LAP AUM growth | +33% YoY |
| Home loans AUM growth | +28% YoY; disbursements continued to be negative |
| SME AUM growth | +28% YoY |
| NIM | 7.9%, improved from 7.5% during the quarter; another 10-15 bps improvement expected in H2 |
| PBT | ₹1,561 cr, +20% YoY |
| PBT ROA | 3%, similar to Q1 FY26 |
| ROE | 18.11% for Q2; 18.47% for H1 |
| Credit cost ratio | improved 10 bps QoQ |
| Net credit loss (NCL) | 1.7%, improved from 1.8% in Q1; full-year expectation closer to 1.6% |
| Net slippage | 2.5%, improved from 2.8% in Q1 |
| Vehicle finance net Stage-3 | 2.24% |
| Capital adequacy | 20% as of September 2025; Tier-1 at 14.59% |
| Total liquid assets | ₹17,516 cr, including G-Secs and T-bills |
| Write-offs | ₹639 cr in Q2; ₹514 cr in Q1 |
| CSEL as share of overall AUM | 7-8%; expected to remain at that level |
| Gold business disbursements | ₹500 cr in the quarter |
| LAP PLR change | +15 bps, passed on to customers |
| SBPL growth | +57% |
| Mortgage business growth expectation | ~30%; non-mortgage at ~20% |