• Indian bond yields: The 10-year government bond yield remains range-bound between 6.65% and 6.75%, supported by strong demand from long-term institutional investors and around ₹60,000 crore in RBI open market operations.
• Interest rate trajectory: India's rate cut cycle is effectively over, with the OIS curve rising to approximately 6.50 levels as the market begins pricing in potential rate hikes later this year or next year.
• Crude oil outlook: Oil prices are projected to settle around $85 to $90 over the next two to three months due to delayed production line recoveries, continuing to exert pressure on the rupee and fixed-income markets.
• Global monetary policy: US 10-year yields remain benign between 4% and 4.40%, with zero probability of an immediate Federal Reserve rate cut as global central banks broadly remain in pause mode.
• Geopolitical risk pricing: Markets have largely priced in the worst of the conflict's negative news, though a prolonged war presents continued operational risks to domestic LPG supplies and small industries.