1. Promoter holding maintained up to regulatory requirement Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 PPT, parent CreditAccess India B.V. (66.66%) committed to holding up to the regulatory requirement, reiterated at Q4 FY25, Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27 PPTs. Promoter holding was 66.77% at June 2023, 66.43% at FY25, 66.37% at FY26 and 66.21% at June 2026.
2. MD & CEO transition - Hebbar retires, Narayanan appointed for five years Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management announced Udaya Kumar Hebbar would retire as MD on 25th June 2025 and Ganesh Narayanan be appointed MD & CEO for five years from 26th June 2025. Ganesh Narayanan was serving as MD & CEO at Q1 FY26.
3. INR 25,000 crore loan portfolio surpassed during 25th year Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 announcement, management aimed to soon surpass the INR 25,000 crore loan portfolio mark during the 25th year of operations. Q4 FY24 GLP was INR 26,714 crore, crossing INR 25,000 crore AUM in the 25th year.
4. Grameen Pay scale-up across all 1,700+ MFI branches in FY24 Partial - At the FY23 annual report, management planned Grameen Pay (AEPS cash withdrawals) scale-up in FY24 across all 1,700+ MFI branches after a FY23 pilot. FY24 AEPS cash withdrawals reached ₹105.51 crore, first among MFIs, but coverage of all 1,700+ branches was not confirmed.
5. FY27 guidance - AUM growth 20-25%, NIM 12.8-13.2%, C/I 33-35%, credit cost 3.0-4.0%, ROA 4.0-4.8%, ROE 16-20% On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided FY27: AUM growth 20.0-25.0%, NIM 12.8-13.2%, C/I 33.0-35.0%, credit cost 3.0-4.0%, ROA 4.0-4.8%, ROE 16.0-20.0%. Q1 FY27 delivered AUM growth 16.4%, NIM 14.4%, C/I 29.3%, credit cost 0.72% non-annualized, ROA 5.9% and ROE 24.4%.
6. FY23 cost of borrowing - 9.3% to 9.4% Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided average FY23 cost of borrowing to remain in the 9.3%-9.4% range on a consolidated basis. Quarterly prints were 9.2% in Q2 FY23, 9.6% in Q3 FY23 and 9.5% in Q4 FY23, about 9.4-9.5% for the year.
7. Grameen Mahi app to evolve into unified cashless collection ecosystem On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management expected the Grameen Mahi app to evolve into an anchor for instant loan eligibility checks, small ticket loans, lead generation and a unified cashless collection ecosystem. At Q1 FY27 the app had onboarded 4.0 lakh customers with a 15.3 lakh active base (34.5% of borrowers) and digital collections rose to 24.2% of total.
8. Mortgage sourcing mix - 55-60% internal customers Delivered - At the Q1 FY27 call, management expected the mortgage sourcing mix to be range bound between 55-60% internal customers. Q1 FY27 mortgage sourcing was 55% internal and 45% external, within the guided range.
9. Retail finance mix - 50-50 secured/unsecured over medium term On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided the retail finance mix (then \~70-75% unsecured) to reach around 50-50 over the medium term, earlier framed at Q4 FY25 as a 2-3 year move. Q1 FY27 mix was 91% unsecured (IBL+OLL), SBL 5%, AHL 4%, two-wheeler 0.3%, a secured share of \~9%.
10. Project Shakti - 20-25% CAGR over 10 years, 23.5 crore households by 2030 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management set Project Shakti's long-term ambition: growth of at least 20% plus (20-25% CAGR over the next 10 years), targeting 23.5 crore low-to-middle income households by 2030. Q1 FY27 AUM grew 16.4% with ROA 5.9% and ROE 24.4%, and FY27 guidance of 20-25% growth is in place.
11. Mortgage book breakeven at INR 800-1,000 crore On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management expected mortgage breakeven as the standalone retail finance branch mortgage book nears INR 800 crore to INR 1,000 crore, refined at Q1 FY27 to \~INR 1,000 crore including HO allocation costs. Q1 FY27 mortgage (SBL+AHL) AUM was INR 568 crore, profitable excluding HO cost allocation.
12. FY26 opex/AUM below 5% by year-end Partial - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided that opex would drop in Q3 and Q4 and fall below 5% by end of the year, later refined at Q2 FY26 to \~4.8-4.9% for FY26. Q4 FY26 opex/AUM was 4.8%, but full-year FY26 came in at 5.1%; Q1 FY27 was 4.8%.
13. FY26 customer additions - \~1 lakh per month Partial - At the Q1 FY26 call, management said it was confident of adding roughly around 1 lakh customers on average per month for FY26, trending 70,000-75,000 at Q2 FY26. FY26 added 9.8 lakh new borrowers, averaging \~82,000 per month, with Q4 FY26 at 3.3 lakh (\~110,000/month).
14. Accelerated write-offs complete by end of Q1 FY26 Partial - At the Q3 FY25 call, management said accelerated write-offs would run over three quarters (Q3 FY25 to Q1 FY26), completing the accounting journey by end of Q1 FY26, later extended to September due to the Karnataka issue. Write-offs were INR 229 crore in Q3 FY25, INR 479 crore in Q4 FY25, INR 603 crore in Q1 FY26, INR 554.7 crore in Q2 FY26 and INR 181 crore in Q3 FY26.
15. FY26 guidance - AUM growth 14-18%, NIM 12.6-12.8%, C/I 32-34%, credit cost 5.5-6.0%, ROA 2.9-3.4%, ROE 11.8-13.3% Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided FY26: AUM growth 14-18%, NIM 12.6-12.8%, C/I 32-34%, credit cost 5.5-6.0%, ROA 2.9-3.4%, ROE 11.8-13.3%, with growth later assumed at the lower end. FY26 delivered AUM growth 14.0%, NIM 13.4%, C/I 32.5%, but credit cost 6.74% and ROA 2.7%, ROE 10.7%.
16. INR 50,000 crore AUM by FY28 On track - At the Q2 FY25 call, management reiterated the medium-term outlook of reaching INR 50,000 crore by FY28 through Microfinance and Retail Finance, clarified at Q1 FY27 as calendar year 2028 with "we remain fully committed". AUM was INR 25,948 crore at FY25, INR 29,590 crore at FY26 and INR 30,319 crore at Q1 FY27.
17. FY25 credit cost recognition - 70-75% of stress in FY25 Partial - At the Q2 FY25 call, management expected to recognize 70-75% of the current stress in FY25 instead of deferring it to next year. FY25 credit cost was 7.68%, but FY26 still carried 6.74% and Q1 FY26 was 2.2% non-annualized, showing stress continued beyond FY25.
18. FY25 delinquency stabilization - PAR0 stabilise from Q2 FY25 Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management expected overall delinquency to improve by Q2 FY25 with PAR0 stabilising from Q2 FY25, later pushed to Q3 FY25 and then Q4 FY25 or Q1 FY26. Delinquency peaked in October-November 2024, one quarter late, with PAR 90 at 3.28% in Q4 FY25.
19. District-based loan pricing implemented in Q2 FY25 Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management planned to implement district-based loan pricing in Q2 FY25 leveraging the business rule engine. The model was implemented by Q2 FY25 with yields largely stable Q2 vs Q1, and district-level differentiated underwriting was in place by Q3 FY25.
20. FY25 customer retention - 85% to 90% Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected to maintain customer retention between 85% and 90%. Retention was 88% in FY24, 87% in FY25, 84% in FY26 and 85% at Q1 FY27.
21. FY25 cost of borrowing stable at \~9.8% Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected FY25 cost of borrowing to remain stable at \~9.8%. Each quarter of FY25 printed 9.8%, and the full-year average was 9.8%.
22. Karnataka GLP share - 18-20% over next 3-4 years Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected Karnataka's GLP share to remain to a large extent between 18-20% over the next 3-4 years. Karnataka's share was 31.8% at Q4 FY24, 31.1% at Q4 FY25, 29.4% of AUM at Q4 FY26 and 29.3% at Q1 FY27.
23. Medium-term guidance FY25-FY28 - growth 20-25%, NIM 12.7-12.9%, C/I 30-31%, credit cost 2.2-2.4%, ROA 5.4-5.5%, ROE 23-23.5% Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided medium-term FY25-FY28: loan portfolio growth 20-25%, NIM 12.7-12.9%, cost-to-income 30-31%, credit cost 2.2-2.4%, ROA 5.4-5.5%, ROE 23.0-23.5%. FY25 delivered growth -2.9%, credit cost 7.68%, ROA 1.9%, ROE 7.7%, and FY26 growth 14.0%, credit cost 6.74%, ROA 2.7%, ROE 10.7%, with the targets replaced by lower FY26 and FY27 guidance.
24. FY25 guidance - GLP growth 23-24%, NIM 12.8-12.9%, C/I 30-31%, credit cost 2.2-2.4%, ROA 5.4-5.5%, ROE 23-23.5% Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25: loan portfolio growth 23-24%, NIM 12.8-12.9%, cost-to-income 30-31%, credit cost 2.2-2.4%, ROA 5.4-5.5%, ROE 23.0-23.5%, lowered twice to growth 7-8%, credit cost 6.7-6.9%, ROA 2.3-2.4%, ROE 9.5-10.0% by Q3 FY25. FY25 delivered GLP -2.9%, NIM 12.9%, cost-to-income 30.7%, credit cost 7.68%, ROA 1.9%, ROE 7.7%.
25. Customers per loan officer - 500 to 550 in 3-4 years Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management targeted 500 to 550 customers per loan officer in an ideal/stable state, achievable in 3 to 4 years for a branch. Borrowers per loan officer was \~375 at Q4 FY24, \~320 at Q1 FY26 and \~308 at Q1 FY27 (14,455 loan officers, 44.51 lakh borrowers).
26. Write-off recovery - 10% to 15% of \~INR 2,000 crore over 2-3 years Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management expected recovery of 10% to 15% (up to 18%) of the \~INR 2,000 crore write-off book over 2 to 3 years, approximately INR 50 to 100 crore per year. Recoveries were INR 58 crore in FY23, INR 47.7 crore in FY24, INR 29.0 crore in FY25, INR 48.9 crore in FY26 and INR 13.3 crore in Q1 FY27.
27. Affordable home loan pilot during FY24 Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided an affordable home loan pilot during FY24. The product was piloted, with FY24 retail finance AUM including affordable housing loans of ₹28.3 crore, growing to INR 244 crore of home loan AUM by Q4 FY26.
28. Capital raise - possibly after FY24, QIP-type Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management said a capital raise may be worked towards after the end of FY24, possibly a QIP-type issue, later pushed out repeatedly to "no raise for at least two to three years". No raise occurred through Q1 FY27; capital adequacy stood at 24.9% and net worth grew to INR 8,347 crore, 86% from internal accruals.
29. Promoter share sale - up to \~10% over medium term Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management said the promoter may consider bilateral share sales with selected high-quality long-term investors aggregating up to around 10% over the medium term. A 90 lakh share (5.7%) sale was consummated on 30th June 2023, taking promoter holding to 66.77%, with the broadening objective "largely achieved".
30. Long-term ROA - 4.5% to 4.75%, up to 5% Partial - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided long-term stable-business ROA of 4.5-4.75%, or even up to 5%, with ROE around 18-19% to 22-23%, later reframed at Q3 FY26 as cross-cycle ROA of 4% and at Q1 FY27 as 4.5%. FY24 ROA was 5.6%, but FY25 was 1.9%, FY26 2.7%, and cross-cycle FY17-FY26 ROA was 3.4% with ROE 13.9%.
31. FY23 ROE - 16% to 18% Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management reiterated FY23 guidance of 4.0-4.2% ROA and 16.0-18.0% ROE. FY23 ROE was 18.0%, with management stating annual performance guidance was met.
32. FY24 guidance - GLP growth 24-25%, NIM 12-12.2%, credit cost 1.6-1.8%, ROA 4.7-4.9%, ROE 20-21% Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided FY24: GLP growth 24-25%, NIM 12-12.2%, credit cost 1.6-1.8%, ROA 4.7-4.9%, ROE 20-21%, raised at Q2 FY24 to NIM 12.7-12.8%, ROA 5.4-5.6%, ROE 24-25%. FY24 delivered GLP growth 27.0%, NIM 13.0%, credit cost 2.06% gross / 1.8% net, ROA 5.6%, ROE 24.9%.
33. FY23 customer growth - 10% to 12% Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided customer growth of about 10% to 12% for FY23. FY23 customer base grew 11.5% YoY with over 12.3 lakh customers added.
34. Public NCD issue - maiden launch November 2022, up to Rs.1,500 crore Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management planned to launch a maiden public NCD issue in November 2022, raising up to Rs.1,500 crore in multiple tranches over the coming year. The maiden issue raised INR 500 crore, a second tranche of INR 990 crore followed in September 2023, and cumulative public NCD raise exceeded Rs.1,500 crore.
35. Top three states share - reduce to 60-65% in three years Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management expected the top three states (Karnataka, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu), then \~78-80% of AUM, to come down to 60-65% in the next three years. The share was 72.5% at Q4 FY24, 71.6% at Q4 FY25 and 69.0% at Q4 FY26.
36. International borrowings - 25-30% within two to three years On track - At the Q1 FY23 call, management reiterated at least 30-35% international borrowings within two to three years, expecting 20-25% in FY23 and 25-30% next year, later reset to 25-30% by FY2028. Foreign borrowings were 21.0% at FY25, 24.4% at FY26 and 24% at Q1 FY27.
37. FY23 cost-to-income - 35% to 38% Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided cost-to-income to remain between 35% to 38% (35% to 40%) for FY23. Q4 FY23 cost-to-income was 30.2%, below the guided range.
38. FY23 ROA - 4.0% to 4.2% Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided ROA of 4% to 4.2% for FY23. FY23 ROA was 4.2%, with management stating annual performance guidance was met.
39. FY23 NIM - up \~50 bps, with another 50 bps next year Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided NIM to move up by about 50 bps in FY23 and another 50 bps in FY24, about 120 bps over two years, later framed as 1.3% total expansion. From FY22 NIM of 10.9%, NIM reached 12.2% in Q4 FY23 and 13.0% in FY24, a \~210 bps increase.
40. FY23 credit cost - 1.8% to 2.0% Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided FY23 credit cost of 1.8% to 2%, revised down from 2% to 2.2%, with Q3 FY23 estimating gross 2.3-2.4% and net sub-2.0%. FY23 net credit cost stood at 2.1%, with Q4 FY23 credit cost of INR 105 crore including INR 14 crore management overlay.
41. FY23 AUM growth - 24% to 25% Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management reiterated FY23 AUM growth guidance of 24% to 25%. FY23 AUM grew 26.7% YoY to INR 21,031 crore, with management citing "meeting our annual performance guidance".
42. Business-as-usual credit cost - 150 to 180 bps going forward Missed - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided business-as-usual credit cost going forward of 150 to 180 bps. Actual credit cost was 2.1% net in FY23, 1.8% net in FY24, 7.68% in FY25 and 6.74% in FY26, with Q1 FY27 at 0.72% non-annualized.
43. Branch expansion - 8-10% branch growth every year Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management said its contiguous-growth philosophy would keep adding about 8-10% new branches, having earlier committed to opening 10-15% of infrastructure every year. Branches grew from 1,635 in FY22 to 2,063 in FY25 and 2,236 in FY26 (183 new branches), a roughly 8% CAGR over FY22-FY26.
44. Customer acquisition - \~90,000 per month sustainable Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management expected to keep acquiring close to 90,000 customers every month, sustainable going forward. Monthly additions ran \~93,000 in Q2 FY23, \~102,000 in Q3 FY23, \~109,000 in Q1 FY24 and \~112,000 in Q2 FY24, a \~1.1 lakh run-rate sustained through FY24.
45. Secured/non-microfinance book - cross 10-12% of GLP by 2024 Partial - At the Q3 FY22 call, management targeted the secured/non-microfinance book to cross 10% to 12% of overall GLP by 2024, from \~2% at the time, later reset to 12-15% of AUM by FY27-FY28. Retail finance AUM was 2.7% of book at end-FY24, 11.1% at Q2 FY26, 18.1% at Q4 FY26 and 20.6% at Q1 FY27.
46. Loan growth - at least 20-25% CAGR for next three years Partial - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided loan growth of "at least 20-25% CAGR for the next three years" on a stable year. Growth was 26.7% in FY23 and 27.0% in FY24, then -2.9% in FY25 and 14.0% in FY26, with FY27 guidance back at 20-25%.
47. FY22 credit cost - 4.2% to 4.7% Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management reiterated FY22 credit cost guidance of 4.2% to 4.7%, saying "we should be within that". 9M FY22 gross credit cost was 3.6% and net 3.2%, and FY22 PAT was achieved with management stating annual guidance was met.
48. FY22 GLP growth - surpass prior year's \~13% Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management expected FY22 GLP growth to surpass the prior year's \~13% growth, with \~9 months of operating period subject to no third wave. FY22 consolidated loan portfolio grew 22.2% YoY to INR 16,599 crore, with annual performance guidance achieved.
49. Liquidity normalization - reduce from \~15% to 8% by Q3 FY22 Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management committed to hold liquidity close to 15% of gross AUM till June end, then guided a phased cut to 10% by September 2021 and a normalized 8% by Q3 FY22. Liquidity fell to \~11% by September 2021 and 10.3% of total assets in Q3 FY22, reaching \~6-7% by Q2 FY23.
50. MMFL process integration - complete H1 FY22, operational alignment by FY23 Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management stated MMFL process integration was expected to complete in H1 FY22, with alignment of MMFL operational profitability, asset quality and credit cost with CAGL in FY23. Process integration completed in September 2021, all new MMFL loans ran on the CA Grameen model by Q3 FY22 with comparable asset quality, and the merger completed effective February 15, 2023.