1. MD successor appointment Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said Cummins Inc. is "absolutely looking to appoint a rightful successor" for the Managing Director. No successor appointment has been disclosed in the record as of Q1 FY27.
2. CPCB II production wrap-up one quarter before June 2024 Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management said it will attempt to wrap up CPCB II production at least 1 quarter before the June 2024 deadline. By Q1 FY25, CPCB-II channel inventory was zero, and by Q2 FY25 all CPCB II presale inventory was flushed out before 1st July 2024.
3. CPCB IV+ adoption mix greater than 25% Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management expected CPCB IV+ adoption mix likely to be greater than 25%. CPCB IV+ was less than 25% of overall sales in Q3 FY24, about 25% of power gen sales in Q4 FY24, 30-40% in Q1 FY25, \~40% of power gen sales in Q3 FY25, and \~60% of domestic Powergen value in Q1 FY26.
4. Employee cost growth 10-12% annually Pending - At the Q3 FY24 call, management expected employee cost growth in the range of 10% to 12% annually. Q1 FY27 cited annual merit increase, variable compensation true-up and actuarial credit reversal with headcount flat, but no explicit annual employee cost growth figure has been disclosed in the record.
5. Capacity to double sales without major capex Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management stated the company can double its sales and still not exceed 100% capacity utilization, with no major investment planned beyond balancing capacities. Utilization stayed at 60-70% in Q3 FY24, \~65% in Q4 FY25, 65-70% in Q1 FY26, \~70% in Q4 FY26 and 70-75% in Q1 FY27, while sales grew from ₹8,816 cr in FY24 to ₹11,950 cr in FY26.
6. Data center opportunity greater than ₹500 crores per year Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management stated the data center market alone offers greater than ₹500 crores of opportunity per year. Data centers contributed 30-35% of FY26 PowerGen domestic revenue of ₹4,758 cr (\~₹1,400-1,650 cr), and 40% of Q1 FY27 PowerGen revenue of ₹1,424 cr (\~₹570 cr in one quarter).
7. Construction market multi-year double-digit growth Partial - At the Q1 FY22 call, management saw construction as a "three to five-year double digit growth kind of journey". Construction revenue grew from ₹95 cr in Q3 FY22 and ₹100 cr in Q3 FY23 to ₹134 cr in Q1 FY24 and ₹624 cr in FY25, but FY26 construction was moderate.
8. Power generation market share gain in coming quarters Missed - At the Q3 FY21 call, management expected market share gain in power generation in the coming quarters. Q4 FY21 reported share being held with no real gains, Q3 FY22 no significant shifts, Q3 FY23 no real overall gains in 9 months, and Q1 FY24 share held, not gained.
9. Exports to surpass ₹1,600 crore mark Delivered - At the Q3 FY21 call, management remained optimistic exports would surpass the ₹1,600 crore mark, though no firm timeline was given. FY22 exports reached ₹1,610 cr and FY23 exports ₹2,050 cr.
10. CPCB IV+ norm delay of six months to a year Delivered - At the Q2 FY21 call, management expected the CPCB4 norm deadline to be postponed by "six months to a year". The original April 2022 date was pushed to July 1, 2023 as the notified effective date, a delay of about 15 months.
11. MEIS replacement export incentive positivity from January 2021 Missed - At the Q2 FY21 call, management expected the new export incentive regime to be in place from January and to start "playing positivity" from that quarter. By Q4 FY21, the MEIS export incentive loss was roughly ₹30-40 crores for the full year and RoDTEP was still not implemented.
12. No headcount additions even if volumes return Delivered - At the Q2 FY21 call, management had "a very clear direction" that it will not add more people even if volumes come back. Headcount was flat in Q1 FY27, and employee cost as a percentage of sales dropped almost 4 percentage points from Q4 FY20 to Q4 FY22.
13. Additional Fit for Market LHP launches in FY21 Delivered - In the FY20 Annual Report, the company stated additional Fit for Market products in the Low Horsepower segment were being worked on, to be introduced later in FY21. Low kVA Fit-for-Market products launched in FY 2020-21 were gaining traction in Latin America, Africa, Middle East and Asia Pacific by FY22, and Fit for Market 3.0 was being launched in Q2 FY24.
14. CEV BS IV/BS V engine launches ahead of norms Delivered - In the FY21 Annual Report, the company committed to launch new 4-cylinder and 6-cylinder engines to address CEV BS IV norms effective April 2021. New-generation electronic 4- and 6-cylinder engines were certified ahead of launch timelines for BSIV norms effective April 2021; QSB4.5 and QSB6.7 were certified to CEV BS V in FY24, and advanced 4- and 6-cylinder engines addressing CEV BSV were launched in FY25.
15. Ashwasan extended-warranty penetration improvement On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management anticipated Ashwasan extended-warranty penetration to improve, as it is now available for the CPCB IV+ range. By Q4 FY26 extended warranty service packages were available with CPCB IV+ products coming out of warranty from June onwards, and in Q1 FY27 comprehensive contracts kick in after the 2-year warranty period; no specific penetration metric has been disclosed.
16. CPCB IV+ volumes to catch up to CPCB II levels Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected CPCB IV+ volumes to catch up to CPCB II levels in "another quarter or 2". By Q1 FY26, CPCB IV+ volumes were back to pre-CPCB IV+ levels, and by Q2 FY26 power gen market volumes were back to pre-CPCB IV+ era levels.
17. CPCB IV+ pricing settlement by Q2 FY26 Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected CPCB IV+ genset pricing to completely settle down in "another quarter or 2". Pricing was "more or less" settled in Q1 FY26, largely adjusted by Q2 FY26, and largely sustaining across the range in Q4 FY26.
18. Electronic component supply chain resolution by mid-2024 Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management expected electronic component supply chain problems to persist at least till the middle of calendar year '24. Supply chain disruption was "90% behind us" in Q3 FY24, still improving but not fully resolved in Q1 FY25, and by Q4 FY26 no electronics challenge remained after issues were worked through for the last 2 years.
19. CPCB IV+ pre-buy strong in H2 2022/early 2023 Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management expected a strong pre-buy in the latter half of 2022 or early half of 2023 ahead of the CPCB-4 Plus transition. The pre-buy was pretty strong by Q4 FY23 with the company working 24x7, the CPCBII order board was "very, very full" in Q1 FY24, and greater than 70% of Q2 FY24 sales were CPCB-II products.
20. Data center large orders every couple of quarters Partial - At the Q3 FY22 call, management said large data-center one-off orders like the $20 million order should recur "every couple of quarters". By Q4 FY22 management softened the cadence, saying whether a 150 or 200 crore order comes every quarter is difficult to say; large orders appeared in Q2 FY22, Q3 FY24 and Q2 FY26, lumpy rather than on an alternate-quarter cadence.
21. Rail segment catch up to pre-COVID levels Delivered - At the Q2 FY21 call management said rail could not catch up within FY21, at Q3 FY21 it said rail would take at least a couple of quarters, and at Q4 FY21 it expected "few more quarters" before bouncing back. Rail revenue grew from ₹65-83 cr quarterly in FY22-FY23 and ₹92 cr in Q3 FY24 to ₹471 cr in FY25, with rail the largest contributor to domestic Industrial Markets in FY26.
22. CPCB IV+ export certifications pickup from H2 FY25 Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said CPCB IV+ export certifications to North America etc. had pilot samples provided with at least 3 or 4 products launched globally, expecting pickup from the second half of the year and full-year impact the next year. In Q3 FY25 the pickup was at very early days, QSK38/QSK50 launched for the U.S. market with good traction in Q1 FY26 but sizable share "remains to be seen", and FY26 exports grew 12% overall.
23. Royalty rates sustainable at 0.6-1% of sales Missed - At the Q1 FY22 call, management stated royalty rates at current levels of "somewhere between 0.6% and 1%" of sales are sustainable for the long term. Royalty plus support fees rose to \~1.7% of sales by FY23, and by Q1 FY27 rates previously ranging 1% to 8% across services were standardized to 4%.
24. Industrial segment 20%+ near-term growth, 2x GDP for 10-15 years Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided near-term industrial segment growth at 20%-plus and long-term at least 2x GDP growth for 10 to 15 years. Industrial domestic revenue grew 24% in FY24 (₹1,296 cr) and 29% in FY25 (₹1,668 cr) but declined 1% in FY26 (₹1,650 cr), and grew 10% YoY in Q1 FY27.
25. Powergen market growth 2x GDP for 8-10 years Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management expected the power gen market in India to grow at roughly 2x of GDP, growing aggressively for at least the next 8 to 10 years. Domestic powergen revenue grew 32% in FY24 (₹3,335 cr), 14% in FY25 (₹3,844 cr), 24% in FY26 (₹4,758 cr) and 35% YoY in Q1 FY27.
26. CPCB IV+ margin maintenance - no reduction expected Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management did not anticipate any reduction in margins on CPCB IV+ products and expected to maintain or increase margin as share goes up. OPM improved from 19.66% in FY24 to 20.02% in FY25 and 21.37% in FY26, with gross margins reaching record levels post-transition.
27. Employee cost 6-7% of revenues Missed - At the Q1 FY21 call, management said it is "working towards" bringing employee costs back to the historical 6-7% of revenues range, but "it's going to take some time". Employee cost as a percentage of sales dropped almost 4 percentage points from Q4 FY20 to Q4 FY22, but Q1 FY27 employee cost of \~₹2,300 crores on revenue of ₹3,375 crores remained far above the 6-7% range.
28. Export growth double-digit ambition Partial - At the Q3 FY23 call, management said it aspires to grow exports at a double-digit level, having stated at Q2 FY23 the ambition to keep growing exports at the current rate, if not more. Exports grew 27% in FY23 (₹2,050 cr), declined 18% in FY24 (₹1,673 cr), grew 6% in FY25 (₹1,771 cr), 12% in FY26 (₹1,989 cr), and were flat YoY in Q1 FY27.
29. North America exports at least 10-15% of portfolio Missed - At the Q1 FY22 call, management expected North America, currently less than 5% of exports, to become "at least 10% to 15% of our portfolio in the future". The Q2 FY24 export split showed the U.S. at ₹8 crores of ₹507 crores (\~1.6%), and by Q1-Q2 FY26 the U.S. was not a significant contributor.
30. QSK60 localization over 18 months from Q1 FY22 Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management committed that over the next 18 months CIL will see a lot more value addition/localization on the QSK60 G23 product, improving margins. The QSK60-G23, the most popular data center product, was launched and fully localized by Q4 FY23, and by Q2 FY25 QSK60 manufacturing largely sits in CTIPL with CIL doing subsequent value addition.
31. CPCB IV+ out-of-warranty services revenue from FY27 onwards On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management said the CPCB IV+ out-of-warranty services revenue opportunity "will likely come '27 onwards". CPCB IV+ products start coming out of warranty from June onwards, and in Q1 FY27 distribution data center revenues have been growing beyond normal growth rate for 2 quarters with comprehensive contracts kicking in after the 2-year warranty period.
32. BESS launch and scaling to C&I and utility grade On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, management launched BESS for C&I customers and said it will "absolutely evaluate" going to utility grade "as we go along in the next few months". Q2 FY26 saw many live inquiries but no good order board yet, and Q1 FY27 has a BESS demonstrator at the Phaltan rebuild center, "very close to getting some orders" but nothing confirmed.
33. Hotel load converter serial production and revenue contribution Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management anticipated regular orders for the hotel load converter and at Q1 FY26 said serialized production was "yet to start" but would be productionized "very, very soon" and contribute "in the coming quarters". Serial production approval was secured in Q2 FY26, confirmed in the FY26 Annual Report, and Q1 FY27 acceptance has been good as the first product in that space.
34. Hydrogen/clean energy tender wins in calendar 2022 Missed - At the Q3 FY22 call, management expected to win "a few orders" in hydrogen/clean energy "in this calendar year". No hydrogen/clean energy order wins were announced in calendar 2022; the GAIL electrolyzer order was taken globally by the Cummins division, and by Q1 FY25 Cummins India's distribution business held only service and support contracts on the GAIL hydrogen genset project.
35. Rail electrification products ₹300-400 crores revenue in 3-5 years Pending - At the Q4 FY22 call, management's ambition for the new rail electrification products was to get "over 300, 400 crores" of revenue over a three-to-five-year perspective. By Q2 FY26, management stated rail growth "is actually coming from our traditional products," with the hotel load converter - approved for serial production only that quarter - contributing "a very small percentage," so no cited source demonstrates the new-product revenue has reached the ₹300-400 cr target; total rail revenue was ₹471 cr in FY25.
36. Capex band of ₹200-250 crores FY23-FY25 Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management expected to remain in the ₹200 to ₹250 crores CAPEX band for at least the next two years. FY25 capex was \~₹230 crores and FY26 capex about ₹225 crores, with CWIP at 41.29 in FY23, 96.81 in FY24, 84.87 in FY25 and 97.71 in FY26.
37. CPCB IV+ localization greater than 90% Partial - At the Q1 FY24 call, management expected CPCB IV+ localization, currently greater than 80%, to reach greater than 90% (its traditional average). By Q4 FY24 the majority of over a dozen platforms were at high localization (>70-75%), and by Q2 FY25 a large part of the range was localized at launch with indigenization a continuous endeavor; no explicit disclosure of reaching 90% has been found.
38. Data center market double-digit growth for 5-8 years, 15-20% CAGR Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call management expected "more than double digit growth" over the next five years, at Q4 FY22 an "at least five to eight year double digit growth opportunity", and at Q3 FY23 endorsed 15-20% CAGR for at least 3 to 5 years. Data center contribution to PowerGen rose from \~10-15% in FY22 to 15-20% in Q1 FY26, \~25% in Q3 FY26, 30-35% in FY26 and 40% in Q1 FY27, growing at 25%+ CAGR in FY24.
39. Distribution business double-digit or better growth, 20% potential Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call management hoped distribution could be a double-digit or mid-double-digit growth story, at Q4 FY23 it called the outperformance sustainable for at least five years, at Q4 FY25 it guided "double-digit or better", and at Q1 FY27 it stated distribution "absolutely has the potential to grow at 20%". Distribution revenue grew 23% in FY22 (₹1,484 cr), 26% in FY23 (₹1,872 cr), 25% in FY24 (₹2,349 cr), 14% in FY25 (₹2,687 cr), 22% in FY26 (₹3,278 cr) and 14% YoY in Q1 FY27.
40. 2x GDP growth ambition over the medium term Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management stated its ambition to grow at 2X of India's GDP growth over the medium term (three to five years), reiterated through Q1 FY25. Revenue grew 25.95% in FY23, 15.80% in FY24, 15.45% in FY25 and 16.87% in FY26 against GDP of \~7%, \~8.2%, \~6.5% and \~6.5-7% respectively.
41. Double-digit revenue growth FY24-FY27 Delivered - Management guided double-digit growth for FY24 at the Q1 FY24 call, FY25 at the Q4 FY24 and Q1 FY25 calls, FY26 at the Q4 FY25 call, and FY26 plus a FY27 "we will target double-digit growth" at the Q3 FY26 call. Revenue grew 15.80% in FY24, 15.45% in FY25 and 16.87% in FY26, with Q1 FY27 up 17.86% YoY.
42. 100 bps per annum operating margin improvement ambition Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management reiterated the AGM ambition of \~100 basis points per annum increase in operating profit margin, framed as an internal target, "not a guidance". OPM improved from 16.05% in FY23 to 19.66% in FY24, 20.02% in FY25 and 21.37% in FY26, \~530 bps over three years, averaging well above 100 bps per annum.
43. Gross margin restoration to 34-35% within 18-24 months Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management committed that gross margins should return to previous levels of \~34-35% within the next 18 to 24 months, by the time CPCB-4 Plus is launched and stable. Gross margin reached 34% in Q3 FY23, \~35% material margin in Q2 FY24, 37.8% in Q1 FY25 and a \~20-quarter high closer to 38% in Q3 FY26, achieving the range within the window.