1. HPC - double-digit, if not high teens, for FY27 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management expected HPC to grow at double digit, "if not high teens," for FY27 - "at least a double digit is a bare minimum". Q1 FY27 HPC grew 12.3%, consistent with the double-digit target.
2. Beverages - double-digit growth in FY27 On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management targeted double-digit growth for the beverages business next year (FY27), later revised at Q4 FY26 to flat moving to mid-to-high single-digit in Q1 FY27. Q1 FY27 beverages grew mid-single digit and the F&B portfolio grew high single-digit (\~8%), below the double-digit target but with sequential improvement.
3. FY27 operating margin - go back to erstwhile 20% On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management said it wanted to "go back to our erstwhile 20% operating margin" for FY27, with Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27 revisions that margins would improve YoY and be "better than last year". Q1 FY27 operating margin was 19.69%, up from 19.62% in Q1 FY26, approaching but not yet at 20%.
4. FY27 growth - high single-digit to low double-digit On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management targeted "high single-digit to a low double-digit growth next year" (FY27) with margin improvement, revised upward at Q4 FY26 and reiterated as double-digit consolidated growth at Q1 FY27. Q1 FY27 consolidated revenue grew 10.6%, consistent with the target.
5. Q4 FY26 top line - high single digits Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management expected Q4 FY26 top line growth "in high single digits". Q4 FY26 revenue grew 7.3%, within the guided range.
6. Dabur Ventures - ₹500 cr capital allocation Pending - At the Q2 FY26 call, management launched Dabur Ventures with capital allocation of ₹500 cr over the next few years for investments in high-potential new-age digital-first businesses, and at Q1 FY27 said the ₹500 cr was already allocated for D2C acquisitions. Management is talking to 2-3 D2C acquisition targets, but no investment was completed as of Q1 FY27.
7. H2 FY26 growth - mid- to high-single-digit Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided for the balance of the year (H2 FY26) mid- to high-single-digit growth, later narrowing at Q3 FY26 to Q4 top line "in high single digits". Q3 FY26 revenue grew 6.1% and Q4 FY26 grew 7.3%, H2 growth of \~6.7% within the guided range.
8. Vision exercise "seven big moves" - scale four Healthcare brands to \~₹100 cr each Pending - At the Q1 FY26 call, management said the vision exercise included scaling four Healthcare brands - Pudin Hara, Health Juices, Hajmola and Shilajit - to around ₹100 cr each, with Hajmola moving up to around ₹550 cr. Health Juices were \~₹50 cr in FY25 and grew 17-18% in Q3 FY26; Hajmola grew 7% and Pudin Hara 6.6% in Q3 FY26; Shilajit declined in Q4 FY26, with no confirmation of reaching ₹100 cr each in our record.
9. FY26 operating margin - inch up significantly Partial - At the Q1 FY26 call, management committed that full-year operating margin would "inch up significantly" versus last year, later saying margins would "definitely be better than the top line". FY26 operating margin was 18.59%, up from 18.44% in FY25 - an improvement of only 15 bps.
10. Portfolio rationalization - exit tea, baby diapers, sanitizing, Vita, breakfast cereals Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management said a clear exit path was identified for non-performing categories - tea, baby diapers, sanitizing, Vita, and breakfast cereals - contributing "less than 1% of the overall revenue". The company exited Diapers, Tea and Vita, three brands contributing \~₹8 cr; sanitizing had already happened; breakfast cereals exit is not explicitly confirmed in our record.
11. Beverage portfolio - FY26 low to mid-single digit growth Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided FY26 beverage portfolio growth of "low to mid-single digit," revised at Q1 FY26 to low single digit. Beverages grew \~1.5-2% in Q2 FY26, \~7% in Q3 FY26, 3.2% in Q4 FY26 and mid-single digit in Q1 FY27, broadly achieving the target.
12. FY26 growth - high single-digit to double-digit Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided "high single digit, if not double-digit or near double-digit kind of growth for the full year" for FY26, revised at Q1 FY26 to high single-digit consolidated growth. FY26 consolidated revenue grew 5.01%, below the guided range.
13. Sesa merger - complete in 1.5-2 years, margin to 18-19% Pending - At the Q2 FY25 call, management said the Sesa merger would take at least 1.5 to 2 years for merger and regulatory approvals, after which Sesa operating margin should inch up to 18-19%. No explicit confirmation of the merger's completion appears in our record; the horizon from Q2 FY25 ends around Q4 FY26-Q2 FY27.
14. Home Care - ₹1,000 cr in 2-3 years Pending - At the Q2 FY25 call, management expected the Home Care portfolio to grow in double digits going forward, taking it from ₹700 cr to around ₹1,000 cr in a 2-3 years' timeframe, having earlier said at Q1 FY25 it was \~₹800 cr with TAM expansion. Home Care grew 8% in Q1 FY25, 5% in Q3 FY25, 24% in Q4 FY26 and mid-single digit in Q1 FY27, with no confirmation of reaching ₹1,000 cr in our record.
15. Namaste litigation - end in \~1.5 years, plus/minus 6 months Pending - At the Q2 FY25 call, management said the Namaste (US) litigation was expected to end in around 1.5 years, plus/minus 6 months, after a Q4 FY24 estimate of another 1-1.5 years. The litigation was still ongoing as of Q3 FY26; the 1.5-year horizon ends around Q4 FY26-Q2 FY27.
16. Legal costs - cap at ₹20-22 cr per quarter Partial - At the Q2 FY24 call, management said it was capping legal costs at around ₹20-22 cr per quarter going forward, after incurring ₹30-35 cr per quarter in H1, with later budgets of ₹80-90 cr for FY25 and \~₹80-90 cr full-year figures. Legal cost was \~₹36 cr in Q2 FY24, \~₹20 cr in Q3 FY24, ₹18 cr in Q1 FY25 and ₹75 cr in FY25 - the cap was met in some quarters but not consistently.
17. Oral care category - 50% natural in 5-6 years Pending - At the Q1 FY24 call, management said long term (5-6 years) the oral care category should become 50% natural, with Dabur consistently taking share from the market leader. The herbal/natural segment was \~30% of oral care in Q1 FY21, 31% in Q1 FY24 and 32% in Q2 FY26 - progress has been slow and the horizon is not yet fully elapsed.
18. Volume growth - mid-single to high-single digit going forward Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided volume growth of mid-single to high-single digit going forward, with the beverage portfolio a little negative, later reiterated for FY25. India volume growth was 5.5% in FY24, 5.2% in Q1 FY25, \~1.5% in Q3 FY25, 6% in Q4 FY26 and 5% in Q1 FY27, in the mid-single digit range.
19. Beverages - muted for FY24 Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management said beverages were expected to be muted for the full year, with a target of \~8-9% growth on a high base. Beverages declined \~1.6% in Q1 FY24, declined 10% in Q2 FY24, grew \~7% in Q3 FY24 and were flat in FY24, bearing out the muted expectation.
20. Portfolio salience - Foods 20%, Healthcare 30%, HPC 50% Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management stated the intended long-term portfolio salience: "we want to keep Foods at around 20%, and Healthcare at around 30%, and HPC at around 50%". FY24 domestic FMCG verticals were HPC 48.6%, Healthcare 31.4%, F&B 20%; Q1 FY27 domestic was HPC 55%, Healthcare 24%, F&B 21% - broadly in line, with Healthcare trending below 30%.
21. Operating margin - FY24 target \~19-19.5% Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management set a target of roughly 19-19.5% operating margin for FY24, reiterated through Q1, Q2 and Q3 FY24. FY24 operating margin was 19.4%, within the guided range.
22. Odonil - become largest air freshener brand next month Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management said of Odonil (33% air freshener market share): "next month we should become the largest brand in the Air Freshener business". Odonil Aerosol became #1 in the liquid sub-segment with 630 bps share gain in Q3 FY25, and Odonil was #1 in air fresheners with 44% volume market share in Q1 FY26.
23. HPC growth - high single to low double-digit in FY24 Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided HPC "next year... should be able to do a high single to a low double-digit growth as far as HPC is concerned, with gross margin expansion". HPC grew 11% in Q1 FY24, 5.8% in Q2 FY24, 7% in Q3 FY24 and 8.1% in FY24, within the guided range.
24. F&B portfolio - double to ₹4,000-5,000 cr by \~FY28 Pending - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided the F&B portfolio (\~₹1,700 cr) "should easily... double in 5 years... we are looking at around Rs. 4,000 crores to Rs. 5,000 crores in the next 5 years' time". Foods segment revenue was ₹2,179 cr in FY24, ₹2,101 cr in FY25 and ₹2,016 cr in FY26 - well short of the target so far, but the \~FY28 horizon remains unreached, so the outcome is not yet determinable.
25. Therapeutics division - target \~₹200 cr Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management said the new Therapeutics division's \~440-person allopathic advocacy team "have been given a target of roughly around Rs. 200 crores", later revised to \~₹150 cr incremental in FY24 and a ₹100 cr to ₹200 cr scale-up. The division did \~₹95 cr in 9 months of FY24 and \~₹120 cr in FY24, with no confirmation of reaching ₹200 cr in our record.
26. Badshah Masala acquisition - 51% stake, growth and accretion targets Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, management announced the acquisition of 51% of Badshah Masala, with plans to grow it at 20%+ CAGR over 4-5 years, PAT accretive within two years, e-commerce at least 5% in a couple of years, modern trade from 3% to 10% and exports to \~10%. Badshah grew 23.3% in FY24 but moderated to 12% in FY25 and 13.3% in Q1 FY27, trending at \~₹400 cr from \~₹220 cr at acquisition, with e-commerce at almost 6%; modern trade and export targets are not confirmed in our record.
27. Lal Tail - from \~₹100 cr to ₹1,000 cr Pending - At the Q3 FY22 call, management said the plan was to take the Lal Tail power brand from around ₹100 cr to ₹1,000 cr level as part of the long-term game plan for all power brands. Lal Tail grew \~15-16% in Q1 FY24 and 10% in Q4 FY26, but lost market share in UP and Bihar to AD Oil, with no confirmation of progress toward ₹1,000 cr in our record.
28. Oral care - long-term double-digit growth Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided long-term double-digit growth in oral care through premiumization and regional initiatives, later reiterated for FY24 and for Q1 FY27. Oral care grew 11.3% in FY22, \~5% in FY23, 11.3% in FY24, 14% in Q2 FY26 and near double-digit in Q1 FY27, delivering double-digit growth in most periods with occasional single-digit dips.
29. Foods margins - only go up over next 3-4 years Missed - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided that over the next three to four years foods margins would only go up, citing PLI benefit, premiumization and in-housing third-party production, reiterated at Q2 FY23. Foods segment PBIT margin went from 13.94% in FY24 to 12.74% in FY25 and 11.89% in FY26, declining rather than rising.
30. PLI benefit - ₹170 cr over 5-7 years, shore up food margins by 2-3% Pending - At the Q3 FY22 call, management said the PLI benefit of roughly ₹170 cr (on the ₹550 cr Indore plant juice-line investment) would be received over the next five to seven years and would shore up food business margins by 2-3% long term. PLI approvals were received for roughly ₹170 cr of benefit, but no confirmation of the margin improvement or receipt of benefits appears in our record.
31. Beverage market share - from \~10% to \~20% of drinks TAM Pending - At the Q3 FY22 call, management stated an aspiration to take beverage market share from \~10% (in the expanded \~10,000 cr drinks TAM) to around 20% going forward, with a guided \~5-6% share gain in drinks over the next four years. Drinks distribution reached \~230,000-240,000 outlets, but the drinks portfolio remained at \~₹200 cr with \~10% share, with no confirmation of reaching 20% in our record.
32. Drinks portfolio - ₹100 cr turnover in FY22 Partial - At the Q2 FY22 call, management expected a ₹100-crore turnover in FY22 coming only from drinks, later raising the ambition to ₹500 cr in 2-3 to 5 years. The drinks business did \~₹100 cr in FY22 and doubled to \~₹200 cr in FY23, but remained \~₹200 cr through Q3 FY26, short of the ₹500 cr target.
33. Fizz drinks category launch - hit the market in FY22 Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management said a fizz drinks category launch was going to hit the market in the current year (FY22). Three carbonated variants under Real (Jeera Cola, Nimbu, Apple) were launched in Q1 FY22; Real Fizz grew 100% in Q2 FY25 and the fizz portfolio grew \~30-35% in Q1 FY27.
34. International business - double-digit growth Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management committed to double-digit growth in international business for FY22, reiterated across later calls including double digits for FY27. International grew 10.7% CC in FY22, 11% CC in FY23, 16.4% CC in FY24 and 15.5% INR in Q1 FY27, though with occasional dips such as 5.5% CC in Q2 FY26 and 2.5% INR in Q4 FY26.
35. Health Supplements growth - low single digit in FY22, double-digit medium term Partial - At the Q4 FY21 call, management guided Health Supplements growth would be low single digit in FY22 (high base), while OTC and Ethical would deliver double-digit growth in FY22, with Health Supplements double-digit in the medium term from FY23 onwards. Health Supplements declined 20% in Q1 FY23, grew 7% in Q1 FY25 and were low single digit in Q1 FY27, settling at low-to-mid single digits below the double-digit trajectory.
36. Hommade brand - breach ₹100 cr in FY22, reach ₹500 cr in four years Partial - At the Q4 FY21 call, management targeted Hommade to breach the ₹100 cr milestone in FY22 (from ₹70 cr in FY21) and to reach ₹500 cr in the next four years, with the target later extended to the combined foods portfolio including Badshah. Hommade crossed ₹100 cr in FY22, and the foods portfolio reached \~₹450 cr exit in FY24, but the ₹500 cr combined target was not confirmed as achieved; Badshah alone was \~₹400 cr by Q1 FY27.
37. Healthcare share of business - settle at 50% over next 3 years Missed - At the Q3 FY21 call, management said "the intent is to take it up to that level, definitely" regarding Healthcare share settling at 50% over the next 3 years, though it was "very difficult to say", later revised down to \~30% at Q4 FY22. Healthcare share was 39% in FY21, 31.4% in FY24 and 24% in Q1 FY27 - the 50% level was never reached and the target was explicitly revised to \~30%.
38. Middle East business - recovery from current quarter onward Delivered - At the Q2 FY21 call, management said the Middle East business "should be back on recovery from current quarter onward". The international business overall grew 5.5% in Q2 FY21 while MENA still faced macroeconomic headwinds, but MENA turned around with double-digit CC growth in Q3 FY21, grew 50% in Q1 FY22 and 12% in FY24, though the West Asia war later impacted the region in Q4 FY26.
39. Dabur Red Gel revamp - visible in next quarter Delivered - At the Q2 FY21 call, management committed to a revamp of the Dabur Red Gel portfolio "in next quarter you will see a revamp of Dabur Red Gel happening", later rolled out under the sub-brand 'Bae Fresh'. The relaunch exited at \~₹20 cr in FY23, and Bae Fresh gel reached \~₹40 cr by Q4 FY24.
40. Distribution expansion - outlets from 0.12 cr to 0.13 cr, then 0.14 cr Delivered - At the Q2 FY21 call, management committed to distribution expansion: outlets going from 0.12 cr last year to \~0.13 cr now, and "next year we will go forward to around 0.14 cr outlets," with the target later raised to 0.15 cr by end of FY24. Direct reach achieved 0.13 cr by Q4 FY21, 0.14 cr by Q4 FY23 and \~15 lakh by Q2 FY25.
41. MP mega project - Chyawanprash capacity augmentation, production in \~3 months Delivered - At the Q2 FY21 call, management committed to a mega project in MP of \~40 acres (advance already paid), with production commencing in "couple of months, almost three months' time," augmenting Chyawanprash manufacturing capacity, later firmed up as a ₹550 cr Greenfield facility near Indore. The Indore plant became operational since December 2021, with aseptic and ultra-high-speed PET filling lines commissioned.
42. Ad spend increase - fund NPDs and power brands, partly from Samriddhi Partial - At the Q1 FY21 call, management planned an increase in ad spend going forward to support NPDs and power brands, partly funded by Samriddhi savings, with later commitments of 7-8% ATL for the year and a ramp toward 8-10%. Ad spend was \~8% in Q2 FY21, \~7.2% in Q2 FY22 and \~8% in Q1 FY25 - sustained at 7-8%, but the aspirational 11.5-12% level was never reached.
43. Dabur Baby range - Amazon exclusive launch, then extend if traction Delivered - At the Q1 FY21 call, management said the Dabur Baby range would roll out as an exclusive Amazon launch on Amazon's Big Day; if traction is there, it would be extended to modern trade and general trade. Baby care launched on e-commerce, extended to modern trade, and scaled to ₹20 cr in FY23 and \~₹50 cr exit in FY25.
44. FY21 full-year growth - low to mid-single-digit to compensate for COVID Delivered - At the Q1 FY21 call, management guided that for the full year FY21, growth would be "low to mid-single-digit to compensate for the COVID impact", before declining to give a number at Q2 and Q3 FY21. FY21 consolidated revenue grew 10%, with India FMCG up 15% on 12.4% volume growth, exceeding the guided range.
45. Foods/beverage business - return to \~10% growth trajectory post-normalcy Delivered - At the Q1 FY21 call, management expected the Foods/beverage business to return to a \~10-odd percentage point growth trajectory post-normalcy once HoReCa/enterprise channels normalize. Foods declined 34% in Q1 FY21, then grew 28% in Q4 FY21, 48% in FY22 and \~30% in FY23, sustaining double-digit growth.
46. Rural coverage - expand from \~52,600 to 60,000 villages Delivered - At the Q1 FY21 call, management committed to expanding rural coverage from \~52,600 villages to around 60,000 villages "in two years' time, in this year or a year and a half," subject to COVID and accessibility, with later targets of 80,000, 90,000 and 100,000 villages. 60,000 villages were achieved by end of FY21, \~83,500 by Q2 FY22 and 100,000 by Q2 FY23, with coverage reaching 1.22 lakh by Q4 FY24.
47. E-commerce contribution - reach \~5% of sales by end of FY21 Delivered - At the Q1 FY21 call, management expected e-commerce to end the year at around 5% contribution of sales, later raising ambitions to \~14% in three to four years and \~19-20% in four years. E-commerce reached 5.6% in Q1 FY21 and \~9-10% by Q4 FY24 - the original \~5% target was exceeded, though the later 14% and 19-20% targets were not reached.
48. NPD contribution - sustain 3-4% of turnover going forward Delivered - At the Q1 FY21 call, management said it was comfortable with NPDs contributing around 3-4% of total turnover going forward, down from the 5-6% launch-quarter spike, with later guides of 4-5% and 5% annually. NPD contribution was 6.1% in Q1 FY21, \~5% in FY22, \~3.5% in FY24 and \~2-3% in Q3 FY26, broadly staying in the 3-5% band.
49. Channel inventory correction - reduce stockist pipeline from 16 days to 11-12 days Partial - At the Q1 FY21 call, management planned further channel inventory correction of \~4-5 days during FY21, taking the stockist pipeline from 16 days to \~11-12 days, contingent on raising RA-level availability from \~70-75% to \~90%, later moving toward a Continuous Replenishment System at \~12.5 days. The pipeline was corrected to \~13 days by Q3 FY21, but the 11-12 day target was never reached; inventory stood at \~21 days by Q2 FY25 and 21-22 days was later declared optimal.
50. Project Samriddhi - ₹100-120 cr savings, ongoing cost-reduction programme Delivered - At the Q1 FY21 call, management committed to ₹100-120 cr of savings from Project Samriddhi, of which ₹40 cr was already budgeted, with savings redeployed into brand building and framed as an ongoing exercise, later raising identified projects to \~₹150 cr and guiding another ₹100 cr for FY22. FY21 delivered \~₹50 cr, FY22 delivered \~₹100 cr and FY24 delivered \~₹89 cr, with \~₹60 cr of saving initiatives disclosed in H1 FY26.