1. FY27 volume growth better than industry On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management aimed to deliver volume growth better than industry for FY27; at Q1 FY27 it expected organic growth at least in line with industry growth of 7-8%. Q1 FY27 volume growth was 9% YoY against industry growth of about 7-8%.
2. Trade share mid-60s to high-60s Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, Yatin Malhotra said 62% trade share was "definitely not the new normal" and committed to a future path of mid-60s to high-60s. Trade share returned to 67% in Q4 FY26 and stood at 66% in Q1 FY27.
3. ED/Bharathi Cement case - no adverse outcome expected Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management said it did not expect an adverse outcome in the ED/Bharathi Cement case. By Q4 FY26, alleged proceeds of crime were reduced from Rs. 793 crores to Rs. 93 crores and ED ordered release of the entire land parcel against a Rs. 93 crore bank guarantee.
4. FY26 volume growth in line with or better than industry Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management declined a hard FY26 volume number but expected "respectable growth in line with or better than the industry growth". FY26 sales volume grew 2% to 30.0 MnT, but our record holds no full-year FY26 industry growth comparison, so the commitment cannot be fully verified.
5. 595 MW operational RE capacity by end FY26 Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected 595 MW of operational RE capacity by end FY26, later revised to 576 MW at Q2 FY26. RE capacity stood at 449 MW in Q4 FY26 and was unchanged at 449 MW in Q1 FY27.
6. 120 MW green power capacity addition in FY25 Partial - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided adding around 120 MW of green power capacity in FY25, majority solar. By Q4 FY25, operational RE capacity was 267 MW, up from 185 MW in Q4 FY24 - a net addition of \~82 MW, short of 120 MW.
7. 36 MnT by FY22 Delivered - At the FY21 annual report, management set a capacity expansion plan from 30.75 MnT to 36 MnT by FY22. FY22 closed at 35.9 MnT (3.59 crore tons), substantially achieving the target.
8. 49.5 MTPA by FY25 through organic expansion Delivered - At the FY24 annual report, management aimed to reach 49.5 MTPA by FY25 through organic expansion. At Q4 FY25, the 4.95 crore tons (49.5 MTPA) capacity was achieved with commissioning of the Lanka and Bihar grinding units.
9. Up to 10% of Operating Cash Flow to shareholder returns Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 PPT, management set a capital allocation policy of up to 10% of Operating Cash Flow towards shareholders' return, reiterated in the Q4 FY25 PPT and FY24 annual report. FY25 saw an interim dividend of Rs. 4 and a recommended final dividend of Rs. 5 per share, and FY26 an interim dividend of Rs. 4 per share.
10. FY27 incentive accruals of about Rs. 200 crores On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided FY27 incentive accrual of around Rs. 200 crores, reiterated at Q3 FY26 and Q4 FY26. Q1 FY27 incentives accrued Rs. 45 crores, with accruals expected at Rs. 45-50 crores per quarter over the next couple of years.
11. Jaisalmer greenfield expansion decision by March 2026 Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided the Jaisalmer 0.6 crore tpa greenfield decision to be reviewed in March '26, with ground-breaking between April and June 2026 and commissioning by March '28. No Jaisalmer announcement was made by Q4 FY26 or Q1 FY27, with new projects to reach 7.5 crore tons still being worked on.
12. FY27 CAPEX of about Rs. 4,000 crores On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided FY27 capex of approximately INR 4,000 crores, reiterated through Q3 FY26 before being revised to INR 3,200-3,400 crores at Q4 FY26. Q1 FY27 capex spent was about Rs. 510 crores excluding acquisition cost, with the full year not yet complete.
13. Kadapa expansion commissioning by Q2 FY28 On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, management announced a Kadapa 0.36 crore tpa clinker unit with 0.6 crore tpa grinding unit and a 0.3 crore tpa Chennai bulk terminal at INR 3,287 crores capex, commissioning by Q2 FY28. The schedule slipped to Q2-Q3 FY28, and by Q1 FY27 site excavation was underway with contractors mobilized and major orders placed.
14. Belgaum-Pune project online by end of FY27 On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided the Belgaum-Pune project online by end of FY27, with 3 MTPA greenfield Pune and 3 MTPA Belgaum grinding capacity supported by 3.6 MTPA Belgaum clinker. By Q1 FY27, Belgaum was 78% erected and expected to commence production in about 6 months (\~Q4 FY27), ahead of schedule, while Pune excavation had started.
15. Umrangso clinker unit commercial production in Q3 FY26 Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided Umrangso clinker unit trial runs from September 2025 and commercial production in Q3 FY26, reiterated at Q2 FY26 when the trial run commenced. In Q3 FY26, commercial production started from the new 0.36 crore tons clinker line at Umrangso.
16. FY26 incentive accruals of \~Rs. 300 crores Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided FY26 incentive accruals of about Rs. 300 crores, revised down to around Rs. 240 crores at Q2 FY26 after the GST rate cut deferred accruals. Quarterly accruals of Rs. 84, 64, 91 and 45 crores totalled roughly Rs. 284 crores, above the revised guidance but short of the original Rs. 300 crores.
17. FY26 CAPEX guided at about Rs. 2,500 crores, revised down to around Rs. 2,700 crores Partial - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided FY26 capex of about INR 2,500 crores, revised through FY26 to Rs. 3,500 crores, then Rs. 4,000, Rs. 3,000 and finally around Rs. 2,700 crores by Q3 FY26. YTD December spending was Rs. 1,703 crores, but no full-year FY26 capex figure is disclosed in our record, so delivery against the final guidance cannot be confirmed.
18. 60% RE power share by FY26 year-end Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management hoped for about 60% RE share by FY26 year-end, revised at Q2 FY25 to about 50% by end FY26. Q4 FY26 RE share was 47%, short of the revised 50% target.
19. 50% RE power share by Q4 FY25 Partial - At the Q1 FY25 call, management expected about 50% RE power share by Q4 FY25, revised to about 45% by end FY25 and then 40-45%. Q4 FY25 RE share was 39%, but it reached 48% by Q2 FY26 and held at 48% in Q1 FY27.
20. Cost reduction of Rs. 150-200 per ton over three years Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management committed to reducing cost by INR 150-200 per ton over the next three years on the current footprint. By Q4 FY26, cost per ton since Q1 FY25 was down INR 183/ton reported and INR 211/ton adjusted for the Tamil Nadu mineral cess and fuel prices, with management confirming delivery at Q1 FY27.
21. 15-16% CAGR volume growth including Jaypee Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, Puneet Dalmia reiterated 15-16% CAGR including Jaypee: "we can do 12%, 13% without Jaypee assets, and Jaypee assets can add another 4%, 5%". FY25 and FY26 volume growth were each 2%, with Q1 FY27 at 9% - the 15-16% CAGR was not achieved in FY25 or FY26.
22. Peak gross debt of Rs. 9,000 crores and net debt of Rs. 5,000-5,250 crores by FY25 year-end Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided peak gross debt of about INR 9,000 crores and net debt of about INR 5,000-5,250 crores by year-end FY25. FY25 closed with gross debt of Rs. 5,279 crores and net debt of Rs. 716 crores, well below the guided peak.
23. FY25 incentive accruals of Rs. 300 crores Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 total incentive accruals of around INR 300 crores, reiterated at Q2 FY25 and revised to around INR 325 crores at Q3 FY25. FY25 incentive accrual was Rs. 336 crores.
24. FY25 CAPEX of Rs. 3,500-4,000 crores Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 CAPEX of about INR 3,500-4,000 crores, cut through FY25 to INR 3,000-3,300 and then about INR 3,000 crores. FY25 CAPEX was \~Rs. 2,664 crores plus Rs. 98 crores invested in equity SPVs, below the revised Rs. 3,000 crore guidance.
25. FY25 EBITDA per ton of Rs. 1,100-1,200 Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided FY25 EBITDA per ton around INR 1,100-1,200, revised at Q2 FY25 to INR 900-1,000 blended. FY25 EBITDA per ton was Rs. 820, with FY25 OPM at 17.22%.
26. FY25 volume growth of mid-teens Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided FY25 volume growth of mid-teens, restated as 15-16% at Q3 FY24 and implied at \~9% by Q2 FY25 given industry growth of \~6%. FY25 sales volumes grew 2% YoY overall, 6% from Dalmia plants only.
27. Kalyanpur and Lanka expansions in H2 FY25 Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided the Kalyanpur (0.05 crore tons) and Lanka, Northeast (0.24 crore tons) expansions to be commissioned in H2 FY25, reiterated at Q2 FY25. In Q4 FY25, the 0.24 crore tons Lanka grinding unit in Assam and the 0.05 crore tons Bihar grinding unit were commissioned.
28. Kadapa and Ariyalur expansions completed by March 2024 Partial - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided Kadapa and Ariyalur expansions of 0.1 crore tons each to be completed by March '24, having converted a 0.2 crore ton Tamil Nadu greenfield into these brownfield units. The units were under trial run at Q4 FY24 and commissioned in Q1 FY25, one quarter late, taking South capacity to 1.7 crore tons.
29. 100% low-carbon (blended) cement production Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, management committed to becoming a 100% low-carbon (blended) cement producer over the next 3 years, with the FY23 annual report targeting the transition by 2025 and the Q4 FY25 PPT by 2026. Blended share fluctuated between 82% and 88% - 84% in FY25, 83% in Q4 FY26 and 82% in Q1 FY27.
30. Jaypee acquisition closing Partial - At the Q3 FY23 call, management expected the Jaypee acquisition to close "in few months' time", with the FY24 annual report planning 9.4 MnT cement, 6.7 MnT clinker and 280 MW thermal power. After Jaypee entered insolvency in Q1 FY25, the acquisition completed on 29th May 2026 at an enterprise value of Rs. 2,850 crores, bringing 0.52 crore tons cement and 0.33 crore tons clinker capacity.
31. Renewable share of power mix to reach \~36% over next two years Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided the renewable share of the power mix to scale to around 36% over the next two years. Q1 FY25 RE share reached 35% and Q2 FY25 improved to 39%, achieving the target within the two-year window.
32. Total renewable energy capacity of 328 MW by FY24 Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided total renewable energy capacity to reach 328 MW by FY '24, revised to 324 MW at Q3 FY23 and Q4 FY23. FY24 closed with around 185 MW operational, after a 130 MW solar plan ended at 113 MW in a deliberate delay awaiting technology cost declines.
33. Bihar grinding unit commissioned by March 2024 Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, management was "hopeful" of commissioning the Bihar grinding unit by March '24, later deferred with the organic plan changed from 4.9 to 4.66 crore tons and the 0.05 crore ton Rohtas unit guided for H2 FY25. The 0.05 crore tons Bihar grinding unit was commissioned in Q4 FY25, a year late, taking capacity to 4.95 crore tons.
34. 7.5 crore tons capacity by FY27 Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, Rajiv Bansal committed to delivering 7.5 crore tons by '27, a target reiterated in the FY23 and FY24 annual reports before being revised to FY28 at Q1 FY25 citing Jaypee insolvency. As of Q1 FY27, installed capacity is 54.7 MnT including Jaypee, with announced projects taking it to 66.7 MnT by Q3 FY28; Puneet Dalmia acknowledged "we are 1 year behind schedule".
35. IEX stake divestment Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management stated intent to offload all non-core assets including IEX with no timeline committed, and the FY23 annual report set divestment of IEX and the refractory business as priorities. In Q1 FY26, 4.1% of IEX was divested for Rs. 742 crores, reducing the holding to 10.8%, and by Q4 FY26 half the position was liquidated; the refractory business divestment was completed.
36. Net debt/EBITDA below 2x Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, Rajiv Bansal reiterated net debt/EBITDA of less than 2x, with exceptions for large M&A, a comfort level restated in the FY23 annual report and across subsequent calls. Q1 FY27 net debt/EBITDA stood at 1.47x even after the Jaypee acquisition, with D/E at 0.41 and debt at Rs. 7,406 crores.
37. Capital allocation framework - ROCE of 14-15% over 10 years On track - At the Q4 FY22 call, Rajiv Bansal reiterated the capital allocation framework target ROC of 14% to 15% ("mid-teens") over a 10-year period as "absolutely achievable", restated in the Q4 FY24 and Q4 FY25 PPTs. FY26 core cement ROCE improved to 12.1% from 9.9% in FY25, while group ROCE was 8.2%.
38. FY23 industry demand growth of 6-8% and company growth better than industry Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management expected FY23 industry cement demand growth of 6% to 8% with company growth better than that, and Puneet Dalmia said FY23 volume growth "should be better than last year for sure". FY23 industry demand grew 9-10% and Dalmia delivered volume growth of 15.9% YoY.
39. Murli plant utilization of 60-70% during FY23 Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided Murli plant capacity utilization at 60% to 70% during FY23, revised at Q2 FY23 to 55-60% for the whole year. Q3 FY23 utilization was \~55% in January and March '23 exit was around 52%, short of the revised target.
40. FY23 renewable power additions - 41 MW WHRS and 66 MW solar Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided FY23 power additions of about 41 MW of WHRS and about 66 MW of solar, with total renewable power of about 172 MW by end FY23. FY23 closed with 166 MW renewable capacity, up from 62 MW in FY22, within \~3% of the guided total.
41. FY24 incentive accrual of about Rs. 240 crores Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided incentive accrual of about Rs. 240 crores for FY24 including Murli, later revised to Rs. 275-300 crores at Q4 FY23 and Rs. 280-300 crores at Q3 FY24. FY24 incentive accruals were Rs. 298 crores, at the top of the guided range.
42. FY23 incentive accrual of about Rs. 240 crores Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided incentive accrual of about Rs. 240 crores for FY23 including Murli, reiterated at Q1 FY23. FY23 incentive accrual was about Rs. 272 crores.
43. FY24 CAPEX of about Rs. 3,500-4,000 crores Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided FY24 CAPEX of about Rs. 3,500-4,000 crores, later budgeted at Rs. 5,000-5,500 crores including Jaypee and then around Rs. 6,500 crores before being estimated at around INR 3,000 crores excluding Jaypee. FY24 capex was Rs. 2,827 crores against expectations of Rs. 3,000 crores, with the Jaypee acquisition not closing in FY24.
44. FY23 budgeted CAPEX of Rs. 3,000-3,500 crores Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided FY23 budgeted CAPEX spend of Rs. 3,000-3,500 crores, revised at Q3 FY23 to close to Rs. 3,000-3,200 crores. FY23 CAPEX spent was close to Rs. 2,710 crores.
45. 110-130 crore tonnes capacity by 2031 On track - At the Q4 FY22 call, management reiterated its vision of 11 to 13 crore tonnes by 2031 as fully committed, a vision set in the FY21 annual report and the February 2022 announcement and reiterated across calls. As of Q1 FY27, installed capacity stands at 54.7 MnT including Jaypee, with announced projects taking it to 66.7 MnT by Q3 FY28; Puneet Dalmia called the 2031 number "directional".
46. 4.85 crore tonnes capacity by March 2024 Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management remained firmly on track to reach 4.85 crore tonnes capacity by March '24, later revised with the Bihar deferral to a 4.66 crore ton organic plan plus 5.6 crore tons including Jaypee by end FY24. FY24 closed at 4.46 crore tons, with the 0.1 crore ton Ariyalur and Kadapa expansions commissioned in Q1 FY25, effectively achieving 4.66 crore tons one quarter late.
47. 4.0 crore tonnes cement capacity by March 2023 Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management targeted total installed cement capacity of 4 crore tonnes and clinker capacity of 2.34 crore tonnes by March '23, reiterated firmly in Q&A ("we are quite confident"). FY23 closed at 3.86 crore tons, and April '23 Bokaro commissioning took capacity to 4.11 crore tons, crossing the target within a month of the deadline.