1. Dornier 228 upgrade decision by HAL in 6 to 12 months Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management expected the Dornier 228 upgrade decision by HAL in "six to 12 months" since HAL needs to deliver in 2026. By Q1 FY26 the Maritime Patrol Radar hardware was handed to DRDO, flight testing was incomplete and DRDO may import radars from ELTA in the interim, with no HAL decision disclosed.
2. Negotiated orders of \~₹1,726 cr to convert in next few months Partial - At the Q1 FY27 call, management expected \~₹1,726 cr of negotiated contracts to convert in the next few months, after earlier calls guided \~₹1,100 cr and \~₹1,000 cr "in the next 1 to 2 months". Negotiated orders stood at ₹1,090 cr at Q4 FY26 with some contracts signed, but the program has been stretched by more than 1.5 years with another 2-month customer extension.
3. Additional factory operational in 1 to 2 years On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management said it is "putting up additional factory, which is going to come up in the next one to 2 years' time", later detailing about nine floors of factory space. By Q1 FY27 foundation work on the building had started, with capex of more than ₹200 cr plus guided over the next 2 years.
4. TAM of ₹15,000-20,000 cr from QIP products On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management expected TAM for products under development of ₹15,000 cr to ₹20,000 cr, with orders materializing "over the next 2, 3 years' time". By Q1 FY27 the products were at an advanced stage with no revenue yet disclosed, and the addressable market was framed at ₹40,000 cr to ₹50,000 cr.
5. Revenue scale of ₹5,000 cr in 4-5 years On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, management aimed to grow from ₹700 cr to a ₹5,000 cr company in the next 4 years, 5 years. FY26 revenue reached ₹925 cr, up 31%, and Q1 FY27 revenue was ₹116 cr, with the horizon still open.
6. Very large contracts of \~₹2,000 cr expected this financial year Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said that beyond the existing order book, it is pursuing very large similar contracts to the extent of another \~₹2,000 cr, expected to happen during the course of this financial year. No disclosure of these contracts materializing appears in our record, and the horizon has not elapsed.
7. Space/air-defense long-range radar contracts worth a few thousands of crores in 1.5 to 2 years Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management expected back-to-back space/air-defense long-range radar contracts of substantive business running in a few thousands of crores in the next 1.5 to 2 years' time. The systems have been delivered and are well appreciated by customers, but no back-to-back contracts have been disclosed yet.
8. HAWK radar software breakthrough in 2 to 3 months On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management expected a breakthrough on HAWK radar software collaboration in the next 2 to 3 months' time, followed by software porting and flight trials. HAWK radar hardware for both MiG and Su-30 is done and described as world class, and own software development has just started with UAV platforms used for trials.
9. Counter-drone contracts fructifying in 3 to 6 months On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management expected counter-drone contracts to start getting fructified in the next 3 to 6 months' time, with several hundred crores expected during the year. First orders started being received during Q1 FY27, after anti-drone products reached an advanced development stage at Q4 FY26.
10. Su-30 jammer pod trials before December, then production On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management expected the first trials of the Su-30 jammer pod before December, followed by a few months of flight trials and then commercial production. The pod is in development stage and going well, with customers having reviewed and expressed satisfaction with progress.
11. ST Advanced Composites acquisition completed Delivered - At the Q1 FY27 call, management announced the ST Advanced acquisition was finalized the day before the call, on July 30, 2026. A 100% stake in ST Advanced Composites Pvt. Ltd. was acquired for ₹10 cr, with board approval in Q1 FY27.
12. AMCA contract placement expected within 6 months to a year Pending - At the Q2 FY26 call, management relayed that the customer wants to place AMCA contracts early - "less than a year, maybe 6 months is what they're saying". The consortium remained at RFI stage at Q2 FY26, one of three was shortlisted by Q3 FY26, and the RFP was still expected "any time now" at Q4 FY26 with no placement disclosed.
13. Satellite development contracts as the development cycle starts On track - At the Q4 FY23 call, management was developing medium-class satellites of 120 to 200 kg plus lower-orbit satellites and expected development contracts as the cycle starts. Plans were postponed pending contracting clarity at Q2 FY25, and at Q1 FY27 a decision on the satellite/space investment is expected within 3 to 4 months' time pending government funding clarity. A nano-satellite with Hyper-Spectral payload was launched November 26, 2022 and handed over February 07, 2023.
14. Order pipeline participation of ₹2,000-3,000 cr over 3-4 years Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management targeted bidding for close to ₹2,000 cr to ₹3,000 cr of additional orders in the next 2 to 3 years, a participation target repeated through FY24. Cumulative FY23-FY26 order inflow reached \~₹2,400+ cr - ₹901.4 cr in FY23, ₹355.1 cr in FY25 and ₹1,121.4 cr in FY26 - with the order book at ₹2,654 cr including negotiated.
15. Maintain net debt-free status Delivered - From the Q2 FY23 PPT onward, management committed to maintain net debt free status, reiterated in every PPT through Q1 FY27. The company was debt-free at Q2 FY24 and Q4 FY26, and net debt free with cash of ₹530 cr as on 30 June 2026.
16. ROE and ROCE above 20% Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided strong ROE and ROCE of more than 20%, with sustainable return metrics above 20% as product development investments completed. ROE printed 17% in FY23, then 15%, 16% and 16.7% through FY26, while ROCE reached 20.8% only in FY26.
17. Order book of at least 3 years of revenue On track - At the Q1 FY25 call, management aimed to build an order book of at least three years, versus one and a half to two years then, in the next two to three years' time. The order book including negotiated orders reached ₹2,654 cr as of Q1 FY27 against FY26 revenue of ₹925 cr, approaching the \~₹2,775 cr three-year equivalent.
18. FY27 EBITDA margin of 35-40% On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management reiterated maintaining EBITDA margins in the 35% to 40% range for FY27, as guided in the Q4 FY26 PPT. Q1 FY27 EBITDA margin printed 27.0% with EBITDA of ₹31.4 cr, down 2.2% YoY, attributed to temporary customer approval delays.
19. FY27 revenue growth of 20-25% On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management reiterated full year guidance of 20% to 25% revenue growth, first committed at Q4 FY26. Q1 FY27 revenue was ₹116 cr, up 17% year-on-year, with management attributing the modest quarter to temporary delays in customer approvals.
20. FY27 fresh order inflows of ₹2,000 cr On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management remained confident of securing around ₹2,000 cr of fresh order inflows during FY27, over and above orders already received and negotiated. Q1 FY27 order inflow was ₹117.2 cr, with over ₹226 cr received since the start of FY27.
21. Ashwini/LLTR back-to-back contract in next 3 to 6 months Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected the Ashwini/LLTR radar flow-down from BEL to result in a contract "in the next 3 to 6 months' time", reiterated at Q1 FY26. No Ashwini back-to-back contract is disclosed through Q1 FY27, with the negotiated-orders program stretched by more than 1.5 years.
22. BrahMos seeker production orders after flight test Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected BrahMos seeker contracts to convert "hopefully over the course of this year" once flight trials were done, with the textbook flight completed before the Q4 FY25 call. Development seeker orders were received and delivered by March 2026, but the commercial production order was still pending at Q1 FY27, expected that financial year.
23. FY26 order intake of ₹1,000-2,000 cr Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided order inflow of ₹1,000 cr to ₹2,000 cr during FY26, later affirming \~₹1,500 cr at Q1 and Q2 FY26. FY26 order inflows came in at approximately ₹1,121 cr, up 216% year-on-year, within the guided range.
24. FY26 PAT growth of 20% Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided FY26 bottom-line growth of 20%, reiterated at Q1 FY26 as "We wanted to retain 20%, 25% bottom line growth". FY26 PAT reached ₹271 cr, up 22% year-on-year, above the guided floor.
25. FY26 EBITDA margin of 35-40% Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided FY26 EBITDA margins at 35% to 40%, reiterated at Q1 FY26. FY26 EBITDA margin printed 40.1%, meeting the upper end, after Q3 FY26 printed 44%.
26. FY26 revenue growth of 20-25% Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided FY26 revenue growth of "25% to 30% -- or 20% to 25%", reiterated at Q1 FY26 and Q2 FY26. FY26 revenue reached ₹925 cr, growth of 31% year-on-year, above the guided range.
27. ₹200 cr spend on QIP product development On track - At the Q4 FY24 PPT, management planned to spend around ₹200 cr on new technology and product development, about 20% to 25% of overall revenue that year. Investment reached more than ₹135 cr by Q1 FY27, with QIP product-development utilization of ₹83.22 cr of ₹167.24 cr as on 31 March 2025 and products at advanced stage.
28. Capex of ₹150 cr over next two years On track - At the Q1 FY25 call, the CFO planned capex of "another about 150 crores plus over the next two years", after \~₹100-plus crores guided at Q4 FY24. Around ₹185 cr was invested on capex over the last five years as of Q1 FY27, with foundation work on the new building started and more than ₹200 cr plus now guided over the next 2 years.
29. FY25 EBITDA margin of 35-40% Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected FY25 EBITDA margin of around 35% to 40%, reiterated each quarter through Q3 FY25. FY25 EBITDA margin printed 38.8%, within the range, with management stating the full-year EBITDA was "as per our guidance".
30. FY25 PAT growth of 30% Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected bottom line growth of probably about 30% for FY25, reiterated at Q1 and Q2 FY25. At Q4 FY25 the Chairman stated "We told only about 20%", and FY25 PAT of ₹222 cr, up 22% year-on-year, was reported as in line with guidance.
31. FY25 revenue growth of 20-25% Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided to 20-25% revenue growth for FY25, reiterated through Q3 FY25 as "firmly on track". FY25 revenue reached ₹7,084 Mn (≈₹708 cr), up 36.3% year-on-year, above the guided range.
32. FY25 order intake of ₹1,000 cr Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected another ₹1,000 crores order intake during FY25, refined to "800 to 1,000 crores this year" at Q1 FY25. FY25 order inflow was ₹355.1 cr, with management acknowledging fresh intake during Q4 was lower than anticipated and the year's order book modest.
33. FY24 order intake of ₹600-700 cr Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management expected more than 600 to 700 crores of order inflow contracts in FY24, mostly Data Patterns products. Q3 FY24 order inflow alone was ₹990 cr, the FY24 order book grew 17% YoY to ₹1,083 cr, and management reported inflows aligned with guidance.
34. Q4 revenue share reduced below 50% Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management expected the last-quarter share of turnover, \~50-55% in FY22, "is now gradually going to 40%". Q4 share fell to 41% in FY23 and 35% in FY24 and 37% in FY26, but spiked back to 55% in FY25.
35. 95% of order book executed in two years Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management expected \~95% of the \~₹880 cr order book to be executed in the next two years, with \~50% of the \~₹1,000 cr book in FY24 at Q4 FY23. FY24 revenue of ₹520 cr plus FY25 revenue of ₹780 cr totaled ₹1,300 cr against the \~₹1,000-1,083 cr starting book, indicating execution within the window.
36. Exports at 10% of revenue this year Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management said "we should do about 10% exports this year", up from 5% to 7% then. Export order book reached 10% to 15% of the total by Q1 FY25 and ₹106-107 cr by FY25, but the export order book declined to ₹53 cr at Q4 FY26 and ₹39 cr at Q1 FY27.
37. Arudhra back-to-back order expected this year Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management said Arudhra BEL was in negotiations and the back-to-back order should flow this year. The order was delayed from FY23 to FY24, and the Arudhra radar order was received in FY24 for execution over the next three years per BEL's schedule.
38. Himshakti back-to-back orders this calendar year Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management said Himshakti BEL signing was expected "any time" with back-to-back subsystem orders to happen this calendar year. The program was delayed from FY23 to FY24, and through Q1 FY27 only the original HimShakti products were delivered, with no back-to-back production order disclosed.
39. BrahMos Fire Control System order of \~₹60 cr Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management said BrahMos Fire Control System negotiations were completed with an order expected of nearly ₹60 crores. A production order worth ₹57 crores from BrahMos and other programs was received in Q3 FY23, with further FCS BrahMos orders of ₹460 Mn in FY26.
40. LCA Mk 1A cockpit display order of \~₹73-74 cr in coming weeks Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management said the LCA Mk 1A cockpit display negotiation was completed Saturday for about ₹75 crores, with the contract expected "in the next coming weeks", then "this month" at Q2 FY23. The \~₹73-74 cr order sat within ₹128 cr of negotiated orders awaiting LOI at Q2 FY23, and by Q1 FY26 deliveries to HAL on the existing order had not happened.
41. Order book to cross ₹1,000 cr Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management stated the order book would cross ₹1,000 crores once negotiations converted, the highest in Data Patterns' history. Including ₹128.13 cr negotiated, the book reached ₹1,012 cr as on 31 Oct 2022, and exceeded ₹1,000 cr on a reported basis during Q2 FY24.
42. New facility operational from Q4 FY23 Partial - At the Q3 FY22 call, management said radar integration would start in the new facility "in the next 10 days", with the Q2 FY23 PPT showing it fully operational from Q3 onwards. The first part was used from March 2022 and the facility was commissioned in Q4 FY23, one quarter later than the Q3 target, and fully operational for 15 months as of Q4 FY24.
43. Order mix of 70% production, 20% development, 10-12% service Partial - At the Q3 FY22 call, management targeted an optimal order mix of about 70% production, 20% development, and 10-12% post/AMC service revenue. Production reached 61% by Q1 FY27, but development stayed at 30-43% across FY24-FY26 and service at 4-5%, below the 10-12% target.
44. Working capital of 280-300 days medium term Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, the CFO confirmed working capital in the medium term should be between 280 to 300 days, reiterated at Q2 FY23. Working capital improved from 329 days in FY22 to 275 days in FY23, but the cash conversion cycle deteriorated to 428 days in FY25 and 365 days in FY26, with Q4 FY26 guidance of 320 to 340 days going forward.
45. Revenue growth of 25-30% in FY23 and FY24 Partial - At the Q3 FY22 call, management stated for FY23 and FY24, as long as revenues go up 30-40%, current EBITDA and PAT percentages should be met, with 25% to 30% growth guided from Q4 FY22. FY23 revenue grew 46% to ₹453.4 cr, above guidance, but FY24 revenue grew 15% to ₹520 cr, below the revised 20-25% target.
46. EBITDA margin of 40%+ sustained Partial - At the Q3 FY22 call, management stated "Our typical EBITDA is around 40-plus percentage. We will continue to do that", with the CFO confident of sustaining the 40% plus margin. Margins held at or above 40% in FY22 (45.3%), FY24 (42.6%) and FY26 (40.1%) but fell to 37.9% in FY23 and 38.8% in FY25, and Q1 FY27 printed 27.0%.
47. Gross margin in the 65-70% range Partial - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided gross margin in the range of 65 to 70%, though not uniform and dependent on projects handled. Gross margin was 72% in FY22 and 68.2% in FY24, but fell to 62% in FY23 and 61% in FY25, breaching the lower bound, before printing 78.9% in Q1 FY27.
48. Nine PAR radars delivered, first by March 2022 then one per quarter Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management stated the ₹380 cr PAR contract includes ₹254 cr for nine radars, the first planned for March 2022 then one every quarter, saying "we are on time; we are a bit ahead of schedule". Three systems were accepted by Q3 FY23, and all nine precision approach radars were delivered and installed to MOD for Army and Navy by FY24.
49. Order intake of ₹500+ cr in next 12 months Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management stated more than ₹500 crores worth of orders were expected in the next 12 months, mostly production contracts. FY23 order inflow reached ₹901.4 cr, up more than 3x YoY and the highest ever, with the order book at ₹924 cr as of March 31, 2023.