D B Corp Ltd Q4 FY2025 Concall Summary

Key Takeaways

• Election base effect masks underlying softness: FY25 revenue fell 2.5% YoY to ₹2,421 cr, but the real story is a Q4 demand lull across auto, real estate and education that management calls a stretched ground.
• Circulation strategy is working, but at a cost: The 'Jeeto 14 Crores' scheme drove sequential copy additions in Q4, yet promotional spend pushed other expenses higher; management targets 3-4% circulation growth in FY26.
• Government advertising was the swing factor: The absence of Lok Sabha election spend in Q4 FY25 created a hole management declined to size, calling it "quite a money" and the highest chunk of prior-year revenue.
• Digital is growing users, not revenue: MAUs hit 1.96 crore with an internal target of 5 crore, but blanket monetization is explicitly deferred until critical mass is reached, which is "still a long way to go."
• What to watch next quarter: Whether April's double-digit ad growth sustains past the Akshay Tritiya calendar shift, and if real estate and auto spending recover from their Q4 freeze.

Advertising Revenue: The Election Hangover and Q4 Lull

• Government advertising drove the decline: The Lok Sabha election in Q4 FY24 created a high base; in Q4 FY25, government and political advertising fell roughly 25% for the full year, and management confirmed the Q4 hit was severe because election-linked spend vanished.
• Core categories weakened when it mattered: Automobile, which grew 16% for the full year, turned negative by 3-5% in Q4; education and real estate, expected to grow much higher, went flat as the market entered a three-month lull from December through February.
• GEC channels pulled back: Most general entertainment channels stopped advertising because they are "facing the heat," removing another source of demand.
• Ad yield growth was negligible: Management acknowledged this is an area where the company and industry must work to increase rates, describing Q4 yield improvement as "nothing significant."
• April recovery carries a calendar caveat: Double-digit advertising growth in April was partly helped by Akshay Tritiya falling on April 30 this year versus May 11 last year, shifting some spend into the month.

Girish Agarwal: "Unfortunately, the Quarter 4 numbers, if you look at of the other industries also has not been very good, whether it's FMCG or auto and all that real estate. So, looks like that the ground is stretched."

Circulation: Growth Achieved, Cost Incurred

• Sequential improvement, flat year-on-year: Circulation grew from Q3 to Q4, and Q4 numbers were better than Q2 and Q3, but compared to Q4 FY24 they were almost flat.
• 'Jeeto 14 Crores' drove the uptick: The reader scheme launched in January's first week, with uptake building from February and March, supported by ground-level acquisition efforts across markets.
• Promotional spend pushed other expenses higher: Circulation promotional expenses tied to the scheme, plus digital promotion in various markets and roughly ₹20 cr of regular expense increases, lifted the other-expenses line.
• FY26 target is 3-4% circulation growth: Management expects much more than 2%, and sees closing at 3-4% as a big achievement; schemes will run full year starting August, after the summer lull.

Girish Agarwal: "Even if we are able to close the market at 3%-4% growth, that will be a big achievement."

Category-Level Performance

• Real estate dynamics in Tier II-III: Owner-driven developer companies did bumper Diwali sales, then went slow for 3-4 months because they "had enough"; concern returned only from February, and April went okay.

Digital: Audience First, Revenue Later

• Audience scale is building: Dainik Bhaskar holds the number one position among Hindi and Gujarati news apps, with MAUs reaching 1.96 crore as of March 2025; the internal target is 5 crore MAUs.
• Monetization is deliberately deferred: Management will not take any blanket monetization call until critical mass is achieved, describing that milestone as "still a long way to go." Experimentation is underway in different markets and cohorts.
• Strategy will be mixed when it arrives: The eventual model will combine subscription revenue and advertising revenue, but no timeline is set.
• English Bhaskar app launched: Rolled out in January to positive reception, but numbers remain too small to disclose.
• Digital promotion costs are rising: Part of the other-expenses increase came from digital promotion across 14 states, now including Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
• Profitability metrics are undisclosed: Management declined to share digital profitability or breakeven status, citing competitive sensitivity and a board recommendation to withhold detailed digital numbers.

Girish Agarwal: "We will not take any blanket call till the time we have a critical mass which we believe is still a long way to go."

Costs, Newsprint and the Margin Outlook

• Newsprint prices expected to stay benign: Management expects prices to remain stable or come down by perhaps a percent; no major concern on container availability as of now, though the next 2-3 months bear watching.
• Rupee impact on newsprint is an unknown: When asked whether rupee appreciation could reverse the favorable newsprint trend, management declined to comment on international market volatility and currency impacts.
• Other expenses should moderate in FY26: The Q4 run-rate for other expenses is expected to be slightly lower in the coming year, as some Q4 promotional spend was one-time or seasonal.
• Digital investment continues: Digital promotion in various markets is an ongoing cost, not a one-quarter event, as the company expands its mobile app market outreach to 14 states.

FY26 Triggers and the Growth Bet

• Income tax relief is a hoped-for tailwind: Lower income tax rates took effect from April, and management sees people hoping for improvement in disposable income, though the benefit will only flow through from the new financial year.
• 8th Pay Commission is a confidence driver: The anticipated rollout is expected to put money in people's hands and then into the market; management is confident this will help, though the timing of actual disbursement is uncertain.
• Normal monsoon forecast supports rural sentiment: A forecast normal monsoon is cited as a positive for rural spending and overall sentiment.
• Government advertising is unpredictable by nature: While management expects overall growth in government advertising this year because last year's spend was front-loaded before the code of conduct, it stressed that government advertising is "very difficult to predict."
• Double-digit overall growth is the endeavor: When asked whether double-digit company-level growth is the target for FY26, management confirmed "our endeavor is for that only."

Girish Agarwal: "Yes, but it's a government advertising, it's very difficult to predict. Yes, it's very difficult to predict the government approach advertising."

Guidance & Commitments

Key Metrics