Key Takeaways
- NIM troughed, one-offs cleared: Management declared NIM at 3.27% the bottom, with the RBI circular impact fully absorbed and penal interest reclassification now structural.
- Deposit franchise held firm in a tight market: Deposits grew 19.86% YoY while top-20 depositor concentration stayed at a comfortable 6.89%, and savings growth of 27% YoY powered a CASA ratio uptick.
- Cost-to-asset ratio is the declared investment phase: At 2.75%, management calls the level "frankly unsustainable" but is running elevated OPEX deliberately, betting that technology and people investments will sweat over the next six quarters.
- MFI pullback was a deliberate yield sacrifice: The bank cut its MFI-plus-BC book from 18% to 16% of AIB before stress broadened, accepting a NIM drag to protect asset quality.
- What to watch next quarter: Whether the promised 10–15 bps cost-to-asset reduction materialises in Q3, the pace of LAP mix shift versus home loans, and any early signal on the mortgage GNPA vintage roll-through.
Margin Walk & NIM Outlook
- Four-part NIM compression: Yield on advances fell because (1) a one-off RBI circular hit that ran into July and is now fully absorbed, (2) penal interest was reclassified as penal charges, a permanent single-digit-bps shift from NIM to fee income, (3) the bank deliberately slowed its high-yield MFI book, and (4) opportunistic co-lending added lower-yield assets at lower cost.
- Cost of funds stabilised: Cost of funds flattened from 7.19% to 7.17% and cost of deposits from 7.10% to 7.09%, exactly as management had predicted in the prior quarter. The borrowing strategy was reworked to align with deposit cost direction, using short-term CDs to match short-term assets.
- RBI demand-draft directive absorbed: From mid-Q2, the bank began charging interest only from when a demand draft is handed to the customer, taking a P&L hit from April 29 to mid-Q2. Management declined to quantify the bps impact.
- NIM floor called: With one-offs gone and execution actions starting to show, management "strongly believes" NIM is at the bottom end and sees no further downside risk, though cost of funds remains challenging.
Kutty: "Yes, you succinctly put it, yes. I would like to say what you said. So, the one-offs being gone and some of our executions starting to show results, I strongly believe that we are at the bottom end of the NIM and cost to deposits is continuing to hold at the current levels."
Asset Quality & Portfolio Choices
- Headline GNPA improved: Gross NPA fell from 3.36% to 3.29% and net NPA from 1.28% to 1.17%, contributing to the quarter's profit.
- Mortgage GNPA uptick is a known vintage problem: Sourcing quality in 2023 was not what the bank aspired to, and the 12–24 month bucket within home loans is where the weakness sits. Changes to LTV and income assessment norms for certain segments were made 4–5 months back, so new vintages are behaving better but the older errors will roll through.
- MFI pullback was pre-emptive: Management took a collective call early in Q2 to stop doing high-yield microfinance, dropping the MFI-plus-BC share from 18% to 16% of AIB. The bank is willing to take the growth and yield hit rather than risk an NPA build-up, and expects the MFI environment to take at least a year to normalise.
- SME and home-loan bucket-zero moves are noise, not signal: SME bucket zero slipped from 98.9% to 98.5%, a 4 bps deterioration, and home loans saw a 3 bps move. Management characterised both as business-as-usual, not a harbinger of stress.
Kutty: "So, in mortgages, we have made some changes on our LTV and income assessment norms for certain segments. So, that change we made about four to five months back. But the errors that we made earlier will have an impact. And we will have to go through it. So, there will be a delay, but I don't think there'll be a denial."
Fee Income & Engagement Strategy
- Core fee jumped 22% QoQ: Core fee income rose from ₹114 cr in Q1 to ₹139 cr in Q2, driven by a deliberate shift in engagement strategy from "fill it, shut it, forget it" to active customer interaction.
- Three structural drivers: Third-party distribution through the wealth setup, an overdraft product with higher ticket sizes (₹30L moving toward ₹50L), and the savings-account sweep product for self-employed proprietors are all repeatable and sustainable fee engines.
- Savings growth of 27% YoY is the engagement proof-point: the unique product sweeps current-account money into savings accounts for proprietors who use the funds for transactions and do not keep balances high enough to earn 8%.
- Penal-charge reclassification is permanent: The structural shift of penal interest into penal charges moves single-digit bps from NIM to fee income and will not reverse. Management did not disclose the absolute fee contribution.
- Fee-to-assets ambition: A 1% fee-income ratio on a steady-state basis is achievable; the current 1.23% is discounted, and a four-quarter average of 1% is within reach.
Operating Expenditure & The Investment Bet
- Cost-to-average-asset at 2.75% is deliberate: Management has invested heavily over the last 12–18 months in people (11,901 employees) and technology, including upgrades to Finacle, the transaction banking system, FinOne lending system, TCS treasury, SIEM cybersecurity, compass AML, and behavioural biometrics.
- Cost-income ratio improved 3% QoQ from 67.8% to 64.3%, showing early operating leverage even as the absolute investment base stays high.
- The investment thesis will be tested over six quarters: Management is explicit that cutting cost would be easy but is not the idea; the bank wants to keep growing at the current pace and is betting that both people and technology will sweat harder. The next 2–3 quarters should deliver 10–15 bps of cost-to-asset improvement, with a target of 2.6% for the next full financial year.
Kutty: "The 275 is frankly unsustainable. And if you see most of our efforts are in, we are thinking it's investment. Time will tell if it's investment or cost."
Balance Sheet & Franchise Strength
- All three engines growing at ~19.5%: Balance sheet, advances and deposits are moving in lockstep, with deposit growth of 19.86% YoY achieved in tough liquidity conditions.
- Deposit franchise is granular and stable: Top 20 depositors sit at 6.89%, virtually unchanged from 6.88% a year ago, and the small-ticket, brick-by-brick structure of the franchise remains intact.
- Mortgage book is half home loans, half LAP: Management wants to tilt the mix toward higher-yield LAP, and on incremental origination is already ensuring business loans exceed home loans. Average ticket size is ₹28–30 lakhs with a target to reach ₹40–50 lakhs.
- Corporate book declined ~₹100 cr from the start of the year; any increased disbursement is short-term loans, with no change in strategy. CV lending is opportunistic and small, not a target segment.
- Promoter infusion of \$10 million is at the documentation stage, "almost at the tail end," and expected in Q3.
ROA Ambition & The Path Ahead
- ROA improved 11 bps QoQ and ROE moved from 10.93% to 12.65%, helped by benign NPA numbers and the core fee uplift.
- Full-year ROA of 1% in FY25-26 is the declared milestone: Management frames it as a pit stop, not an end-of-journey target, with the next leg driven by ramping LAP over home loans and the overdraft engine over TReDS.
- Yield-versus-NPA trade-off is explicit: The bank chose to take a yield hit on MFI and the demand-draft directive rather than risk an NPA hit, a stance management considers self-evident.
Kutty: "Milestone, rather than a target, Kartik. It's a pit stop before we start up our next journey."
Guidance & Commitments
| Commitment | Specifics | Timeline |
|---|---|---|
| NIM trajectory | At bottom end; no further downside risk; can only go up from 329 bps | From Q3 FY25 onward |
| Cost-to-average-asset reduction | 10–15 bps improvement from current 2.75% | Next 2–3 quarters |
| Cost-to-average-asset target | 2.6% | Next full financial year (April–March) |
| Full-year ROA | 1% | FY25-26 |
| Promoter capital infusion | \$10 million | Q3 FY25 |
| MFI normalisation | Environment to take at least a year to get back to normal; bank will not rush into high-yield MFI assets | ~Q2 FY26 or later |
| Mortgage mix shift | Incremental origination tilted toward LAP and business loans over home loans; no fixed target mix | Ongoing |
| Fee-income ratio | Four-quarter average of 1% achievable | Steady-state, undated |
Key Metrics
| Metric | Q2 FY25 |
|---|---|
| Profit after tax | In excess of ₹155 cr |
| Net interest margin | 3.27%, down from prior periods; one-offs, MFI slowdown, co-lending mix |
| Cost-to-income ratio | 64.3%, reduced from 67.8% QoQ |
| ROA | 0.93%, improved 11 bps QoQ |
| ROE | 12.65%, up from 10.93% in Q1 |
| Balance sheet growth | 19.49% YoY |
| Deposit growth | 19.86% YoY |
| CASA ratio | 25.61%, improved from 25.04% |
| Savings growth | 27% YoY |
| Gross NPA | 3.29%, down from 3.36% a year ago |
| Net NPA | 1.17%, down 11 bps from 1.28% |
| Core fee income (commission, exchange, brokerage) | ₹139 cr, up from ₹114 cr in Q1 |
| Cost of funds | 7.17%, flattened from 7.19% in Q1 |
| Cost of deposits | 7.09%, down from 7.10% in Q1 |
| Cost to average assets | 2.75% |
| Credit cost | 27 bps; model suggests 30–35 bps is normalised |
| MFI plus BC share of AIB book | 16%, down from 18% in Q1 |
| Profit on sale of investments | ₹52 cr, up from ₹14–17 cr in prior quarters |