1. Acquisition of 51% stake in Venus India Asset-Finance Pending - At the Q4 FY26 PPT, management announced the execution of an SPA to purchase 4,72,87,537 equity shares of Venus India Asset-Finance Private Limited, representing 51% of the issued and paid-up share capital, subject to statutory and regulatory approvals. The SPA was executed but no disclosure of completion or closing is in the record as of the Q4 FY26 PPT date.
2. No major capex in FY26 Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management stated there was no major capex plan for FY26, with focus on cane development. FY26 CWIP was ₹12.54 cr, up marginally from ₹8.79 cr in FY25, and no major plant expansion or new project capex was disclosed (SQL).
3. Recovery returning to FY23-24 levels by FY27 On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected that by FY27, the company could reach the same sort of recovery numbers as in FY23-24. FY26 gross recovery was 11.31% versus 11.63% in FY24 and 12.04% in FY23, an improvement over FY25's 10.94% but still below FY23-24 levels with the FY27 horizon not yet reached.
4. FY26 cane crush higher than FY25 Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected cane crush in FY26 to be higher than FY25, with a better number available in Q3. FY26 cane crushed was 27.96 lakh tons versus 28.49 lakh tons in FY25, a decline rather than an increase.
5. FY26 ethanol production higher than FY25 Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected ethanol production in FY26 to be higher than FY25, citing more feedstock and full-year operation of the maize plant. FY26 total ethanol production was 673.34 lakh BL versus 678.37 lakh BL in FY25, marginally lower.
6. FY24 cane crush - at least same as FY23 (\~39 lakh tonnes) Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management stated the plan was to crush higher in FY24 than the \~39 lakh tons crushed in FY23, and to ensure Dhampur did not crush lower despite the new Bindal Agro plant. FY24 cane crushed was 36.69 lakh tons versus 39.02 lakh tons in FY23, a decline of \~2.33 lakh tons.
7. Buyback or dividend - decision within 6 months (from Mar 2022) Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management stated they would see FY23 numbers and then decide on a dividend or buyback over the next six months. A buyback of ₹30 cr was executed in January 2024, a second buyback of ₹20 cr was executed in FY26, and an interim dividend of ₹2/share was declared in FY26, but the original 6-month horizon from March 2022 passed without action.
8. Margins will definitely improve in FY24 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management stated margins would definitely improve in the next year due to the new distillery operating for the full year. FY24 consolidated EBITDA margin was 11.1%, flat versus FY23 at 11.1%, and OPM was 12.28% versus 12.33% in FY23 - essentially flat.
9. No major capex in FY24 Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management stated there were no major capex plans for FY24, as sufficient capacity existed. FY24 CWIP declined from ₹103 cr in FY23 to ₹17.21 cr, and no major new project was announced or disclosed in FY24 (SQL).
10. Cane variety shift - reduce CO 238 to ≤50% at both plants within 3 years (from Mar 2023) Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management stated the plan was to have at least 50% of cane varieties other than 238 at both plants within the next 3 years. As of Q4 FY25, Rajpura 238 was down to \~48% but Dhampur was at 65%, meaning Rajpura met the ≤50% target while Dhampur had not by the March 2026 deadline.
11. Cane crush at Rajpura - target of 2 crore quintals (from 1.23 crore), expansion when 1.6 crore reached Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management stated the next big target was to take cane crush at Rajpura from 1.23 crore quintals to 2 crore quintals, with a new plant considered when \~1.6 crore was reached. Rajpura crushed 1.28 crore quintals in SS 2022-23, and no later Rajpura-specific crush disclosure reaching 1.6 crore or 2 crore quintals is in the record.
12. Specialised chemicals - exploration over 6-12 months (from Jun 2022) Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management stated specialised chemicals was one area Dhampur wanted to explore over the next 6 to 12 months, with experts being hired and the field studied. No disclosure of entry into specialised chemicals is in the record; the chemicals segment remained ethyl acetate throughout.
13. FY24 ethanol supply to OMCs - 14-15 crore litres (full year), \~16 crore litres including levy Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided that after expansion, they expected to sell \~14-15 crore litres to OMCs in FY24, and could expand to \~16 crore litres including levy. FY24 total ethanol sales were 12.32 crore litres, falling short of the original 14-16 crore litre target.
14. FY23 ethanol supply to OMCs - \~12 crore litres Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided the plan for the next sugar year was \~12 crore litres of ethanol to OMCs. FY23 total ethanol sales were 8.98 crore bulk litres, and while management revised guidance downward to \~8.5 crore litres by Q3 FY23, the original \~12 crore litre OMC target was not met.
15. Dhampur Bio Organics listing - by third week of August 2022 Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management stated Dhampur Bio Organics had received in-principal approval from stock exchanges, a request letter had been filed with SEBI, and it was expected to get listed by the third week of August 2022. No disclosure of Dhampur Bio Organics being listed is in the record.
16. CEO appointment - joining by end of June 2022 Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management stated the CEO was going to join at the end of June 2022. No disclosure of a CEO joining in June 2022 or thereafter is in the record.
17. Distillery expansion - 130 KLPD on C-heavy molasses + 100 KLPD grain, total 500 KLPD, by start of ethanol supply year 2022-23 Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided a distillery expansion of 130 KLPD on C-heavy molasses with dual-feed capacity of 100 KLPD on grain, taking total capacity to \~500 KLPD, to be implemented before the start of ethanol supply year 2022-23 at a cost of \~₹160 cr. The 130 KLPD molasses expansion was commissioned on 5 February 2023 and the 100 KLPD grain-based distillery on 13 June 2023, both after the start of ESY 2022-23.