1. UAE business - break even in FY27 Pending - At the Q3 FY26 call, management stated the UAE business is expected to break even in FY27. UAE operations remained subdued in Q3 FY26 with quarterly sales of ₹33 cr, and the FY27 horizon has not yet been reached.
2. US subsidiary capex - USD 5.5 million to add \~₹100 cr to topline by FY27-FY28 Pending - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided that USD 5.5 million capex in CP Industries would add approximately ₹100 cr to the topline once expansion is complete in FY27-FY28. Capex was approved in Q3 FY26, but the expansion is not yet complete and the FY27-FY28 horizon has not been reached.
3. Standalone revenue - ₹900-1,000 cr for FY26 Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided standalone revenue of ₹900 cr to ₹1,000 cr for the full year FY26. FY26 standalone revenue was ₹966.7 cr, falling within the guided range.
4. FY26 revenue growth - 10-15% Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided FY26 revenue growth of 10-15%. FY26 consolidated revenue was ₹1,471 cr, a decline of 1.9% YoY, missing the explicit growth target (SQL).
5. Mundra plant - peak revenue \~₹300 cr at 100% utilization Pending - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided peak revenue from the Mundra plant at 100% capacity utilization at \~₹300 cr. One production line was operational as of FY26, but the plant is still ramping up and the peak revenue target horizon has not been reached.
6. Egypt plant - peak revenue \~₹200 cr at 100% utilization Pending - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided peak revenue from the Egypt plant at 100% capacity utilization at \~₹200 cr, with peak utilization expected \~6 months after start. The Egypt plant was not yet operational as of Q4 FY26, and the peak revenue target horizon has not been reached.
7. India business margins - improve to 12-14% in coming quarters Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided that India business margins should improve to 12-14% in coming quarters, later revised to 12-15% from Q4 FY25 onwards. FY26 standalone EBITDA margin was 16.0%, exceeding the 12-14% target within the stated horizon.
8. FY25 EBITDA margin - work towards 14% Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management stated they would work towards a 14% EBITDA margin for the full year FY25. FY25 consolidated EBITDA margin was 11.7%, falling short of the 14% target (SQL).
9. FY25 revenue growth - at least 15-20% Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided consolidated revenue growth of at least 15% to 20% for the full year FY25. FY25 consolidated revenue grew 22.6% YoY to ₹1,499 cr, exceeding the explicit target (SQL).
10. EBITDA margin improvement of 2-3% over 2-3 years (to \~16-17%) Partial - At the Q2 FY24 call, management guided EBITDA margin improvement of 2-3% from current levels over the next 2-3 years, implying \~16-17% margin, later revised to a sustainable 15-17%. FY26 consolidated margin was 13.8%, a \~0.7% improvement from FY24's 13.1%, below the 2-3% target, though the FY27 horizon remains open (SQL).
11. Topline CAGR of 15-20% for next 2-3 years (FY26-FY27) Partial - At the Q2 FY24 call, management guided 15-20% CAGR topline growth for the next 2-3 years, later revising FY26 growth to 10-15% and setting a 15-20% target for FY27. FY25 revenue grew 22.6%, but FY26 declined 1.9%, resulting in a two-year CAGR of \~9.7% against the 15-20% target, with the FY27 horizon still open (SQL).
12. US business quarterly run-rate - ₹50-55 cr per quarter Partial - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided the US business run-rate should be ₹50-55 cr per quarter, later revised to an average of ₹70-80 cr per quarter for FY25. The US business achieved quarterly averages of \~₹93.5 cr in FY25 and \~₹93.4 cr in 9M FY26, exceeding both targets, though the guidance was never formally closed out.
13. Composite cylinders for India - launch and results Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management stated they expected to bring composite cylinders to India within 1-3 years, and at the Q1 FY24 call guided that good results were expected that year. The product was launched with PESO approval, but sales remained quite small and not so significant as of Q3 FY26, with no material revenue contribution disclosed.
14. Promoter debt reduction - 50% done, remaining 50% in next 1-2 quarters Pending - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided that promoter debt was almost 50% done, with the remaining 50% expected in the next one or two quarters, implying completion by Q2-Q3 FY23. Our record holds no subsequent disclosure on promoter debt reduction status in any transcript, filing, or announcement.
15. Hungary greenfield expansion - on hold, no investment made Pending - At the Q4 FY22 call, management stated the Hungary expansion was delayed due to the Russia situation and no investment had been made, later confirming it remained on hold. No investment has been committed, and the project’s status remains unresolved with no formal abandonment or revised timeline disclosed.
16. Egypt JV - project in place within \~2 years from Q4 FY22 Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided the Egypt JV would be in place within about two years, implying \~Q4 FY24, with the timeline later revised to commercial production by June-July 2025 and then to May 2026. As of Q4 FY26, construction was complete but the facility had not yet commenced commercial operations, running \~2+ years late.
17. Greenfield expansion at Mundra - initial phase commissioned by FY24, adding 2 lakh cylinders annually Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided the Mundra greenfield expansion would be commissioned by FY24, adding two lakh cylinders annually, with the timeline later revised to FY26. One production line commenced operations during FY26, but the original FY24 deadline was missed and the remaining two lines were not yet operational as of Q4 FY26.
18. Volume growth of \~10-15% for FY23 Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided volume growth of around 10% to 15% for FY23. FY23 consolidated revenue declined 24.98% YoY, implying volumes fell significantly short of the 10-15% growth target (SQL).
19. Brownfield Phase II capacity expansion - commissioned by Q2 FY23, adding \~1 lakh cylinders Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided the second phase of brownfield capacity expansion would be commissioned by Q2 FY23, adding about 1 lakh cylinder capacity. The expansion was confirmed operational at the Q2 FY23 call, increasing total capacity by 1 lakh cylinders as guided.
20. Sustainable EBITDA margin - 20-24% on a full-year basis Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided that the sustainable EBITDA margin shall be in the range of 20-24% on a full-year basis, a target progressively lowered to 12-17% in subsequent calls. The original range was achieved in FY22 (23.26% consolidated EBITDA margin per SQL), but was missed in FY23-FY26, with FY26 margin at 13.81% (SQL).