Key Takeaways
- Strong H1 despite a quiet Q2: Bookings hit Rs. 88.1 crores with no new launch, pushing H1 FY26 bookings up 91% YoY on the back of Q1's successful launches.
- Execution engine is delivering: Collections stayed healthy, construction spend rose 11% YoY, and home deliveries surged 95% YoY to 90 units, signaling that the project pipeline is converting into completions.
- A mega-launch is imminent: The Rs. 1,000 crore GDV Solano Gardens township in Lucknow is awaiting final RERA and environmental nods, with a launch expected within weeks; it is the single biggest catalyst for the next growth leg.
- Realization dip is a mix artifact, not a trend: Average realization fell to ~₹6,000/sq ft from ~₹6,500/sq ft because the quarter's revenue recognition tilted toward lower-priced EWS product; management expects a reversion next quarter.
- What to watch next quarter: The Solano Gardens launch and the start of Imperia Phase II revenue recognition, both of which management expects to report by the next earnings call.
The Solano Gardens Catalyst
- Scale of the opportunity: The 50-acre township on New Jail Road, Lucknow, carries an estimated GDV of Rs. 1,000 crores and will be phased over many years with plotted development, villas, group housing and possibly senior living. Average realization over the project's life is expected to match the current portfolio average.
- Launch timeline is tight: The RERA application has been submitted and only environment clearance and RERA registration remain. Management expects registration this month or next, with a launch within 3-4 weeks of that, starting with villas this financial year.
- This is the bookings bridge to ₹500 crores: Management stated this year's bookings should cross ₹500 crores because of Solano Gardens, up from a new normal of ₹300+ crores that has already been established.
- The aspirational goal is higher still: On a stabilized basis, the target is much more than ₹500 crores annually, though management will not commit to a timeline until the new project pipeline is closer to launch.
Bajaj: "I do not expect prices to be doubling in 2 years, but potentially absorption numbers should be doubling in 2-3 years if the right kind of supply came in."
Revenue Recognition & Margin Trajectory
- Imperia Phase II is the near-term margin driver: Revenue recognition is expected to begin in Q3 or Q4 FY26, hopefully Q3, and will carry through for 3-4 quarters. Management guided to ~30% EBITDA margins over the next 12-18 months with Imperia 2 as the main recognition project.
- Latitude 27 is the next big one: After Imperia 2 runs its course, Latitude 27 will become the next major revenue recognition project.
- The Q2 realization dip explained: Realization fell to ~₹6,000/sq ft because the quarter's revenue mix included more EWS/LIG product from the Saksham project alongside the high-GP twin towers project. The weighted gross profit impact was a one-quarter event that will revert.
- Eldeco Select is recognized but not yet closed: Revenue has been booked though the project still sits in "ongoing projects" because the completion certificate is pending; it should move to completed projects.
- Bareilly cost recovery imminent: Eldeco City Bareilly is expected to recover its principal plus committed IRR, an amount of about Rs. 65-70 crores, in the current quarter or maximum next quarter.
The Lucknow Market & Brand Premium
- An undersupplied market with a specific demand band: Strong demand exists for quality housing in the ₹60 lakhs to ₹1.5 crores range, but supply from Eldeco and other players has not kept pace. Prices have not risen despite the supply constraint because demand is concentrated at that price point; beyond ₹2-4 crores the market is very limited.
- The brand premium has structurally widened: What was a 5-10% pricing premium a decade ago has expanded to 20-30% post-RERA and COVID-19, as the market consolidated toward dependable players. Management observes this premium compresses in good markets and expands in soft ones, making the brand more valuable in downturns.
- Trinity is being held back deliberately: Sales have stalled because the company is not actively promoting the project, waiting instead for common areas and the sample apartment to be ready in February. Management expects both price realization and absorption to pick up after the unveiling.
Bajaj: "What used to be 5% or 10% is now as much as 20% to 30%, which if you look at it, is a phenomenal premium, which one gets for the same product."
Bajaj: "We are in a competitive market. Those pressures will always be... So, it is our job to show them value and give them value for money even at a higher price point."
Land Pipeline & Geographic Expansion
- Aggregation is accelerating: Land aggregated for new projects increased to 36.8 acres, with another 35 acres under aggregation and disclosed in the presentation. Management wants to increase this further before moving to the next stage of approvals.
- Gorakhpur is the new frontier: The company has term sheets out and token advances given for outright land purchases in a market with no national players and scarce data. Absorption numbers are not yet at expected levels for an emerging city, but management sees upside given infrastructure improvements.
- Surprising land pricing: When asked about average land valuation in Gorakhpur, management noted it is "surprisingly similar to Lucknow," not at the lower end as an analyst had assumed.
Portfolio Composition & Disclosures
- H1 FY26 sales were driven by two projects: Eldeco Hanging Gardens, an upper-mid-income project at ~₹6,500-6,800/sq ft, and Skywalk at a slightly lower ~₹5,500-6,000/sq ft. Management described the mix qualitatively but did not provide a numerical breakdown when asked.
- Ready-to-use inventory disclosure coming: When asked for the value of ready-to-use unsold units within the ~₹600 crores inventory, management declined to give the number on the call but committed to changing the presentation format to disclose it next time.
- Eldeco Housing and EIPL remain separate: No parent-subsidiary relationship exists; management and shareholding are separate, there is no geographical overlap, and the royalty agreement for corporate services from the unlisted entity will continue post-IPO.
Guidance & Commitments
| Commitment | Specifics | Timeline |
|---|---|---|
| Solano Gardens launch | Launch within 3-4 weeks of RERA registration, starting with villas | This month or next month (RERA registration); this financial year (villa launch) |
| Imperia Phase II revenue recognition | Begin recognizing revenue | Q3 or Q4 FY26, hopefully Q3 |
| Eldeco City Bareilly cost recovery | Recover principal plus committed IRR (~Rs. 65-70 crores) | Current quarter or maximum next quarter |
| EBITDA margin | ~30% margins as Imperia 2 is the main recognition project | Next 12-18 months |
| FY26 bookings | Cross ₹500 crores due to Solano Gardens launch | This financial year |
| Ready-to-use inventory disclosure | Change presentation format to disclose value | Next presentation |
| Eldeco Trinity sample apartment | Ready for unveiling, expect uptick in price and absorption | February (about 3 months) |
Key Metrics
| Metric | Q2 FY26 |
|---|---|
| Consolidated total income | ₹35.3 cr, vs ₹36.4 cr in Q2 FY25 |
| Consolidated EBITDA | ₹5.5 cr, EBITDA margin 15.7% |
| Profit after tax | ₹2.6 cr |
| EBITDA margin outlook | ~30% over next 12–18 months, driven by Imperia 2 revenue recognition |
| Booking value | ₹88.1 cr, vs ₹102.9 cr in Q2 FY25 |
| H1 FY26 booking value | ₹309 cr, up 91% YoY |
| Collections | ₹91.3 cr, up 76% YoY |
| Homes delivered | 90 homes, totalling 1.19 lakh sq ft, up 95% YoY |
| H1 FY26 deliveries | 2.03 lakh sq ft across 191 homes |
| Construction spend | ₹37.3 cr, up 11% YoY |
| H1 FY26 construction spend | ₹76.6 cr |
| Eldeco Solano Gardens GDV | ₹1,000 cr, spread over 50 acres |
| Eldeco Trinity realization | ~₹8,000 per sq ft on super area, ~₹12,000 per sq ft on carpet |
| Brand pricing premium | 20% to 30%, up from 5% to 10% historically |
| Target GP margin (Trinity, Solano) | 25% to 30% |