Key Takeaways
- Turnaround quarter, led by MFI: Microfinance collection efficiency hit 99.4% in December, driving a sharp reversal in slippages and a 43 bps QoQ NIM jump to 6.72%.
- Cost of funds tailwind is material: The bank has repriced 65% of its deposit book, cutting TD rates by 95 bps, with an exit target of 85% repriced and further room to fall before stabilising.
- Credit cost is normalising fast: Net slippages fell to a six-quarter low of 2.52%, and credit cost dropped to 1.88%, with management guiding a downward trajectory into Q4 and FY27.
- Growth engine restarts in FY27: Advances growth guided at 20–25% next year, with SBL disbursements already ramping monthly and all non-MFI products now profitable or on the path.
- What to watch next quarter: Whether the Q4 exit ROA of 1% lands, the pace of the remaining deposit repricing, and any update on the universal bank licence application.
Microfinance: The Turnaround Story
- Collection efficiency restored: The shift to a monthly repayment mode (EMIs by the 15th) now covers ~63% of the MFI book, and X Bucket collection efficiency reached 99.4% in December, a level that signals the stress cycle has broken.
- Portfolio deliberately shrunk: MFI exposure is down to 8.5% of advances (ex-DA) from 20% in March 2024, a conscious derisking that management intends to hold around 10% to capture yield without inviting disproportionate volatility.
- Industry guardrails are helping: Improved lending discipline and MFIN guardrails, combined with a focus on new-to-credit customers with lower leverage and reduced caseload per staff, have structurally lowered the risk profile of the remaining book.
- 1–90 DPD improved dramatically: The early-bucket stress indicator fell from 5.40% to 2.14% QoQ, confirming that the pipeline of future NPAs is thinning fast.
Vasudevan: "The X Bucket collection efficiency on a POS basis, has moved up to 99.4% in December."
NIM & Funding Cost: The Repricing Tailwind
- NIM jumped 43 bps QoQ to 6.72%: The driver was twofold: MFI stabilisation stopped the yield-side drag, and cost of funds declined as the deposit book repriced lower.
- Deposit repricing is a multi-quarter lever: 65% of the book was repriced by December, with the Q4 exit expected at ~85%. The SA rate fell from 6.08% in April to 5.1% by Q3 exit, while the TD rate dropped 95 bps to 7.3% as 444-day deposits rolled into 888-day deposits at lower rates.
- Further room to fall: Management expects cost of funds to decline further before stabilising, with one more rate cut anticipated (likely in April, not February) and the bank ready to follow.
- NIM outlook is stable-to-up: With the MFI drag removed and funding costs still falling, management sees no downward pressure on NIM and expects a marginal tick-up from the current ~6.7% range, though it stops short of giving a precise target.
Vasudevan: "We do not expect a downward pressure on NIM any longer because of MFI going down."
Asset Quality: Slippages Peaking, Credit Cost Falling
- Net slippages at a six-quarter low: At 2.52% (vs 3.78% in Q2), the headline number reflects improvement across both MFI and SBL books, with the Karnataka SBL stress that hit 2–3 quarters ago now reversed.
- Credit cost declined to 1.88%: Down from 2.16% QoQ, and management expects the downward trajectory to continue through Q4, with a FY27 full-year range of 1.5–1.7% and a Q4 FY27 exit below 1.5%.
- SBL portfolio quality normalising: X Bucket improved from 97.5% to 98.5%, DPDs and GNPA reduced, and monthly disbursements rose steadily from ₹440 cr (Q1) to ₹612 cr (Q3) as the earlier recalibration in Karnataka and certain product segments concluded.
- Used CV segment remains resilient: A 15-year track record with no serious portfolio quality issues, built on small operators and light commercial vehicles, differentiates the bank from peers with new or heavy CV exposure.
- ECL transition looks favourable: Based on draft RBI norms, the bank's ECL working shows a positive impact versus IRAC norms, thanks to the secured nature of the book.
Vasudevan: "We've never really had a serious issue on the portfolio quality in the used commercial vehicle segment."
Growth & The FY27 Rebound
- FY26 advances growth ~15% (ex-DA): The year was marked by deliberate MFI degrowth and SBL recalibration, but the exit rate is improving as disbursements ramp.
- FY27 guided at 20–25% advances growth: Management points to its historical 20–25% trajectory and expects SBL to grow at least 20%+, with disbursement numbers on an upward movement and all non-MFI products now mature and profitable.
- Deposit growth to outpace advances: Guided ~2–3% higher than advances growth, supported by the ongoing branch-led liability franchise build.
- Product profitability is broad-based: Used car is quite profitable, affordable housing turned profitable this year after being loss-making last year, and all non-MFI products are either fully profitable or on the path.
- Geographic diversification underway: Tamil Nadu contribution reduced from over 50% to 44%, with a strategy to bring it down further to ~36% over 3–4 years, while the South overall stands at ~62% (not 90%).
Vasudevan: "Historically, we have generally grown between 20% and 25% growth on a yearly basis. So going forward, next year, we should look at anything between 20% and 25%."
Capital, ROA & The Universal Bank Path
- Q4 FY26 exit ROA target: 1%: The near-term milestone, with the Q4 FY27 exit target set at 1.5%, implying a steady climb as credit cost normalises and operating leverage kicks in.
- Capital raise deliberately postponed: With CAR at 20.47% (vs an internal floor of 18% and a regulatory 15%), management sees no need for capital in H1 FY27 and wants to delay any raise as long as possible given the current market price.
- Universal bank licence in sight: The bank hopes to meet all RBI guidelines by March 2026 and may apply subsequently, a milestone that would expand its addressable market and potentially lower its cost of funds further.
- Cost-to-income target ~65%: To be achieved by Q3/Q4 next year, driven by business growth leveraging the fixed cost base, after a Q3 that included a one-time ₹29 cr labour code impact that pushed the ratio higher.
Vasudevan: "The objective from our side clearly is to postpone capital raise as long as possible given our current market price scenario."
Guidance & Commitments
| Commitment | Specifics | Timeline |
|---|---|---|
| Exit ROA | 1% | Q4 FY26 |
| Exit ROA | 1.5% | Q4 FY27 |
| Advances growth (ex-DA) | ~15% | FY26 |
| Advances growth | 20–25% | FY27 |
| Deposit growth | ~2–3% higher than advances growth | FY27 |
| Credit cost | Downward trajectory from current 1.88% | Q4 FY26 |
| Credit cost | 1.5–1.7% full year; Q4 exit below 1.5% | FY27 |
| Cost-to-income | ~65% | Q3/Q4 FY27 |
| MFI portfolio share | ~10% of advances | Ongoing |
| Deposit repricing | ~85% of book repriced | Q4 FY26 exit |
| Capital raise | No requirement | H1 FY27 |
| Universal bank licence | Meet all RBI guidelines, may apply subsequently | By March 2026 |
Key Metrics
| Metric | Q3 FY26 |
|---|---|
| Net interest income | ₹852 cr |
| Other income | ₹285 cr, includes one-time ARC income of ₹31.52 cr |
| Total net income | ₹1,137 cr, +8% YoY and +14% QoQ |
| PAT | ₹90 cr, +36% YoY and +273% QoQ |
| NIM | 6.72%, +43 bps QoQ from 6.29% |
| Cost-to-income ratio | 72%; would have been ~70% excluding ₹29 cr one-time labour code impact |
| ROA | 0.65%; would have been ~0.8% excluding labour code impact |
| ROE | 6.1% |
| Gross advances | ₹43,268 cr, +16% YoY; +12% YoY excluding DA purchase |
| Total deposits | ₹43,668 cr, +7% YoY |
| CASA ratio | 30% |
| Cost of funds | 7.13% |
| Capital adequacy ratio | 20.47% |
| Gross NPA | 2.62%, -20 bps QoQ from 2.82% |
| Net NPA | 0.88%, -7 bps QoQ from 0.95% |
| Provision coverage ratio | 67.10% |
| Credit cost | 1.88%, vs 2.16% in Q2 FY26 and 2.65% in Q3 FY25 |
| Net slippages | 2.52%, down from 3.78% in Q2; lowest in 6 quarters |
| Total disbursements | ₹6,557 cr, highest ever quarterly; +28% YoY and +22% QoQ |
| Non-MFI disbursements | ₹5,385 cr, highest ever quarterly; +35% YoY and +15% QoQ |
| MFI disbursements | ₹1,173 cr, +72% QoQ |
| Microfinance portfolio (ex-DA) | ₹3,800 cr, ~8.5% of total advances |
| MFI 1-90 DPD | 2.14%, down from 5.40% in Q2 |
| Small business loans growth | 14% YoY; secured SBL +22% YoY |
| Used CV growth | 23% YoY |
| Used cars growth | 36% YoY |
| Affordable housing book | ₹5,360 cr, +17% YoY and +6% QoQ |
| MSE book | Crossed ₹2,000 cr, +35% YoY |
| Yield on gross advances | 15.63%, -10 bps QoQ |
| Treasury income | ₹34 cr |
| Gold loan book | ~₹600 cr, up from ₹400 cr in Q2 |
| Advances growth guidance FY26 (ex-DA) | ~15% |
| Q4 FY26 exit ROA guidance | 1% |
| FY27 advances growth target | 20% to 25% |
| FY27 Q4 exit ROA target | 1.5% |
| FY27 credit cost guidance | 1.5% to 1.7% for full year |