1. FY26 CE industry - lower than last year by single-digit drop Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management expected the CE industry to be lower than last year on a full-year basis by a single-digit drop. FY26 CE served industry declined \~7% YoY.
2. FY26 CE - flattish year, no decline Missed - At the Q3 FY25 call, management did not expect a decline in CE in FY26, guiding a flattish year. FY26 CE served industry declined \~7% YoY, and EKL CE volumes of 5,794 units were down 10.6% YoY.
3. FY25 exports - close to 5,000 tractors Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management expected FY25 exports at close to 5,000 tractors, the same level as last year. FY25 exports came in at 4,991 tractors.
4. Free cash flow - ₹600-800 crores per year Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management expected free cash flow generation of ₹600-800 crores per year to continue. FY26 free cash flow was over ₹1,200 crores, excluding exceptional cash from the RED sale.
5. Dividend policy - up to 40% of retained earnings On track - At the Q2 FY25 call, management said the dividend distribution policy was increased, to be taken up to the 40% level of retained earnings, with Q4 FY25 adding that the move would be gradual under the mid-term business plan. FY25 total payout was ₹28/share, up 56%, and FY26 payout ₹51/share, up 82%, a 26.3% payout ratio of profit excluding exceptional.
6. Railway divestment - complete within 1 year Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management expected the Railway divestment to Sona Comstar to be completed within the next 1 year. The Railway Equipment Business divestment concluded during Q1 FY26, with the transfer completed effective 1 June 2025.
7. Mid-Term Business Plan 2028 - double-digit growth in railway equipment Missed - In the FY24 Annual Report, management's MTBP 2028 included maintaining double-digit growth in the railway equipment business division. The Railway Equipment Division was divested to Sona Comstar, with the transfer completed 1 June 2025, and the promise is no longer applicable.
8. Mid-Term Business Plan 2028 - top 3 in farm implements On track - In the FY23 Annual Report, management's MTBP 2028 aimed to be among the top 3 in the farm implements segment, with top position in combined harvester and rice transplanters. FY26 Agri Solutions business grew 20% with healthy harvester market share, and harvester share is \~30%+ in India; no explicit top-3 ranking has been disclosed.
9. Mid-Term Business Plan 2028 - challenger brand in tractors by FY28 On track - In the FY23 Annual Report, management's MTBP 2028 aspired to be the challenger brand in tractors as per SOM by FY28, with three brands combined. FY26 domestic market share was 10.9%, down from 11.8% in FY25, while Q1 FY27 market share gained 36 bps.
10. FY27 CE industry growth - 12%-15% On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided CE industry growth of "anywhere between 12% to 15%" for the full year. Q1 FY27 CE industry volume grew \~23% YoY, with the full-year FY27 outcome not yet available.
11. FY27 tractor exports - more or less flattish On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management expected FY27 tractor exports "more or less flattish" in volume terms despite the weak Q1, with recovery over the balance 3 quarters. Q1 FY27 exports were 1,405 tractors, down 18.9% YoY, with the full-year outcome not yet available.
12. CE exports - 10% of segment revenue by 2030 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management expected construction equipment exports, currently \~5-6% of segment revenue, to grow to 10% by 2030. At Q4 FY26 the CE export share of revenue had moved from \~3-3.5% to upward of 5-6%, with no further update.
13. Farm machinery/non-tractor segment - 20%+ growth over next 3 years On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management targeted the farm machinery/non-tractor (Agri mechanization) segment to grow "at least 20% plus" over the next 3 years, after a 35%+ CAGR over the past 3 years. FY26 Agri Solutions business grew 20%, higher than the tractor business, and Q1 FY27 non-tractor revenue was 19% of Agri Machinery revenue.
14. FY27 company growth - higher than industry, market share gain On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management expected company tractor volume/market share growth in FY27 "irrespective of the outlook of the industry", confirmed at Q1 FY27 as growth higher than the anticipated mid-single-digit industry growth. Q1 FY27 Escorts domestic tractor sales rose 22.9% YoY against industry growth of 18.6%, a 36 basis point market share gain, with South share up \~0.6%.
15. FY27 tractor industry growth - flattish, ±2-3% On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided FY27 tractor industry growth as "flattish industry, 2%, 3% up, 2%, 3% down", corrected at Q1 FY27 to "plus/minus 2% to 3% variation" and revised upward to "mid-single-digit growth for the financial year". Q1 FY27 domestic tractor industry grew 18.6% YoY, with the full-year outcome not yet available.
16. FY26 tractor volume growth - in line with or marginally outgrowing industry Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management expected FY26 to end at a higher volume growth with respect to last year, growing in line with or marginally outgrowing the industry. FY26 EKL domestic tractor volume grew 14.9% against industry growth of 23.5%, and total tractor volume grew 15.7% against industry 21.9%.
17. Component export revenue - ₹250 crores in FY26 Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management expected component export revenue of about ₹250 crores this year, up from ₹100-150 crores last year. FY26 component exports were \~₹160-170 crores.
18. Export revenue - 15% of total revenue in 4-5 years On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, management targeted taking export revenue to about 15% of total revenue in the mid-term business plan of the next 4-5 years, from the current 5-6%. FY26 exports were 6,676 tractors with export share still around 5-6% of overall sales, and Q1 FY27 exports declined 18.9% YoY.
19. FY26 EBITDA margin - 12%-12.5% full-year Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided full-year FY26 EBITDA margin in the range of around 12%-12.5% for the overall business. FY26 consolidated EBITDA margin was 13.0% and standalone 13.2%.
20. EKFL penetration - 30%-35% in two-three years On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management targeted EKFL penetration similar to captive finance peers at roughly 30%-35%, taking two-three years to make an impact, revised at Q2 FY26 to 25-35% over the next 3-4 years. Q1 FY27 penetration was close to 10-12% in the quarter and \~15% plus in July.
21. EKFL book size - close to ₹100 crores by end of FY26 Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected the EKFL book size to be close to ₹100-odd crores by end of FY26. The NBFC portfolio was already more than ₹100 crores as of end of March 2026.
22. FY26 capex - ₹350-400 crores excluding greenfield Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided FY26 capex around ₹350-400 crores excluding greenfield, reiterated at Q1 FY26 and Q2 FY26, the latter stated as ₹300-400 crores. FY26 capex spent was about ₹311 crores on a cash-flow basis.
23. CE margins - remain consistent at \~9-10% Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected construction equipment margins to "remain consistent for some more time" at the current \~9-10% level, revised at Q1 FY26 to a return to the 10%-11% range in H2 and at Q2 FY26 to high single-digit EBIT margin in H2 FY26. FY26 CE EBIT margin was 7.9%, down 206 bps from 9.9% in FY25, though Q4 FY26 recovered to 12.7% and Q1 FY27 came in at 5.4%.
24. Agri Machinery EBIT margin - 11.5%-13% range over next two years On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected Agri Machinery EBIT margin to remain in the "11.5% to 13% sort of range" over the next two years. FY26 Agri Machinery EBIT margin was 12.6%, while Q1 FY27 Agri EBIT margin was 10.8%, below the guided range.
25. FY26 margin improvement - 0.5% to 1% over FY25 Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected "maybe 0.5% to 1% sort of improvement" in profitability, with margins "not lower than this year". FY26 consolidated EBITDA margin was 13.0%, up 159 bps from 11.4% in FY25, and standalone 13.2%, up 163 bps.
26. FY26 export growth - 20%-25% Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management assumed 20%-25% growth in export numbers in FY26, revised at Q1 FY26 to 25%-30% and reiterated at Q2 FY26 as 25%+ growth. FY26 exports were 6,676 tractors, up 33.8% YoY.
27. FY26 tractor industry growth - mid-to-high single digit Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected tractor industry growth in the mid-to-high single digit for FY26, possibly the highest ever industry volume with a 10-lakh number, revised up at Q2 FY26 to low double-digit and at Q3 FY26 to a new peak of around 11.5 lakh units. FY26 domestic tractor industry grew 23.4% to an all-time high of 11.6 lakh units.
28. Dealer network - 1,700-1,800 dealers by FY28, 90% coverage On track - At the Q1 FY25 call, management stated intent by FY28 to have market coverage of about 90% across both brands, with a total dealership network around 1,700 to 1,800 dealers, and at Q1 FY26 said the count would improve significantly over the next three to four months from \~1,600 dealers. Q3 FY25 had \~1,540 exclusive dealers and Q1 FY26 1,600, with \~250 captive finance dealers onboarded by Q1 FY27 and no updated total disclosed.
29. Component/parts export to Kubota Global - start in FY25 Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said component/parts export to Kubota Global would start this year (FY25), with direct export from EKL starting this year. Component exports in FY25 were about ₹100 crores plus, described at Q1 FY26 as close to ₹100-150 crores, confirming commencement in FY25.
30. JV margins - bring up to Escorts standalone level in 3-4 years On track - At the Q4 FY24 call, management's objective over the next 3 to 4 years was to bring JV margins up to the same level as Escorts standalone, revised at Q2 FY25 to an entity-level target of 12%-13% including merged JVs achievable in the next 1-1.5 years. FY26 Agri Machinery EBIT margin was 12.6%, up 190 bps from 10.7% in FY25, and consolidated EBITDA margin was 13.0%.
31. Railway EBIT margin - within ±100 bps of FY24 level Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected Railway EBIT margin in the coming period to be within 100 basis points plus/minus of the FY24 level of 18.9%. FY25 Railway PBT margin was 20.7% (₹188.7 cr PBT on ₹912.8 cr revenue) and Q3 FY25 Railway PBIT margin was 21.9%, above the guided band.
32. Railway Equipment - double-digit growth throughout FY25 Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management anticipated the Railway Equipment segment would sustain a double-digit growth trajectory throughout FY25. FY25 Railway revenue was ₹912.8 crores, down 4.0% YoY.
33. Engine line for existing product portfolio - come up in FY25 Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said the engine line for the existing product portfolio (Powertrac and Farmtrac) would come up this year as part of FY25 capex. No engine line commissioning in FY25 is on record; Q2 FY26 saw harvester component localization (hydraulic lift and transmission axles) starting at the existing facility and Q3 FY26 a transmission line for harvesters starting production.
34. FY25 export volume growth - 25%-30% Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected export volumes to grow 25%-30% in FY25, returning to FY23 levels, revised at Q2 FY25 to close to 5,000 tractors, the same level as last year. FY25 exports were 4,991 tractors, down 11.2% YoY.
35. FY25 tractor industry growth - lower mid-single-digit Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected the domestic tractor industry to register lower mid-single-digit growth in FY25, refined through the year to 5%-6% at Q1 FY25, mid-single to marginal high single-digit at Q2 FY25, and around 6%-7% at Q3 FY25. FY25 domestic tractor industry grew 7.3% to \~9.40 lakh units.
36. Export dealer/channel integration - complete within one year Partial - At the Q3 FY24 call, management expected export dealer/channel integration, where Kubota and Farmtrac overlap, to be completed within the next one year, working market-by-market across 60-70+ countries. Channel integration with the Kubota network was underway at Q1 FY26, with \~60% of exports via the Kubota Global channel at Q4 FY26 and \~61% of export volume at Q1 FY27, but no completion statement across all markets.
37. Tractor export volume - 20-30,000 in next two-three years On track - At the Q3 FY24 call, management targeted reaching at least the number two position in exports, and nearly 20 to 30,000 tractors in the next two-three years, versus about 17,000 tractors exported last year, with subsequent revisions through FY27 including 25%-30% growth for FY26 and "more or less flattish" FY27 exports. FY25 exports were 4,991 tractors, FY26 exports 6,676 tractors, up 33.8%, and Q1 FY27 exports 1,405 tractors, down 18.9% YoY.
38. FY24 capex - ₹200-225 crores actual cash outflow Partial - At the Q2 FY24 call, management revised FY24 capex down to ₹200-225 crores expected actual cash outflow. FY24 capex was ₹175 crores.
39. Captive finance arm - NBFC license and operations Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management expected the captive finance company to be ready by end of Q3 FY24 with the RBI NBFC license application in Q4 FY24, with subsequent updates through Q1 FY25 on the license and launch timing. The RBI certificate of registration was received and EKFL started operations end of November 2024, with the NBFC portfolio above ₹100 crores by end March 2026, penetration of 10-12% in Q1 FY27 and \~15% in July, and \~250 dealers onboarded.
40. US exports via Kubota network - start from FY26 Partial - At the Q2 FY24 call, management said exports to the US market via the Kubota network would not start next year, with US exports expected from FY26, later tied to the greenfield facility and pushed at Q2 FY26 to FY28-29. No US exports have commenced as of Q1 FY27, with the timeline now FY28-29 pending the greenfield.
41. Implement/harvester business - ₹400 crores plus top line next year (FY25) Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management expected the implement/harvester business (post-merger, including JV) to be a significant business next year with ₹400 crores plus top line from this business alone, with a Q2 FY24 mid-term aspiration of maybe ₹1,000 crores topline. Farm implements revenue last year was about ₹600-odd crores as of Q1 FY26, exceeding the target.
42. $0.5 billion component export aspiration - global sourcing center from India On track - At the Q1 FY24 call, management said the $0.5 billion component export aspiration is "definitely achievable" with a global sourcing center from India planned as part of the greenfield facility, with later targets including ₹500-odd crores over two years, ₹250 crores in FY26, and ₹500 crores to ₹1,000 crores by FY30. FY25 component exports were \~₹100 crores plus and the FY26 run rate \~₹160-170 crores, with Q1 FY27 exports more or less flat.
43. Kubota greenfield facility - go live by FY26, engines first On track - At the Q1 FY24 call, management said the Kubota greenfield facility plan was to go live only by FY26, starting with Kubota-make engine manufacturing in India, subsequently revised through FY27-28, FY28-29 and "somewhere in 2029-30", with Phase 1 costing more than ₹2,000 crores and groundbreaking expected August 2026. About 184 of 190 acres were acquired by Q2 FY26, land was allotted with payment made by Q1 FY27, and no production has commenced.
44. Merger margin dilution - 1.5%-2% drop initially Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management reiterated earlier guidance of a 1.5% to 2% drop initially from the merger before synergies improve margins, guided at Q2 FY25 as 1.5%-2% on a full-year FY25 basis. Q2 FY25 dilution appeared larger than guided partly because Q2 is the weakest quarter, but FY25 consolidated EBITDA margin was 11.4%, down 27 bps YoY, and standalone continuing 11.6%, down 8 bps - materially less than guided.
45. Kubota marketing merger - NCLT approval and completion Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management expected \~6 months for NCLT approval of the Kubota marketing merger, with the timeline slipping through Q4 FY24, Q1 FY25 and August/September 2024 across later calls. NCLT Chandigarh Bench approved the scheme, the certified copy was received 29 August 2024 and filed with the RoC 1 September 2024, with numbers restated from the appointed date 1 April 2023.
46. Construction Equipment FY24 margin - sustain high single-digit Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided Construction Equipment FY24 margin to sustain at high single-digit margin. FY24 CE EBIT margin was 9.3%, up 640 bps from 2.9% in FY23.
47. Railway full-year margin - 16%-17% in FY24 Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided Railway full-year margin in the range of 16% to 17%. FY24 Railway EBIT margin was 18.9%, up 510 bps from 13.8%.
48. Railway division revenue - double-digit growth in FY24 Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management expected Railway division revenue growth of double-digit in FY24. FY24 Railway revenue was ₹950.4 crores, up 12.9% YoY - the highest ever.
49. Tractor EBIT margin - 13-14% by FY24 year-end Partial - At the Q1 FY24 call, management reiterated earlier guidance of tractor EBIT margin hitting 13%-14% by the year-end and said the margin should be sustained in the balance of the year, reiterated at Q4 FY24 as a 13%-14% full-year target. FY24 Agri Machinery EBIT margin was 12.7%, up 344 bps from 9.3% in FY23, with quarterly margins of 13.4%, 12.2%, 13.8% and 11.2% through the year.