1. UPI P2M business paused meanwhile Delivered - At the Q4 FY26 call, management stated the UPI P2M business was paused meanwhile, with no new onboarding and existing merchants not transacting. Q1 FY27 confirmed the B2B UPI P2M business was paused for recalibration, with throughput at ₹103 cr vs ₹11,275 cr in Q1 FY26.
2. Lending portfolio \~90% secured On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management stated the lending portfolio would be \~90% secured - affordable housing, MSME, gold loans, LAP, micro LAP and a bit of personal loans. In Q1 FY27 the SFB portfolio was targeting a 90% secured book, with referral lending focused on gold loans, affordable housing and LAP; SFB lending not yet started.
3. ROE 20% by FY30 Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management (Anup Agarwal) reaffirmed the ROE target of 20%, now explicitly to be achieved by FY30. Q4 FY25 annualized ROE was 13.1%, FY26 PAT declined 43% and Q1 FY27 PAT was negative; the FY30 horizon is not yet reached.
4. Deposits ₹13,300 cr by FY2030 at 3.9% cost of funds On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management projected approximately ₹13,300 crores of deposits by FY2030 at a cost of funds of 3.9%; the Q4 FY26 PPT restated FY30 deposits of ₹13,300 Cr at 3.9% cost. Q4 FY26 total deposits were ₹2,815 cr and Q1 FY27 average deposits ₹2,772 cr.
5. Loan book ₹8,000-10,000 cr by FY2030 On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management aspired to a loan book of Rs. 8,000 crores to Rs. 10,000 crores by FY2030, with growth to be "phased and prudent"; the Q4 FY26 PPT restated building ₹8k-10k Cr AUM by FY30. Q1 FY27 referral loan disbursals were ₹628 cr, with SFB lending not yet started.
6. FY26 revenue growth - no formal guidance, 20-22% direction Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, the CFO said no formal revenue guidance was being issued for FY26, but the broad range being seen seemed "in that direction" of the analyst-suggested 20-22% growth. FY26 revenue declined 14% to ₹1,587.9 cr.
7. Loan referral disbursement ₹300 cr target, maybe in first half Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management set a loan referral disbursement target of ₹300 crores (\~₹100 crores a month), aspired to be reached in this year, maybe in the first half. Disbursements ran \~₹200 cr quarterly through H1 FY26, then reached \~₹350 cr in Q3 FY26 and \~₹592 cr in Q4 FY26, with FY26 total \~₹1,300 cr.
8. Remittance business - 20-25% permanent dip, some recovery in 3-6 months Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management said the remittance business would settle 20%-25% below pre-regulation levels, with "some recovery" over the next 3 to 6 months but volumes that "will never reach the original numbers". The initial drop was 35%-40% versus pre-regulation levels, but by Q4 FY26 DMT revenue was ₹23.1 Cr, up 61% YoY (FY'26 ₹143.9 Cr, +58%), a recovery exceeding the guided floor.
9. CMS take rate - bottomed out, should not go down Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management said the CMS take rate had "kind of bottomed out" and "should not further go down". The take rate was \~0.18% in Q2 FY25 and 0.17% in Q3 FY25, compressed \~2 bps in Q2 FY26 and stood at 0.16% in Q3 FY26.
10. Digital payment services to close FY25 at 16-17% of revenue Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, the CFO expected digital payment services to close FY25 at around 16-17% of revenue, up from 6% in FY24. The share was 15% in Q1 FY25, \~24% by Q3 FY25 and 21% in Q4 FY25, with FY25 digital revenue growing 4.2x to ₹390 cr.
11. FY25 revenue growth raised from 20% to 25% Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management raised FY25 revenue growth guidance from 20% to 25%, and the Q1 FY25 announcement confirmed the revision to 25% for FY2024-25. FY25 revenue grew 25% to ₹1,847.1 cr.
12. DMT rebound momentum sustainable at Q4 level Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said DMT rebound momentum in both own business and open banking was seen as sustainable at the level achieved during Q4. From Q3 FY25 the remittance business degrew after RBI regulations, and by Q1 FY26 remittance had shrunk from \~25% of revenue to \~10%.
13. Renewal income guidance ₹115-120 cr (surpassed) Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management referenced the prior renewal income guidance of ₹115-120 cr. FY24 renewal income grew 75% to ₹127 cr, beating the guidance by \~5-6%.
14. Micro-ATM + AEPS revenue share 9-11% Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management (Ketan Merchant) expected the micro-ATM + AEPS revenue share to be maintained in a "9% to 11% kind of a scenario". The share was \~11% for Q3 FY24, then MATM + AEPS revenue declined -6% YoY in FY25 to ₹184.6 cr and -21% YoY in FY26 to ₹146.1 cr.
15. Branches from \~130 to 200 Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, management (Rishi Gupta) planned to take branches from around 130 (including customer service points) to 200, with "not very heavy investment on the branches side". Branches and CSPs were 122 at Q4 FY24 and 126 at Q4 FY26, unchanged at 126 in Q1 FY27.
16. UPI product roadmap - most functionalities ready by March 2024 Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management said most UPI-stack functionalities (UPI Lite, credit on UPI, UPI Collect) "will be ready by March of '24". In Q3 FY24, seven of \~9 UPI switch services were live, including credit card on UPI, UPI Light and QR UPI which went live that quarter.
17. Core banking change over next 15-18 months Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management said the core banking partner change would be "over the next 15-18" months; timelines slipped repeatedly, with go-live guided for Q1 FY26 at the Q4 FY25 call and end of December 2025 at the Q2 FY26 call. Migration to Finacle was completed in January 2026.
18. BC banking may not be allowed post-SFB Pending - At the Q1 FY24 call, management said BC banking may not be allowed post-SFB, but expected to more than compensate with higher-margin payment services, low-cost liability franchise and lending. By Q1 FY27, a concrete plan for the BC business may come "over the next quarter or so"; FY26 BC revenue was ₹142.2 cr, +8% YoY.
19. SFB transition - no P&L impact in first two years, no new capital requirements On track - At the Q1 FY24 call, Ketan Merchant said there would be no P&L impact from the SFB transition in the first two years of operations and no new capital requirements to start with. At Q4 FY26 the capital adequacy ratio was 83% vs a 15% regulatory requirement, with no incremental capital required until FY30; SFB operations have not yet started.
20. Liability franchise - customer base crosses 2 crores in 3-5 years On track - At the Q1 FY24 call, management expected to substantially grow the liability franchise as the customer base crossed 2 crores in the next 3-5 years. The customer base was 1.75 crores at Q4 FY26 and 1.83 crores in Q1 FY27; the FY24-FY29 window is still in progress.
21. Cost of funds 200-250 bps lower than competition On track - At the Q1 FY24 call, management expected cost of funds 200-250 basis points lower than competition, with Ketan Merchant citing "around 250 basis points from the normal SFB"; revisions lifted this to a \~300 bps advantage. Cost of funds was 1.4% at Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27.
22. FY26 goals - digital throughput ₹2 lakh cr, physical throughput ₹3 lakh cr Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management set FY26 goals of digital throughput going from ₹50,000 crores in FY23 to ₹2 lakh crores and physical throughput from \~₹2 lakh crores to ₹3 lakh crores over the next 3 years. FY26 digital throughput was ₹2,62,009 cr, exceeding target, while physical throughput was \~₹2,02,038 cr against the ₹3 lakh cr goal.
23. SFB conversion - application in calendar year 2023, 18-24 months process On track - At the Q4 FY23 call, management said the SFB application to RBI would happen in this calendar year, with the process taking 18 to 24 months from application; the application was submitted in December 2023 and timelines were later framed as final license in Q4 FY27, operations Q1 FY28. RBI granted in-principle approval on December 5, 2025.
24. Operating costs - single digit growth over next 12 months Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management confirmed operating costs were expected to grow in single digits over the next 12 months. FY24 operating cost grew 14% against 20.2% revenue growth, with Q1 FY24 opex at \~₹69.6 cr, \~9% YoY growth.
25. Low-cost liabilities \~₹3,500 cr over next couple of years Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management targeted \~₹3,500 crores of low-cost liabilities over the next couple of years, versus ₹1,200 crores currently. Deposits grew from ₹1,714 cr at Q4 FY24 to ₹2,815 cr at Q4 FY26 and ₹2,772 cr average in Q1 FY27.
26. Profitability growth at 2.5x revenue growth percentage Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management said profitability growth percentage would continue to grow at 2.5x of the revenue growth percentage; revisions lowered this to 2-2.25x and then 1.5x for PBT. FY23 delivered 2.4x (revenue +22%, PAT +52%), but FY25 was 0.3x (+25% revenue, +7% PAT) and FY26 revenue fell 14% with PAT down 43%.
27. Renewal income to reach 50% of CASA income over next couple of years Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management said renewal income, currently 1/3 of CASA income (₹74 crores in FY23), was anticipated to reach 50% of CASA income "over next couple of years". Renewal income was 43% of CASA income at Q1 FY25 and \~38% at Q4 FY26 (₹237.1 cr vs CASA revenue ₹629.7 cr).
28. FY24 revenue growth - 20% target Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management's target was 20% revenue growth for FY24 ("on an average basis, we should be growing at 20%. That's the target"). FY24 revenue grew 20.2% to ₹1,478.4 cr.
29. Renewal income and new CASA income to roughly match in FY2023-2024 Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management (Rishi Gupta) said renewal income and new CASA income were expected to roughly match in FY2023-2024, one possibly higher than the other. By Q3 FY24 the subscription-to-renewal split was 40:60, and FY24 renewal income of ₹127 cr exceeded new CASA subscription revenue of \~₹104 cr.
30. Cost-to-income ratio to 25% levels Partial - At the Q3 FY23 call, management (Ketan Merchant) aimed to take the cost-to-income ratio to 25% levels from the current 26%; later calls framed it as range bound around 25-26%. The ratio was 25.5% at Q4 FY25 but deteriorated to 33.1% at Q3 FY26 and 38.8% at Q4 FY26.
31. CASA acquisition 3 lakh+ per month over next couple of quarters Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management (Rishi Gupta) set a CASA acquisition target of "3 lakh plus over the next couple of quarters" versus \~2.5 lakhs average per quarter, later framed as over 2.5 lakh per month and \~30 lakhs per year. Monthly run-rates held: FY24 added 31.8 lakh accounts, and FY26 quarters ranged 6.9-9.1 lakh per quarter.
32. ROE above 15% for sure in FY23, FY24 Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management (Rishi Gupta) guided ROE "of above 15% for sure in FY '23, '24". Q3 FY23 annualized ROE was 15% and Q4 FY24 annualized ROE was 16.4%.
33. Technology/digital investment ₹150-180 cr over 18-24 months Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, Ketan Merchant guided that over the next 18 to 24 months Fino would utilize "somewhere in the range of around Rs.150 Crores to Rs.180 Crores" on technology and digital initiatives, largely capex in nature. FY24 technology spend was \~₹103 crores, FY25 capex ₹165 crores, with cumulative technology investment of \~₹270-odd crores by Q2 FY25.
34. CASA accounts cross 1 crore by end of FY24 Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, Ketan Merchant agreed Fino "should cross more than one Crore CASA account by end of FY2024" given current traction. The CASA base crossed the 1 Crore milestone in Q3 FY24, with the customer base at 1.1 crores by Q4 FY24.
35. Net revenue margin range-bound 30-32% Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, with the metric at 32%, Rishi Gupta guided margins to remain largely range bound, playing "anywhere between 30% to 32%". Net revenue margin was 32.7% in Q4'23, reaffirmed as range bound between 31% and 33% in FY'24, and stood at 36.8% in FY'26.
36. Merchant strategy - 3x growth over three years Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management (Ketan Merchant) described a two-pronged merchant strategy over "the next three-year period": a "3x kind of a growth" in overall merchant acquisition plus more products per merchant. Merchant count grew from 8.7 lakh as of December 2021 to \~18 lakh by Q4 FY24 and 20.8 lakh at Q4 FY26.
37. Mutual funds, FD and RD launch guided within \~a quarter of regulator approval Partial - At the Q3 FY22 call, Rishi Gupta said Mutual Funds, FD and RD would launch roughly a quarter after regulator approval; Q4 FY22 noted RBI approvals received with go-live expected between Q2 and Q3 FY23. The Fixed Deposit in partnership launched only in Q1 FY24, roughly three to four quarters later than guided.
38. Digital gold launch Q1 FY23 Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management (Rishi Gupta) guided the digital gold launch "probably in Quarter 1 of FY23" once approval was received. Digital gold was launched in Q1 FY23.
39. BC banking growth in single digits going forward Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management (Ketan Merchant) guided BC banking growth to be in single digits going forward, substantially lower than CMS/CASA. BC revenue grew just +3% YoY in FY24 (₹128.3 cr), +2% in FY25 (₹131.1 cr) and +8% in FY26 (₹142.2 cr).
40. International remittance (MTSS) go-live Q1 FY23, 5% market share aspiration Missed - At the Q3 FY22 call, management (Rishi Gupta) guided international remittance (MTSS) go-live in Q1 FY23, with an "aspirational target" of 5% of the MTSS international remittance market; the launch slipped to "hopefully in Q2 end or Q3 beginning" by Q1 FY23. A pilot launched at branch level in Q1 FY23, but by Q3 FY24 management acknowledged "the answer to that is also no" on going big as anticipated.
41. Open banking share of revenue mix - internal range 33-37% Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management (Rishi Gupta) set an internal range of 33-37% for the open banking share of revenue mix, later framed as own vs open bound at 65/35. Own:open was 67:33 at Q4 FY23 and 65:35 at Q1 FY24, then moved to 72:28 at Q1 FY25 and 76% own-channel at Q2 FY25.
42. Gross margin range-bound 30-34% Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management (Rishi Gupta) guided gross margin to be range bound at 32±2%, i.e., between 30-34%; later guidance kept net revenue margin range bound around 30-34%. Margins held within range through FY24-FY25 (31.9%-33%), then expanded to 40.0% at Q4 FY26 and 42.8% at Q1 FY27.
43. Q4 FY22 revenue growth 27-29% YoY Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management (Ketan Merchant) guided Q4 FY22 revenue to be around 27-29% higher YoY, with "disproportionate profit growth" even more evident in Q4 FY22. Q4 FY22 revenue grew 28% YoY and Q4 FY22 PAT was ₹17.6 cr, higher than the entire H1 FY22 PAT of ₹11.0 cr.
44. FY22 revenue cross ₹1,000 crore Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management (Ketan Merchant) guided that 9MFY22 revenue growth of 29% would result in FY22 revenue crossing ₹1,000 crores. FY22 revenue crossed ₹1,000 crore, reaching ₹1,029 cr.
45. ROE 20%+ from FY23 onward Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management (Rishi Gupta) targeted 20%+ ROE from FY23 ("20 to 23 and then onwards"), to be achieved over a two-year period factoring in deployment of IPO proceeds; the target was later softened to 15%+ for FY23-FY24 and by Q4 FY26 pushed explicitly to FY30. Annualized ROE was 15% in Q3 FY23, 16.4% in Q4 FY24 and 13.1% in Q4 FY25, with Q1 FY27 PAT negative.
46. Remittance growth 15-20% YoY, quarterly throughput ₹9,000-10,000 cr Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, management (Ketan Merchant) expected remittance growth of around 15-20% year-on-year, with quarterly throughput around ₹9,000 to ₹10,000 crore. Q2 FY22 remittance throughput was ₹9,449 cr, within the range, and Q2 FY23 DMT grew 28% YoY before the business degrew sharply from Q3 FY25 after RBI regulations.
47. Remittance open banking/API channel share - maintain 70-80% Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management (Ketan Merchant) made a strategic call to maintain remittances in the range of 70-80% on the open banking/API channel, with Q2 FY22 throughput of ₹9,449 cr at \~75% on own channel. From Q3 FY25 the remittance business degrew after RBI regulations effective November 1, 2024, and by Q4 FY26 DMT revenue was down 61% YoY.
48. Effective tax rate zero for next couple of years Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, management (Ketan Merchant) said the effective tax rate would remain zero "for the next couple of years" due to accumulated tax losses; later calls indicated the full tax rate would kick in around FY25. The bank became a tax-paying entity from Q2 FY25 and cleared all accumulated losses, with FY25 effective tax rate \~17%.
49. Fino Paytech reverse merger - trigger June 2022 Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management (Rishi Gupta) stated the merger of Fino Paytech with Fino Payments Bank would trigger in June 2022 on completing five years of operations, as a reverse merger subject to regulatory approvals; by Q2 FY23 it was "over the next two, three years" with no regulator application yet, and by Q1 FY24 timelines were "too early to mention". In Q1 FY27, no reverse merger is envisaged, with the HoldCo/OpCo structure unchanged "over the next couple of years".