Ganesh Housing Ltd Q4 FY2025 Concall Summary

Key Takeaways

• Record FY25, but Q4 slowed to a crawl: Revenue fell just shy of the INR1,000 crores milestone for the full year, yet Q4 grew only 2% QoQ as rate hikes and oversupply concerns pushed buyers to the sidelines.
• Launches deliberately held back, not cancelled: Management chose not to push large new projects into a soft market, betting that green shoots visible now will firm into a recovery by July-August 2025.
• The commercial pivot is arriving ahead of schedule: The IT SEZ Phase 1 is nearly complete, 10 months early, with 70% of leasable area under LOI at rents above initial projections of INR60 per sq ft.
• Godhavi monetization has already begun: Despite earlier guidance pointing to Q3 FY26, 18 acres were sold in FY25 at INR26,000 per sq m, unlocking early value from a land bank with a potential turnover of INR5,000 crores over 7-10 years.
• What to watch next quarter: Whether the promised July-August demand upturn materializes and translates into the launch of One Thaltej and the SEZ residential project, plus any quantified rental income guidance once IT SEZ leases are signed.

The Q4 Slowdown & Launch Discipline

• Market turned cautious in Q4: January rate increases and pockets of oversupply in certain residential categories dampened sentiment, causing developers and buyers alike to adopt a wait-and-watch stance.
• Malabar Retreat felt it directly: Presales at the project slowed, and the company shifted focus to completing construction and readying the sample flat rather than pushing sales into weak demand.
• New launches were intentionally deferred: Management assessed that even a strong brand like Ganesh Housing would face headwinds launching large projects into unfavourable sentiment, so it held back rather than risk a tepid reception.
• The bet is on a near-term turn: Green shoots are already visible, and the company expects the situation to improve from July-August 2025, at which point it will activate the paused launch pipeline.

B. Ravi: "When we see a general slowness in the market, it is prudent not to launch large project at that point in time because the sentiments aren't in favor. Though for you for Ganesh House branding, it can be always very good, but it's prudent not to do that because we want our launches to be successful right in the first few months itself."

Commercial Real Estate: The IT SEZ Takes Centre Stage

• Phase 1 is nearly ready, and early: The flagship commercial IT SEZ project is nearing completion almost 10 months ahead of schedule and is expected to be operational by Q2 FY26.
• Leasing demand is stronger than projected: Approximately 70% of the leasable area is covered by LOIs from a mix of large global and local companies, with indicative rentals now trending at INR70-75 per sq ft versus an earlier projection of INR60.
• Phase 2 follows quickly: With Phase 1 expected to be 70-80% leased and occupied by Q3 FY26, the company plans to launch Phase 2 in the same quarter, compressing the commercial rollout timeline.
• Lease income starts flowing in H2 FY26: Rental income from Phase 1 is expected to begin from Q3 FY26, adding a recurring revenue stream to what has been a purely sales-driven model.
• Ahmedabad's structural shift supports the bet: Events like the Olympics, Commonwealth Games, and GCC development are drawing outside investors into the city, tightening office supply after a period when commercial development had gone "dark."

B. Ravi: "We had about INR60 on the leasing area. We are seeing traction even better than that, around maybe INR70, INR75."

Godhavi Township: Early Monetization, Long Runway

• Monetization started a year ahead of the large-scale timeline: The company had guided that large-scale monetization of Godhavi would begin in Q3 FY26, but it already sold approximately 18 acres in FY25 at an average of INR26,000 per square metre.
• The total opportunity is large: The Godhavi land bank carries a potential turnover of around INR5,000 crores over the next 7 to 10 years, making it a multi-cycle value driver.
• Strategy blends plotted sales and bulk land deals: The township will be developed through a mix of plotted schemes sold directly to retail buyers and large land parcels sold to other developers, though the exact mix is difficult to predict.
• Plotted development begins Q3 FY26: The company expects to start plotted development around Q3 FY26, while continuing to sell larger parcels in parallel.
• Remaining land bank stands at 432 acres: After the 18-acre sale, the original 450-acre parcel now has 432 acres left to monetize.

Residential Pipeline: Waiting for the Signal

• Malabar Retreat is the active project: The 160-flat development is priced at around INR6,000 per sq ft, with the sample flat now ready to drive conversions once sentiment improves.
• Bookings expected to surge by July-August 2025: Management anticipates that improving market conditions and the completed sample flat will combine to accelerate presales around mid-2025.
• Pricing power is expected to build gradually: As bookings pick up, prices will increase incrementally, with a slightly higher realization expected by project completion.
• One Thaltej and SEZ residential are next in line: Plan approval for the Thaltej project is in final stages and expected within two months, with project commencement targeted for Q2 FY26. The SEZ residential project is likely to launch around the same July-August window if the market outlook improves as expected.
• No strategy shift toward commercial: Management clarified there is no deliberate tilt toward commercial over residential; the company takes projects as opportunities arise, and a good mix of both is the right approach given that office supply had dried up while demand is now returning.

Land Acquisition & Balance Sheet

• 17 acres acquired in FY25 in prime Ahmedabad pockets: The company bought land in some of the most happening areas of the city, with registration and asset capitalization ongoing.
• A further INR200 crores in land advances is deployed: Management has zeroed in on certain areas and expects the acquisition process to be completed in the coming year, though it declined to name specific micro-markets.
• The model remains asset-light and forward-funded: Land acquisitions are structured to preserve capital efficiency while the low-cost historical land bank continues to underpin robust margins.
• No expansion outside Gujarat is planned: Management sees 7 to 10 years of opportunity within Ahmedabad alone and has no current need or intention to acquire land outside the state.
• Zero debt and a healthy cash position: The company ended FY25 debt-free, giving it flexibility to fund both land acquisitions and construction without stretching the balance sheet.
• Dividend declared but payout was conservative: The Board declared a dividend of INR5 per share, a payout of about 7-8%, consciously choosing to conserve resources for the project pipeline ahead.

Guidance & Commitments

Key Metrics