Ganesh Housing Ltd Q3 FY2026 Concall Summary

Key Takeaways

• A self-described temporary pause: Revenue fell to INR92 crores and PAT to INR54 crores as the company held back land sales for better pricing, while FY25’s exceptional Godhavi monetization created a tough base. Management frames this as a timing issue, not a structural one.
• Margins remain fortress-level: EBITDA margin of 82.3% and PAT margin of 58.7% persisted despite the revenue dip, reflecting the low-cost land bank and disciplined capital allocation.
• Million Minds is the near-term catalyst: The 13.5 lakh sq ft tech building is fully constructed, LOIs cover 4 lakh of 7.25 lakh leasable sq ft at INR100+/sq ft, and management targets 100% leasing by March.
• Godhavi monetization is deliberately paced: Only 28 acres sold this year at ~INR14.5 crores/acre, with 12 acres remaining in Phase 1. Management explicitly declined to commit to a Q4 timeline, preferring to wait for better value.
• What to watch next quarter: Whether the 100% Million Minds leasing target is met by March, the pace of remaining Godhavi land sales, and the FY27 guidance promised alongside full-year results.

The Quarter’s Revenue Dip: Timing, Not Distress

• Base effect from an exceptional FY25: Last year was driven by large Godhavi land monetization deals; FY26 was always expected to be more execution-led, so the year-on-year decline was anticipated.
• Deliberate sales deferral: Management held back certain land inquiries in Q3 because they did not get the right opportunity or price, preferring to wait for better value rather than sell at unsatisfactory levels.
• Revenue composition is 100% project-driven land: The INR91 crores in Q3 came entirely from Godhavi land monetization, making quarterly revenue lumpy and dependent on transaction timing.
• FY26 will close below FY25: Management confirmed that revenues and profit are likely lower than the prior year, a function of the exceptional base and the pacing of land deals.

Ravi: "shramastha gato bhanu hu punar udeti dipti manaha which translates to the sun sets only for a moment and rises again in full brilliance the next morning. This applies exactly to what our performance has been. I would say, the past quarter represents a temporary pause in an otherwise steady trajectory with structural drivers in that we are positioned for renewed growth ahead."

Million Minds: The Annuity Engine Taking Shape

• Construction complete, OC application imminent: The tech building is fully constructed with ~13.5 lakh sq ft total built-up area and ~7.2 lakh sq ft leasable carpet area; the occupation certificate application will be submitted shortly.
• Leasing at INR100+/sq ft: LOIs have been received for 4 lakh sq ft out of 7.25 lakh sq ft total leasable area, with average agreed rentals exceeding INR100 per sq ft on carpet. Several tenants have already commenced interior fit-out.
• 100% leasing target by March: Management expressed confidence in achieving full leasing before month-end, with tenant names expected to be disclosed within one month of receiving the occupation certificate.
• Annuity income starts in Q1 FY27: Once operational, the building will provide predictable lease income from the first quarter itself, positioning the company more firmly in the commercial development and annuity segment.
• Multi-phase potential: Over the next 5 to 7 years, the Million Minds campus has potential to bring a substantial recurring revenue base across multiple phases. Phase 2 plans have been submitted for approval, with prelaunch processes already underway.
• Second commercial tower under consideration: Management is looking at launching a second tower adjacent to the current Million Minds commercial building, though residential plans for the campus remain unfinalized.

Godhavi Land Monetization: Patience Over Pace

• 28 acres sold this year at ~INR14.5 crores/acre: Total monetization till now stands at approximately 35-40 acres, with 12 acres still remaining in Phase 1.
• No commitment on Q4 monetization: When asked whether the remaining 12 acres would be sold by Q4, management declined to give advanced guidance, stating they need to watch the market and complete the year first.
• Pricing discipline over volume: Management explicitly stated they hold back inquiries when better opportunities are anticipated, and will only sell when the price is right, even if money is available.
• Development work begins September FY27: Real project work on the total Godhavi land will become much clearer from September onwards, with management waiting for Commonwealth Games announcements to become more specific before committing to a development timeline.

Ravi: "Many a times we do hold back certain inquiries too, looking to a better opportunity and a better sale value. So -- and if we want to really monetize on that at that point in time, if there is a requirement of money, you would as well do that rather than just wait for it."

Residential & Other Projects: Execution in Motion

• Malabar Retreat 74% complete: Structure construction is almost 100% complete and finishing work has started, less than two years after the March 2024 start. Completion is projected for March 2027, but management believes it could be completed within the next financial year itself, with possession handovers possibly even earlier.
• One 91 Thaltej plans submitted: Statutory approvals are expected in approximately one month, with project launch to follow immediately. This is a premium office and retail project expected to contribute good numbers over the coming 2 to 3 years.
• Million Minds Phase 2 in prelaunch: Plans have been submitted for approval with an expected timeline of end-February or early March; prelaunch processes are already underway.
• Lease rental discounting available: With 90-95% of leases tied up for Phase 1 SEZ, the company can use lease rental discounting for debt without burdening corporate cash flow, though the company remains debt-free for over three years.

Ahmedabad Macro: Structural Tailwinds, Not Yet Priced In

• EMI-to-income ratio at ~18%: Significantly lower than most metropolitan markets, providing affordability headroom that supports sustained housing demand.
• Infrastructure catalysts stacking up: GIFT City expansion, Metro Phase 2 development, improved road connectivity, and the AMC’s recent budget outlining a massive push on infrastructure, tourism, sports, mobility, water, digital governance, and urban aesthetics.
• Commonwealth Games 2030 impact not yet absorbed: While the government has made announcements and budget allocations, the city order is still pending. Management believes the announcement has not been fully absorbed in existing land price growth or investment interest, and expects traction only when work momentum picks up, likely in 6 to 9 months.
• AUDA FAR increase: The Ahmedabad Urban Development Authority increased FSI from 4 to 4.5 for certain transit-oriented zones, though the actual guideline with survey numbers is yet to be released.
• Green initiative exemptions: Gujarat government has moved exemptions of 7% to 12% for green/ESG initiatives; management claims Ganesh Housing will be the biggest beneficiary given its sustainability implementation.

Ravi: "I wouldn't say that just an announcement of 2030 as yet been completely absorbed in the existing land price growth or for that matter and investment interest completely. I would say that the moment work starts... when the momentum picks up, that's when you will actually see a lot of traction in the land prices as well as the investors interest in that."

Forecasting & Disclosure: Management Draws a Line

• FY27 guidance deferred to April/May: Management wants to wait for the next quarter to be completed and will provide guidance along with the final results of FY26, citing difficulty in projecting Godhavi land demand given its opportunity-driven nature.
• No specific launch months: When asked for a specific month in 2026 for the Thaltej or Godhavi project launches, management declined to provide one.
• Tenant names withheld pending OC: Management declined to disclose the names of tenants who have signed LOIs, stating they are waiting for the occupation certificate and will disclose within approximately one month of receiving it.
• Data center possibility remains open: The current master plan does not contain a specific data center, but management said they could consider it if demand-driven and beneficial.

Ravi: "See, when we have non-developmental one, this such kind of revenues, it becomes very difficult to really project how much of the Godhavi land demand can come up, and we believe that it is -- it's a good price to be selling it. So that is always going to be as per the opportunity."

Guidance & Commitments

Key Metrics