1. OTS of ₹750 cr completed, company debt-free save for bank guarantees Missed - At the Q1 FY21 call, management committed to fully reducing long-term debt in 12-18 months, with ₹400-600 cr of cash flow over 8-12 months going towards debt reduction. Long-term debt was reduced by 25% in FY21 to \~₹519 cr, but the company defaulted in Q2 FY22 with dues of ₹541 cr and entered CIRP in November 2022; an OTS of ₹750 cr was completed post-CIRP, well beyond the original horizon.
2. FY21 revenue same as FY20 Delivered - At the Q1 FY21 call, management guided that FY21 revenue will be the same as FY20. FY21 revenue was ₹3,900.5 cr, up 14% YoY from FY20's ₹3,427.3 cr, surpassing the flattish commitment.
3. EBITDA margins maintained at minimum 14-15% Missed - At the Q1 FY21 call, management guided EBITDA margins will be maintained at a minimum of 14-15%, later revised to 13-14% at Q3 FY21 and 12-13% by Q3 FY22. FY21 full-year EBITDA margin was 11.5%, FY22 H1 margin was 0.93%, and FY22 full-year OPM was -12.59%; margins never reached the 14-15% floor.
4. Order inflow of ₹3,000-4,000 crore in FY21 Delivered - At the Q1 FY21 call, management guided an order inflow target of ₹3,000-4,000 crore for FY21. In Q3 FY21, the company reported winning projects worth ₹3,500 crore since the beginning of the quarter, meeting the guided range.
5. Telangana irrigation project - finish execution over next 3-4 quarters Missed - At the Q1 FY21 call, management stated the company expects to finish execution of the Telangana irrigation project over the next three-four quarters. Balance work of ₹209 cr on Kaleswaram and ₹517 cr on PLIS Package 18 was still outstanding in Q2 FY22 schedules with completion pushed to Q3 FY22; no completion confirmation exists in our record.
6. Purvanchal Expressway - complete six months ahead of schedule by Aug 2021 Partial - At the Q2 FY21 call, management expected to complete Purvanchal Expressway six months ahead of the October-December 2021 schedule, implying mid-2021, later guided to August 2021. The project was physically completed around Q1-Q2 FY22, with provisional completion certificates being processed in November 2021, a delay of roughly one quarter.
7. Arbitration award - first tranche of \~₹220 cr in next couple of months Partial - At the Q1 FY21 call, management stated they expected to receive at least the first tranche of the arbitration award of about ₹220 crore in the next couple of months. By Q3 FY21, the company had received around ₹278 cr in claim and arbitration awards, including ₹208 cr from monetisation of an arbitration claim, though the specific receipt of a distinct "first tranche of \~₹220 cr" was not confirmed.
8. Arbitration/claim receipts - additional ₹200-300 cr in FY22 Missed - At the Q3 FY21 call, management guided additional arbitration and claim receipts of ₹200-300 cr for FY22, reiterated at Q4 FY21 and Q2 FY22. Our record holds no disclosure of ₹200-300 cr in arbitration receipts during FY22; the company defaulted and entered CIRP in November 2022.
9. Credit rating - improve by two notches in next three quarters Partial - At the Q3 FY21 call, management indicated a credit rating target of increasing by another two notches in the next three quarters, though the statement was cut off. Credit rating improved from D to B stable in Q3 FY21, a single notch, and then stalled; the company defaulted in Q2 FY22 and entered CIRP.
10. Working capital days - back to 80 days in FY22 Missed - At the Q3 FY21 call, management guided that working capital days will come back to 80 days in FY22. Our record holds no FY22 working-capital-days disclosure; the company defaulted in FY22 and entered CIRP.
11. FY22 revenue - 20-30% growth Missed - At the Q3 FY21 call, management guided FY22 revenue growth of 20-30%, later revised down to 0-5% growth in Q4 FY21 PPT, 15% at Q1 FY22, and 0-10% at Q2 FY22. FY22 revenue was ₹3,102 cr, down 20.46% YoY (SQL).
12. Gross debt - ₹1,600-1,700 cr in FY22 Missed - At the Q3 FY21 call, management guided that gross debt for FY22 is targeted to be around ₹1,600-1,700 crores. Total debt on book was \~₹2,000 cr at Q1 FY22, and the company defaulted in Q2 FY22 with outstanding dues of ₹541 cr; gross debt did not reach the target.
13. FY22 order inflow - ₹4,000-5,000 crore Missed - At the Q3 FY21 call, management guided FY22 order inflow of around ₹4,000-5,000 crores, later revised to ₹3,000-4,000 cr in Q4 FY21 PPT and Q1 FY22 PPT. Our record holds no FY22 order inflow figure; the company defaulted in Q2 FY22 and entered CIRP.
14. Sai Maatarini termination - settlement by June 2021 Missed - At the Q3 FY21 call, management guided that Sai Maatarini termination payment from NHAI should get settled by June 2021, later revised to the next quarter at Q4 FY21 and within three months at Q2 FY22. Our record holds no disclosure of a completed settlement; exposure was ₹237 cr with conciliation proceedings started July 2020.
15. Sembcorp thermal asset monetisation - in the next one year Missed - At the Q3 FY21 call, management guided they expect thermal asset monetisation from Sembcorp possibly in the next one year, reiterated at Q1 FY22 as movement within 12 months. Our record holds no disclosure of any monetisation proceeds from thermal or renewable assets during FY22-FY24; the company entered CIRP in November 2022.
16. UP Jal Jeevan Mission - additional 1,800 villages execution from July 2021 Partial - At the Q4 FY21 call, management guided execution of the additional UP Jal Jeevan Mission villages (1,800 villages, ₹2,500-3,000 cr) would start from July onwards, with DPRs for \~1,400 villages submitted. By Q1 FY22, DPRs for \~1,400 villages had been submitted and were under scrutiny, with conversion to a contract expected the next month; the SQL snapshot shows the company remained operational through FY26, though no specific contract award or execution start is confirmed.
17. FY22 interest cost - ₹250-275 cr Missed - At the Q4 FY21 call, management guided that interest cost will come down to between ₹250 and ₹275 crores in FY22. The company defaulted in Q2 FY22; interest of ₹140.51 cr charged by NHAI and MORTH on mobilisation advance was booked as an exceptional item, and FY22 OPM was -12.59%, implying interest costs remained elevated.
18. FY23 revenue - 15% growth over FY22 Missed - At the Q4 FY21 call, management guided FY23 revenue growth of nearly 15% over FY22. FY23 revenue was ₹1,017 cr, down 67.21% YoY from FY22's ₹3,102 cr; the company entered CIRP in November 2022 (SQL).
19. Hyderabad Karimnagar Road project - complete in 1-1.5 years, exit next year Missed - At the Q4 FY21 call, management guided the Hyderabad Karimnagar Road project will be completed in the next 1-1½ years and exited the following year. Our record holds no disclosure of completion or exit; the company defaulted and entered CIRP in November 2022.
20. Metro projects - qualify to bid independently from December 2021 Missed - At the Q4 FY21 call, management guided the company expects to qualify for Metro projects after about six months and bid independently from December 2021. Our record holds no disclosure of the company qualifying for or bidding on Metro projects independently; the company defaulted in FY22 and entered CIRP.
21. Preferential equity issue - ₹337 cr close by early September 2021 Missed - At the Q1 FY22 call, management said the preferential equity issue of \~₹337 crores is expected to close in the first week of September 2021, later revised to within 2-3 weeks at Q2 FY22. The strategic investor's wire transfer got stuck due to a wire investigation issue; our record holds no confirmation the allotment was ever completed.
22. Promoter personal asset monetisation - couple of hundred crores in next couple of months Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided promoters are working on personal asset monetisation targeting a couple of hundred crores infusion in the next couple of months. Our record holds no disclosure of any promoter asset monetisation or capital infusion; the company defaulted and entered CIRP.
23. Debt restructuring with banks - complete in next three months Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided the debt restructuring process with banks should be complete in the next three months. The company defaulted on repayment as of September 30, 2021 with outstanding dues of ₹541 cr and entered CIRP on November 15, 2022; no consensual restructuring was completed.
24. RoE and RoCE - low to mid 20s, D/E below 0.5x in next 2-3 years Missed - At the Q4 FY21 PPT, management guided the company is on track for low to mid 20s RoE and RoCE and D/E below 0.5x in the next 2-3 years. FY22 D/E was 36.58, FY23 ROCE was -54.62%, and FY26 D/E reached 0.51 with ROCE of 228% and ROE of 336%, but the company never achieved sustained low-to-mid-20s returns.