1. CDMO vs B2B mix - 50:50 for next 2 years On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management expected the CDMO vs B2B mix to remain around 50:50 for the next 2 years, with a possible skew toward CDMO once CY2029 is hit. Q1 FY27 CDMO revenue was 50% of total revenues and B2B was 50%; the 2-year horizon is not reached.
2. Insulin contract - fill cartridge capacity until GLP-1 ramp-up Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management said insulin vial and cartridge filling would occupy 3-4 crore of the 14 crore cartridge capacity over the next couple of years. An insulin contract was signed for the combo cartridge/vial line, after talks with a big insulin player in Q3 FY26; no read yet on actual utilization.
3. Saudi NUPCO tender - Enoxaparin tech transfer, volumes to come back Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management stated Saudi NUPCO tech transfer was ongoing with a local partner to manufacture Enoxaparin, saying "the volumes will come back"; the Q1 FY27 call still had NUPCO tender results expected shortly. Saudi Arabia disrupted ROW shipments through Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27, with ROW revenue broadly flat - no volume recovery yet.
4. Liraglutide US launch - Q4 FY26 Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management stated the Liraglutide partner had received US approval and Gland was "ready for the US launch in this quarter". Liraglutide was launched in the US in January 2026, and the Q4 FY26 call confirmed the FY26 launch.
5. Dalbavancin - US approval and launch Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call (September 2025), management set the Dalbavancin goal date as "actually this month," with revenue expected "in this and next quarters"; by Q3 FY26 the US goal date had moved to February. Approval came in February 2026 with launch in US and European markets and strong demand and ramp-up, and Q1 FY27 showed an encouraging US launch continuing to ramp.
6. CMS dry powder - dossiers submitted next quarter, launch early next year Partial - At the Q1 FY26 call, management said CMS dry powder dossiers would be submitted next quarter with launch in Europe and other markets beginning of next year; by Q4 FY26 the CMS project was set to commercialize from Q3 of FY27. The CMS lyo product launched in Q1 FY26 and the \~₹150 crore Xellia tech-transfer project was approved, but full commercial launch timing has slipped from the original target.
7. Cenexi new ampoule line at Fontenay - 3 crore ampoule capacity by 2027 Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management said a new high-capacity ampoule line at Fontenay would be installed in August 2026, adding 3 crore ampoule capacity by 2027; Q1 FY27 set production entry for early 2027 with \~3 crore ampoules of annual capacity. Installation is planned for August 2026; the 2027 horizon is not reached.
8. Biologics capacity expansion - 8 KL to 23 KL On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management planned to expand biologic CDMO capacity from 8 KL to 23 KL "over the next phase", later detailed as a Greenfield at Shamirpet with a 20% IRR hurdle. Contracts were in active discussion with none signed as of Q3 FY26; the multi-year horizon is not reached.
9. China liposomal in-licensing - meaningful revenue from FY30 Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management stated China liposomal in-licensing commercial opportunities and meaningful revenue contribution were expected to start from FY30. The FY30 horizon is not reached; no outcome yet.
10. Co-development partnership - 15 products, commercialization from FY27/FY28 Pending - At the Q3 FY25 call, management expected commercialization of the 15 complex formulations co-developed with MAIA Pharmaceuticals to begin from FY27; the Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27 PPTs moved this to FY28. No commercialization yet; the FY28 horizon is not reached.
11. Oncology CDMO contract - commercialization H2 FY28, $25-30 million annual revenue Pending - At the Q3 FY26 call, management said the new oncology CDMO contract timeline is FY28, "probably third or fourth quarter [or] end of '28", with revenues around $25-30 million per year; Q1 FY27 reconfirmed development '28 and commercialization '29. The FY28-FY29 commercialization horizon is not reached.
12. Strategic manufacturing agreement - 55 SKUs, $90-100 million revenue potential from CY2029 Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management announced a strategic manufacturing agreement with a leading global pharmaceutical company covering 55 SKUs, with technology transfer to complete within 2 years and annualized revenue potential of \~$90-100 million from CY2029. Tech transfer is to start from September 2026; the CY2029 horizon is not reached.
13. 15% consolidated revenue CAGR over next 4-5 years Pending - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided a 15% CAGR over 5 years as organic growth, excluding inorganic; Q4 FY26 framed it as 15% consolidated revenue CAGR over four years, and Q1 FY27 raised it to \~20% growth over the next 4 years. The horizon extends to FY30-FY31; no read yet on achievement.
14. FY27 Cenexi revenue - \~€200 million On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided Cenexi revenue of about €200 million for FY27, confirmed near €200 million at Q1 FY27. Q1 FY27 Cenexi revenue was €48 million, consistent with the annual target; the full-year outcome is not yet due.
15. FY27 consolidated revenue growth - 12-13% constant currency On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided FY27 consolidated revenue growth of 12-13% on a constant-currency basis, excluding GLP-1; Q1 FY27 raised this to \~15% constant-currency growth. Q1 FY27 consolidated revenue grew 20% YoY in INR terms with 15% constant-currency growth; the full-year outcome is not yet due.
16. FY26 consolidated revenue growth - mid-teens Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided mid-teens growth for the consolidated business in FY26, reiterated through Q3 FY26. FY26 consolidated revenue was ₹6,430.7 crore, up 14.5% YoY - within the mid-teens range.
17. GLP-1/pen/cartridge capacity - 4 crore to 14 crore units Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management stated cartridge capacity was being scaled from 4 crore to 14 crore units by CY2026, with the line delivered by Q3 FY26 and exhibit batches expected by Q2 FY27. By Q4 FY26, pen/cartridge capacity stood at 14 crore units per annum, with 8 GLP-1 contracts signed - within the CY2026 target.
18. Base business EBITDA margin - 32-33% for FY25 Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided base business EBITDA margin at "around 32%, 33%" for full year FY25. FY25 base business EBITDA margin was 35%, with quarterly prints of 29%, 34%, 39% and 38% - above the guided range.
19. Base business growth - mid-teens for FY25 Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided base business (ex-Cenexi) full-year growth at "the mid-teens"; Q2 FY25 revised consolidated growth guidance to "low double-digit". FY25 base business revenue was ₹4,124.8 crore, a 1% decline from FY24, with consolidated revenue of ₹5,616.5 crore flat YoY - the mid-teens target was not achieved.
20. Cenexi capex - €60 million over 12-18 months Partial - At the Q2 FY24 call, management committed to invest approximately €60 million in capex and working capital at Cenexi over the next 12-18 months; by Q4 FY25 this was spread over 2-3 years. FY26 group capex was ₹493.8 crore with H1 FY26 capex of ₹196.9 crore mainly deployed at Cenexi - executed, but over a longer timeframe than originally committed.
21. Cenexi EBITDA margin - 10% in midterm, high-teen margins medium-to-long term Missed - At the Q2 FY24 call, management guided Cenexi normalized EBITDA margins around 10-11% quarterly and \~10% annually, and at Q4 FY24 the Cenexi CEO committed to "high-teen margins" in 1-2 years; later guidance moved to double-digit EBITDA by end of FY27. Actual margins were -5% in FY24, -12% in FY25, -2% in FY26 and 4% in Q1 FY27 - the 10% target was never achieved.
22. Cenexi revenue - €200 million threshold for FY26 Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management reaffirmed Cenexi outlook for positive EBITDA for FY26, driven by revenue exceeding the €200 million threshold, a goal reiterated through Q3 FY25. FY26 Cenexi revenue was €182 million, short of the threshold, which has been pushed to FY27 with Q1 FY27 revenue of €48 million.
23. Cenexi EBITDA breakeven - Q4 FY25, then Q3 FY26 Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management reaffirmed Cenexi outlook for positive EBITDA in Q4 FY25 and for FY26; breakeven was pushed to Q3 FY26 after the ANSM inspection and reaffirmed through Q2 FY26. Cenexi achieved EBITDA breakeven in Q1 FY26 at €0.9 million - ahead of the revised target - and delivered €1 million EBITDA in Q3 FY26.
24. Cenexi acquisition - close by March-April 2023 Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management hoped to close the Cenexi acquisition by March-April 2023. The acquisition formally closed on April 27, 2023, with consolidation in Q1 FY24 for two months - within the stated timeframe.
25. US launches - \~$3 billion market over next three quarters (from Q4 FY22) Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management said US launches planned over the next three quarters were worth about $3 billion, with about 24-25 molecule launches planned. FY23 saw 28 product approvals, Q1 FY24 alone had 23 molecules launched in the US, and FY24 delivered 50+ new molecules including 30+ relaunches - the launch cadence was broadly achieved.
26. Fixed asset turnover - 3x-3.5x near term Missed - At the Q1 FY22 call, the CFO stated fixed asset turnover was expected at 3x-3.5x in the near term, with Q2 FY25 noting new Pashamylaram lines would bring Gland back to an old 2-2.5x rate. Actual turnover ran 3.6x in Q1 FY22 and 2.6x in FY23, then fell to 1.5x in FY24, 1.4x in FY25, 1.5x in FY26 and 1.6x in Q1 FY27 - far below the target.
27. Working capital normalization - by end of FY22 Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management said working capital was expected to come back to normal operating levels by the end of FY22. The cash conversion cycle stayed at 187 days in FY22, worsened to 256 days in FY23, then improved to 169 days in Q4 FY24, 148 days in Q1 FY25, 164 days in Q4 FY26 and 155 days in Q1 FY27 - the end-FY22 target was not met.
28. ROW markets - 35-40% of total revenue in 4-5 years Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management internally targeted ROW markets to reach 35-40% of total revenue over the next 4-5 years, up from \~21%, with Q4 FY25 seeing the ROW business doubling over 3-5 years. ROW share was 19% in FY22 and FY23, 20% in FY24, 17% in FY26 and 17% in Q1 FY27 - the 4-5 year horizon has arrived far below the target.
29. China revenue target - 10% of revenue in 4-5 years Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management set a target of at least 10% of revenue coming from China in 4 to 5 years; by Q4 FY24 management said progress "reached lower than anticipated" and was reassessing the approach. Only one product was commercialized with unsubstantial contribution by Q4 FY24, and no meaningful China revenue has been disclosed through Q1 FY27.
30. Biosimilar CDMO - first dollar revenue by Q4 FY23 Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management said biosimilar CDMO discussions with Henlius were ongoing, with Q1 FY23 guiding first dollar revenue in Q4 FY23; the timeline later extended to DRL collaboration revenue from FY26. The first biotech CDMO contract was signed with Plasma Protein in Q4 FY23, DRL revenue started from Q2 FY26 and now generates \~₹50-60 crore a year - delivered, though meaningful revenue slipped to FY26.
31. EBITDA margin target - \~40% annually Partial - At the Q1 FY22 call, management targeted \~40% EBITDA margin on an annual basis, later revised to 33-35% for the next two years and base-business framings of 30-38%. Actual consolidated EBITDA margins were 40% in FY21, 37% in FY22, 28% in FY23, 24% in FY24, 23% in FY25, 26% in FY26 and 28% in Q1 FY27, while base business recovered to 34-38% - the \~40% level was not sustained.
32. US market growth - 18-20% in FY22 Missed - At the Q1 FY22 call, management expected \~18-20% growth in the US market, saying the quarter's 11% should not be taken as a marker. FY22 US business grew 13%, and FY23 core markets declined 8%; later years saw US growth of 27% in FY24, 9% in FY25 and 11% in FY26 - the FY22 target was not achieved.
33. Complex injectables filings - 2-3 in FY22, 4 by end of FY23, 8 in FY23 Partial - At the Q4 FY21 call, management stated of \~16-17 complex injectables in development, two or three filings would happen in FY22, with Q3 FY22 adding a pipeline of eight complex filings in FY23. FY22 delivered 4 complex filings but FY23 only 3; by Q4 FY26, 6 of the 19 targeted molecules were launched with 3 more in line for approval - the FY22 target was met, the FY23 pace was not.
34. R&D spend - maintained at 3-4% of revenue (five-year plan) Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management stated R&D spend would be maintained at 3-4% of revenue as a five-year plan, with absolute spend growing \~25-32% in line with revenue; guidance later moved to 4-5% and then \~5% of sales. Actual R&D ran 3.5% in FY21, 4.4% in FY22, 5.6% in FY23, 4.3% in FY24, 4.7% in FY25, 5% in FY26 and 4% in Q1 FY27 - within or near the guided range throughout.
35. Enoxaparin supply shift from Innovator to Gland - last quarter of FY22 Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management stated the Enoxaparin supply shift from Innovator to Gland was expected in the last quarter of FY22, with the ramp later extending through June-July 2022. US Enoxaparin sales reached \~₹160 crore in Q1 FY23 vs \~₹47 crore in Q4 FY22, FY24 contracts grew "almost like 2x to 3x", and FY25 Enoxaparin and Heparin contributed about 14% of total revenue - the shift occurred and volumes ramped at the revised 1.5-1.6 crore unit level.
36. Biologics facility investment - ₹270 crore for vaccine and biosimilar readiness Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management committed to spend about ₹270 crore on the new biologics facility (including the acquired Vitane facility) for vaccine and future biosimilar readiness; Q1 FY22 earmarked \~₹300 crore of the ₹570 crore FY22 capex for this. By Q3 FY23, \~₹300 crore had been spent on the biosimilar CDMO facility, with 60 KL of drug-substance capacity created by Q2 FY22 - the investment was executed, slightly above plan.
37. ANDA filing target - 20-24 annually, later raised to \~24, then 40-50% increase Partial - At the Q3 FY21 call, management stated the company files about 20-24 ANDAs on an ongoing basis annually, with Q2 FY22 targeting a 40-50% increase from the historical 23-24. Actual filings were 21 in FY21, 29 in FY22, 29 in FY23, 19 in FY24, 24 in FY25, 24 in FY26 and 3 in Q1 FY27 - the baseline was mostly met but the raised target was not, with FY24 dropping below the original range.
38. Capex plan - ₹250 cr FY21 and FY22, ₹300 cr FY22, ₹200-250 cr FY23 Delivered - At the Q3 FY21 call, the CFO stated the company would spend about ₹250 crore of capex in FY21 and FY22, covering the next 3 years' growth plan; guidance later evolved to a ₹2,000 crore brownfield program over 3-5 years with FY27 capex of \~₹550 crore. Actual capex was ₹228.8 crore in FY21, ₹522.1 crore in FY22, ₹223 crore in FY23, ₹397.5 crore in FY24, ₹393.8 crore in FY25, ₹493.8 crore in FY26 and ₹113.2 crore in Q1 FY27 - broadly in line with guided ranges, with the ₹2,000 crore program execution commenced.
39. China product filings - 12 filings in 12 months, first approvals by end-2021/early-2022 Partial - At the Q3 FY21 call, management planned to file another 12 products in China in the next 12 months, with first launches estimated by end of 2021 or H1 2022; the timeline slipped repeatedly, with Q1 FY24 still awaiting the second approval. The first China approval (Dexrazoxane) came in Q4 FY23, and by Q4 FY24 nine products were filed, three approved and one commercialized with unsubstantial contribution - achieved roughly 2 years late and well short of the original plan.
40. COVID-19 vaccine finished product - \~4 crore vials annually Missed - At the Q3 FY21 call, management planned to offer manufacture of nearly 4 crore vials of COVID-19 vaccine finished product annually, with Q4 FY21 adding Sputnik V production by Q3 FY22 under an RDIF contract for 25.2 crore doses. No commercial vaccine fill-finish batches beyond validation were ever produced; the facility was repurposed toward biosimilar CDMO, and the FY22 annual report called the initiative a setback.