1. Limestone development - 250 crore tonnes in three waves in Kutch On track - In the FY25 Annual Report, management stated GMDC is developing over 250 crore tonnes of limestone in three waves in Kutch, anchoring private investment through long-term agreements covering 80 crore tonnes. Three partners for limestone at Lakhpat mine were secured through national competitive bidding and an EOI for the limestone project was launched.
2. Bauxite beneficiation plants - investment ₹15-45 crore Pending - In the FY24 Annual Report, management stated GMDC is planning the establishment of bauxite beneficiation plants, with investments anticipated between ₹15 crore and ₹45 crore. No evidence of bauxite beneficiation plant establishment or investment has appeared in our record.
3. Total capex - \~₹13,000 crore by 2030, at least ₹2,000 crore per year On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided total capex of \~₹13,000 crore by 2030, with a steady rate of at least ₹2,000 crore per year, and the FY25 AR cited ₹13,400 crore in planned investments. FY25 actual capex was ₹644 crore and FY26 CWIP stands at ₹215 crore, down from ₹741 crore in FY25, a run rate significantly below the annual target.
4. Debt - no debt in FY26 or FY27 Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided that the company does not expect to take any debt in FY26 or FY27, with debt possibly starting towards the end of FY27. FY26 debt stands at ₹309 crore with a D/E of 0.04, contrary to the explicit no-debt guidance (SQL).
5. Rare earth project - commercialization in a few years On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided the rare earth project will commercialize in "a few years only," while the Q1 FY25 call set a "3-year horizon". An LOI has been received, Mackenzie was engaged for a strategic roadmap, and an RFP for a scoping study is in final stages, though no production has begun.
6. Copper Project Ambaji - production/revenue in FY28 Pending - At the Q4 FY25 call, management discussed project timelines broadly, noting a few quarters' shift was possible but expressing confidence in the overall journey. The FY25 AR detailed a capex of \~₹350 crore for the mine and \~₹450 crore for a beneficiation plant, with Phase-I core drilling having completed 156 meters by March 2025 out of a 24,000-meter plan.
7. FY25 capex - in excess of ₹3,000 crore Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided FY25 capex of "in excess of INR3,000 crores". Actual FY25 capex was ₹644 crore, with CWIP rising from ₹292 crore in FY24 to ₹741 crore in FY25, indicating deployment far below the plan.
8. FY24 capex - \~₹2,900 crore Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided total FY24 capex of \~₹2,900 crores, calling it "the most ambitious and aggressive CAPEX plan ever". FY24 CWIP was ₹292 crore, up from ₹28.49 crore in FY23, indicating a massive underspend versus the plan (SQL).
9. EBITDA margins - maintain around 30% Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided the company would maintain EBITDA margins of around 30%. FY24 OPM was 24.74%, FY25 OPM was 22.40%, and FY26 OPM fell to 16.73%, with every quarter since the guidance posting margins below 30% (SQL).
10. Odisha coal mines - operational in 4.5 years, timeline to be crunched On track - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided a 4.5-year timeline to operationalize two Odisha coal blocks and aimed to "crunch" it, with the Q4 FY25 call targeting Baitarani-West groundbreaking in FY26 and first-year production of \~1 million tonnes. Public hearing for Baitarani-West was favourably concluded, mining plan approvals were achieved, and payments for land have been initiated.
11. Company to be three or four times itself in 5-6 years Pending - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided the company should be "three or four times itself" in 5-6 years, a target reaffirmed as "Lakshya 2030" for 4X growth by FY2030 and Project Shikhar targeting ₹14,500 crore revenue by 2030. FY23 revenue was ₹3,502 crore, FY25 revenue was ₹2,851 crore, and FY26 revenue declined further to ₹2,653 crore, a negative trajectory against the target.
12. Company to stand at 3-5 crore tonnes of lignite production in 2-3 years Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided lignite production of 3-5 crore tonnes in 2-3 years, a target later scaled back to 1.5 crore tonnes by 2035 at the Q4 FY25 call. FY25 production was 0.8 crore tonnes, and the 2-3 year horizon from December 2022 ended in FY26 with no new mines operational.
13. Akrimota Thermal Power Station - ₹300 crore capex pass-through, results from February 2024 Partial - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided a ₹300 crore capex pass-through for the power plant would be deployed from Q3 FY24 with results from February 2024, and the Q4 FY25 call noted ₹300-400 crore spent would be recovered as pass-through. GERC approval was received and a Supplementary Agreement with GUVNL was signed, but the overhaul is behind schedule due to critical spare delays, and the plant operated at just 4.02% PLF in FY25.
14. Bhavnagar mine - 0.33 crore tonnes in FY24, ramp to 0.5 crore tonnes Partial - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided Bhavnagar mine to produce 0.33 crore tonnes in FY24, with an earlier Q2 FY23 call targeting a ramp to 0.5 crore tonnes. FY25 production reached 0.2 crore tonnes, environmental clearance was upgraded to 5 MTPA, and FY26 is estimated at 0.3 crore tonnes after land acquisition issues were resolved.
15. Bauxite - pilot project by end of February 2023, boom in FY24 Partial - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided the bauxite pilot project would commence by end of February 2023 with a "boom" in FY24 and a disposal target of \~0.09 crore tonnes. FY24 bauxite sales reached 4.20 lakh tonnes against a revised target of more than 5 lakh tonnes, and FY25 achieved a record 5.0 lakh tonnes contributing ₹105 crore in revenue.
16. Fluorspar beneficiation plant - restart in FY23 Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided the Fluorspar plant at Kadipani would restart "probably in this fiscal year" (FY23), later revised at the Q3 FY23 call to a trial run by August 15, 2023 and commercial production in Q4 FY24. Production resumed only in FY25, with a trial run selling 1,156 MT and generating ₹3 crore.
17. FY23 capex - \~₹600 crore Partial - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided FY23 capex of around ₹600 crores, with ₹450 crores allocated to acquired land, and the Q2 FY23 call reaffirmed "slightly in excess of ₹600 crores". By H1 FY23, management acknowledged "nothing much has been done" on capex, and CWIP rose only from ₹22.93 crore in FY22 to ₹28.49 crore in FY23, suggesting minimal execution.
18. Akrimota Thermal Power Station - achieve \~60% PLF and zero daily cash burn Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided the Akrimota Thermal Power Plant would achieve \~60% PLF and zero daily cash burn, with the Q3 FY22 call noting profitability required 65-70% PLF. FY23 PLF was 38%, FY25 PLF collapsed to 4.02%, and the power division ran at ₹25 crore revenue with an ₹11 crore loss, with the plant still loss-making through FY25.
19. Strategic consultant engagement - award within one month, 3+9 month plan Partial - At the Q1 FY22 call, management stated the award of work to a strategic consultant "should be over in the next month" with a 3-month conceptual plan and 9-month implementation support. BCG was appointed by January 2022, Phase-I was completed by Q1 FY23 with an actionable report, and multiple consultants including McKinsey, AT Kearney, and Deloitte were onboarded across workstreams, though the full 3+9 month engagement outcome remains unconfirmed.
20. Dynamic pricing system - fortnightly price reviews Partial - At the Q1 FY22 call, management stated the board had decided on fortnightly price reviews and "you would see better realizations and realistic realizations". The board authorised dynamic pricing in August 2021, and the average weighted lignite price rose from \~₹1,500 in September 2021 to ₹4,000-4,200 by Q4 FY22, with a customer grading initiative subsequently launched, though no evidence confirms the fortnightly review mechanism was sustained as a completed outcome.
21. Six new lignite projects - operational within 2.5-3 years Partial - At the Q1 FY22 call, management stated six new lignite projects would be operational within 2.5 to 3 years, with the Q4 FY25 call revising contributions to "next year onwards" (FY27+) and acknowledging projects are "a few quarters delayed". As of FY25, six new mines including Lakhpat-Punrajpar, Ghala, and Damlai are being worked towards operationalisation, but no new mine has begun production.
22. Akrimota Thermal Power Station - critical decision on future in coming months Partial - At the Q1 FY22 call, management stated they would take a "critical decision on the future of this plant in the coming months," with the Q4 FY22 call confirming the decision to dispose of the plant "has been withdrawn". The plant was described as turned around and made profitable in the FY23 AR, but FY25 PLF was 4.02% with output of 8.81 crore units, and the overhaul remains behind schedule with the plant still loss-making.
23. Lignite production - 10% growth every year over 3-year horizon Partial - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided "10% growth every year" in production over a 3-year horizon from an FY21 base of 60 lakh tonnes, with the Q4 FY22 call revising to 10-15% per annum growth. FY22 production rose to 0.85 crore tonnes, but FY23 production was targeted to match that level and FY25 production declined to 0.8 crore tonnes, leaving the 3-year horizon ending FY25 with no sustained growth from the base.