1. FY28 steady-state margins - India 13-13.5%, Africa 10-10.5% On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management estimated FY28 steady-state India EBITDA margin "of the order of 13% to 13.5%" and Africa "about 10% to 10.5%". Q1 FY27 India OPM was 9.75% and Africa EBITDA 8%; FY28 is not yet reached.
2. BTPL FY27 revenue - in excess of ₹1,000 cr On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management said BTPL revenue for FY27 "should be in excess of ₹1,000 crores based on the momentum". Q1 FY27 BTPL turnover was \~₹170 cr - an annualized \~₹680 cr, below target; FY27 is not yet complete.
3. FY27 capex - \~₹100 cr India + \~₹150 cr Africa Pending - At the Q2 FY26 call, management expected FY27 capex on new capacity/projects of \~₹100 cr (India) plus \~₹150 cr Africa. At Q1 FY27, management noted some early FY27 capex with larger spend in FY28; no FY27 spend has been disclosed in our record.
4. H2 FY26 Africa revenue - exceed $50 million Missed - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided H2 FY26 Africa revenue "should exceed USD 50 million". Q3 FY26 Africa revenue was \~₹149 cr (\~$17m) and Q4 FY26 \~₹227 cr (\~$26m), giving roughly $43m for H2 FY26 - below the $50m target.
5. Tariff impact - \~2.5% for FY26 Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management estimated a net tariff impact of \~2.5% for FY26, later quantifying \~₹40-45 cr per quarter at Q2 FY26. FY26 net tariff discount came in at over ₹90 cr, \~2.2% of FY26 revenue of ₹4,065 cr - close to the estimate.
6. Combined group ROCE - closer to 16-17% by FY28 On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, management stated combined group ROCE should be "closer to 16%-17%" by FY28. Reported financials show FY26 ROCE of 8.5%; the horizon is not reached, with BTPL merger and margin improvements expected to drive the improvement.
7. BTPL turnaround - financially "in a year" Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management believed BTPL could be turned around financially "in a year". One year later, at Q1 FY27, BTPL EBITDA was -7.5% to -8%, with profitability now targeted for Q3-Q4 FY27.
8. H2 FY25 revenue run-rate - ₹1,000+ cr per quarter Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management said "we should be topping ₹1,000 crores" per quarter in H2 FY25. Q3 FY25 total income crossed the ₹1,000 cr milestone and Q4 FY25 total income was ₹1,035 cr - both quarters exceeded ₹1,000 cr.
9. Acquired entities growth push - from FY26 onwards Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management stated a growth push for acquired entities was expected from FY26 onwards rather than FY25. In FY26 the Africa business declined 19%, with acquired entities underperforming amid tariff disruption.
10. FY25 pieces shipped - match or better FY24's 2.9 cr pieces Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management hoped FY25 pieces shipped would match or better FY24's 2.9 cr pieces. FY25 volumes came in at Gokaldas 3.32 cr + Atraco 2.77 cr + Matrix 0.74 cr = 6.83 cr pieces - Gokaldas standalone alone exceeded the 2.9 cr target.
11. Manufacturing diversification - away from South India Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management stated it would, over a period of time, diversify manufacturing away from South India to access lower-cost labor. Bhopal (MP), Ranchi (Jharkhand) and Kolar Gold Fields (Karnataka) units are operational - diversification into central and eastern India executed.
12. FY24 EBITDA margin - 12%-12.5% Partial - At the Q2 FY24 call, management's endeavor was to work towards an EBITDA margin of 12%-12.5% for FY24. FY24 consolidated EBITDA margin came in at 11.8%, slightly below the guided range.
13. FY24 revenue - closer to ₹2,200 cr standalone, \~10% consolidated growth Partial - At the Q2 FY24 call, management anticipated getting closer to ₹2,200 cr standalone in FY24, with Atraco contributing from Q4 and \~10% consolidated revenue growth. FY24 consolidated revenue was ₹2,409 cr, +7.2% - growth fell short of \~10%.
14. Demand-supply improvement - H2 FY25 pricing power return Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, management expected demand-supply conditions to improve towards H2 FY25, with pricing power "reasonably likely" to return. At Q2 FY25, pricing improvements were "not on the cards" for the year, and FY26 saw tariff discounts of over ₹90 cr.
15. Knits share - 30% of mix post acquisitions Pending - At the Q3 FY24 call, management stated knits will be 30% of the mix post all acquisitions. The record discloses product-mix detail for Matrix (80% casual wear) and outerwear (\~30% of Gokaldas revenue), but no explicit knits percentage to verify the target.
16. Matrix EPS/margin accretive from FY25 Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management stated Matrix will be EPS/margin accretive from FY25. Matrix's EBITDA margin was \~14% in Q3 FY25, above Gokaldas standalone margins - consistent with margin accretion from FY25.
17. ₹600 cr capital raise - enabling resolution Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, an enabling resolution was being sought to potentially raise ₹600 cr of capital "in any form in the year ahead". A ₹600 cr QIP was raised in April 2024, within that window.
18. Bangladesh entry - decision within 6 months (from Q3 FY24) Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, management said a decision on entering Bangladesh would be taken over the next 6 months. No investment decision had been made as of Q1 FY27 - the deadline lapsed and the decision has been repeatedly deferred, most recently pending February elections.
19. FY25 core business revenue growth - minimum 15% YoY Delivered - The FY24 annual report guided FY25 core business revenue growth of a minimum 15% YoY. FY25 core business (excluding acquired entities) delivered total income of ₹2,603 cr, +19% YoY - above the minimum.
20. ₹280 cr capex over next few years (from FY22) Delivered - The FY22 annual report planned ₹280 cr of investment over the next few years, after ₹84 cr capex in FY22. Capex included ₹84 cr Perundurai + ₹32 cr Bhopal in FY23 and ₹102 cr in 9M FY24 - cumulative spend exceeded ₹280 cr.
21. Bhopal new unit - production April 2022 Missed - The FY21 annual report stated the new Bhopal unit would commence production in April 2022. The MP unit started commercial production in June 2023, roughly 14 months later than the target.
22. FY22 capacity augmentation - near-term, substantial revenue growth Delivered - The FY21 annual report anticipated substantial revenue growth in FY22, with capacity augmentation over the near term. FY22 revenue grew 47% to ₹1,790 cr with net profit crossing ₹100 cr, and three new units were commissioned in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.
23. Atraco and Matrix synergies - over 4-6 quarters from August 2024 Partial - The FY24 annual report (August 2024) expected synergies from the Atraco and Matrix acquisitions over the next 4-6 quarters. Integration ran ahead of schedule at Q1 FY25 and legacy headwinds were behind by Q4 FY25, but by Q4 FY26 acquisitions were "not up to our targets" amid tariff disruption.
24. New Karnataka and Jharkhand factories - \~₹175 cr revenue each, on stream H2 FY28, full potential FY29 Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided two brand-new facilities in Karnataka and Ranchi with \~₹175 cr steady-state revenue each, ₹50 cr investment each (₹100 cr total), on stream H2 FY28 and full potential FY29. The internal go-ahead is expected within 3 months; no construction milestones yet.
25. FY27 consolidated revenue growth - \~15% or better On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management said FY27 growth excluding UK/EU FTA benefits would be "much more than" 10-12%, later refined at Q1 FY27 to a \~15% target that "probably should do better than that". Q1 FY27 consolidated revenue grew 20.69% YoY - above the target so far.
26. Revenue mix rebalancing - US share to \~60% or under, Europe+UK to \~20% On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management aimed to cut the US revenue share from \~70% to "about 60% or under," with UK+EU approaching 20% "in the foreseeable future". Europe's share rose from \~4% (Q3 FY23) to 13.4% at Q1 FY26 and \~14-16% at Q3 FY26, but the US share remained \~72%.
27. FY27 EBITDA margin - over 12% (assuming tariff returns to 20%) On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided FY27 EBITDA margin at "over 12%" as reported, assuming tariff returns to 20%, later refined to "a bit higher than what we've indicated". Q1 FY27 OPM was 9.75% against FY26's 8.94%; tariff normalization from July 2026 is still to play out.
28. Consolidated revenue - ₹4,500 cr at 90-95% utilization after capex completion On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided a consolidated top line of "about 4,500 [crores] or thereabouts" for coming years at 90-95% utilization post capex. FY26 total income was ₹4,065 cr and Q1 FY27 annualized run-rate is \~₹4,616 cr - within reach, with capex still ramping.
29. Africa revenue - $120-125 million in FY27 On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management's endeavour was to push African revenues to $120-125 million in FY27, narrowed at Q4 FY26 to \~$115-120 million and visible at $112-115 million at Q1 FY27. FY26 Africa revenue was \~$80 million, and Q1 FY27 Africa grew 45% YoY.
30. Three new Indian factories - on stream Q3 FY26, ₹325-400 cr incremental revenue Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management timed three new Indian factories (MP Phase 2, Karnataka, Jharkhand) to come on stream Q3 FY26, contributing \~₹325-400 cr annually. The factories had come up by Q2 FY26, but commercial production slipped to FY27; ramp-ups are "completely on track" at Q1 FY27, with no revenue contribution yet disclosed.
31. BTPL - ₹1,800 cr peak revenue at 12%+ EBITDA, FY28 turnover ₹1,600-1,800 cr On track - At the Q1 FY25 call, management framed BTPL full-capacity revenue at \~₹1,800 cr with 12%+ EBITDA, refined at Q4 FY26 to FY27 revenue "in excess of ₹1,000 crores" and FY28 margin "perhaps more closer to 12%". Q1 FY27 BTPL turnover was \~₹170 cr with EBITDA -7.5% to -8%, with positivity targeted from Q3 FY27.
32. BTPL investment - up to ₹350 cr OCD, merger by FY27 On track - At the Q1 FY25 call, management agreed to invest up to ₹350 cr via OCD in BTPL, anticipating ₹200-250 cr or less, with merger initiation "sometime in the next financial year". Actual deployment was ₹175 cr via OCD plus a 13.3% equity stake for ₹55.67 cr; the merger is now targeted for Q3 FY27 and is not yet complete.
33. Atraco 500-machine expansion - revenue potential ₹125-130 cr Partial - At the Q3 FY25 call, management stated the Atraco 500-machine expansion's revenue potential at \~₹125-130 cr, with the expansion completed by Q4 FY25 and set to "start playing out" in FY26. Africa revenue instead declined 24% YoY in Q2 FY26 on AGOA uncertainty, and the ₹125-130 cr contribution has not been disclosed.
34. FY25 capex - \~₹100 cr plan Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management planned FY25 capex of \~₹75 cr normal plus ₹40 cr Bhopal Phase 2, \~₹100 cr or less, detailed at Q4 FY24 as ₹40 cr Bhopal, ₹50 cr efficiency, ₹10 cr Matrix and ₹15 cr Atraco. By Q2 FY25, ₹55 cr of the ₹100 cr was incurred; no material deviation appears in the record.
35. FY25 revenue - Atraco match FY24 (\~$90m), Matrix ₹450-500 cr Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management aimed for Atraco to at least match FY24's \~$90 million revenue and Matrix to meet ₹450-500 cr "or if not, we even better it". FY25 revenue computes to \~₹848 cr (\~$100m) for Atraco and \~₹424 cr for Matrix - Atraco exceeded its target, Matrix fell short.
36. Atraco and Matrix normalized EBITDA margins - 10-10.5% and 11% in a few quarters Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management targeted normalized Atraco EBITDA margin of 10-10.5% and Matrix 11% "in a few quarters". Matrix hit \~14% in Q3 FY25, but Atraco was \~7% then, turned negative in Q2 FY26, and Africa EBITDA was still 8% at Q1 FY27 with double-digit now targeted for Q4 FY27.
37. Atraco acquisition - closing by end of Q3 FY24 Partial - At the Q2 FY24 call, management anticipated the Atraco acquisition would be concluded "by end of this current quarter, that is Q3" FY24. The acquisition completed in January 2024 - Q4 FY24, one quarter later than the target.
38. 20% growth rate - normal-period target Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management said 20% growth in a normal period is "definitely within the realm of what we will target", later framing a minimum 15% annually at Q4 FY24. Actual growth was 7.2% in FY24, 63% in FY25 including acquisitions and 19% organic, and 4% in FY26; Q1 FY27 grew 21%.
39. EBITDA margin improvement - 1%-1.5% over 2-3 years Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management reiterated EBITDA margin improvement of \~1%-1.5% achievable over a two-to-three-year timeframe. Reported financials show OPM moving from 12.18% in FY23 to 10.68% in FY24, 9.60% in FY25 and 8.94% in FY26 - margins declined instead of improving.
40. New capacity revenue - ₹1,400 cr from new capacities in 3-4 years; ₹3,800 cr total by FY26 Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management anticipated \~₹1,400 cr revenue from new capacities over three-to-four years and combined theoretical capacity of ₹3,800 cr by FY26. FY26 total income was ₹4,065 cr, exceeding the ₹3,800 cr figure, though it includes Atraco and Matrix not contemplated in the original framing.
41. Tamil Nadu knits unit - commercial production, ₹350 cr steady-state revenue Partial - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided trial production in Q3 FY24, commercial production "by the end of this financial year," and steady-state top line "at least about ₹350 crores", with commercial production later dated Q2 FY25. Utilization was 20-25% with negative contribution at Q1 FY26 and the ₹350 cr trajectory has not been disclosed.
42. Madhya Pradesh Phase 2 - production in H2 FY25, ₹175 cr revenue at peak Partial - At the Q3 FY23 call, management said MP Phase 2 would match Phase 1's ₹175 cr size with revenue in FY25, later expected "in the later half of FY25". Construction finished in May 2025, 2-3 lines of 1,000 machines were operational by Q4 FY26, and near-full utilization is targeted by Q4 FY27; no revenue contribution disclosed yet.
43. Madhya Pradesh Phase 1 - commercial production Q1 FY24, ₹50-60 cr FY24 revenue, ₹175 cr at full ramp-up Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management expected the MP unit to commence commercial production in Q1 FY24 with ₹175 cr at full ramp-up. Commercial production started June 2023 and full utilization of 1,100 machines was reached by Q2 FY25, one quarter after the Q2 FY25 utilization target.
44. FY23 revenue guidance - ₹2,200 crores Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management firmly reiterated FY23 revenue guidance of ₹2,200 crores - "absolutely yes… definitely we will do that". FY23 consolidated revenue came in at ₹2,222 crores, meeting the stated target.