1. Preferential issue proceeds - utilisation plan Delivered - At the January 2026 announcement, management set a utilisation plan for preferential issue proceeds: ₹90 crore term loan prepayment within 2 months, ₹85 crore working capital within 12 months, ₹337.50 crore general corporate purposes within 24 months, and ₹350 crore vendor payments. By Q1 FY27 net debt was reduced to ₹101.2 crore and the company described itself as "debt free".
2. Peptide CDMO - USD 50 million revenue with 30%+ EBITDA at run rate by mid-third year On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management set a peptide CDMO milestone of USD 50 million revenue with "30% plus EBITDA" at run rate "somewhere in the third year from now, mid of third year from now". Q1 FY27 peptide revenue was CHF0.5 crore, early in the 3-year timeline.
3. Working capital-to-sales - maintain 33% range for FY27 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided to maintain the working capital-to-sales ratio "of 33% range" for FY27. In Q1 FY27, net working capital to sales improved to 29%, versus 30% in Q1 FY26 and Q4 FY26; with three quarters of FY27 remaining, the full-year outcome is not yet settled.
4. FY27 capex - ₹600-odd crore On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided FY27 capex "in the similar range of ₹600-odd crores", reiterated at the Q1 FY27 call. Q1 FY27 capex was ₹89 crore, with the full year not yet complete.
5. Ascelis Peptides - turn profitable in FY27 On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management targeted turning Ascelis Peptides profitable in FY27, later specifying EBITDA positive on full-year basis and PAT positive on annual basis in FY27. Q4 FY26 showed positive EBITDA, but Q1 FY27 carried an EBITDA loss of ₹12 crore.
6. Ascelis - credible mid-size CDMO in 3-5 years On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, management stated Ascelis would be positioned as a credible mid-size CDMO player in novel modalities "over the next three to five years". By Q1 FY27 the peptide CDMO was growing with 3 new customer projects initiated, early in the timeline.
7. Commercial-scale peptide manufacturing facility in India - targeted for completion by end of FY27 Pending - At the Q1 FY26 call, management targeted a commercial-scale peptide manufacturing facility in India for completion by end of the next financial year, FY27. At Q4 FY26 the India peptide API facility was "out by at least a year"; by Q1 FY27 only land at Vizag was earmarked, with no facility completed.
8. Senn Chemicals - breakeven/slight loss for next 1-3 quarters Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected Senn Chemicals' breakeven/slight-loss level to continue "in the next one or two quarters or three quarters". Losses continued through Q3 FY26 (EBITDA loss ₹24.8 crore) before Q4 FY26 turned EBITDA positive.
9. FY26 capex - ₹500-odd crore estimate Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management estimated FY26 capex at "anywhere between INR500-odd crores", revised to \~₹600 crore at Q4 FY25. FY26 capex came in at ₹554.7 crore, within the ₹500-600 crore range.
10. FY26 EBITDA margin - 20-22% range Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management affirmed FY26 EBITDA margin in the "20%, 22% margin range". FY26 EBITDA margin was 22.1%, at the top of the guided range.
11. FY26 revenue growth - something like 20% Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management guided FY26 revenue growth of "something like a 20% growth next year". FY26 revenue was ₹5,365.6 crore, up 20% YoY, meeting the target.
12. EIR from USFDA for Gagillapur - December 2024 Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management expected the EIR from USFDA for Gagillapur in December and a positive outcome, with re-inspection "maybe within a quarter" at Q3 FY25. Gagillapur instead received a warning letter on February 26, 2025; no EIR was received.
13. Remediation/consultant expenses - up to $2 million for FY25 Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management expected remediation and third-party consultant expenses "anywhere up to $2 million for this year"; \~$3 million was incurred in Q3 FY25 alone. FY25 remediation-related expenses totaled close to ₹60 crore, exceeding the $2 million ceiling.
14. North America - grow in excess of 20% (FY25) Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management expected the North America region to grow in excess of 20%. FY25 North America revenue was ₹34,535 Mn, up 16% YoY, below the 20% target.
15. Oncology products - launched from FY26 onwards Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected oncology portfolio products to be launched from FY26 onwards, reiterated at Q1 FY25, then pushed to FY28 onwards at Q4 FY25 and to FY28-29 at Q1 FY27. No oncology launches were disclosed through Q1 FY27, with contribution "fairly minimal".
16. Gross margin - 55-58% sustainable Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management stated gross margin sustainability in the range of 55% to 58%, later revising to \~61.5% sustainable at Q4 FY25. FY25 gross margin was 61.5%, FY26 65.0% and Q1 FY27 65.6%, exceeding the original range.
17. FY25 capex - ₹600 crore overall Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided FY25 capex of ₹600 crore, split ₹200 crore regular and ₹400 crore growth projects, reiterated at Q4 FY24. FY25 capex was ₹570 crore, close to guidance.
18. Vizag Unit-5 - good revenues within a year or so Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, management said Vizag Unit-5 (onco and other APIs) should generate "some good revenues" "maybe within a year or so". The onco block was idle as of Q3 FY24, and no oncology revenue was disclosed through Q1 FY27, with launch timelines pushed to FY28 onwards.
19. Formulations share - beyond 60% over next 2-3 years Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management guided formulations share of sales to go beyond 60% over the next 2-3 years, with \~70% within one year at Q4 FY24. Formulation share was 65% in FY24, 76% in Q1 FY25 and 74% in FY26, exceeding the target.
20. 41 products under development - filed in FY24 and FY25 Missed - At the Q2 FY24 call, management stated all 41 products under development were scheduled to be filed in FY24 and FY25. FY24 saw 10 filings and FY25 saw 19, a total of 29 against the 41 planned.
21. Working capital cycle - dramatically come down, improve over 132 days Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management stated the 170-day working capital cycle would "dramatically come down", improving over last year's 132 days. The cash-to-cash cycle stayed at 170 days in Q1 FY24, 162 in Q2, 162 in Q3 and 161 in Q4 FY24, never improving over 132 days.
22. Genome Valley Phase-1 - completion October 2023, Phase-2 May 2024 Partial - At the Q1 FY24 call, management anticipated Genome Valley Phase-1 completion by October 2023 and Phase-2 by May 2024, with later revisions moving Phase 2 to Q3 FY25 and then Q4 FY25. Phase 1 was completed in October 2023; Phase 2 was commissioned in Q4 FY25, about a year late.
23. FY24 EBITDA margin - sustainable or some improvement on full-year basis Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management expected FY24 to show sustainable or some improvement in EBITDA margins on a full-year basis. FY24 EBITDA margin was 19.0% against FY23's 20.3%, a decline of 130 bps rather than an improvement.
24. Net debt-to-EBITDA - maintain less than 1 Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management committed to maintaining net debt-to-EBITDA of less than 1, reaffirmed at Q4 FY24. The ratio was 0.84 in FY23, 0.98 in FY24 and 0.75 in FY25, 0.34 in FY26 and 0.07 in Q1 FY27, below 1 throughout.
25. FY24 capex - close to ₹700 crore Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, the CFO guided FY24 total capex of close to ₹700 crore, reiterated at Q2 FY24 and revised to around ₹500 crore at Q3 FY24. FY24 capex was ₹382.3 crore, below even the revised ₹500 crore guidance.
26. Virginia packaging facility - full commercialization September 2023 Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management expected full commercialization of the Virginia greenfield packaging facility in September 2023. The facility was commercialized and received FDA approval during FY23, and by Q2 FY24 was fully operational though yet to stabilize.
27. CZRO - all raw materials for paracetamol/metformin by end FY25/early FY26 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management expected to commercially manufacture all raw materials required for paracetamol and metformin by end of FY25 or early FY26, with intermediate milestones for the DCDA pilot and commercial PAP plant. The DCDA pilot commenced in March 2024, but no commercial-scale raw material manufacturing was disclosed, with CZRO going slow.
28. Portfolio shift - new products dominant in 4-5 years On track - At the Q3 FY23 call, management stated a portfolio shift from about two years from now, with a dominant segment of new product portfolio launched in 4-5 years. New products beyond the legacy five contributed 35% of Q1 FY25 revenue versus 25% in FY24 and 15% in FY23, and complex generics reached 50% of FD in Q1 FY27.
29. MUPS block - asset turn of 2.5x "very shortly" Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, management stated the MUPS block, with ₹280-290 crore spent, would see at least 2.5x asset turn "very shortly", later revised to an asset turn of two at Q4 FY23. The block closed FY23 at close to 1 asset turn and utilization was 40-50% at Q4 FY24.
30. Paracetamol business - double-digit growth for next few years Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, management expected the paracetamol business to see double-digit growth for the next few years. Paracetamol API prices fell from ₹600-650 to ₹250-300 and FY25 API revenue declined 37%, with management later saying sales would improve only a little.
31. Green initiative - ₹2,000 crore over 4-5 years, 50% global paracetamol/metformin share Partial - At the Q3 FY23 call, management proposed additional capacities for paracetamol and metformin to meet more than 50% of global requirement, with a ₹2,000 crore green initiative investment over the next 4-5 years, later taking a "very cautious" stage-gate approach. The pilot DCDA plant commenced in March 2024, but only land and pilot costs were incurred by FY25, with paracetamol world market share \~30%.
32. Buyback - ₹250 crore at ₹400 per share Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, the board approved a buyback at ₹400 per share for ₹250 crore. The buyback, including transaction cost, totaled ₹311 crore, exceeding the plan.
33. Long-term debt - no long-term debt in 2-3 years Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, the CMD stated long-term debt was only ₹300 crore and "in 2 to 3 years there'll be no long-term debt". By Q2 FY24, ₹150 crore of \~₹990 crore net debt was long term, and at Q3 FY25 gross debt stood at ₹1,025 crore with long-term loans at 100-150 bps spreads.
34. DCDA project - production in less than 2 years, capacity 8,000 TPA Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided DCDA under PLI with sanctioned capacity of 8,000 TPA, capex "possibly around ₹100 crore" and timelines "less than 2 years from today", later upsizing to 10,000 TPA expanding to 30,000 TPA. The pilot plant commenced in March 2024 but had teething issues, and at Q4 FY26 the pilot stage was still wrapping up with the commercial plant yet to be ordered.
35. FY23 capex - ₹300 crore Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided capex of ₹300 crore for FY23. FY23 capex was ₹410.5 crore, exceeding the ₹300 crore guidance.
36. Net debt - maintain at same level in FY23 Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management intended to maintain net debt at the same level, with a possible slight increase if inventory built, and at Q1 FY23 said net debt "will definitely come down" after capex and buyback. Net debt rose from ₹697 crore in FY22 to ₹767 crore in FY23.
37. Europe launches - five finished dosages in FY23 Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management committed to launching five finished dosages in Europe in FY23, with a paracetamol formulation launch in Q3 in two countries. Paracetamol and metformin formulations were introduced in selected European countries, with paracetamol sold in Hungary, Ireland, Germany and the UK, though no count of five launches was disclosed.
38. US launches - about 12 in FY23, addressable value \~360 crore units Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided about 12 US launches in FY23 with total addressable value of about 360 crore units, later trimmed to two-three pending and "about one to two more launches" in H2 FY23. No disclosure of 12 launches in FY23 appears in the record; FY23 filings included 6 ANDAs.
39. FY23 R&D spend - at least ₹160-165 crore Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided FY23 R&D expenditure of at least ₹160 to around ₹165 crore. FY23 R&D spend was ₹116.4 crore, significantly below the guided range.
40. MUPS formulation plant - Vizag, last quarter of FY22 Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management expected the Vizag MUPS formulation plant to come up in the last quarter of FY22. The MUPS block was commissioned by Q4 FY22 with a couple of products validated and approvals received, and two approved products launched at small scale from another module.
41. Promoter pledging - extinguish itself in 1-2 quarters Partial - At the Q4 FY21 call, management stated promoter pledging was expected to "extinguish itself" in the next 1 or 2 quarters, with total release promised "shortly" at Q3 FY24. Pledging had reduced from 38% to \~3.8% of overall shareholding by Q4 FY21, but no disclosure of full extinguishment appears in the record.
42. FY22 gross margin - around 52% (possibly 51%) Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management guided FY22 gross margin around 52%, possibly 51%, down from 57% in FY21. FY22 gross margin contracted 7% from FY21, implying approximately 50%, close to the guided level.
43. R&D spend - minimum ₹150 crore every year going forward Partial - At the Q4 FY21 call, management committed to R&D spend of a minimum ₹150 crore every year going forward, with later refinements to ₹160-165 crore for FY23, \~4.5% of sales and 5.5-6% of sales by Q1 FY27. R&D was ₹143 crore in FY22 and ₹116.4 crore in FY23, then ₹198.6 crore in FY24, ₹238 crore in FY25 and ₹285.3 crore in FY26, meeting the minimum from FY24 onwards.
44. Capex funded from internal accruals - no debt needed Missed - At the Q4 FY21 call, management expressed confidence that all capex would be met from internal accruals: "I don't see the need for any debt going forward", later softening to "will not take huge debt" and "mostly through internal accruals". Net debt rose from ₹575 crore in FY21 to ₹697 crore in FY22, ₹767 crore in FY23 and ₹842 crore in FY24.
45. Capex - ₹1,000 crore over 3 years (FY22-FY24) Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management set a capex plan of ₹1,000 crore over the next 3 years, with ₹400 crore in FY22 and the remaining ₹600 crore spread over FY23 and FY24, with FY24 spend later guided to ₹700 crore then revised to ₹500 crore. Actual capex was ₹397 crore in FY22, ₹410.5 crore in FY23 and ₹382.3 crore in FY24, totaling approximately ₹1,190 crore.
46. 3-year revenue CAGR - 20-25% Missed - At the Q4 FY21 call, management reiterated a 3-year CAGR of 20%-25% as "very confident", later pointing to a long-run "definitely around 20% plus". Revenue moved from ₹3,237 crore in FY21 to ₹4,512 crore in FY23, a CAGR of approximately 18%, and FY24 was flat at ₹4,506 crore.
47. 3-year PAT CAGR (FY21-FY23) - 20-25% Missed - At the Q4 FY21 call, management reaffirmed a 3-year FY21-FY23 PAT CAGR of 20% to 25% as "very confident". PAT was ₹549 crore in FY21 and ₹517 crore in FY23, a negative CAGR over the period.
48. FY22 revenue growth - 15-20% over FY21 Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management guided FY22 revenue growth of about 15% to 20% over FY21, withdrawing the guidance at Q2 FY22 due to a volatile environment. FY22 revenue was ₹3,765 crore against ₹3,237 crore in FY21, growth of 16.3%, within the guided range.
49. FY22 EBITDA margin - around 20%, longer-term 25-26% Partial - At the Q4 FY21 call, management guided FY22 EBITDA margin around 20%, with a longer-term outlook of 25-26% and FY23/FY24 close to 25%, withdrawing guidance at Q2 FY22 and later settling on a sustainable \~22-23%. FY22 EBITDA margin was 19.2%, FY24 19.0%, FY26 22.1% and Q1 FY27 22.9%; the 25-26% aspiration was never achieved.