1. Plywood H2 FY26 core EBITDA margin - 10% plus conditional on 15%+ H2 growth Partial - At the Q2 FY26 call, management said if plywood growth exceeds 15% for H2, internal working points to a 10% plus H2 margin. Q4 FY26 plywood core EBITDA margin reached 10.4% on 15.6% YoY volume growth, but Q3 was 8.4%, leaving H2 blended below the 10% plus level.
2. MDF Q4 FY26 margin - 16% plus Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management committed that MDF would be back to 16% plus margin from Q4 FY26. Q4 FY26 MDF EBITDA margin was 17.0%, exceeding the 16% plus target.
3. MDF Q4 FY26 volume growth - double-digit Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided double-digit volume growth in H2 FY26 across both plywood and MDF segments. MDF volume grew 14.5% YoY in Q3 FY26 and 45.3% YoY in Q4 FY26, both double-digit.
4. Plywood Q4 FY26 volume growth - double-digit Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided double-digit volume growth in H2 FY26 across plywood and MDF. Plywood volume grew 12.5% YoY in Q3 FY26 and 15.6% YoY in Q4 FY26, both double-digit.
5. MDF FY27 revenue growth - 20% plus in Q4 FY26 Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management expected MDF sales growth of more than 20% year-on-year in Q4 FY26, supported by improved margins. Q4 FY26 MDF revenue was Rs 189.4 cr, up 39.6% YoY, exceeding the target.
6. Plywood ContiRoll technology - 2 more facilities in H1 FY27 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management said the ContiRoll technology change will be implemented in the remaining 2 of 4 facilities during the year, and at Q1 FY27 guided two more during H1 with P&L gains from Q4 onwards. Two factories are fully implemented; the H1 FY27 horizon is not yet reached.
7. MDF second line capex split - Rs 300 cr FY27, Rs 125 cr FY28 Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided the Rs 425 cr MDF capex split at almost close to Rs 300 cr in FY27 and Rs 125 cr in FY28. Only \~Rs 10 cr had been paid as advances to the main equipment supplier as of Q4 FY26; the split horizon is not yet reached.
8. FY27 capex - \~Rs 500 cr total Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided FY27 capex of \~47 cr in GIL, \~100 cr in GSPL and \~300 cr in GSPPL, approximately 500 cr total, after affirming a roughly Rs 480 cr tally at Q4 FY26. Q1 FY27 capex spend is not explicitly disclosed and the FY27 horizon is not yet reached.
9. FY27 peak debt - Rs 710-730 cr, D/E 0.75x On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided peak debt of "anything between 710 to 725, 730" with D/E of 0.75x at FY27 end, then below 0.7 within six months, after a Q4 FY26 guide of a 0.7-0.72 peak for about a year. Q1 FY27 net debt was Rs 533 cr with D/E of 0.57x, below the guided peak.
10. Net debt reduction - Rs 100-120 cr in FY26 Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided debt reduction of around Rs 100-120 cr by end of FY26, and Rs 100-150 cr the following year. FY26 net debt was Rs 461 cr versus Rs 464 cr in FY25, a reduction of only \~Rs 3 cr, though net debt-to-equity of 0.52x sat within the guided 0.5-0.6 range.
11. Net debt peak - Rs 750 cr guided peak Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management guided remaining below the indicated maximum net debt of Rs 750 cr even after investing in the furniture hardware JV, later targeting a cut from Rs 500 cr to Rs 450 cr by FY24 year end. Net debt was Rs 732 cr in Q3 FY24, Rs 502 cr in Q4 FY24, Rs 464 cr at FY25 end and Rs 461 cr at FY26 end - the Rs 750 cr peak was never breached.
12. HDF flooring line - commercial production Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, the HDF flooring line was slated for completion in Q3 FY25, then delayed to May '25, December 2025, March '26 and finally early Q2 FY27 with peak top line of about Rs 70-75 cr. Commercial production commenced on 20 July 2026, within the revised early Q2 FY27 timeline.
13. Odisha plywood plant - 1.35 cr sqm, Rs 130 cr, commercial production FY27 On track - At the Q3 FY25 call, management announced Rs 134 cr capex adding 1.35 cr sqm of plywood capacity with trial runs end of Q4 FY26 and commercial production from FY27, later moved to Q4 FY27 and a \~Rs 130 cr cost. Rs 25-30 cr was invested by Q3 FY26 with all major orders placed, and the project remained on track at Q1 FY27; the FY27 commissioning horizon is not yet reached.
14. MDF second line - 700 CBM/day, Rs 400 cr, commercial operations Q2 FY28 On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, the Board approved Rs 400 cr (Rs 425 cr incl. GST) for a second 700 CBM/day MDF line at Vadodara with Rs 600 cr revenue potential, commercial operations in the next 18 months, i.e. Q2 FY28. Civil construction was underway with machinery ordered by Q4 FY26 and projects remained on track at Q1 FY27; the Q2 FY28 horizon is not yet reached.
15. Furniture fittings JV - breakeven by FY26, then profit Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected the JV to be at breakeven or profitable at PAT level in FY26, later pushed to FY27 PBT breakeven, then FY28 profit, then mid-year FY27/FY28. FY26 Samet JV PAT loss was Rs 50.8 cr (100% basis) and Q1 FY27 loss was Rs 11.48 cr; the JV remains loss-making.
16. Furniture fittings JV (Samet) - Rs 300 cr revenue in 3-4 years, 20%+ EBITDA Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management announced the Samet JV targeting \~Rs 300 cr revenue in 3-4 operational years with 20% plus EBITDA margins, revised at Q1 FY25 to Rs 250-300 cr by FY27, then Rs 400-500 cr best-case, before FY27 guidance was cut to Rs 100 cr and then 120-150 cr. FY26 Samet JV revenue was Rs 44.27 cr (100% basis) and Q1 FY27 revenue Rs 13.61 cr, with Greenply's share of loss at Rs 25.4 cr and Rs 5.74 cr respectively.
17. Plywood FY27 EBITDA margin - 10% plus On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management said if the volume guidance is achieved, "then we will 100% hit the plywood margins", and at Q1 FY27 reiterated 10% plus as "very easily achievable" once quarterly revenue reaches \~600 cr-plus. Q1 FY27 plywood core EBITDA margin was 8.4%, up 50 bps YoY; the full-year horizon is not yet reached.
18. MDF FY27 EBITDA margin - 16-17% sustainable On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management said 17% MDF margins are sustainable, and at Q1 FY27 the CFO guided "around the 16% to 17% on a sustainable basis", with MDF margins of 16%+ to be sustained throughout FY27. Q1 FY27 MDF EBITDA margin was 17.3%, within the range; the full-year horizon is not yet reached.
19. MDF FY27 volume growth - 25-30% On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided 25% to 30% MDF volume growth for FY27, expressing confidence "in delivering" it, and reiterated at Q1 FY27. Q1 FY27 MDF volume growth was 24.7% YoY, at the lower end of the range; the full-year horizon is not yet reached.
20. Plywood FY27 volume growth - 10% On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management set a 10% volume growth target for plywood for FY27, reiterated with confidence at Q1 FY27. Q1 FY27 plywood volume growth was 13.8% YoY, ahead of the 10% full-year target; the horizon is not yet reached.
21. Plywood FY26 EBITDA margin - 10% plus Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management set an FY26 plywood EBITDA margin target of 10%+, softened at Q2 FY26 - "we don't want to promise 10%" - with full-year guided at \~8.5% and 10% plus conditional on H2 growth exceeding 15%. FY26 plywood core EBITDA margin was 8.8%, slightly above the revised \~8.5% guidance but below 10%; Q4 FY26 reached 10.4%.
22. Plywood FY26 volume growth - 10% (later held/softened) Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management set a double-digit FY26 consolidated revenue growth aim contributed equally by plywood and MDF; at Q1 FY26 double-digit plywood volume growth "looks difficult", and full-year growth was guided at \~6.5% to 7% at Q2 FY26. FY26 plywood volume growth was 8.3%, above the revised guidance but below the original double-digit target.
23. Plywood FY25 EBITDA margin - 10% target Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected plywood margins to improve by "50 to 75 basis points if not more" in FY25, later guided flattish, with a desire to reach back to 10% and an expectation of crossing 10% core EBITDA in Q4 FY25. FY25 plywood core EBITDA margin was 8.5% and Q4 FY25 was 9.2% - neither crossed 10%.
24. Plywood FY25 volume growth - 8-10% Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management set an FY25 plywood volume growth internal target of 8% to 10%, reiterated through Q2 FY25, then softened at Q3 FY25 to "anywhere around 7% plus". FY25 plywood volume growth was 5.5%, below both the original range and the revised 7% plus.
25. Plywood FY24 volume growth - 8-10% Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management reiterated FY24 plywood volume growth of 8% to 10%, "fairly confident" after \~7% H1 growth, and maintained it at Q3 FY24. FY24 plywood volume growth was 8.6%, within the guided range.
26. MDF FY26 volume growth - 10% plus / higher double-digit Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided MDF growth of "10% plus for the full year" (conservative) with higher double-digit targeted in H2, refined to higher double-digit at Q2 FY26 and double-digit H2 at Q3 FY26. FY26 MDF volume was 2,03,772 CBM, up 21.1% YoY, with Q4 FY26 up 45.3%.
27. MDF capacity expansion - 800 to 1,000 CBM/day Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided \~40 cr of FY25 MDF capex to extend the line from 800 CBM to 1,000 CBM, moved at Q1 FY26 to August 2025 with capex of Rs 10-12 cr. The expansion to 1,000 CBM per day was completed during Q2 FY26, a 25% capacity increase, effective 28 December 2025.
28. MDF FY26 EBITDA margin - 16% plus Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management set an FY26 MDF EBITDA margin target of 16%+, with full-year later guided at \~14.5% to 15% at Q2 FY26 and a Q4 FY26 commitment to be back to 16% plus. FY26 MDF EBITDA margin was 13.4%, below both targets, though Q4 FY26 reached 17.0%.
29. MDF FY25 EBITDA margin - 16% plus Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 MDF margin "in the range of 15% to 16%" full-year annualized, reiterated as "around 16%" and 16% plus, then cut at Q3 FY25 to 13-14% on raw material costs and an unplanned shutdown. FY25 MDF EBITDA margin was 13.4%, achieving the revised range but missing the original 16% plus.
30. MDF FY25 volume - 200,000 CBM internal target Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management set an FY25 internal target of 200,000 CBM, with 50% plus sales growth guidance reiterated through Q3 FY25. FY25 MDF volume was 1,68,264 CBM, up 34.9% YoY, below both the 200,000 CBM target and the 50% growth target; revenue of Rs 530.2 cr grew 44.2%.
31. MDF FY24 EBITDA breakeven - Q2 FY24 target Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management targeted MDF EBITDA breakeven in Q2 FY24 - "Hopefully, yes, that's the target definitely". Q2 FY24 MDF EBITDA margin was 15.5% with cash-positive performance "much ahead of our original plans", followed by positive operating cash flow and net-zero PBT in Q3 FY24 and positive PAT in Q4 FY24.
32. MDF FY24 revenue - Rs 275-300 cr / 1 lakh CBM Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management reset the MDF FY24 target to \~100,000 CBM ("1 lakh CBM") with revenue "anywhere around 275 to 300" crores, with confidence reiterated through Q3 FY24. FY24 MDF volume was 1,24,772 CBM, 25% above the guided 1,00,000 CBM, with revenue of Rs 365 cr exceeding the target.
33. MDF plant full capacity utilization by FY26 Partial - At the Q1 FY22 call, management planned to run the MDF plant at full capacity by FY2026, with ramp-up guidance subsequently revised at 40-55% for FY24 and 75-80% for FY25. FY24 utilization was 62% annualized, FY25 was 74% and FY26 was 74% considering the 45-day shutdown; Q1 FY26 management cited almost 90% on the current mix.
34. MDF plant payback - \~7 years, ROCE 18-19% On track - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided MDF plant payback at "anything around 7 years" with ROCE of around 18% to 19% post-tax, later restated at 5-6 years pre-tax and a 17-18% medium/long-term ROCE target at Q1 FY27. FY26 MDF ROCE was \~8% and no explicit payback outcome is disclosed; the horizon, roughly FY29, is not yet reached.
35. MDF plant Vadodara - 800 CBM/day, COD Q4 FY23 Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management announced the 800 CBM/day MDF plant at \~Rs 548 cr to be operational by Q4 FY23, later clarified as trial runs with commercial production from Q1 FY24, then targeted from mid-May 2023. Commercial production commenced 5 May 2023 in a record 15 months; FY24 volume of 1,24,772 CBM exceeded the guided 1,00,000 CBM.
36. Sandila (Lucknow) greenfield plywood plant - commercial production by March 2022 Partial - At the Q4 FY21 call, management said the Lucknow plant should be operational by March 2022 generating \~Rs 250 cr revenue at full capacity, pushed at Q3 FY22 to commercial operations in Q1 FY23 after trial runs in March 2022. Sandila achieved commercial production in Q2 FY23, with utilization at 15-17% in Q2 FY23 rising to almost 60% by Q4 FY23.
37. Consolidated debt-free by FY23 - negligible debt Missed - At the Q1 FY21 call, management guided the company to be debt-free or at "very negligible debt" by FY23 end, later targeting consolidated net debt-free by FY23, before the guidance became a FY23 peak of Rs 600-625 cr net debt tied to the MDF plant. FY23 year-end consolidated net debt was Rs 632 cr with net debt-equity within 1 as guided.
38. 400 bps margin improvement by FY23 - from FY20 base Missed - At the Q1 FY21 call, management's internal vision was to grow margins by at least 400 bps by FY23, later framed as a 13%-14% EBITDA margin by FY23 and then restricted to Q4 FY23, before being effectively softened at Q3 FY22 amid raw-material volatility. FY23 adjusted core EBITDA margin was 10.4%, only \~40 bps above FY20 levels and short of 13%-14%.
39. FY21 double-digit operating margin - full year Delivered - At the Q1 FY21 call, management said despite the pandemic it would "try to manage our margin of last year" (FY20 \~10-11%) and protect double-digit margins on decent sales, reiterated as full-year margin "somewhere around 10%" and a double-digit target at Q3 FY21. Q4 FY21 consolidated operating margin was 12.5% versus 9.1% YoY, with standalone EBITDA margin \~13%, and management noted the margin improvement was "one of our promises made to the investor community".
40. Gabon peak revenue - Rs 320-330 cr, pushed out \~12 months Missed - At the Q1 FY21 call, management said the Gabon facility's peak revenue of Rs 320-330 cr is not at risk, with growth behind by \~12 months but "the numbers will very much happen", later guided to Rs 150-160 cr for FY22 and raised to "up to 350 to 375 crores" potential at Q1 FY23. FY22 Gabon business was \~Rs 230 cr including face value used domestically; the European energy crisis hit FY23, and the 51% majority stake was given away in Q3 FY24 with deconsolidation from Q4 FY24, ending at 19% and \~Rs 2.8 cr carrying value - the peak-revenue target was never achieved before divestment.