• CAS impact: Market volumes fell somewhere around 20%, and Groww saw a similar decline; the 14% sequential drop in equity derivatives revenue was largely attributed to CAS, which affected two months of the quarter. Bansal expects activity to return to a normal scenario within a few weeks once a circular delinks derivatives settlement prices from CAS.
• MTF and adjacencies: MTF penetration is less than 1% of active users, while Groww’s market share is 2.7% against a fair share beyond 10%, leaving room to grow. Commodity derivatives, PMS and AIFs, and bonds are intended to meet more customer needs and increase Groww’s share of customers’ wallets.
• AMC breakeven: AMC AUM largely comes from outside Groww’s platform, and SSGA is expected to help expand institutional offerings and global products. The business is growing more than 100% year-on-year; breakeven may come closer to ₹25 to ₹30,000 crore of AUM.
• Revenue outlook: Sequential performance is difficult to predict because derivatives revenue is highly sensitive to volatility; a CAS benefit could be offset by lower volatility. Bansal expects MTF and wealth to keep growing sequentially and said year-on-year market-share gains can help offset volatility changes.