1. FY27 capex of ₹450-500 cr Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided FY27 capex of ₹450-500 cr. At the Q1 FY27 call this was moderated to ₹350-400 cr on an annualized basis; no Q1 FY27 capex actual is disclosed in our record, and FY26 capex was ₹460 cr.
2. FY27 EBITDA margin broadly in line with FY26 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management expected FY27 EBITDA margins broadly in line with FY26 levels, later adding "potential for further improvement" and confidence in 30%+. Q1 FY27 EBITDA margin was 31.3%, up \~275 bps YoY and the fourth straight quarter above 30%, versus FY26's 30.4%.
3. FY27 volume growth in high teens On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided late-teen volume growth for FY27, retained as "high teen" at Q1 FY27 with performance expected above it. Q1 FY27 finished goods volumes grew 23.1% YoY and revenue 27.0% YoY.
4. US tariff costs not borne by the company Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management said terms are not DDP, so OEMs would bear any 25-26% tariff on auto components. Q1 FY26 confirmed no tariff cost was passed on or absorbed, as Incoterms are CIF; by Q3 FY26 duties were mostly paid by customers.
5. European farm equipment order of ₹50-60 cr per annum Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management said HFL had won almost ₹250 cr of business with one of Europe's largest farm equipment OEMs, close to ₹50-60 cr per annum, with development started. The first farm export order being executed is close to ₹50 cr per annum, and Q1 FY27 farm equipment was 32% of revenue growing in the mid-20s.
6. 3-year revenue mix of 50% CV+Farm, 50% rest On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management expected a 3-year mix of roughly 50% CV and Farm and 50% PV, Industrial, Off-Highway and other once capex is done. Q1 FY27 mix was CV 33% and Farm 32% (65% combined) versus FY26's 69%.
7. Forging utilization up 18-20% Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management saw the possibility to increase forging utilization by almost 18-20% from around 59% by tonnage. Utilization stayed at 59% in FY26 and again in Q1 FY27.
8. Machining utilization back to 84-85% Partial - At the Q1 FY26 call, management expected machining utilization to improve back to 84-85% as new projects ramp up, from 77% then. Utilization reached 82% in FY26 and stood at 78% in Q1 FY27.
9. Genset crankshaft ramp-up from Q3 FY25 Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management said genset crankshaft approvals were received with capacity and ramp-up starting from Q3 FY25, later pushing other genset customers to Q4 FY25 and H2 FY26. Genset business started and picked up, with ₹80 cr done in H1 FY26 and U.S. industrial gensets ramping with full-year visibility.
10. Ring rolling/ring forging entry for bearing industry Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management said it would enter ring rolling/ring forging with capacities already ordered, targeting the bearing industry; at Q4 FY25 the ring mill was to arrive in Q2 and be in production in Q3 FY26. That deadline has lapsed with no disclosure of commissioning or bearing-business entry through Q1 FY27.
11. IPO proceeds for equipment, debt repayment and GCP Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, unspent IPO proceeds were to fund forging and machining capacity additions largely during FY24-25, alongside objects of ₹171.126 cr equipment, ₹152.760 cr debt prepayment and ₹53.937 cr GCP. By Q3 FY24, \~₹153 cr went to debt repayment, \~₹171 cr was allocated to equipment and ₹28 cr of GCP used, with no cost revisions in later monitoring reports.
12. Dividends of ₹4, ₹3 and ₹4 per share for FY24-FY26 Delivered - The Board recommended a final dividend of ₹4 per share for FY24, ₹3 per share for FY25 and ₹4 per share for FY26. All three were declared as recommended, the FY26 dividend at the 47th AGM.
13. 18,000-ton vertical upsetter trials from Q3 FY27 Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said the 18,000-ton vertical upsetter line, already under commissioning, would start trials from Q3 onwards with capacity additions from Q4 of FY27. The line remains under commissioning as of Q1 FY27, with no outcome evidence yet.
14. Price revisions of 3.5-4% from April 2026 Delivered - At the Q4 FY26 call, management expected around 3.5% to 4% selling price increases from 1st April, with full P&L reflection from Q2 FY27. Q1 FY27 took \~2% on the \~₹100-crore domestic business with \~30% of the benefit realized, and realizations per kg improved 3.2% to ₹253/kg.
15. Data center/heavy engine order book of ₹250 cr from Q3 FY28 Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management disclosed a ₹250 cr data center/heavy engine order book to start executing from Q3 FY28, with contribution meaningful from FY29. The order book is secured at ₹250 cr, including a \~₹180 cr annual full machine order, but no revenue actuals yet.
16. Incremental order book of ₹950 cr peak annual revenue over 2-3 years On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management had visibility of \~₹800 cr of new peak annual business from FY27 onwards, raised to ₹950 cr at Q4 FY26. The order book stands at nearly ₹950 cr, \~60% exports with realizations of ₹340-350/kg versus ₹240-245/kg current, but no revenue actuals yet.
17. Machining capacity of 82,000 tons by end FY27 On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided machining capacity around 82,000 tons by end FY27 and around 90,000 tons by FY28, later moderating FY28 to 87,000 tons. Q1 FY27 machining capacity reached 75,200 metric tons after adding 7,200 MT in the quarter, from 68,000 MT in FY26.
18. Forging capacity of 150,000 tons by end FY27 On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided forging capacity of 150,000 tons by end FY27 and around 180,000 tons by FY28, raised at Q4 FY26 to 161,000 and 187,000 tons. Q1 FY27 forging capacity reached 152,000 metric tons, above the original target, after ramping from 125,000 to 147,000 tons in FY26.
19. Crankshaft contribution to 58-60% by FY28-29 Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management expected crankshaft contribution to improve to 58%-60% by FY28-29 from \~50% in FY25 and FY26. Crankshaft contribution was nearly 50% and flattish in both years, and Q1 FY27 notes do not disclose an updated share.
20. Farm equipment market share improvement expected in FY27 Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management said it was working on new programs and expected some improvement in farm equipment market share this year, supported by new crank shaft machining line capacity. Q1 FY27 farm equipment was 32% of revenue with mid-20s growth, but no updated market share figure is disclosed.
21. CV market share from 32% to 42% on MHCV side Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management expected CV market share to go from 32% to 42% on the MHCV side, with CV alone growing almost 35%-40% in FY27 on new programs. Q1 FY27 domestic CV grew \~18% while CV exports de-grew \~12%, and no updated market share figure is disclosed.
22. US direct and indirect business to 15-16% of revenue Pending - At the Q3 FY26 call, management expected U.S. direct and indirect business, then 7%-8% of revenue, to inch up to 15%-16% on a medium-term basis. Around 10% of direct or indirect U.S. business fell 35%-40% in Q2 FY26, and no updated US-specific share is disclosed through Q1 FY27.
23. North America PV export program ramp-up from Q4 FY26/Q1 FY27 Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management flagged a PV export project for North America starting from Q4 and Q1 of the next financial year, later moving the large part of business to Q2 FY27 onwards. Q1 FY27 PV export revenue more than doubled as secured export orders began executing, with PV at \~8% of revenues.
24. Defence segment clarity in 2-3 quarters Partial - At the Q1 FY25 call, management expected more clarity on the defence segment in the next two or three quarters. By Q1 FY26 all initial approvals were received and tenders quoted, but no defence order win or revenue is disclosed through Q1 FY27.
25. Jammu machining subsidiary with ₹200 cr capex Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management planned around ₹200 cr of J&K subsidiary capex in two phases, with building and plant expected completed within the financial year. By Q4 FY25 the project was on hold pending government policy clearance, with only ₹50 lakhs spent and land procurement not started.
26. ROCE/ROE improvement Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management expected return ratios of ROCE 20.6% and ROE 16.3% in H1 FY25 to improve as capital is deployed and utilization improves, reiterated at Q2 FY26. ROCE declined to 16.78% and ROE to 14.17% in FY26, from 17.67% and 14.46% in FY25.
27. Machining mix of 85-90%, later 89-90% Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided machining mix range bound 85% to 90% that year, narrowed at Q2 FY25 to 89%-90%. Machining mix was 87% in Q1 FY25, 89% in FY26 and 90% in Q1 FY27, within the target throughout.
28. Realization improvement of ₹4-5 per kg every year Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected to add ₹4 to 5 per kg in realization every year, reiterated as year-on-year improvement at Q4 FY25 and Q3 FY26. FY25 realization rose to ₹248/kg, up ₹5/kg adjusted, but FY26 was broadly stable at ₹245/kg before Q1 FY27 improved to ₹253/kg.
29. Volume growth of 10-12% for next 2 years Pending - At the Q3 FY25 call, management expected 10% to 12% volume growth for the next 2 years with better realization growth, later guiding to late-teen volume growth for FY27. FY26 finished goods volume grew 10.9% and Q1 FY27 volumes 23.1% YoY, after FY25's 2.8%; with FY27 ending March 2027 and only Q1 reported, the full-period outcome is not yet assessable.
30. EBITDA margin range, latest 28-32% Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management expected EBITDA margins in a range of 27%-29%, raised at Q3 FY26 to 29%-31% and then 28%-32%, with 30%+ confidence at Q1 FY27. Margins ran 29.2% in Q2 FY25 through 31.5% in Q4 FY26 and 31.3% in Q1 FY27, four consecutive quarters above 30%.
31. Captive solar plant, 25 MW later 35 MW On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, management expected the 25 MW solar CPP project to commence by Q1 FY27, later pushed to generation from Q4 FY27 with on-stream hope from January. Capacity was enhanced by 10 MW to 35 MW with total outlay up to ₹170 cr, 80 acres on long-term lease signed, but no commissioning confirmation yet.
32. ₹145 cr industrial genset order ramp-up from Q2 FY26 Partial - At the Q1 FY26 call, management expected the ₹145 cr North American industrial genset order to start ramping in Q2 FY26, reaching \~50% utilization by Q3 and full utilization from Q4 FY26. Testing was almost over and the line ready in Q1 FY26, and by Q3 FY26 U.S. industrial gensets were ramping with full-year visibility, but the utilization milestones are not explicitly confirmed.
33. E-Axle program ramp-up from Q4 FY25 Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected the export E-Axle program ramp-up, a seven-year North American program, to start from the last quarter of FY25. Deliveries of e-axle components commenced during Q3 FY25, starting in December, and are ramping as per plan.
34. PV order wins of ₹170 cr+ per annum by FY27 On track - In the Q4 FY24 PPT, recent PV order wins gave revenue visibility of \~₹170 cr+ p.a. by FY27 on fully ramped volumes, spanning crankshaft, brake flange and E-axle orders. PV contributed 8% of Q1 FY27 revenue with over 70% YoY growth, and market share with one large customer improved from 32% to 47%, but no explicit ₹170 cr+ figure is disclosed.
35. New orders of ₹1,600 cr over 5-8 years, ₹250 cr annual peak Pending - At the Q4 FY25 call, management announced new orders exceeding ₹1,600 crores across passenger vehicle and industrial segments for execution over the next 5 to 8 years, with ₹250 crores annual peak revenue potential. Later notes track a separate ₹950 cr incremental order book, with no explicit progress disclosure on the ₹1,600 cr book.
36. ₹650 cr heavyweight components capex with production from FY27 On track - At the Q3 FY25 call, management announced ₹650 crore capex for heavyweight component forging over 2-3 years with production expected in FY27, later pushed to revenues from Q3 FY28 and meaningful contribution from FY29. Equipment installation is on schedule for end FY27 with trials by then, backed by \~₹180 cr of signed heavy engineering orders including a \~₹180 cr annual data center order.
37. Capex of ₹200-250 cr per annum for FY25 and FY26 Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management saw capex of almost ₹200 crores annualized, set at ₹200-250 crores per annum for FY25 and FY26 at Q2 FY25, before FY26 was raised to ₹400-500 crores. FY26 capex deployed was around ₹460 crores, within the raised range, with ₹300 crores in the first 9 months.
38. Wind sector at 8-10% of revenue in 2 years Pending - At the Q2 FY25 call, management expected wind sector business, then \~7% of revenue, to reach 8%-10% of revenues over the next 2 years while growing 20%-25%. Wind contributed almost 50% of the industrial segment in FY25, implying \~7% of total, and no wind-specific share is disclosed in later notes.
39. Industrial segment share to 18-20%, later 30-31% On track - At the Q2 FY25 call, management expected the industrial segment, then \~12%-13%, to reach 18%-20% in 2-3 years, raised at Q4 FY26 to around 30%-31% going forward. Industrial share moved from 14% in FY26 to 16% in Q1 FY27 with \~50% YoY revenue growth, still below the 18-20% target.
40. 14,000-ton press utilization to 75-80% Partial - At the Q3 FY24 call, management planned to lift 14,000-ton press utilization from \~40% to 75%-80% optimum in 15 to 18 months, later moderating to \~70% and raising back to 75%. Utilization progressed from \~57%-58% in Q3 FY25 to almost 65-70% in Q1 FY27, short of the target.
41. Export share of 30-35% in 3-4 years On track - At the Q3 FY24 call, management expected exports to grow to around 30%-35% of revenue in 3 to 4 years from \~20-21%, with a near-term 28%-30% target at Q4 FY24. Q1 FY27 export share reached 28% of revenue including deemed and indirect, versus 15% direct in FY26.
42. Machining capacity to \~62,000 tons by end FY25 Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, the company committed to add 11,000 tons of machining capacity in FY25, reaching \~62,000 tonnes by end FY25, reiterated through Q3 FY25. Capacity reached 57,000 tons by H1 FY25 and 68,000 MT by Q3 FY26, indicating the 62,000-ton target was achieved late.
43. 4,000-ton press line commissioning for PV Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management planned a 4,000-tonne press line for North America PV requirements with 8-10 months lead time, later pushed to H1 FY27 and then Q1 FY27. During Q1 FY27 the company commissioned another 4,000-ton forging press line, taking total forging capacity to 1,52,000 metric tons.
44. 10,000-ton press line arrival and commissioning Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management said a further \~10,000-ton press line was ordered to arrive at the end of the next financial year and be up and running in FY26, adding almost 20,000 tons of annual capacity. A new 10,000-ton forging line was commissioned during Q4 FY26, as forging capacity ramped from 125,000 to 147,000 tons in FY26.
45. 6,300-ton press line commissioning and ramp-up Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, the 6,300-ton press line, delayed \~1.5-2 months by the Red Sea crisis, was expected May-June, adding nearly 10,000-12,000 tons of annual capacity. Production on the newly installed 6,300-ton press commenced during Q2 FY25, expanding forging capacity to 1,27,000 metric tons.
46. Passenger vehicle segment at 8-10% of revenue On track - At the Q3 FY24 call, management expected 5%-6% of revenues from the new PV/SUV segment in FY25 and 8%-10% within 2 years, a target reiterated through Q2 FY26 before being raised to 12%-15% at Q1 FY27. PV share moved from 4% in FY25 to 6% in FY26 and 8% in Q1 FY27, with revenue up over 70% YoY.