1. Aditya smelter expansion - Phase 1 (181 KT) has over 90% purchase orders placed, with first pots expected December 2027 and meaningful contribution in FY29. This ₹21,000-crore expansion lifts total upstream capacity to 1.5 million tonnes, adding roughly 30% to current smelting capacity.
2. Aditya alumina refinery - The 850 KT Kansariguda refinery is 95% order-placed, commissioning mid-FY28, and will leave Hindalco net long of alumina by about 800 KT. External alumina sales of \~190 KT next quarter at $330-340 prices add a new revenue stream while feeding captive smelters at cost.
3. Novelis Bay Minette - The 600 KT Alabama rolling mill is commissioning, with commercial shipments expected Q1 FY28 and full ramp in 18-24 months. Management guides EBITDA above $1,000 per tonne on this facility, with 420 KT of beverage packaging output fully contracted.
4. Novelis cost savings - Run-rate savings reached $225 million, against a $350-400 million target by FY28 exit. Each incremental $100 million at \~4.5 million tonnes of shipments adds roughly $22 per tonne toward the unchanged $600 EBITDA-per-tonne long-term guide.
5. Copper smelter expansion - The 300 KT Dahej smelter, over 25% order-placed, targets commissioning FY28-29 and takes total upstream copper capacity to \~800 KT. This underpins the stated goal of becoming the world's second-largest copper player outside China, with 85% of concentrate requirements already blocked in.
6. India downstream 4x by FY30 - Management targets ₹14,500-15,000 crore of India downstream EBITDA by FY30, four times FY24 levels, with Q1 FY27 already at $303 per tonne EBITDA. The 170 KT Aditya FRP plant is ramping and battery foil is commissioned, adding the capacity to deliver that growth.
7. Captive coal mines - Chakla (H1 FY27) and Bandha (FY27) are on track, with Chakla expected to produce \~1 million tonnes in FY28 and Meenakshi (FY29) at a sub-1 strip ratio. Management says the combined impact on aluminium making cost will be "fairly attractive" - coal is typically 25-30% of smelting cost.
8. Copper and e-waste recycling - The 50 KT Pakhajan plant commissions in August 2026, scaling to 200 KT, with IRR in the high teens. It adds a second copper feed source beyond concentrate, which is 85% contracted, and positions Hindalco for India's growing scrap supply.
9. Renewable energy build-out - Capacity exits FY27 at 884 MW, up from 470 MW, including 65 MW of operational round-the-clock renewable at Aditya. This supports the 30% renewable target by 2030 and locks in lower power costs for the smelter expansion.
10. Novelis Oswego recovery - The hot mill restarted in June 2026 and is ramping toward normal levels, with most of the fire-related headwind recovered next fiscal year. The $140 million net cash impact is largely behind, and the restart removes the \~72 KT quarterly shipment drag that hit Q3-Q4 FY26.