• Aluminium price dynamics: A supply deficit of about 3 million tons from Gulf states has elevated aluminium prices to $3,600–$3,700 per ton. Management expects this firm pricing environment to drive Q1 FY27 margins and profitability above Q4 levels.
• Novelis operational outlook: The Oswego facility is scheduled to restart in the first week of June, with the Bay Minette project expected to commission in the October–December quarter. These milestones are projected to drive a strong FY27 PAT recovery from the $15–$20 million level back toward normal ranges of $400–$500 million.
• Capex and leverage: Hindalco India has planned a ₹12,000 crore capex while maintaining a zero net debt to EBITDA level. Consolidated net debt to EBITDA exited FY26 at 1.83x and is expected to hold near that range in FY27 before Novelis debt begins declining in Q4.
• Odisha expansion timelines: The Aditya Refinery is scheduled for commissioning in October 2027, followed by the 180-pot Phase 1 Aditya smelter expansion in December 2027. The second phase expansion of 180 KT is targeted for commissioning in December 2028.