• Crude volatility: Prices have moved in a $90 to $110 range, with occasional moves outside it, amid Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz tensions, Red Sea attacks, a Gulf of Mexico hurricane threat, and uncertainty over Iran.
• Pump prices: The government has kept MS/HSD pump prices fixed apart from an increase of 7 and 1/2 rupees some time back and an excise-duty cut. Surana said prices were unlikely to change in the immediate future unless crude rose above $120, given inflation and the impact on consumers.
• Procurement costs: Insurance, freight, connected salaries and other costs account for 27% of crude cost, according to Dubey. He said continued uncertainty could keep crude prices in their current range even as supply through the Strait of Hormuz approaches pre-war levels.
• Import dependence: With 89 to 90% of crude imported, India has limited choice over sourcing and little bargaining strength on price. Diversifying sources helps secure supply, but procurement costs depend on global conditions.
• Refining margins: Dubey said asking refineries to double LPG production and reduce petrochemical production can hurt profitability by disrupting optimal product mix and efficiency. He expects uncertainty to keep pressure on refining margins.