1. IPO proceeds - utilization per prospectus objects Delivered - The IPO prospectus allocated net proceeds of ₹2,251.60 crore across four objects: ₹500 crore for loan repayment, ₹1,350 crore for working capital, ₹400 crore for product development and ₹1.60 crore for general corporate purposes, over FY23-FY25. Monitoring reports (May 2024, Jan 2025, May 2025) confirmed all four objects completed "On Schedule", and the FY26 Annual Report reported full utilisation of the ₹2,251.60 crore as of March 31, 2026 - nil unutilised.
2. FY27 blended gross margin - 50% to 55% On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management reiterated its blended gross margin guidance of "50%-55% odd number" for the year, saying "we do not expect that number to be shifting on an overall basis". Q1 FY27 gross margin was 49.0%, just below the range; the FY27 horizon is not yet reached as of Sep 2026.
3. FY27 blended EBITDA margin - 50% to 55% On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, CFO Vipul Joshi guided to a blended EBITDA margin of "roughly about 50% to 55%" for FY27, his "hope for the year", reiterated by Rahul Singh as "between 50% to 55% as a blended for the year". Q1 FY27 EBITDA margin was 6.2%; the FY27 horizon is not yet reached as of Sep 2026.
4. FY27 opening order book (\~₹310 crore) - execute within first 3 quarters of FY27 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management committed that the \~₹310 crore opening order book will convert into revenue within the first 3 quarters of FY27, Ankit Mehta saying "No, no. This is expected to be executed within this year". At Q1 FY27, more than 20% of the opening order book was delivered, leaving \~₹256.8 crore for completion by Q3 FY27.
5. Q4 FY26 - deliver 40-45% of open order book and turn profitable Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided to delivering around 40% to 45% of the open order book in Q4 FY26 with margins "healthier than all our previous quarters" and "turning profitable", plus a "full year's gross margin trajectory of 50% plus for FY26". Q4 FY26 delivered around 40% of the open order book - "we delivered on that intent" - with revenue of ₹141 crore, gross margin 67.6%, EBITDA margin 52.6% and PAT of ₹60 crore; FY26 gross margin was 58.0%.
6. Civil/GIS mapping segment - ₹100 crore business in 2-3 years Pending - At the Q2 FY26 call, management said the civil/GIS mapping segment "has the potential to grow in size to that level", i.e. a ₹100 crore business in 2-3 years. The window from Sep 2025 runs to Sep 2027-2028; Q1 FY27 mix was 60% defence / 40% civil and FY26 was 69/31, with no specific civil/GIS revenue figure disclosed.
7. Order book (\~₹230-240 crore) - executable within 12 months, majority in FY26 Partial - At the Q2 FY26 call, management affirmed the \~₹230-240 crore order book is executable within 12 months, the majority "will actually have to be done in this year itself" - a firm "yes, yes, absolutely". FY26 revenue was ₹226 crore, close to that level, but the \~₹310 crore opening order book for FY27 indicates the majority-execution commitment was not clearly met.
8. Gross margin - H2 FY26 to stay similar to Q2 FY26 (\~50%) Missed - At the Q2 FY26 call, CFO Vipul Joshi projected gross margins would "stay in the similar lines as it is this quarter" (\~50%) through H2 FY26, "this will stay as what it is in this quarter". Q3 FY26 gross margin came in at 23.7-24%, far below the projection; Q4 FY26 recovered to 67.6% and FY26 closed at 58.0%.
9. EP-5 order (₹137 crore) - delivery within 12 months, large part in FY26 On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, management said the ₹137 crore EP-5 order carries a 12-month delivery timeline in 3-4 deliveries, hoping "to make the timelines better than the 12 months" and "to build a large part of this within this financial year". Around 40% of the Q3 FY26 open order book was executed in Q4 FY26 for revenue of ₹141 crore, with the remaining order book carried into FY27's \~₹310 crore opening book.
10. FY25 order book - exit order book reflecting growth potential Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management planned to close more opportunities than will be executed in FY25, leaving an exit order book at year end "reflective of potential growth" in the subsequent year. Order book as of 31st March 2025 stood at approximately ₹14 crore, down sharply from ₹125 crore at 31st March 2024.
11. GalaxEye SAR collaboration - ₹250 crore revenue opportunity in 2-3 years On track - At the Q1 FY25 call, management stated the GalaxEye SAR collaboration represented a revenue opportunity "close to about INR 250 odd crores" over the "next two to three years". Flight testing was ongoing as of Q4 FY25 and the joint SAR payload was in final stages of prototyping as of Q1 FY26, with no collaboration revenue disclosed through Q1 FY27.
12. Revenue mix - defence/civil \~70/30 over next 3-5 years On track - At the Q1 FY25 call, management expected the defence/civil revenue mix to remain similar to that quarter's \~70%/30% over the next 3 to 5 years. FY26 mix was 69% defence / 31% civil, close to the expectation, though Q1 FY27 showed 60% defence / 40% civil; the window runs to Jun 2027-2029.
13. Next-gen platforms (hybrid VTOL and quadcopter) - launch later in 2024 Partial - At the Q1 FY25 call, management said next-gen platforms in the hybrid VTOL and quadcopter categories would be launched "later this year" (2024). Q6 V3 launched in the US in Q3 FY25, while NETRA 5 and SWITCH V2 were launched at Aero India 2025 in February 2025 - a 1-2 quarter slip.
14. FY25 margins - track similar to FY24 Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided that FY25 margins would "closely track similar margins as our last year's numbers" on a blended basis. FY25 gross margin was 33.0% vs 49.9% in FY24, EBITDA margin -19.6% vs 27.4%, and PAT margin -38.6% vs 14.4%.
15. FY25 revenue - grow / at least flattish with slight growth Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management confirmed they "do plan to grow in this year as well" (FY25), reiterated at Q1 FY25. Revisions followed: at Q3 FY25 management confirmed "there will be a revision overall" to the earlier "at least flattish and a slight growth versus FY24" guidance. FY25 revenue was ₹161 crore, down 48.7% from ₹314 crore in FY24.
16. Middle-mile logistics UAV (YETI) - prototype flying Partial - At the Q2 FY24 call, prototypes of the new platforms' base designs were expected by around mid of next year; at Q2 FY25 the engineering prototype was to fly in Q3 FY25. Revisions followed - at Q3 FY26 the propulsion testing version was "going to fly within the first half of this year". By Q1 FY27, YETI completed its first technical demonstrator milestone, a tethered hover test, with a ₹151 crore TDB LoI received; significantly late but progressing.
17. Tactical UAV (ZOLT) - demonstration within calendar 2024 Partial - At the Q3 FY24 call, management committed to demonstrating MAKE II tactical platforms "within this year itself, this calendar year itself" (2024). ZOLT concept was launched at Aero India 2025 in February 2025 with prototypes flying - a 1-2 quarter slip - followed by ₹100 crore-plus procurement orders in Q3 FY26 and series production by Q1 FY27.
18. Sustainable EBITDA margin - 25% to 30% Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, management stated the sustainable EBITDA margin expectation: "we should hover anywhere between 25% to 30%", reiterated at Q2 FY25 for FY25-26. FY25 EBITDA margin was -19.6% and FY26 was 12.0%, both far below the range, despite Q4 FY26 at 52.6%.
19. Drone-as-a-Service - double-digit cumulative revenue in 3-5 years On track - At the Q3 FY24 call, management targeted the Drone-as-a-Service bucket to get "into double digit numbers cumulatively" over the "next three to five years"; at Q2 FY25, DaaS was to exceed ₹1 crore in FY25 with FY26 "a meaningful year". The window runs to Dec 2026-2028; no cumulative double-digit crore DaaS revenue is disclosed as of Q1 FY27.
20. No capex investment - current capacity sufficient Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management said no capex investment is envisaged even if order sizes change, current capacity being single-shift with room for two further shifts; reiterated at Q3 FY24: "maximizing our current infrastructure before we venture into any CAPEX investments". CWIP rose from ₹24.92 crore (FY23) to ₹110 crore (FY26), but management clarified the \~₹55-60 crore expansion is product development only, reaffirmed at Q1 FY27 with no factory setup planned.
21. Exports/US - meaningful contribution from FY25 onwards Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management said "next year onwards we should start seeing relatively more meaningful results/contributions" from exports/US, guided at Q2 FY24 to meaningful international contribution in FY25 and FY26. FY25 saw no meaningful contribution, with international opportunities having "did not materialize as expected"; the first US order (Lamar Police Department) came only in Q4 FY26 as an "early pilot order".
22. Working capital cycle - \~200 days target Partial - At the Q1 FY24 call, the CFO reiterated a target range of \~200 days working capital cycle, "right now, we are hovering closer to that number". Q1 FY24's inventory cycle fell from 205 days at March closing to 85 days, but by Q4 FY25 elevated net working capital was attributed mainly to lower top line, with no FY-end cycle figure disclosed for FY24 or FY25.
23. FY24 revenue - grow meaningfully / better growth than FY23 Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management repeatedly committed to "grow meaningfully" in FY24, and at Q2 FY24 confirmed growth would be better than FY23: "Yes, absolutely. That is definitely our target". FY24 revenue was ₹314 crore, up 68.8% from ₹186 crore in FY23, which management scorekept as "substantial growth, delivered".
24. L1 pipeline (\~₹50 crore-plus) - close very soon and execute within 12 months Partial - At the Q1 FY24 call, management said the L1 pipeline (₹50 crore-plus) was "expected to close very soon" with 12-month execution from order receipt. It instead grew to ₹300+ crore by Q4 FY24 and ₹400+ crore by Q3 FY25, with conversions pushed to FY26-FY27; substantial conversion did occur, with FY26 order inflow of \~₹530 crore including the ₹137 crore EP-5 order.