1. Fund raise of Rs. 7,500 crore to be concluded in next few months Delivered - In an April 2025 announcement, the Board approved a fund raise of Rs. 7,500 crore via preferential allotment, expected to be concluded in the next few months. The Rs. 7,500 crore raise was completed in FY2026, with the CCPS converted into equity during Q3 FY26.
2. Wind down infrastructure loans to NIL within five years Partial - Merger-era guidance committed to winding down loans to infrastructure to NIL within five years, from Rs. 22,710 crore as of 31 December 2018. The book fell to Rs. 2,830 cr (Mar-24), Rs. 2,348 cr (Mar-25), Rs. 2,029 cr (Mar-26) and Rs. 1,950 cr (Jun-26) - a \~91% reduction, but not NIL.
3. Grow retail loan assets to over Rs. 100,000 crore in 5 years Delivered - Merger-era guidance targeted growing retail loan assets from Rs. 36,236 crore (December 31, 2018) to over Rs. 100,000 crore in the next 5 years. Retail, Rural & SME Finance (net of IBPC) stood at Rs. 1,66,604 Cr at Mar-24, exceeding the target.
4. FY27 cost-to-income below 70% On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, the CFO said the endeavour is to bring cost-to-income below 70% during the course of FY27, from 70.7% in Q1. Q1 FY27 cost-to-income was 70.7%; the FY27 target is not yet due and Q1 is close to it.
5. 1% ROA - kissing distance On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, the CEO/CFO declined to guide to a number, saying "kissing distance"; at Q1 FY27 the CEO upgraded this, expecting 1% ROA for the full year FY27 itself. Q1 FY27 ROA was 1.06%; the FY27 target is not yet due and Q1 is above 1%.
6. FY27 credit cost of 170-180 bps revised downward to 150-160 bps On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, the CFO guided FY27 credit cost "in the range of 170 to 180 basis points"; at Q1 FY27 this was revised downward to 150-160 bps. Q1 FY27 credit cost was 1.53% (153 bps); the FY27 target is not yet due and Q1 is within the revised range.
7. PAT YoY growth from Q2 FY26 onwards Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, Vaidyanathan said "we do not expect a Y-o-Y growth on PAT at least not in Q1. And then for Q2 onwards, hopefully, we should start delivering Y-o-Y growth meaningfully". Q1 FY26 PAT fell 29.44% YoY to Rs. 453 cr, then Q2 rose 64.10% (Rs. 348 cr), Q3 40.71% (Rs. 479 cr) and Q4 11.85% (Rs. 331 cr).
8. ROA of 1% by Q4 FY26 Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, Vaidyanathan said "trying to get there by the end of this year, fourth quarter" for 1% ROA; at Q2 FY26 he walked it back ("I'm not sure we can exactly pin 0.9% or 0.1%") and at Q4 FY26 said "kissing distance". Q4 FY26 ROA was 0.33% reported, 0.77% normalized ex-fraud; the target was later reset to 1% for full year FY27.
9. Fees to grow at 14-15% into next year Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, Jain said "we feel that we should be able to grow fees at around 14% to 15% even into the next year". FY26 fee income grew 14.7%, meeting the 14-15% target.
10. MFI book proportion to come down to 3-3.5% next year Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, Jain said "the MFI proportion may come down to about 3% to 3.5% into the next year". The MFI share of funded assets fell from 4.0% (Mar-25) to 3.3% (Jun-25), 2.7% (Sep-25), 2.4% (Dec-25), 2.3% (Mar-26) and 2.2% (Jun-26), meeting and exceeding the target.
11. FY26 credit cost of \~1.85-1.90% Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, Vaidyanathan framed FY26 credit cost "somewhere in the zone of about 1.85%, 1.90%"; this was revised to about 2%, 2.05% at Q1 FY26, \~2.05%, 2.1% at Q2 FY26 and about 210 bps at Q3 FY26. FY26 credit cost was 2.13% - above the original range, approximately in line with the revised one.
12. CGFMU claims to start from FY27 with \~70% recoup Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, the CFO stated CGFMU claims on the insured MFI book would start from FY27, with recoup of credit losses "as high as about 70%"; at Q4 FY26 he expected "a reasonable recovery" next year without quantifying. A CGFMU claim of INR514.8 crores was received in Q1 FY27 against the MFI portfolio.
13. Deposits to grow by 22-25% next year Missed - At the Q3 FY25 call, management guided deposits will grow "by maybe 22%, 23%" and "deposit will probably grow by maybe 24%, 25% next year"; at Q4 FY25 this was set at "22%, 23%" for FY26. FY26 customer deposits grew 17.3%, below the guided range.
14. FY25-FY26 income growth of \~14-14.5% Missed - At the Q3 FY25 call, management guided FY25-FY26 income growth of "maybe like the 14% or 14.5%"; at Q4 FY26 next-year top line growth was guided at "about 18% to 18.5%". FY26 top line grew just 11.2%, below the 14-14.5% target.
15. FY25-FY26 opex growth not more than \~13% Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management guided FY25-FY26 opex growth will not be more than "about maybe 13-odd percent", down from 18% currently; this was refined to "12% to 13%" at Q4 FY25 and about 11% to 12% at Q1 FY26. FY26 opex growth was 12.3% ex-fraud, meeting the \~13% target.
16. No capital raise contemplated Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management said with CET-1 at 14% and CRAR 16.6%, "we are comfortable. We are not thinking of, even internally, we are not talking capital at this point of time". At Q4 FY25 the Board approved CCPS issuance of \~Rs. 7,500 crores, and the raise was approved in April 2025 and completed in FY26 - the stance reversed within two quarters.
17. Operating profit to increase \~24-25% in FY25 Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management expected operating profit to increase \~24-25% this year (FY25). FY25 core operating profit grew 17.2%, and PPOP including trading gains grew 18.9%, below the guided range.
18. H1 FY25 profits slightly lower, H2 much better Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided H1 profits slightly lower due to the JLG impact and H2 profit much better, with Q3 "should be okay" and Q4 "will look good". FY25 quarterly PAT was Q1 Rs. 643 cr, Q2 Rs. 212 cr, Q3 Rs. 340 cr, Q4 Rs. 296 cr; H2 PAT of Rs. 636 cr was lower than H1's Rs. 855 cr.
19. ROA flat in FY25, \~1.2% next year, 1.4% by FY27 Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided ROA flat this year over FY24, \~1.2% next year, and 1.4% by FY27; this was later reset to 1% by Q4 FY26, walked back at Q2 FY26, and upgraded to 1% for full year FY27. ROA was 1.10% (FY24), 0.48% (FY25), 0.57% ex-fraud (FY26) and 1.06% (Q1 FY27) - the FY25 and FY26 targets were missed.
20. Infrastructure book to \~1% of funded assets by end of FY25 Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided the infrastructure book to come down to around 1% of total funded assets by end of the year, from 1.3%. The book was sub-1% of funded assets at Mar-25, meeting the target.
21. Credit card cost-to-income to 75% by FY27 On track - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided credit card cost-to-income to 75% by FY27, from 116% in FY24, reiterated in the Q4 FY25 and Q1 FY26 PPTs; at Q2 FY26 this became "to 75%, we believe, in the next 2 years", and the Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27 PPTs reset it to mid-sixties over 4-5 years. Credit card cost-to-income fell from 116% (FY24) to 100% (FY25), 95.4% (FY26) and 83.6% (Q1 FY27) - the FY27 target is not yet due and Q1 is close.
22. Retail liabilities cost-to-income to 140% by FY27 On track - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided retail liabilities cost-to-income to 140% by FY27, from 193% now; the Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27 PPTs extended the goal to 100% over the next 4-5 years, with FY27 projected at 140%. The ratio fell from 193% (Q1 FY25) to 171.1% (FY25), 146.1% (FY26) and 148.1% (Q1 FY27) - the FY27 target is not yet due and the current level is close.
23. Assets-business cost-to-income below 50% between FY24-FY27 Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided assets-business cost-to-income to comfortably come below 50% between 2024-25-26-27, from 53.2% in FY24, \~1% a year; the Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27 PPTs reset this to around 50% over the next 4-5 years. The ratio rose from 53.2% (FY24) to 56.1% (FY25), 59.2% (FY26) and 57.7% (Q1 FY27), moving away from the target.
24. CD ratio to \~92%/93% by end of FY25 and 80s next year Partial - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided the credit-deposit ratio to \~92%/93% by end of the year and to the 80s next year; this was softened at Q4 FY25 to "late 80s", at Q1 FY26 to "80% maybe early 90s" and at Q2 FY26 to "mid-80s". The CD ratio moved from 98.1% (Jun-24) to 93.9% (Mar-25) - nearly the 92-93% target - but was 96.4% (Mar-26) and 95.5% (Jun-26), still not in the 80s.
25. JLG (microfinance) credit cost of \~5% for FY25 Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management estimated JLG (microfinance) credit cost for this year at around 5% or a little short of it; at Q2 FY25 H1 microfinance credit cost was \~6% annualized. Full-year FY25 MFI credit cost came in at 10.5%, more than double the estimate.
26. FY25 credit cost of \~1.85% including JLG impact Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided FY25 credit cost of \~1.85% including the JLG impact, with the ex-JLG core book continuing at 1.65%; at Q2 FY25 this was revised upward to \~225 bps. FY25 credit cost was 2.46%, exceeding both the original and revised guidance.
27. Bank-level credit cost of 1.6% (Guidance 2.0 assumption) Partial - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided bank-level credit cost of 1.6% as a Guidance 2.0 assumption for the upcoming five years; subsequent annual guidance ran higher - FY25 revised to \~225 bps, FY26 to about 210 bps - before FY27 was guided at 170-180 bps and revised down to 150-160 bps. Credit cost was 1.28% (FY24), 2.46% (FY25), 2.13% (FY26) and 1.53% (Q1 FY27) - breached in FY25 and FY26, back below 1.6% in Q1 FY27.
28. CD ratio below 100% by end of FY24 Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided the CD ratio to fall below 100% "maybe by the end of the year" (FY24). The CD ratio was 98.1% at Jun-24, below 100%, achieving the target.
29. Opex FY25 to increase \~20% while income/loan book rises 24-25% Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided FY25 opex to increase by about 20% while income/loan book could rise by 24%-25%, with "material opening of the jaw" from Q3, Q4 of FY25; the FY24 Annual Report expected opex growth of 19-20% and income growth of about 23-24%. FY25 opex grew 16.5% and core operating income grew 16.7%, below both guided ranges, and the jaw did not open as guided.
30. Guidance 2.0 - ROE 17-18% by FY29 On track - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided ROE of "somewhere in the zone of 17%-18%, give or take" in phase two; later framing moved to a progression from 10% upward and "Our first stop is to actually move this from 7% to 15%". ROE was 10.30% (FY24), 4.27% (FY25), 4.87% ex-fraud (FY26) and 8.98% (Q1 FY27) - the FY29 target is not yet due, with the near-term goal reset to 15%.
31. Guidance 2.0 - ROA 1.9-2.0% and PAT Rs. 12,000-13,000 cr by FY29 On track - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided the bank is "comfortably moving towards" ROA of 1.9% to 2.0%, implying PAT of about Rs. 12,000-13,000 crores in March 2029; at Q2 FY25 the model was called "directionally very much valid" but too early to re-number, and at Q3 FY25 the timeline softened to "whether you can reach there in 2030, or FY31 or FY32". ROA was 1.10% (FY24), 0.48% (FY25), 0.57% ex-fraud (FY26) and 1.06% (Q1 FY27), with PAT of Rs. 2,957 cr, Rs. 1,525 cr, Rs. 1,636 cr and Rs. 1,075 cr respectively - the FY29 targets are not yet due and current levels are well below the required trajectory.
32. Guidance 2.0 - GNPA 1.5% and NNPA 0.4% by FY29 On track - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided gross NPA of 1.5% and net NPA of 0.4% by FY29. GNPA improved from 2.04% (Dec-23) to 1.87% (Mar-25), 1.61% (Mar-26) and 1.51% (Jun-26), and NNPA from 0.68% to 0.53%, 0.48% and 0.44% over the same dates - the FY29 targets are not yet due and actuals are already near them.
33. Guidance 2.0 - assets Rs. 5,00,000 cr and total assets Rs. 7,00,000 cr by FY29 On track - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided assets of Rs. 5,00,000 crores in March 31, 2029, from Rs. 1.89 lakh crore (a 20.3% five-year CAGR), with a Rs. 5,00,000 crores loans book taking total assets to about Rs. 7,00,000 crores; the Rs. 5 lakh crore loan book was reiterated at Q3 FY25. Loans grew from Rs. 1,89,475 cr (Dec-23) to Rs. 2,41,926 cr (Mar-25), Rs. 2,90,278 cr (Mar-26) and Rs. 3,05,370 cr (Jun-26), with total assets at Rs. 4,20,810 cr (Jun-26) - the FY29 targets are not yet due and the run-rate is consistent.
34. Guidance 2.0 - deposits Rs. 5,85,000 cr by FY29 On track - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided deposits of \~Rs. 5,85,000 crores as of March 31, 2029, from Rs. 1,76,000 crores at Dec 31, 2023, assuming only 24.8% CAGR; this was reiterated as Rs. 6,00,000 crores at Q2 FY25 and as INR 6 lakh crores over the next 4-5 years at Q3 FY26. Customer deposits grew from Rs. 1,76,481 cr (Dec-23) to Rs. 2,42,543 cr (Mar-25), Rs. 2,84,453 cr (Mar-26) and Rs. 2,99,405 cr (Jun-26) - the FY29 target is not yet due and the run-rate is consistent.
35. 99.5% collection efficiency standard Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management committed to the 99.5% collection efficiency standard: "we don't think we will drop the standards of 99.5% collection". Collection efficiency held at 99.5% through Q3 FY25, dipped to 99.2% in Q4 FY25 (99.4% ex-Karnataka), then recovered to 99.5-99.6% ex-MFI through Q1 FY27.
36. Capital raise of Rs. 4,000 crores within 1 year Partial - At the Q3 FY23 call, management reiterated the capital raise plan of Rs. 4,000 crores to be raised within the next 1 year; at Q3 FY24 the bank said on Tier 1 capital, "We will watch the numbers... and then make up our mind". Rs. 3,000 crores was raised via QIP in October 2023 and Rs. 3,200 crores in July 2024 - the Rs. 4,000 crore target was not met within the window, though meaningful capital was raised.
37. Branch additions of \~150 per year Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided branch additions of about 150 per year going forward, later widened at Q1 FY24 to "could be 150, could be 200" and reset at Q1 FY25 to 10% annual growth, with "about 75 to 100 branches into next year" at Q3 FY25. Branch count grew from 707 (Dec-22) to 955 (Jun-24), 1,002 (Mar-25), 1,147 (Mar-26) and 1,155 (Jun-26), consistent with the 10% annual target.
38. High-cost legacy borrowings run-down over 2-3 years Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management expected high-cost legacy borrowings (\~Rs. 22,000 crore at \~8.75% blended cost) to be replaced at 5%-5.5% cost, falling off within next 3 to 4 years; at Q3 FY23 the residual Rs. 18,762 crores was to run down over two to three years, with the stock tracked down to INR2,200 crores by Q1 FY26. Legacy Long Term & Infrastructure Bonds fell from Rs. 26,819 Cr (Dec-18) to Rs. 11,809 cr (Mar-24), Rs. 4,800 cr (Mar-25), Rs. 2,200 cr (Jun-25) and nil by Mar-26, completing the run-down within the original outer bound.
39. Core operating profit to rise \~45% in FY23 and \~45% into FY24 Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided core operating profit (NII + fees − OPEX, ex-treasury) to rise by another \~45% in FY23, with internal modeling suggesting a further \~45% rise into FY24; at Q2 FY23 FY23 PPOP was framed at about Rs. 4,200 crore, \~50% over last year. FY23 core operating profit grew 67% YoY, exceeding the target, while FY24 growth was 31% YoY, below the \~45% target.
40. Reverse merger with IDFC Limited Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management confirmed intention to take the merger process forward but declined to give any timeline; applications were filed with RBI, SEBI, NSE and BSE by Q2 FY24, and at Q1 FY25 management guided the reverse merger as a Q2 item, hopeful of conclusion by end of September, with net worth accrual of Rs. 500-600 crores. The merger was effective in the first week of October 2024, with networth accretion of \~Rs. 618 crores at September end and \~24 bps capital adequacy benefit in Q3.
41. Portfolio-mix caps - no business >15%, mortgages/LAP \~20% each, corporate \~30% Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management set portfolio-mix caps: no business to exceed 15% of the total book, except mortgages and loan against property capped at \~20% each, and corporate/wholesale with an upper cap of \~30%. At Q1 FY27 the mix was mortgage-backed 27%, vehicle 11%, rural 6%, MSME 8%, other retail 27%, wholesale 21% - wholesale is within its cap, but mortgage-backed at 27% exceeds the \~20% cap.
42. Current account proportion of CASA from 18% to 30% Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, the CFO said the endeavour is to take the current account proportion of CASA from 18% to 30% "in due course, like other good banks"; the numeric target was later dropped ("we haven't put a number to it") with the bank at \~15% of CASA at Q1 FY26. The CA share moved from 18.29% (Mar '22) to \~15% (Q1 FY26), \~14% (Q2 FY26) and \~7-7.5% of CASA (Q3 FY26), declining rather than rising toward 30%.
43. NIM maintained around 6% Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management said NIM over 2-3 years should stay "in the 6ish league"; at Q1 FY23 the CFO said "we will be fairly comfortable in terms of maintaining NIM around the 6% mark", and at Q2 FY23 guided "5.8, 5.9, 6 in that zone", with later updates ranging from \~5.8% by Q4 FY26 to 5.75% for FY27 and closer to 5.8% at Q1 FY27. NIM ran from 5.89% (Q1 FY23) through a peak of 6.42% (Q3 FY24), a dip to 5.59% (Q2 FY26) and recovery to 5.96% (Q1 FY27), broadly around 6% throughout.
44. Credit card business - breakeven by FY25, profitable FY26, PAT of Rs. 500-600 cr in 3-4 years On track - At the Q4 FY22 call, management said the credit card business, which lost \~Rs. 320 crores in FY22, would see the gap fall to \~Rs. 100 crores next year, break even the year after, and reach PAT of not less than Rs. 500-600 crores in maybe 3-4 years; breakeven by FY25 was reiterated at Q4 FY23 ("Take 25 and you can hold us to it"), Q2 FY24 and Q3 FY24, with the PAT goal later moved to FY29/FY30 and "FY27, it should be like in the money". Credit card cost-to-income fell from 240% (FY22) to 116% (FY24), 100% (FY25), 95.4% (FY26) and 83.6% (Q1 FY27), with operational breakeven achieved within 4 years of launch; the Rs. 500-600 cr PAT is not yet reached.
45. Cost-to-income ratio to 50% / 65% by FY25 / FY27 Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management said the bank's cost-to-income ratio will come down to 50% - "it's only a matter of time"; at Q2 FY23 the 65% by end of FY25 target was reiterated, at Q1 FY25 it became 65% by FY27, and the FY24 Annual Report planned an \~800 bps reduction from 72.9% to 65% by FY27. Cost-to-income was 72.54% (FY23), 72.9% (FY24), 71.8% (FY25), 73.5% (FY26) and 70.7% (Q1 FY27); the Q4 FY26 PPT formally acknowledged the FY27 miss and reset the goal to \~55% over 4-5 years.
46. Double-digit ROE by Q4 FY23 Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, the CEO said the bank should reach double-digit ROE "by fourth quarter of next year" (Q4 FY23), calling it "an assured thing" at Q1 FY23 and confirming 10% core annualized ROE ex-treasury by Q3 FY23 at Q2 FY23; the merger-time 13%-15% FY25 ROE guidance was reiterated at Q3 FY23 and Q4 FY23 before being acknowledged as "difficult" at Q1 FY25. Double-digit ROE was reached in Q2 FY23 (10.13%) and Q3 FY23 (10.72%), ahead of target, but FY25 ROE fell to 4.27% against the 13-15% goal, recovering to 8.98% by Q1 FY27.
47. Credit cost of 1.5% for FY23 Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided credit cost of 1.5% for FY23, reiterated at Q1 FY23 as less than 1.5% of funded assets, "we feel we'll meet that very comfortably"; at Q3 FY23 the corridor was seen at \~1.2-1.3%. FY23 credit cost was 1.16%, "much lower than our earlier guidance of 1.5%", beating the ceiling.
48. CASA ratio sustained at \~50% Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided that the CASA ratio will be sustained at \~50% next year, with CASA growing "a little bit fast[er]" than the loan book, reiterated at Q2 FY23 as confidence to sustain CASA of 51%/50% and at Q4 FY25 as "we think we'll maintain it". CASA was 50.04% at Jun-22 and \~50% at Mar-23, dipped to the mid-40s through FY24-FY25 (46.4% at Sep-23, \~47% at Mar-25), then returned to 50.1% (Sep-25), 51.6% (Dec-25) and 50.8% (Jun-26).
49. Retail gross NPA to 2% and retail net NPA to 1% Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management reiterated its earlier guidance that retail gross NPA will come down to 2% and retail net NPA to 1%, with internal estimates to go below 1% "rather comfortably", reiterated at Q1 FY23 as retail NPA below 2%; later self-imposed constraints were GNPA "around 1.7%-ish" and NNPA "around 0.4%, 0.5%". Retail GNPA improved from 2.63% (Mar '22) to 1.65% (Mar '23) and 1.38% (Mar '24), and retail, rural and MSME GNPA was 1.40% with NNPA 0.52% at Q1 FY27 - the 2%/1% target was achieved by FY23 and sustained since.
50. Loan book growth - 20-25% sustainable from FY22 Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided overall loan book growth of 20%-25% going forward, breaking out of the 6% CAGR of FY19-FY22 - on a book of Rs. 1,22,000 crores this implied \~Rs. 20,000-30,000 crores of loan growth a year; at Q3 FY24 growth was expected to moderate to 20%-22% by FY25, and \~20-odd percent was reiterated through Q4 FY25, Q2 FY26 and Q3 FY26. Funded assets grew 25% in FY23, 25% in FY24, 20.4% in FY25, 20.0% in FY26 and 20.6% YoY in Q1 FY27, crossing Rs. 3 lakh crores in Q1 FY27 - within or near the guided band every year.