1. Working capital back to earlier level Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management stated the working capital increase was temporary and they would work to reduce it back to the earlier level. In FY26, working capital stood at ₹604.4 cr vs ₹528.3 cr in FY25; Q4 FY26 did show a YoY reduction in the working capital cycle.
2. Europe demand improvement within next one or two quarters Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, management suggested Europe's major problems were over and demand would improve "in may be next one or two quarters". Q4 FY23 Europe remained weak with CIS completely shut, and by Q1 FY24 recovery was still only hoped for in H2 FY24.
3. No significant EBITDA change despite Europe/America inflation Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management said they did not see EBITDA changing too much despite high inflation in European and American markets, having achieved price increases. Q3 FY23 Europe reported a loss; Q4 FY23 overseas subsidiaries' EBITDA was \~₹32 cr with PAT \~₹18 cr.
4. European businesses reasonably good in next quarter Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management expected European businesses' results to be slightly below but still reasonably good in the next quarter. In Q3 FY23, Europe segment EBIT margin went to about -2%, a \~₹1 cr loss.
5. Hofmann growth using Czech Republic plant Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management expected Hofmann to see future growth, using the Czech Republic plant for additional capacity. At the Q3 FY24 call, Hoffman Ceramics Czech Republic operations were planned to be closed and transferred to German operations.
6. Export proportion \~55-60% of standalone going forward Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management expected the standalone export proportion to stay about the same at \~55-60% going forward. Export share fell to 33% in FY24, 28% in FY25 and 22% in FY26.
7. India business 10-15% growth, FY24 horizon Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided India business growth of "around 10% to 15%". Per the Q4 FY25 call, domestic revenue grew 20% year-on-year to ₹721 cr in FY25, with domestic share rising from 67% of standalone revenue in FY24.
8. Acquisitions - one in US and one in India, movement within the year Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said one acquisition was being looked at in the United States and one potential target in India, and were "very hopeful that we see some movement on these within this financial year"; the search was still under review at Q2 FY25 and "definitely on the card" at Q3 FY25. No acquisition was announced through Q1 FY27.
9. Sheffield Refractories synergies and India product transfer Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management hoped the Sheffield acquisition would improve UK margins and bring synergies from bringing Sheffield products to India; at Q3 FY24, a first technology-transfer project was expected in 12-18 months. Sheffield performed strongly in FY25 and FY26, transfer Phase 1 completed with Phase 2 progressing, and plastic ramming mass production began at Vizag.
10. Arasu Shanmugam steps down as MD, remains consultant; Bajoria becomes MD Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, Arasu Shanmugam was to step down as MD at close of 28 February 2026 and cease as Director from 1 March 2026, with Mihir Prakash Bajoria appointed MD for three years and Arasu remaining a consultant. The Q4 FY26 call confirmed the leadership changes, with Mukesh Rawal moving to Director and CEO India Operations and Manoj Rakhecha named CEO International Operations.
11. Mukesh Rawal Director & CEO India from 16 August 2026 Delivered - At the Q4 FY26 call, Mukesh Rawal was to hold office of Director and Chief Executive Officer on and from 16 August 2026, subject to approvals, restated in the Q1 FY27 PPT. He ceased as President - Mono Ceramics Inc. from close of 15 August 2026 and took the Director & CEO - India role from 16 August 2026, with Ashok Kumar Kedia and Frank Mitchell promoted Co-Presidents of MCI.
12. Vizag total revenue ₹180 cr in FY25 Partial - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided total Vizag revenue of around ₹180 cr in FY25, \~₹100 cr addition over the remaining 9 months. By Q3 FY25, the FY25 Vizag figure was stated as ₹160 cr, up from \~₹72 cr in FY24, with more than ₹220 cr expected in FY26.
13. Export growth at least 4-5% every year Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided export sales growing at least 4-5% every year, compensating European weakness with markets like Turkey and UAE. FY25 exports declined 6% to ₹277 cr and FY26 exports fell 11% to ₹245 cr; Q1 FY27 exports grew 9% YoY.
14. Hofmann maintains FY21 profitability momentum Missed - At the Q4 FY21 call, management said the target for Hofmann was to maintain FY21's profitability momentum. Hofmann was "well down in sales and profitability" by Q4 FY24, Germany was the most impacted operation in Q4 FY25, with losses "reducing significantly" only in FY26.
15. EI Ceramics to return to normalized \~15% EBITDA margin Pending - At the Q3 FY22 call, management "absolutely" expected EI Ceramics to return to its normalized margin levels over the next few years, reiterated at Q2 FY24 as "easily get back" to prior \~15% EBITDA levels. The Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27 transcripts disclose no US subsidiary margin outcome - consolidated FY26 EBITDA margin was 7.7% and Q1 FY27 standalone EBITDA fell 17% YoY on cost pressures - so the commitment remains unverified.
16. NCLT goodwill write-off in 6-9 months Missed - At the Q4 FY21 call, management expected NCLT approval for the goodwill write-off against Share Premium "anywhere between six to nine months"; it was pushed to the next financial year at Q2 FY22, confirmed for FY23 at Q3 FY22, deferred again at Q4 FY22, and by Q4 FY23 no write-off was planned. The goodwill was instead fully amortized by FY26.
17. Dividend ₹7 per share FY25 and ₹2.15 per share FY26 Delivered - At Q4 FY25, the Board recommended a dividend of ₹7 per share, and at Q4 FY26, ₹2.15 per share for FY26. The FY25 dividend of ₹7 per share was paid and the FY26 dividend of ₹2.15 was recommended.
18. Bonus issue 1:1 Delivered - At Q4 FY25, the Board approved a bonus issue in ratio 1:1, subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals. On 21 July 2025, the company issued and allotted 3,60,39,312 bonus equity shares of ₹10 each in ratio 1:1.
19. Goodwill amortization ends FY27 Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management stated goodwill amortization would continue until FY27, confirmed at Q4 FY26 that the \~₹26.7 cr annual charge would not impact reported earnings from FY27 onwards. The legacy goodwill was fully amortized in FY26 with a nil standalone balance at March 2026, and Q1 FY27 PAT growth was partly supported by its absence.
20. Standalone 15-20% CAGR without new projects Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management stated standalone operations can grow at \~20% YoY, a "15% to 20% CAGR", without the two new projects. FY26 standalone total income grew 10% to ₹1,117 cr, and Q1 FY27 standalone revenue grew 8% YoY.
21. FY27 domestic growth double-digit On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, CFO Amit Agarwal targeted "double-digit growth for sure" for the domestic business in FY27, reiterated at Q1 FY27 as "double digit at least for the year-end". Q1 FY27 domestic revenue grew 7% YoY; the year-end horizon is not yet reached.
22. US operations double-digit EBITDA margin and major growth Delivered - At the Q4 FY26 call, management stated the US business is "back to double-digit EBITDA margin" and expected "a major growth also this year", building on confidence expressed at Q3 FY26. US revenue grew 26% YoY in Q4 and 25% in FY26 with margins at "high-teen levels", and Q1 FY27 delivered double-digit revenue growth.
23. Europe near-breakeven by end of FY27 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management expressed confidence in reaching near-breakeven profitability for Europe by end of FY27, after earlier expecting breakeven "maybe by this year-end" at Q2 FY26 and movement towards breakeven over the next financial year at Q3 FY26. Q1 FY27 Europe remained loss-making with Sheffield sales considerably low; the FY27 deadline has not arrived.
24. Hofmann Ceramics breakeven by end of FY27 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management expected Hofmann Ceramics "to move closer to a breakeven as we progress during FY27", reiterated at Q1 FY27 as breakeven by end of FY27. Hofmann losses reduced significantly during FY26 and the order book was maintained in Q1 FY27; the horizon is not yet reached.
25. Monocon UK breakeven by Q4 FY27 On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management expected Monocon UK breakeven within FY26 or early FY27, revised at Q4 FY26 to "by Q4 FY27". In Q1 FY27, Monocon UK losses reduced from the last quarter and turnover increased significantly; the Q4 FY27 deadline has not arrived.
26. Non-ferrous/cement 15-17% of revenue in 3-5 years, ₹200 cr potential On track - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided non-ferrous contribution at \~15-17% of the top line at maturity in 3-5 years, with ramp-up revenue of "around ₹200 cr" guided at Q4 FY25. FY25 non-ferrous revenue was close to ₹8-10 cr and alumina products qualified at most cement manufacturers by Q4 FY26; the window remains open.
27. IFGL-Marvel Gujarat JV production from FY28-FY29 On track - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided the ₹300 cr JV with Marvels International Group to begin trial and commercial production by March 2026, IFGL holding 51%; commissioning was later pushed to H2 FY28 with delivery from FY29, completion by beginning of FY29, and the FY29 target reiterated at Q3 FY26. Land was acquired in Bhachau, Kutch, with Press Note 3 approval still pending at Q1 FY27 and authorities advising a location change and re-application.
28. Odisha greenfield (DBM Bricks) commercial production FY27-FY28 On track - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided a ₹150 cr Odisha greenfield for 240,000 pieces of continuous casting refractories, completion in 18-24 months after land acquisition; the target moved to March 2026, then FY27 latter part, end of FY27 / Q4 FY28, end of FY28, and end of FY27-28, with no timeline committed at Q4 FY26. Land possession was taken and boundary wall work began by Q3 FY25, and no commercial production has started yet.
29. Sheffield technology transfer complete by end of calendar 2024 Partial - At the Q1 FY25 call, management committed the Sheffield technology transfer would be completed by end of calendar 2024, with customer trials in early 2025; it was pushed to Q1 FY26, December 2025, and March 2026 with acknowledged "some delay". Phase 1 is complete and Sheffield plastic ramming mass production began at Vizag, with full-fledged market entry targeted by end of 2026.
30. FY25 domestic growth 17% Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management projected domestic growth of around 17% for FY25, reiterated at Q1 FY25 with agreement it expected to do more than 17%. FY25 standalone domestic revenue grew 20% to ₹721 cr.
31. India domestic revenue share 70-75% in 3-5 years Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management targeted raising India's share of revenue from \~60% to 70-75% over the next 3-5 years. Standalone domestic share reached 72% in FY25 and 78% in FY26, with Q1 FY27 at 77%:23% domestic to exports.
32. Doubling consolidated turnover in five years (2021-2026) Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management reiterated a target of doubling turnover between 2021 and 2026, restated at Q1 FY25 as doubling the consolidated top line in five years. FY21 consolidated total income was ₹1,042 cr and FY26 reached ₹1,904 cr, \~83% growth rather than doubling.
33. Consolidated turnover ₹1,750 cr+ in FY24 Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management confirmed the consolidated turnover target of ₹1,750 cr+ for FY24 still stood; at Q3 FY24 management declined to restate it, deferring guidance to FY25. FY24 consolidated total income was ₹1,658 cr, short of the target.
34. Standalone EBITDA margin 15%+ sustainable Missed - At the Q2 FY24 call, management guided a sustainable standalone EBITDA margin of 15%-plus, restated to "around 14%" at Q4 FY25 and to a minimum of 12% at Q3 FY26. The Q4 FY26 PPT shows standalone EBITDA margin of 18.6% in FY24, 14% in FY25 and 11% in FY26, and Q1 FY27 at 10.5-11%.
35. Consolidated EBITDA margin 12%+ sustainable Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided consolidated FY24 EBITDA margin of "about 12% plus" and called 12%+ the sustainable level, reiterated through Q4 FY24, Q2 FY26 and Q3 FY26. Consolidated EBITDA margin before exceptionals was 12.8% in FY24, 8.7% in FY25 and 7.7% in FY26, and by Q1 FY27 management spoke only of "trying to achieve double-digit EBITDA margin".
36. ₹177 cr brownfield capex completed by Q1 FY25 Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided all planned capex (amended cost ₹177 cr) complete within FY24 with 85-90% by March 2024; cost was revised to \~₹160 cr at Q1 FY24 and completion pushed to Q1 FY25 at Q3 FY24, confirmed at Q4 FY24. The Q1 FY25 call stated the \~₹175 cr capex across the three Indian units was successfully completed.
37. R&D and Technology Centre, Odisha - operational H1 2023 Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided the new research and technology center in Odisha to be operational in the first half of 2023, pushed to H1 FY24 with November 2023 inauguration set at Q2 FY24. The centre was inaugurated 24 November 2023, with ₹18.42 cr capex incurred in FY24.
38. Kandla isostatic capacity doubling by Q1 FY24 Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided Kandla isostatic refractories capacity doubling from 20,000 to 40,000 pieces/month by Q1 FY24. The expansion was completed in March 2023, with \~90% of Kandla capex spent confirmed at the Q1 FY24 call.
39. Vizag Phase 3 - casting flux and mag carbon, ₹180-200 cr combined revenue potential On track - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided Phase 3 casting flux completion by Q4 FY24 with \~14,000 tons/year capacity; peak revenue was guided at \~₹80 cr for casting flux and \~₹100 cr for mag carbon at Q1 FY25, raised to ₹300-350 cr combined at Q2 FY25 and reiterated at ₹150-200 cr peak at Q1 FY27. The plants were inaugurated in May 2024 and July 2024, with both running at \~400 tonnes/month by Q4 FY25; no achieved revenue against the target has been disclosed.
40. Vizag Phase II completion by Q1 FY23, \~₹20 cr capex Partial - At the Q4 FY21 call, management guided Phase II of the Visakhapatnam expansion to be completed by Q1 FY23 at \~₹20 odd crores capex; it was re-guided to Q2 FY23 and then Q4 FY23. First product was shipped in March 2023, with total spend close to ₹20 crores, roughly two to three quarters after the original deadline.
41. Vizag greenfield Phase I commercial production Q1 FY22, ₹100-120 cr at full run-rate Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management guided Visakhapatnam Greenfield Phase I to start commercial production "hopefully in this quarter" (Q1 FY22), with \~₹30 cr capex generating \~₹100 cr revenue in a full year over 2-3 years; potential was restated at ₹100-120 cr at Q2 FY22, with utilization guided to 40-50% in FY24 at Q3 FY23. Phase I began commercial production from 1 September 2021 at \~₹30 cr cost, and total Vizag business reached \~₹160 cr in FY25.