1. Plasticizer EBITDA margin of 10-12% (net 4-5%) Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided plasticizer EBITDA margin at 10-12% (net 4-5%), with \~₹180-200 cr invested, 5x asset turnover and payback around four years. No plasticizer commercial production or margin data was available as of Q1 FY27.
2. CBG plant start in Q3 FY27, mechanical completion by Q2 FY27 On track - The Q4 FY25 PPT set CBG completion by June 2026, moved to Q2 CY26 and then to Q2 FY27 mechanical completion with start in Q3 FY27. At Q1 FY27 the Raichur plant was progressing well, aided by a new government CBG policy lifting capital subsidy \~40-50% and CBG prices \~33%, with no mechanical completion yet reported.
3. Plasticizer sales of 15,000-20,000 tonnes, ₹200-300 cr revenue in FY27 On track - At Q1 FY27, management targeted plasticizer sales of \~1,500-2,000 tonnes/month rising to 2,000-2,500 tonnes/month for the balance six months of FY27, roughly ₹200-300 cr of revenue, ramping toward 50,000-75,000 tonnes capacity over the next six to nine months. Commercial production had not started as of Q1 FY27, with start expected in August or early September 2026.
4. Quarterly EBITDA of \~₹120 cr at 19% going forward On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said that with four plants operating plus the plasticizer it expects "similar type of EBITDA every quarterly basis" (\~₹120 cr/quarter at 19%), with the next one or two quarters looking good. Q1 FY27 EBITDA came in at ₹120 cr with a 19.2% margin, the first quarter of the guided run-rate.
5. FY27 PAN volume of 2 lakh tonnes ±2-3% On track - At Q1 FY27, management reiterated FY27 PAN volume guidance of 2 lakh tonnes ±2-3% ("the 2 lakh 10 is intact") against capacity of 275,000 tonnes. Q1 FY27 production was 40,000-45,000 tonnes on \~3 to 3.5 plants with sales 10-15% lower QoQ - annualizing to \~160,000-180,000 tonnes, below target, but management reaffirmed the full-year guidance.
6. DEP debottlenecking from 8,400 to 12,000 tpa by March 2026 Delivered - The Q3 FY26 PPT set DEP plant de-bottlenecking from 8,400 tons to 12,000 tons, complete by March 2026, an option first flagged at Q1 FY23 alongside PA5. At the Q1 FY27 call, management said debottlenecking was completed during the last quarter, with DEP running at \~10,000 tpa versus 6,000-7,000 tpa earlier.
7. Plasticizer plant of 75,000 tpa complete by Q3 FY26 Partial - Announced at Q4 FY24 as a Taloja plasticizer plant costing \~₹165 cr (excluding GST) starting April 2024 with 18-month completion, restated at 75,000 tons extendable to 100,000 tons by Q3 FY26, with mechanical completion expected by March 2026. Mechanical completion was achieved in March 2026 against \~₹180-200 cr invested, and commercial production was still pending as of Q1 FY27, expected before September 2026.
8. ₹16 cr Pyrolysis Oil project via plastic waste recycling Pending - The Q4 FY25 PPT recorded Board approval of a ₹16 cr project for Pyrolysis Oil production via sustainable plastic waste chemical recycling. The FY25 annual report noted the facility under development and the FY26 annual report noted the CBG and Pyrolysis Oil project underway, with no completion or production milestone disclosed.
9. ₹10 per share dividend for FY25 Delivered - The Q4 FY25 PPT recorded the Board recommending a dividend of ₹10 per equity share for FY25. The FY25 annual report confirms the dividend of ₹10 per share.
10. ₹7.50 per share dividend for FY24 Delivered - The Q4 FY24 PPT recorded the Board recommending a dividend of ₹7.50 per equity share for FY24. The FY24 annual report confirms the dividend of ₹7.50 per share.
11. ₹5 per share dividend for FY26 Delivered - The Q4 FY26 PPT recorded the Board recommending a dividend of ₹5 per equity share for FY26. The FY26 annual report confirms the dividend of ₹5 per share.
12. 30% of revenue from non-phthalic products by 2025 Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management set a goal of 30% of revenue from non-phthalic products by 2025, reiterated in FY22 and FY23 filings with a possible six-to-twelve-month slip flagged at Q1 FY23. FY25 non-PAN revenue reached ₹165 cr, \~7% of total, and FY26 was ₹146 cr - management has since reframed the horizon as "coming years".
13. ₹10 per share (100%) final dividend for FY22 Delivered - At Q4 FY22, the Board recommended a final dividend of ₹10 per share (100%). The FY22 annual report confirms the dividend of ₹10 per share.
14. PA5 brownfield expansion of 53,000 tpa, complete by March 2024 Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management announced Board approval for a 53,000-tonne brownfield PA5 expansion at Taloja at \~₹350 crore, targeted for completion by March 2024, taking PAN capacity to 275,000 tpa, with the Q4 FY23 PPT restating production "before March 2024". PA5 was commissioned and capitalized during FY24 - PP&E rose to ₹984.4 cr from ₹669.2 cr and CWIP fell to ₹3.0 cr - with Q1 FY27 PPT confirming 275,110 MTPA across five plants.
15. Maintain \~45-50% PA market share Delivered - At Q1 FY23, management said PA capacity growth would aim to maintain \~45-50% market share on a regular basis. The company has consistently reported >50% domestic PAN market share, exceeding the guided floor.
16. Maleic Anhydride capacity up 1,500 MTPA to 9,160 MTPA Pending - The FY22 annual report stated Maleic Anhydride capacity being expanded by 1,500 MTPA, to 9,160 MTPA. The Q4 FY22 call mentioned a maleic debottlenecking option of 7,600 to \~9,000 tonnes as "yet to be decided by management", and the Q1 FY27 PPT lists four MAN plants at Taloja - no disclosure confirms the 9,160 MTPA level was achieved.
17. Revenue growth of 20-25% CAGR (three years, then five to six) Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management said two of three evaluated projects could drive 20-25% growth over five to six years, and at Q1 FY23 reiterated 20-25% CAGR revenue growth over the next three years. From FY22 revenue of ₹1,892 cr, revenue went ₹2,352 cr (FY23), ₹2,099 cr (FY24), ₹2,206 cr (FY25) and ₹1,925 cr (FY26), a FY22-FY25 CAGR of roughly +5.2%, with declines in FY24 and FY26.
18. Margins of $200-250/tonne sustained going forward Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management expected margins of around $200-250/ton to remain at a similar level going forward, consistent with the 10-year average, and at Q1 FY23 framed "$200 average for the year". OPM ran 13.51% in FY23, 5.02% in FY24, 9.93% in FY25 and 4.92% in FY26 before Q1 FY27's 18.16%, with company spread at \~$400 in Q1 FY27 including byproduct benefits against a market spread of $250-300.
19. PAT of ₹50 cr+ per quarter, EBITDA ₹350-400 cr sustained for two years Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management said that if margins stayed at $200-250/ton, the company expects ₹50 cr+ PAT consistently - EBITDA of ₹350-400 cr - sustained for the next two years, with the CFO affirming "100%". FY23 delivered EBITDA of ₹339.9 cr and PAT ₹200.3 cr, and FY24 EBITDA of ₹136.1 cr and PAT ₹39.7 cr - both years' EBITDA below the ₹350-400 cr range and FY24 PAT below the ₹50 cr/quarter floor.
20. FY23 non-phthalic revenue of ₹150-200 cr Delivered - At Q1 FY23, management targeted FY23 non-phthalic revenue of ₹150-200 cr (restated as \~₹180-200 cr: maleic ₹100-120 cr, DEP \~₹60 cr, other ₹20 cr) versus ₹120 cr in FY22, after guiding ₹100-150 cr at Q4 FY22. FY23 non-PAN revenue came in at ₹170 cr, up 42% YoY, within the guided range.
21. Downstream Plasticizer Project complete by mid CY 2021 Missed - The FY21 annual report stated a downstream Plasticizer Project under implementation, expected to be completed by mid CY 2021. No disclosure of a plasticizer project completed by mid CY 2021 exists in our record; the plasticizer plant was instead announced at Q4 FY24 with start April 2024 and completion by Q3 FY26.