1. Q4 FY27 production - 120,000-125,000 tons per quarter Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management expected quarterly production of about 120,000-125,000 tons by Q4 FY27. No read yet; Q4 FY27 has not been reached.
2. Q1 FY27 EBITDA cost - around ₹77,500/ton Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management expected EBITDA cost to remain at the current level of \~₹77,500/ton. Q1 FY27 EBITDA cost per ton was ₹85,884, well above the guided level.
3. Q4 FY26 EBITDA cost - around ₹77,500/ton Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management expected EBITDA cost to remain at the current level of \~₹77,500/ton. Q4 FY26 EBITDA cost per ton was ₹81,932, higher than guided.
4. Q3 FY26 EBITDA cost - around ₹77,500/ton Pending - At the Q1 FY26 call, management expected EBITDA cost to remain at the current level of \~₹77,500/ton. No explicit Q3 FY26 EBITDA cost per ton is in our record; Q3 FY26 OPM was 23.38%.
5. H1 FY26 production - around 130,000 tons Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided H1 FY26 production of around 130,000 tons over two quarters. Q1 FY26 production was 65,929 tons and Q2 FY26 was 65,671 tons, totalling 131,600 tons, in line with guidance.
6. Q4 FY26 production - \~65,000 tons Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management indicated per-quarter FY26 production of around 65,000 tonnes. Q4 FY26 production was 68,506 tons, above the guided level.
7. Debt policy - D/E not beyond 0.5 Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management committed not to go beyond a debt-to-equity of 0.5:1 for expansion, later indicating \~0.45 and then "not expecting to go beyond 0.3 at most". D/E now stands at 0.35 with long-term debt of ₹419 crores as of June 2026, within the committed ceiling.
8. FY26 capex - \~₹800 crores Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided FY26 capex spending of approximately ₹800 crores. ₹370-odd crores was incurred by Q3 FY26 and ₹600-odd crores by April 2026, below the guided plan.
9. Q1 FY27 sales volume - about 80,000 tons Delivered - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided Q1 FY27 sales of about 80,000 tons. Q1 FY27 sales were 79,268 tons, in line with guidance.
10. EBITDA cost reduction - ₹3,000-4,000/ton from KNR complex Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided a weighted average EBITDA cost reduction of ₹3,000-4,000/ton once the entire KNR complex is running, with steady-state from Q4 FY27, later refined to ₹1,500-2,000/ton improvement from KNR-1 and KNR-2 stabilization. Q1 FY27 EBITDA cost was ₹85,884 vs ₹81,932 in Q4 FY26, reflecting ramp-up inefficiencies; the steady-state horizon has not been reached.
11. Domestic sales mix - 60:40 export:domestic by next year On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided the export-domestic mix to move from 90:10 to about 60:40 in favour of exports by "sometime next year". Q1 FY27 domestic sales were about 15-19%, showing movement toward the target with the horizon not yet reached.
12. FY27 ore raising - 10 lakh tons On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided an FY27 ore raising target of 10 lakh tons. Q1 FY27 ore raising was 272,555 tons, consistent with the annual target.
13. FY26 ore raising - 8.25-8.5 lakh tons Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided FY26 ore raising of 8.25 lakh tons, revised to \~8.5 lakh tons at Q2 FY26. FY26 chrome ore raising was 8.10 lakh tons, close to the original target.
14. KNR 2 fifth furnace (33 MVA) - commissioning June 2027 Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided the partially built 33 MVA furnace at KNR 2 for commissioning "broadly June 2027"; at Q1 FY27 clarity was expected within 3-4 months with an additional ₹15-20 crores budget approved. Environmental clearances are being sought with no definitive commissioning date confirmed.
15. FY28 ferrochrome production - 475,000-500,000 tons Pending - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided FY28 ferrochrome production between 475,000 to 500,000 tonnes, reiterated at Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27. No read yet; FY28 has not been reached.
16. FY27 ferrochrome production - \~400,000 tons On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided FY27 ferrochrome production of approximately 400,000 tonnes, reiterated at Q4 FY26; at Q1 FY27 this was revised down to \~380,000 tons on KNR-2 transformer loading and gas cleaning plant work. Q1 FY27 production was 80,690 tons, consistent with the ramp-up toward \~120,000-125,000 tons per quarter by Q4 FY27.
17. Tata Steel Kalinganagar acquisition - close within 3 months Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management expected the Tata Steel Kalinganagar ferrochrome plant acquisition to close within three months, "within the calendar year, if possible", later narrowed to "within the month of February itself". The acquisition closed February 27, 2026, with furnaces switched on in March 2026 contributing \~2,200 tons to Q4 FY26.
18. Phase 2 ferrochrome expansion - 200,000 tons at Kalinganagar Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management discussed a Phase 2 expansion of \~200,000 tons at Kalinganagar, subsequently timed for FY28-FY29 and "likely in 3 to 4 years". Instead, the Tata Steel acquisition added 150,000 tons capacity and the previously-envisioned 220,000-ton Phase 2 is not being pursued.
19. Q2 FY25 EBITDA cost - around ₹77,000-78,000/ton Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided Q2 EBITDA cost per ton to remain at Q1 levels, "around ₹77,000, ₹78,000". Q2 FY25 EBITDA cost per ton was around ₹77,500, within the guided range.
20. Q1 FY25 EBITDA cost - ₹82,000-83,000/ton Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided Q1 FY25 EBITDA production cost at \~₹82,000-83,000/ton. Q1 FY25 EBITDA cost per ton was ₹77,000, better than guided.
21. Q1 FY25 realization - increase by ₹3,000-4,000/ton Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided Q1 FY25 net realization to increase by \~₹3,000-4,000/ton to ₹1,05,000-1,06,000. Q1 FY25 blended net sales realization was ₹1,03,755 vs ₹1,01,771 in Q4 FY24, an increase of \~₹2,000/ton.
22. FY25 ferrochrome production - 250,000-260,000 tons Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 ferrochrome production at "around 250,000 to 260,000" tons. FY25 production was 260,190 tons, at the top of the guided range.
23. Ethanol project - 120 KLD, ₹200-220 crore turnover Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided an ethanol project with \~₹140 crore cost, commissioning in 12-14 months, and turnover of ₹200-220 crores; the timeline slipped through several quarters to commissioning in November 2026 with trial run October 2026. The project is in advanced mechanical erection with no revenue yet, against an original timeline implying commissioning by mid-2025.
24. Renewable power project - 50 MW hybrid by March-June 2025 Partial - At the Q2 FY24 call, management guided a 50 MW renewable round-the-clock hybrid project with generation beginning between March-April 2025 to June 2025; this evolved into 70 MW JSW and 40 MW Ampin by June 2026, with Ampin replaced by 65 MW Enfinity. The JSW corridor has been in place since June 2026 with power expected August 2026, and Enfinity expected June 2027.
25. FY24 sales volume - around 250,000 tons Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided FY24 sales volumes at around 250,000 tonnes, "the same level or maybe a little more than FY23". FY24 sales were 264,119 tons, above the guided level.
26. Utkal C compensation - full recovery of \~₹350-400 crores Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, management expected to recover the entire investment in UCL compensation, with the statutory portion of \~₹20 crore by October 2022 and the balance by March 2023, later hopeful of "around ₹350 crores" and a maximum of ₹390 crores. Compensation was quantified at ₹353 crores with \~₹220 crores of interest recognized and ₹221 crores written off; the Utkal Coal merger was approved with appointed date 28 March 2025.
27. Q4 FY23 production - \~59,000 tons Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided Q4 production of \~59,000 tons. Q4 FY23 production was 61,200 tons, above the guided level.
28. Q4 FY23 margin recovery - back to \~20% level Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management said margins were expected to return to the \~20% level in the following quarter. Q4 FY23 EBITDA was ₹143 crores; against derived Q4 revenue of \~₹636 crores (FY23 ₹2,676 crores less nine-month ₹2,039.49 crores), margin was \~22%, above the guided level.
29. Q2 FY23 ferrochrome realization - around ₹1,15,000/ton Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided Q2 ferrochrome realization to come down to "maybe around 115" (₹1,15,000/ton). Q2 FY23 realization was \~₹1,03,000/ton, significantly below the guided level.
30. Q1 FY23 ferrochrome realization - ₹1,20,000/ton Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management expected ferrochrome realization of around ₹1,20,000/ton in Q1 FY23. Q1 FY23 average realization was ₹1,21,000/ton, meeting the guided level.
31. Ferrochrome production - 2,50,000 tons FY23 Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management planned FY23 ferrochrome production at around 2,50,000 tons. FY23 production was 2,46,000 tons, within \~2% of the target.
32. Total capex - ₹1,500-1,650 crores over 6-7 years Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided total capex of ₹1,500-1,650 crores ("roughly 1,600 crores") over 6-7 years from internal accruals, later raised to \~₹2,000 crores over 6-7 years with \~₹1,000 crores for underground mines over 5 years. FY26 spend was ₹370-odd crores, FY27 guided at \~₹450-odd crores and FY28 at \~₹700-odd crores, with execution ongoing.
33. Mining capex - ₹1,000 crores over 7 years On track - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided ₹1,000 crores capex on mining over a period of 7 years from internal accruals, with the timeline variously restated. By Q3 FY26, \~₹780 crores was ordered with \~₹120 crores cash outlay; Sukinda underground works are in progress and Mahagiri underground reached 5.36 lakh tons in FY26.
34. Kalinganagar capex - ₹550 crores over 4 years, funded from internal accruals Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided capex of ₹550 crores on the furnace over the next 4 years, funded from internal accruals; this was revised through ₹600 crores, ₹650 crores to a base ₹840 crores, \~₹900 crores including commissioning costs. About 60% of KNR 1 was spent by Q3 FY26 with \~₹300-odd crores remaining, and ₹600-odd crores spent by April 2026.
35. Kalinganagar greenfield furnace - 1 lakh ton capacity by end FY25, operational FY26 Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided the new Kalinganagar furnace of 1 lakh ton incremental capacity to be operational by end of FY25, taking total production to around 3.5 lakh tons, with commissioning targeted March 2025; the date slipped repeatedly to first tapping in the third week of August 2026, with the second furnace expected September 2026. CTO and Factory License have been received with switching on underway, and full stabilization expected by Q3 FY27 - about 15 months past the original deadline.
36. Mine capacity expansion - 12 lakh tons per annum by FY27 Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management confirmed a plan to take mine capacity from 6,50,000 tons to 12 lakh tons by FY27, with MMC underground enhanced from 3 to 6 lakhs "very fast" plus 6 lakhs from SMC underground; the horizon was later reset to FY31/FY32. FY26 ore raising was 8.10 lakh tons with Mahagiri underground at 5.36 lakh tons and Sukinda still 3-4 lakh tons open cast.
37. Chrome ore production - 6 lakh tons FY23, 8 lakh tons by FY25/26 Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management targeted chrome ore production of more than 6 lakh tons in FY23 and around 8 lakh tons "by FY25 or '26", with interim targets of 6.7 lakh tons for FY24, 7.3 lakh tons for FY25 and 8.25-8.5 lakh tons for FY26. FY24 crossed 6 lakh tons for the first time, FY25 crossed 7 lakh tons (702,000 tons), and FY26 achieved a record 8.10 lakh tons.