1. Domestic and emerging markets growth - 10-11% CAGR over next 2-3 years Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, Sundeep Bambolkar said domestic and emerging markets are expected to grow at about 10% to 11% CAGR over the next 2 to 3 years. Q1 FY27 domestic formulations revenue was Rs.204 crores, up 0.6%, and emerging markets Rs.31.7 crores, down 31.2%.
2. Overall sales CAGR - 12-15% over next few years On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, on an analyst's suggestion of 12% to 15% overall sales CAGR over the next few years, management agreed: "Overall, yes, yes". Q1 FY27 consolidated revenue was Rs.466.2 crores, up 8.2% YoY, and TTM revenue of Rs.1,873 crores grew 11.96%.
3. OTC business - at least 30% growth next financial year On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided OTC revenue "should go up safely by at least 30%" next financial year, against \~INR130 crores expected in the current year. FY26 OTC revenue was INR120 crore, and Q1 FY27 Warren Remedies OTC delivered INR34 crores with healthy growth.
4. API business - Rs.200 crores yearly run rate next year On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management said the API business, ramping from an INR25 crores to INR40-45 crores external base, can touch the INR200 crores yearly run rate "next year, I'm very confident". Q4 FY26 API revenue de-grew 23% to Rs.31.5 crores, but Q1 FY27 grew 42.4% to Rs.52.1 crores, \~Rs.208 crores annualized.
5. FPP breakeven - in a couple of quarters Partial - At the Q2 FY26 call, management said FPP should break even "in a couple of quarters". Q2 FY26 FPP had negative net worth of INR35 crores with a combined quarterly loss of INR23 crores, and by Q4 FY26 negative net worth was INR82 crores; the U.S. subsidiary turned positive in Q1 FY27.
6. Europe revenue - INR300 crores by FY27 On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management said Europe should reach the INR300 crore milestone "by next year itself", noting H1 FY26 revenue of INR118 crore implies a run rate of INR230-250 crore already; by Q3 FY26 the aspiration was INR400-500 crores by FY28 or FY29. FY26 Europe revenue was \~Rs.245 crores, and Q1 FY27 was Rs.65 crores.
7. Europe supply recovery - bounce back slipped one quarter to Q4 FY26 Partial - At the Q1 FY26 call, management said Europe supply challenges would be overcome by end of Q2 FY26, with "by Q3, you will see Europe bounce back to its regular levels of supply". Instead, at the Q3 FY26 call management admitted delays pushed the recovery by one quarter, and Europe revenue grew 68.7% to Rs.78.6 crores only in Q4 FY26.
8. Master manufacturing plan - complete by end of Q2 FY26 Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided that the master manufacturing program rollout will be complete by end of Q2 FY26, so that "come Q3, from day 1, we should have all plants up and going". Q2 FY26 MMP (Europe) was completed, with customer approvals following through Q4 FY26.
9. FY26 capex - not more than Rs.50 crores incrementally Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided FY26 capex of "not anything more than around Rs.50 Cr incrementally", completing only ongoing projects at Goa Plant-2 and the Warren API site; later guidance moved to INR50-70 crores and then INR35-40 crores maintenance capex. CWIP fell from 321 in FY25 to 90.01 in FY26.
10. Debt repayment - Rs.140 crore per year for next 3 years On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, the CFO committed to debt repayment of INR140 crore in FY26-27, another INR140 crore the year after, and "almost similar amount" in FY28-29; at Q1 FY27 this was revised to INR110 crores this year and INR150 crores next year. Q1 FY27 debt was reduced by \~INR30-odd crores vs March 2026, with \~INR100 crores-plus scheduled for July-March.
11. Debt peak - \~Rs.960 crores, no further debt planned Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management said total debt of \~INR960 crores is estimated to be the peak, with no further debt planned. Debt was Rs.951 crore at June 2025, \~INR900 crores at Q3 FY26, \~960 crore at March 2026, and \~INR930 crores at June 2026.
12. Warren Remedies breakeven - FY27 On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management said FY27 is the "safe to say" year for Warren Remedies breakeven; at Q2 FY26 it affirmed EBITDA-level breakeven in FY27 but was "not sure" on PAT level. Warren Remedies broke even at EBITDA in Q1 FY26, but Q1 FY27 Warren overall had an EBITDA loss of INR6 crores.
13. Warren Remedies (OTC toothpaste) - in excess of Rs.120 crores in FY25 Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management expected the two OTC toothpaste brands, now with Warren Remedies, to do "in excess of INR120 crores" in FY25, versus \~INR85-90 crores when in ethical. Q3 FY26 OTC did INR34 crores in the quarter and INR94 crores YTD; FY26 OTC revenue reached INR120 crore, one year late.
14. Emerging markets growth - 18-20% CAGR for next couple of years Partial - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided 18% to 20% growth on a CAGR basis from the emerging markets business for the next couple of years. FY25 saw declines of 12.8% in Q2, 17.4% in Q3 and 53.4% in Q4, before FY26 recovered with Q1 +48.7% and Q4 +134%.
15. Goa Plant 2 remediation - completion by Q3 FY25 Partial - At the Q1 FY25 call, management expected most plant-related corrections at Goa Plant 2 to be completed in Q2 FY25, with consistent supply from Q3 FY25 onwards; the timeline was later pushed to July-August 2025. U.S. FDA allowed manufacturing from 2 of 4 lines end-May 2025, and as of Q1 FY27 the plant audit update was still awaited.
16. FY25 EBITDA margin - minimum 15% by Q3 FY25 Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided "by third quarter, I'm looking at a minimum of 15%, if not more" EBITDA margin, and a minimum of 15% for the whole year FY25; by Q3 FY25 the earlier confidence of 13%-14% "has gone for a toss". Q3 FY25 standalone EBITDA was 5.5% at Rs.20.1 crores and FY25 was 8.6% at Rs.128 crores.
17. US business FY25 growth - 30% CAGR over next 2 years Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management confirmed 30% growth in the U.S. market over the next 2 years, on a CAGR basis. FY25 US revenue was \~Rs.123 crores, with quarterly figures of Rs.48.7, 24.7, 28 and 30.8 crores, and FY26 quarterly revenue of Rs.28.3 to 54.6 crores remained well below FY24 levels.
18. Europe business FY25 growth - 15-20% Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided Europe business growth of "around 15% to 20%" for FY25. FY25 Europe revenue was \~Rs.217 crores - Q1 Rs.75.4, Q2 Rs.59.9, Q3 Rs.35.4, Q4 Rs.46.6 crores - against FY24's Rs.277 crores, a decline of \~22%.
19. FY24 EBITDA margin - 17.5% Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management revised down FY24 EBITDA margin guidance from \~18% to "for the full year go up to 17.5%"; by Q2 FY24 the wording softened to "every endeavor will be done for us to try and match the 17%". FY24 EBITDA margin was 14.6% at Rs.258 crores, with Q4 FY24 at 13.2%.
20. India/domestic business FY24 growth - 11-12% minimum Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management said no company-wide guidance was given this year, but expects India/domestic business growth of "close to 11%, 12% minimum" by end of the year, confirmed again at Q2 FY24. FY24 domestic formulation revenues grew 6.0% to Rs.796.7 crores, with Q4 FY24 up 3.6%.
21. Europe business FY24 revenue - Rs.375-380 crores Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided Europe annual revenue "in the range of around INR375 crores to INR380 crores", reiterated at Q2 FY24 as "375 to 380 definitely and we may do better". Q4 FY24 disclosed Europe full-year FY24 revenue of INR277 crores.
22. US business FY24 revenue - Rs.280-300 crores Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided US business FY24 revenue "in the range of 280 to 300" crores, revisiting earlier guidance due to OAI-related milestone delays; at Q3 FY24 management said "this year we will end up very close to the figure you mentioned". FY24 US revenue was Rs.286 crores per later disclosure.
23. ROCE improvement - 15% at Rs.5,000 crores topline Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided ROCE improvement from 13% to 15% at the point the company reaches Rs.5,000 crores topline. ROCE was 13% as on 31/12/22, then 9.76% in FY24, -0.40% in FY25 and 0.78% in FY26, with the Rs.5,000 crore topline target delayed.
24. Rs.5,000 crores topline - five years / FY27-28 Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management said the first-line team collectively took a target of achieving Rs.5000 Crores in five years, and at Q3 FY23 Aditi Panandikar confirmed "Yes, 27-28"; at Q2 FY26 the target "looks a little bit distant" with a delay of "probably 18 months" beyond 2027. FY26 consolidated revenue was Rs.1,845 crores, with a revised \~INR3,500 crores target by roughly FY29.
25. R&D spend - stabilize at around 5% of sales Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management said R&D spend will stay put at around 5% of sales: "It will not go up we will stabilize it around this"; guidance later ranged at 5%-5.5% and 5% to 6%, before moving to "easily down to 4%" at Q2 FY26. Q1 FY27 R&D spend was less than 5% of revenue.
26. API external sales FY23 - close to Rs.100 crores Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided API external sales for FY23 "as much as last year... so close to 100" crores, despite rising internal consumption. FY23 API quarterly revenues were Rs.18.3, 16.2, 16.2 and 21.7 crores, implying \~Rs.72 crores for the year.
27. US business FY23 revenue - at least Rs.300 crores Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided the US business to do "at least Rs.300 Crores" for full year FY23; at Q3 FY23 this was revised down to "somewhere between Rs.280 and Rs.285 crores" citing two postponed approvals. FY23 US business delivered Rs.265.9 crores, +25% YoY, with the miss attributed to the Plant 1 warning letter.
28. FY23 EBITDA margin - 20% odd Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management reiterated EBITDA margin guidance of "20% odd" for FY23, citing ramp-up of international business in H2 and COGS coming under control; at Q3 FY23 it said "definitely we will do as good as what we did last year". FY23 EBITDA margin was 17.4% at Rs.284.9 crores vs 21.8% in FY22.
29. India business FY23 growth - at least 5% on Rs.803 cr base Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided India business full-year FY23 growth at "at least 5% if not more" on a reported base of Rs.803 crores, i.e. \~Rs.840-845 crores, with Aditi Panandikar confirming "Correct"; at Q3 FY23 the guide moved to "close to 830" crores. FY23 domestic formulation revenues degrew 0.8% to Rs.796.7 crores.
30. Warren Remedies commercial production - Q4 FY24 Delivered - In the FY23 Annual Report, Warren Remedies Private Limited, the wholly owned subsidiary, had awarded the civil work contract and was "hopeful to commence commercial production by the fourth quarter of the financial year 2023-2024". Construction began in September 2022, with the Toothpaste Block starting February 20, 2024 and API intermediary production from March 19, 2024.