1. New businesses (iSherlock, ESG etc.) - $50-100 Mn in 5 years On track - At the Q4 FY23 call, Arun Jain stated Banesh's new businesses (iSherlock, ESG etc.) have potential of "$50-100 Mn in next 5 years" at 50-60% or 70% margins. Q3 FY26 reported IntellectAI (wealth and insurance) crossed ₹500 Crs LTM, and Q4 FY26 reported the youngest business (started 2022-23) crossed ₹500 Crore; no specific iSherlock/ESG revenue figure was disclosed.
2. Platform investment - $25-30 Mn total, \~70% expensed Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management stated total investment across 6 platforms is $25-30 Mn, with \~70% expensed and capitalization below $20 Mn (\~₹140 Crs). FY26 R&D saw ₹160 Crore capitalised and ₹235 Crore charged to P&L, and Q1 FY27 guided an R&D budget of ₹180-₹200 crores for FY27 after the bucket moved to "between ₹190 Crore and ₹200 crore now".
3. No capital dilution - platform investment Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management stated platform investment would come from existing cash flows, with no capital dilution, and Arun confirmed no capital was being raised for platform investment. No capital raise was disclosed through Q1 FY27; cash and cash equivalents stood at ₹1,269 Cr as of Q1 FY27, and the FY26 annual report describes a debt-free balance sheet, though the reported financials report debt of ₹159 Cr (D/E 0.05).
4. EBITDA margin at $100 Mn run-rate - 30-35% Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management reiterated that at the $100 Mn quarterly run-rate, EBITDA margins should come back to 30-35%. The $100 Mn quarterly revenue level was reached by Q4 FY26, but EBITDA margin there was 21.65%, and LTM Q1 FY27 EBITDA margin was \~21.9% (₹721 Cr on ₹3,299 Cr), with the 30% timeline repeatedly deferred.
5. $100 Mn quarterly revenue - 8-12 quarters Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management stated the company was working toward $100 Mn quarterly revenue in 8-12 quarters, from a Q1 FY23 base of $70 Mn. Through the window, quarterly revenue stayed below $100 Mn (Q1 FY26 total income ₹734 Cr ≈ $86 Mn); the level was reached only at Q4 FY26 (total income ₹884 Cr) and Q1 FY27 (₹872 Cr), at the window's outer edge.
6. Calibrated growth design - 20% dollar growth Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, Arun Jain reiterated the calibrated growth design of 20% (dollar terms) despite LTM growth of 29%. FY23 revenue grew 18.80% and FY26 grew 21.53%, but FY24 grew 12.33% and FY25 declined 0.26%; management's own scorekeeping showed FY24 at 14% ex-GeM vs designed 20% and FY25 at 11% ex-GeM vs designed 15%.
7. EBITDA margin - 22-25% reset from 25-30% Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management reset EBITDA margin guidance to 22-25% (from the earlier 25-30% target), with \~4-5% of margin reinvested into platform and R&D. FY24 EBITDA margin was 21.52% and FY25 was 21.22%, but FY26 fell to 19.11%, below the band; Q4 FY25 quarterly margin hit 30% while Q4 FY26 was 21.65%.
8. US market growth - 50% in FY23 Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, Arun Jain guided US market growth of 50% "this year" (FY23), stating "this year we have visibility that US will move 50% growth in the US market". At the Q4 FY23 call, US exposure was reported in single digits with more business in Canada than US, after losing 2 US deals post the banking crisis and 2 post the Ukraine war; no FY23 US growth figure was disclosed.