1. Metformin - 950 MT/month by end of FY26 Missed - In the FY25 annual report, management said the existing plant was being re-engineered to support 950 MT/month of Metformin production by end of FY26. Capacity stood at 7,200 MTPA, equivalent to 600 MT/month, with no 950 MT/month confirmation.
2. FY28 top line - 15-20% growth; EBITDA 15-17% Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided FY28 top line growth of 15-20% and EBITDA margin of 15-17%, qualified as based on the current scenario. FY28 has not been reached.
3. FY27 revenue growth - 15-20%; EBITDA 14-15% On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided FY27 revenue growth of 15-20% with EBITDA margin of 14-15%. Q1 FY27 revenue grew 37.08% YoY and EBITDA margin was 14.6%, within the guided range.
4. FY27 revenue - ₹2,600-2,700 cr; EBITDA 13-15% On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management set an FY27 revenue target of ₹2,600-2,700 cr with EBITDA margin of 13-15%; later revised to ₹2,700 cr, "27 by 27" maintained, and ₹2,600-2,700 cr with a possible crossing. Q1 FY27 revenue was ₹756 cr, annualizing to \~₹3,024 cr.
5. Non-ibuprofen peak revenue - ₹800-1,000 cr in 2-3 years On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided non-ibuprofen APIs to peak revenue of ₹800-1,000 cr in 2-3 years. Q1 FY27 non-ibuprofen crossed a ₹200 cr quarterly run rate, annualizing to \~₹800 cr, at the low end of the range.
6. Minoxidil - ₹50-60 cr peak revenue Pending - At the Q1 FY26 call, management expected peak revenue of ₹50-60 cr from Minoxidil. No Minoxidil revenue figure has been disclosed in our record.
7. Unit 9B - Minoxidil completion by Q3 FY26 Partial - At the Q1 FY26 call, management expected Unit 9B (Minoxidil) to be completed by Q3 FY26. Minoxidil launched in FY26, with intermediate sold as merchant sale from Q3 FY26 and final API commercialization pushed to Q1 FY27.
8. FY26 revenue growth - 10-15% Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided FY26 revenue growth of 10-15%. FY26 revenue growth came in at 11.54%, within the guided range.
9. EBITDA margin - more than 15% FY26 Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided FY26 EBITDA margin of "more than 15%". FY26 EBITDA margin was 12.4%, below the 15% target.
10. Paracetamol capacity extension - five digits Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management planned to extend Paracetamol capacity in FY25 and, asked the percentage increase, said "It will be in five digits". Paracetamol capacity was expanded to 10,800 MTPA from 3,600 MTPA in March 2025.
11. Topline ₹3,000 cr by FY28/FY29 On track - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected topline of ₹3,000 cr from existing products by FY28/FY29, growing 12-13% every year; Q4 FY26 set maximum revenue potential at 100% utilization of ₹3,200-3,300 cr. FY26 revenue was ₹2,319 cr and Q1 FY27 revenue of ₹756 cr annualizes to \~₹3,024 cr.
12. FY25 EBITDA margin - 12-15% Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 EBITDA margin of 12-15%. FY25 EBITDA margin was 10.7%, below the 12% floor.
13. FY25 revenue growth - 10-12% Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 revenue growth of 10-12%. FY25 revenue declined 2.51%.
14. Non-ibuprofen revenue - ₹500-550 cr FY24 Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management expected non-ibuprofen revenue of more than ₹500-550 cr in FY24, revised down to \~₹450 cr at Q3 FY24. FY24 non-ibuprofen API revenue was ₹431 cr, short of even the revised target.
15. Acetic anhydride - commercialization within this quarter Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management said "within this quarter we will commercialize" the acetic anhydride plant. The plant was commissioned only by Q1 FY24 and commercialized during Q2 FY24, with \~40% of production being sold domestically - roughly two quarters late.
16. Growth - 10-15% for coming year Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided 10-15% growth for the coming year, FY24. FY24 revenue declined 3.80%.
17. Sitagliptin - launch a few quarters out Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management said the sitagliptin launch "would be a few quarters out". Sitagliptin was not commercially launched through FY26, flagged as unlikely in FY24 and held out of commercial production by a price war in Q2 FY26.
18. FY23 - muted single-digit growth; FY24 double-digit Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided muted single-digit revenue growth for FY23 and said it was "very confident of double-digit growth" in FY24. FY23 revenue grew 1.52% but FY24 declined 3.80%.
19. New plant - ₹300 cr, 18 months Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management planned a new plant in western India for specialty chemicals and pharma intermediates with \~₹300 cr capex, complete within 18 months; partners were contracted by Q2 FY23, investment postponed at Q3 FY23, a 101-acre site was acquired by Q2 FY25, and the greenfield outlay became ₹1,200-1,400 cr over 4-5 years. The western India plant was never built; the project was on the Chandigarh-Bathinda Highway site and still in approval stage as of Q1 FY27.
20. Backward integration for non-ibuprofen products by 2025 Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management committed that over the next two to three years, backward integration would be achieved wherever possible for key non-ibuprofen products. Paracetamol, levetiracetam, clopidogrel and pantoprazole were fully backward integrated by FY25; metformin was not, with DCDA sourced from China.
21. Company EBITDA - 15%+ this year (FY23) Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided the 13% EBITDA margin delivered in FY22 to be taken to "15% plus this year" for FY23. FY23 EBITDA margin was 11.2%.
22. Pharma top line - at least 10% growth Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided pharma top line to grow by at least 10% in FY23. Pharma segment revenue rose from ₹1,008 cr in FY22 to ₹1,259 cr in FY23, growth of \~25%.
23. Paracetamol capacity - 3,600 tons by end of year Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided Paracetamol capacity from \~1,800 tons/year to about 3,600 tons "by the end of this year". Capacity was expanded from 1,800 to 3,600 TPA in Q4 FY23.
24. Metformin regulatory approvals - a few more quarters Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management said Metformin regulatory approvals for export and regulated markets would take "a few more quarters". Metformin received CDE approval for China in 2024, US FDA approval via customer ANDA and CEP approval.
25. FY23 non-ibuprofen \~₹500 cr, ibuprofen \~₹750 cr Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management endorsed the analyst's FY23 assumption of \~₹500 cr non-ibuprofen and \~₹750 cr ibuprofen revenue. FY23 non-ibuprofen contribution was ₹476 cr; ibuprofen revenue was not explicitly stated for FY23 in our record.
26. EBITDA margin - 20-25% target Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management called EBITDA margin of 20-25% "a reasonable target for us to hit" over a three-year horizon, subsequently revised through 18-20%, 15-20%, 15-16%, 15-17%, 12-15%, 14-15%, 11-12%, 16-18% and 14-15% for FY27. Actual margins ran from 10.7% (FY25) to 14.6% (Q1 FY27), never reaching 20-25%.
27. US ibuprofen commercial quantities - FY23 Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided that commercial quantities of ibuprofen would go into the US in FY23. US sales had "just started" at Q2 FY22; by Q1 FY26 there was no North America business and by Q4 FY26 US sales were indirect and not in much quantity directly.
28. Ibuprofen pricing - $11-12 blended for FY22 Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, management committed that blended ibuprofen pricing for the year would be between $11 and $12 per kg, calling it "the absolute bottom pricing". FY22 ibuprofen weighted average price was $11-11.5, within the guided range.
29. Russian regulatory audit - Q2 FY22 Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management expected the Russian regulatory audit in Q2 FY22, with timing pushed out due to COVID. Russian regulatory approvals for six products were received in FY22.
30. Exports - 40%+ of business Missed - At the Q1 FY22 call, management expected exports to exceed 40% of total business over the next 2-3 years, later reset through "well beyond 40-45%", 35%, 45-50%, 40-45%, 40% and \~30% at Q1 FY27. Exports ran from 25-30% in FY22 to 24% in FY26 and 28.5% in Q1 FY27.
31. Non-ibuprofen pharma - 15% of total revenue in FY22 Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management targeted non-ibuprofen pharma revenue at \~15% of total revenue for FY22, up from 10% in FY21. Non-ibuprofen contributed \~20% of quarterly revenue in Q4 FY22 and 16% of FY22 revenues.
32. New products - 40% gross margin, 25-30% EBITDA Missed - At the Q4 FY21 call, management said new products at steady state were expected to deliver gross margins in the 40% region and EBITDA of at least 25-30%. Non-ibuprofen EBITDA margins were single-digit in Q4 FY22 and Q1 FY24, with no 25-30% disclosure in our record.
33. Unit 9 and Unit 10 commercialization - Q1 FY22 Partial - At the Q4 FY21 call, management said Unit 9 and Unit 10 would be commercialized in the next quarter, Q1 FY22, with installation on schedule. Unit 10 installation completed in Q1 FY22; Unit 9 was delayed by the COVID second wave and completed by Q3 FY22.
34. FLU multipurpose plant - full capacity in FY22 Partial - At the Q3 FY21 call, management targeted the FLU multipurpose plant for May-June 2021, to be at full capacity in FY22. Unit 10 (Fenofibrate, Lamotrigine, UDCA) installation completed in Q1 FY22, but Fenofibrate utilization was only 20-25% in FY23 rising to 45-50% in FY24, with no full-capacity confirmation in our record.
35. Ibuprofen full capacity - 12,000 MTPA by 2023 Delivered - At the Q3 FY21 call, management said Ibuprofen could not reach full 12,000 MTPA capacity in the coming year but "maybe in '23 we will be able to achieve the full capacity", with utilization targets revised through \~85%, 95% peak, 85-90%, 90% and 90-95%. Utilization reached 85-90% in Q4 FY23 and 95% by Q4 FY24, fluctuating to 90-95% by Q3 FY26.
36. Debt-free status - "will remain debt-free" Delivered - At the Q3 FY21 call, management stated the company is debt-free and "will remain debt-free", with all expenses from internal accruals. The company remained debt-free with no long-term debt since FY21, net debt to equity of 0.08-0.09, and only working capital borrowings of ₹117-132 cr.
37. FY22 top line ₹2,400-2,500 cr, PAT 20% Missed - At the Q3 FY21 call, management targeted FY22 top line of ₹2,400-2,500 cr with PAT in the range of 20%. FY22 revenue was ₹2,216 cr and PAT was ₹166 cr, a PAT margin of \~7.5%.
38. Ethyl acetate capacity - 120,000 MT Delivered - At the Q3 FY21 call, management targeted full-fledged ethyl acetate capacity of \~120,000 MT "maybe next year we'll reach", from 87,000 MT installed; capacity reached 100,000 MT in Q4 FY21 and a further 20% expansion to \~120,000 MT was set for end of FY23. Capacity was enhanced to 120,000 MTPA on 2nd March 2026, running at 98-100% utilization.
39. Ibuprofen pricing - $15-16 for the year Missed - At the Q2 FY21 call, management said Ibuprofen pricing had held USD 15-16 for six months and "it will be the same number for the year as well", with no price decline foreseen; guidance was later cut to $13-14, \~$12 for FY22 and blended $11-12. FY21 realization was \~$14.5, FY22 weighted average $11-11.5, and $9-10 by Q1 FY26.
40. FY21 growth - 15-20% "definitely achieved" Missed - At the Q2 FY21 call, management said FY21 full-year growth of 15-20% "will definitely be achieved" despite a slow Q1. FY21 revenue grew 4% to ₹1,991 cr.
41. Total turnover ₹2,800 cr at full expansion, PAT margin \~19% Partial - At the Q2 FY21 call, management expected total turnover of \~₹2,800 cr plus-minus at full implementation of expansion plans with PAT margin sustained at \~19%; peak-revenue estimates were later revised to ₹2,400-2,500 cr, ₹2,700-2,800 cr and ₹3,200-3,300 cr. FY26 revenue was ₹2,319 cr with PAT margin 5.9%; Q1 FY27 revenue of ₹756 cr annualizes to \~₹3,024 cr with PAT margin 8.4%.
42. Revenue growth - 15-20% annually Missed - At the Q2 FY21 call, management targeted revenue growth of 15-20% every year "in times to come", with the guidance reset repeatedly down to \~15%, 15-18%, 10-15%, \~10%, 10-12%, 10%, 10-12% and back up to 15-20% for FY27. Actual annual growth ranged from -3.80% (FY24) to +11.54% (FY26) through FY26, with Q1 FY27 at 37.08% YoY.
43. Pantoprazole - ₹150 cr topline, 2.5-3 years gestation Pending - At the Q2 FY21 call, management guided Pantoprazole gestation of 2.5-3 years to full capacity with full-fledged topline contribution of \~₹150 cr. Capacity moved from 180 MT to 276 MTPA with expansion in FY26, but no ₹150 cr revenue figure has been disclosed in our record.
44. Metformin - ₹250 cr revenue, 10% of revenues Delivered - At the Q2 FY21 call, management expected \~₹250 cr revenue from Metformin with the new 7,200 MT/annum plant after 6-8 months of customer qualification, making it \~10% of revenues. Metformin was \~16-17% of total revenue in Q3 FY22, implying \~₹350-375 cr, with utilization above 90% in Q2 FY23 and Q1 FY26 at 7,200 MTPA capacity.
45. Capex - ₹150-200 cr annually, funded internally, no debt Delivered - At the Q2 FY21 call, management guided capex of ₹150-200 cr every year for the next two years, funded entirely from internal accruals with no debt, later revised through \~₹150 cr sustained, \~₹250 cr FY23, ₹150-200 cr FY24-25, ₹200 cr FY25 and ₹150 cr FY26, ₹130-135 cr FY26 and ₹200-250 cr FY27. Actual capex ran ₹112 cr FY21, ₹220 cr FY23, ₹246 cr FY24, ₹232 cr FY25 and ₹164 cr FY26, with the company debt-free throughout.
46. Gabapentin - US market first, 600 MT capacity, ₹150-180 cr revenue Partial - At the Q2 FY21 call, management said Gabapentin would target the US market first using a novel China-free CDA-free process, with 600 MT/annum capacity and \~₹150-180 cr revenue at full volume as the number three product; commercialization was set for June-July 2021, delayed by COVID to Q3 FY22, and by Q4 FY24 the project was converted to a multiproduct plant with campaign-basis production only. Gabapentin CEP was issued by EDQM in 2024, but no dedicated plant or revenue figure exists in our record.
47. Ibuprofen dependence reduction - 50:50 pharma mix On track - At the Q2 FY21 call, management targeted reducing Ibuprofen dependence to 50:50 in the long term, with turnover dependence falling to 50% in "coming two years to three years"; the horizon was repeatedly reset, most recently to \~50% of pharma revenue in the near term and 50-55% of the API segment by FY29. Ibuprofen's share of pharma fell from 82% in FY21 to 63% in FY26, with non-ibuprofen at 43% of pharma revenue in Q1 FY27.
48. New-product portfolio turnover - \~₹300 cr in 1-2 years Partial - At the Q2 FY21 call, management targeted new-product portfolio turnover of \~₹300 cr "in one year or two years' time", with later non-ibuprofen targets of ₹330-350 cr FY22, \~₹500 cr FY23 and ₹500-550 cr FY24, revised down to \~₹450 cr. FY22 non-ibuprofen revenue was \~₹350 cr, FY23 ₹476 cr and FY24 ₹431 cr, with management acknowledging the FY24 miss due to price falls; Q1 FY27 crossed a ₹200 cr quarterly run rate at 43% of pharma revenue.