1. Pretilachlor 8,500-ton expansion in place by August 2025 Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, D.K. Jain guided the Pretilachlor 8,500-ton expansion to be in place by August (Q2 FY26), later slipping to "15-20 days" as of Q2 FY26 and December 2025 at Q3 FY26. The 8,500 MT expansion was commissioned in March 2026, roughly seven months after the August 2025 deadline.
2. Debt-free position maintained in FY26 and next year Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management was "firmly committed" to a debt-free position funded from internal accruals in FY26 and the next year, later qualifying this with nominal borrowings for the subsidiary. FY26 saw a \~₹27 cr term loan for the subsidiary and long-term borrowing of ₹31 cr, with D/E at 0.1x.
3. FY26 revenue of \~₹1,000 cr with 18-20% EBITDA margin Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided \~₹1,000 cr revenue for FY26 with 18-20% EBITDA margin, reiterated with "full confidence" at Q2 FY26. FY26 revenue was ₹1,078 cr with EBITDA margin of 18.0% - revenue exceeded the target and margin landed at the band's lower end.
4. EBITDA margins of 16-18% for coming 2-3 quarters Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, D.K. Jain guided EBITDA margins "should remain between 16% to 18%" for the coming 2-3 quarters. Q4 FY25 came in at 16%, Q1 FY26 at 18.4% and Q2 FY26 at 18.3%, all within or above the band.
5. Inventory days normalized to 120-130 by March 2025 Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, the CFO expected inventory days, then \~150, to normalize to 120-130 by March 2025. Instead, inventory stood at \~170 days in Q3 FY25 and working capital at \~250 days in Q4 FY25.
6. Formulation business growth of more than 20% every year Partial - At the Q2 FY25 call, management planned formulation growth of more than 20% every year, and at Q4 FY25 said >20% compounding was maintained. FY25 formulations revenue rose 49% to ₹280 cr, but FY26 growth fell to 11% at ₹311 cr.
7. Two-three blocks per year at Hamirpur; ₹200-300 cr additional spend; ₹700-800 cr revenue in 3-4 years Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management planned two-three blocks per year at Hamirpur, another ₹200-300 cr of spend and ₹700-800 cr revenue after three-four years; by Q1 FY27 this was 2 blocks a year toward 8-10 blocks and ₹1,000 cr in four years. As of Q1 FY27 only 2 of 10 blocks were operational.
8. First Hamirpur block commissioned Q1 FY26; second in Q2 FY26 Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management said the first 300-tonne Hamirpur block would be commissioned in Q1 FY26 and the second in Q2 FY26; the second was later pushed to August-September 2026 and then September-October 2026. The first block was operational only by Q3 FY26 and the second was still under construction as of Q4 FY26.
9. Formulation capacity increased by 30-40% within a month Partial - At the Q1 FY25 call, S.P. Gupta said formulation capacity would rise 30-40% "within this month or next month". The increase came in Q2 FY26, from 6,500 MT to 10,000 MT (\~54%), exceeding the target but about a year after the stated window.
10. Gross margin of 43-44% for next year Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, the CFO targeted gross margin of 43-44% for the next year, FY25. FY25 gross margin was 45.6%, above the guided range.
11. Total capacity to double in coming 2-3 years Missed - At the Q2 FY24 call, Anand Agarwal said total capacity, then 26,000 MT, was expected to double with added blocks at Sandila and Hamirpur, hoping "in coming 2-3 years, we are going to do wonders". Capacity as of Q1 FY27 was 28,300 MT technical, a \~9% increase.
12. Destocking over in another 3-4 months Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, the CEO expected destocking to be over within another three to four months. At Q2 FY24 destocking was still expected to run another 1-2 quarters, and channel inventory was still declining at Q4 FY24.
13. At least 15% revenue growth in FY25 Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, the CEO guided at least 15% revenue growth in FY25, refined to 15-20% at Q4 FY24 and Q1 FY25. FY25 revenue was ₹843 cr, up 21.3% YoY.
14. No significant further inventory losses beyond 1-2% Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, the CFO stated no significant further inventory losses beyond possibly 1-2%. Q2 FY24 carried a \~₹6 cr inventory loss after ₹17 cr in Q1 FY24, totaling ₹22 cr on sales of ₹400 cr, \~5.5%.
15. FY24 top-line growth of \~10% Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, the CFO guided top-line growth of around 10% for FY24. FY24 revenue instead declined 22.6% to ₹696 cr.
16. FY25 revenue of \~₹1,200 cr maximum Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, D.K. Jain said \~₹1,200 cr revenue should be achieved "in the FY25, maximum"; this was later re-expressed as 15-20% FY25 growth. FY25 revenue was ₹843 cr.
17. US-registered thiocarbamate herbicide - \~₹50 cr potential, first sale by August 2023 Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, D.K. Jain flagged a US-registered thiocarbamate herbicide with \~₹50 cr potential, \~₹15 cr in year one, first sale by August 2023; at Q1 FY24 a client ordered \~₹20 cr for FY24. Orders had started with part supply by Q4 FY25, but no disclosure confirms the August 2023 first sale or ₹50 cr run-rate.
18. FY24 EBITDA margin of 23-25% Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, S.P. Gupta projected FY24 EBITDA margin of 23-25%; this was cut to around 20% at Q1 FY24 and 20-22% at Q2 FY24. FY24 EBITDA margin was 14.6%.
19. \~₹250 cr incremental turnover in FY24 from new capacities/products Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, S.P. Gupta expected around ₹250 cr of incremental turnover in FY24 from new capacities and products. FY24 revenue fell by ₹202 cr versus FY23, so no increment materialized.
20. Two more intermediates for backward integration Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, management said it was working on two more intermediates for backward integration to cut import dependence. One intermediate plant was commissioned in Q1 FY25 for a key fungicide and the PEDA intermediate expanded in FY26; both being completed is not evidenced.
21. Hamirpur product pipeline - at least 15 products over 4-5 years, 50% gross margin, 25% EBITDA margin Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management planned at least 15 Hamirpur products over four-five years with 50% gross and minimum 25% EBITDA margins; margins were progressively cut to 46-47%, then 43-44% gross and 16-18% EBITDA. Hamirpur launched its first technical product in FY26, with the 15-product pipeline and original margins not evidenced.
22. Revenue of \~₹1,000 cr this year end; more in FY24 Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management expected turnover of around ₹1,000 cr by FY23 year-end and more in FY24. FY23 revenue was ₹898 cr and FY24 revenue ₹696 cr.
23. Hamirpur production start by Q4 FY24 Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management said that if EC was received by 15 November 2022, production could "start something by Q4 2024", reaffirmed across subsequent quarters. Formulation production started in March 2024 and the first block reached commercial production in Q4 FY24.
24. High-cost inventory consumed in Q3 FY23 Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, the CFO said the entire high-cost inventory (55% as on 30 September) would be consumed in Q3 FY23; this slipped to Q4 FY23 and then Q1-Q2 FY24. Inventory losses of ₹17 cr in Q1 FY24 and ₹6 cr in Q2 FY24 confirmed it persisted into FY24.
25. Gross margins stabilize around 50%, improving gradually in next two quarters Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management expected gross margins to stabilize around 50% over the next two quarters; the target was cut to 46-47% at Q3 FY23 and 43-44% by Q2 FY24. Gross margin was 46% in Q4 FY23, 42.8% in FY24, 45.6% in FY25 and 46.2% in FY26 - never 50%.
26. New molecules contribution at least ₹100 cr by FY23 year-end Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management expected new molecules to contribute at least ₹100 cr by FY23 year-end. New products contributed \~₹120 cr in FY23.
27. Remaining two of eight new molecules launched in FY23 Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management said the remaining two of eight new molecules would be launched during the rest of the fiscal year. Seven were launched by Q3 FY23, with one more under construction and planned to launch soon; the eighth FY23 launch is not evidenced.
28. Quantity growth of 15-20% for existing products in FY23 Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided quantity growth of around 15-20% for existing products in the coming year. Q1 FY23 volumes grew 21% and Q2 FY23 \~32%, though Q3 FY23 was 8%.
29. Herbicide launch next quarter (\~₹60 cr potential); intermediate in \~4 months (\~₹60-70 cr) Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided one herbicide launch next quarter with \~₹60 cr potential and one intermediate in about four months with \~₹60-70 cr potential. A herbicide launched in Q4 FY22 with \~₹50 cr potential, and a Pretilachlor intermediate plant was commissioned in the last week of March 2022 with \~₹100 cr potential.
30. \~25% top-line growth for FY23 and FY24 Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management affirmed confidence in \~25% top-line growth for FY23 and FY24, later softened to 20-25% for the coming years and at least 15% FY25 growth. FY23 revenue grew 23.2% to ₹898 cr, but FY24 fell 22.6% to ₹696 cr.
31. FY24 revenue of ₹1,100-1,200 cr from existing plants Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management endorsed ₹1,150-1,250 cr by FY24 as "reasonably right", confirmed as ₹1,100-1,200 cr excluding Hamirpur, and held it "definitely" through Q4 FY23. FY24 revenue was ₹696 cr; ₹1,078 cr was reached only in FY26.
32. Pretilachlor backward integration - import component below 15%, \~30% margin Partial - At the Q3 FY22 call, management said Pretilachlor backward integration would cut the import component below 15% once in-house production started, with a \~30% target margin sustaining. The first 2,000 MT phase was commissioned in Q1 FY23 and Pretilachlor crossed ₹100 cr in FY25, but margins are described as slightly below company average and the <15%/30% figures are not evidenced.
33. Dividend payout ratio of 5-15% of PAT Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management stated the board-revised dividend policy set a payout ratio of 5-15% of PAT. A ₹0.75 per share dividend was paid for FY23 (\~6% of ₹143 cr PAT) and again for FY26 (\~7% of ₹120 cr PAT).
34. Hamirpur intermediates production from Q2 FY24 Missed - At the Q3 FY22 call, management planned Hamirpur intermediates production from Q2 FY24 with technicals thereafter; timelines slipped repeatedly, to Q4 FY24, then Q3 FY25, then Q1 FY26. Formulation production started March 2024 and technical production only in FY26 - intermediates by Q2 FY24 was not achieved.
35. Hamirpur environmental clearance - approval in \~4-6 months Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management expected the Hamirpur EC TOR in one month and approval another 4-5 months later, with the date refined to September-October and then November 2022. EC was granted in November 2022 in the first go.
36. New herbicide launch by \~March 2022; three more products in Q2 FY23 Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided a new herbicide launch by \~March 2022, an insecticide soft-launched January 2022, and three more products in pipeline for Q2 FY23. The herbicide launched in Q4 FY22, five products were launched in FY22, and five of eight IPO molecules were live by March 2022.
37. 9,000 MT Sandila capacity expansion to 28,500 MT - by H2 FY23 Missed - At the Q3 FY22 call, management targeted a 9,000 MT Sandila expansion from 19,500 MT to 28,500 MT, with the remaining 7,500 MT in the coming six months; completion was then pushed to end FY23 and beyond via successive revisions. Capacity reached 24,000 MT in FY23 and peaked at 26,000 MT in Q2 FY24 before being restated to \~22,100 MT at Sandila - 28,500 MT was never reached.
38. Customer dependence to come down Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management said customer dependence would "certainly come down" as the bouquet widened. Top-10 customer revenue share moved from 55% in FY22 and 61% in FY23 down to 48%, 43% and 40% in FY24-FY26.
39. Formulation presence expanded to Pan India Partial - At the Q1 FY22 call, management said it wanted to grow formulation presence to Pan India from 15 states. Distribution reached 18 states by FY26, with full Pan India coverage not evidenced.
40. Technical/formulation split maintained at \~78:22 Missed - At the Q1 FY22 call, management said the split would stay around 78% technicals and 22% formulations growing at the same rate, reiterated at Q2 FY23. The mix ran 76:24 in FY22, 80:20 in FY23, then 72:28, 66:34 and 71:29 across FY24-FY26, shifting materially toward formulations.
41. New site revenue from third year onwards Partial - At the Q1 FY22 call, management said new site revenue would come in the third, fourth and fifth years from then; the timeline was repeatedly re-phased, landing on Shalvis contribution from Q1 FY26 and ₹50-60 cr for FY27 by Q1 FY27. The first block was commissioned in Q4 FY24 and formulation production began March 2024, but technical revenue only started FY26 at \~₹4-5 cr.
42. Revenue CAGR of 2.5-3x over next 2-3 years; ₹150 cr capex generating ₹300 cr in third year Missed - At the Q1 FY22 call, Anand Swarup Agarwal projected a 2.5-3x CAGR over two-three years from ₹150 cr capex; guidance was later stepped down through 20-25%, 15-20% and finally lower single-digit FY27 growth. Revenue went ₹729 cr (FY22), ₹898 cr (FY23), ₹696 cr (FY24), ₹843 cr (FY25), ₹1,078 cr (FY26) - roughly 1.6x over five years.
43. Capex of ₹70 cr FY22 and ₹80 cr FY23 at existing site; ₹300-350 cr new site over 2-3 years Partial - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided ₹70 cr capex at Sandila in FY22, about ₹80 cr next year at the existing site and ₹300-350 cr for the new site over two-three years; the new-site plan was re-phased repeatedly down to ₹45-90 cr/year ranges. FY22 capex of ₹70 cr, FY23 ₹68 cr and FY24 \~₹77 cr were executed, but Hamirpur spend reached only \~₹15 cr by Q2 FY25.
44. Technical capacity increase of at least 20% in 2022 Missed - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided technical capacity, indexed to 100, to rise at least 20% in 2022 with further increases in 2023. Capacity rose from 19,500 MT to 21,500 MT in FY22 (\~10%) and to 24,000 MT by end FY23.
45. New molecule revenue targets - ₹80-100 cr and ₹30-35 cr by next year Partial - At the Q1 FY22 call, D.K. Jain guided one of two new molecules to at least ₹80-100 cr by next year and the other to at least ₹30-35 cr. New products collectively contributed \~₹120 cr in FY23, but product-level disclosures confirming the individual targets are not evidenced.
46. Exports maintained at 50-60% of topline Missed - At the Q1 FY22 call, S.P. Gupta said exports would remain around 50-60% of topline; the target was later reset to a 50:50 mix and then \~40-45% exports. Exports ran 45% in FY22, 53% in FY23, then 39%, 37%, 38% and 35% through FY26-Q1 FY27.
47. Capacity expansion at existing plants - commissioned by February/March 2022 Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided new plants at existing sites to be commissioned by February, "maximum by March end". A 2,000 MT capacity soft-launch took technical capacity to 21,500 MT in FY22 and a Pretilachlor intermediate plant was commissioned in the last week of March 2022.
48. Two new technical products - full revenue effect by March 2022 Partial - At the Q1 FY22 call, management said the two newly launched technicals' full-fledged revenue effect would come by March next year (Q4 FY22). The two products generated \~7-8% of 9M FY22 sales pending backward integration, and no disclosure isolates their full revenue effect by March 2022.
49. Margins sustained in 28-30% range - medium term Missed - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided margins to hold around 28-29% in the medium term, with S.P. Gupta "quite confident" of sustaining that range. Guidance was reset repeatedly, from 26-29% to 18-20% and finally 15-16% sustainable by Q1 FY27. EBITDA margin fell from 31.1% in FY22 to 14.6% in FY24, recovering to 18.0% in FY26 and 15.4% in Q1 FY27.