1. FY26 PAT - ₹700 cr Missed - At the Q3 FY26 PPT (Feb 2026), management guided the company is targeting a PAT of ₹700 cr for FY26. FY26 consolidated PAT was ₹592 cr (SQL; D20 p.13, p.20), \~₹108 cr short of the ₹700 cr target.
2. FY26 revenue - ₹10,000-11,000 cr Missed - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided consolidated operating revenue in the range of \~₹10,000-11,000 cr for FY26. FY26 consolidated revenue was ₹9,071 cr (SQL; D20 p.13, p.20), below the ₹10,000 cr lower end of the guided range.
3. Algerian project - completion by December 2025 Missed - In the FY25 annual report, the Algerian project (construction of second line and upgradation of existing lines, Oued sly to Yellel) was expected to be completed by December 2025. As of 13 July 2026, the deadline has passed and the SQL snapshot records no disclosure of full completion, while the FY25 annual report had noted 4 km of track and other works still pending.
4. USBRL project - commissioning in FY24 Partial - In the FY23 annual report, the USBRL project was targeted for commissioning in FY 2023-24. USBRL project was completed and handed over; the Basindadhar-Sangaldan section (17 km) was commissioned on 27 Jun 2024, completing IRCON's entire scope, slightly beyond the FY24 target.
5. Doubling of turnover from \~₹10,000 cr to \~₹20,000 cr in 4-5 years (by FY28) Pending - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided turnover would double in the next 4 to 5 years, later reiterated as doubling revenue from ₹10,000 cr to ₹20,000 cr over four to five years from FY23 to FY28. FY23 revenue was ₹10,368 cr and FY26 revenue was ₹9,071 cr (SQL); the FY28 target horizon has not yet ended, so the outcome remains pending.
6. FY25 revenue - flattish / similar levels to FY24 Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided FY25 revenue will be at similar levels to FY24, later revised at Q3 FY25 to standalone turnover in the range of ₹10,000-11,000 cr. FY25 consolidated revenue was ₹10,760 cr (SQL), down \~14% from FY24's ₹12,514 cr, a decline rather than flattish.
7. FY24 other income - ₹520-550 cr Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management guided other income (including HAM annuity) for FY24 will be "in the range of 520 to 550" crore, later revised at Q3 FY24 to \~₹500 cr. FY24 other income was a little more than ₹500 cr, including \~₹20-30 cr one-off from South Africa and \~₹10-15 cr from income tax refunds, with core other income in the guided range.
8. FY24 revenue growth - 5-10% over FY23 (later revised to \~15%) Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided FY24 consolidated revenue growth of 5-10% over FY23, later revised upward through Q4 FY23, Q1 FY24, and Q2 FY24 to "close to about 15%". FY24 consolidated revenue was ₹12,514 cr (SQL), representing \~16.4% growth over FY23's ₹10,750 cr, exceeding the most recent \~15% guidance.
9. PAT margins - 7-7.5% sustainable Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided PAT margins will be in the region of 7-7.5%, a range reiterated through Q3 FY24 before being revised downward to 6-7% at Q2 FY26. Consolidated PAT margins were 7.81% in FY22, 7.12% in FY23, 7.22% in FY24, then fell to 6.5% in FY25 and 6.2% in FY26.
10. All coal projects - CODs in 2-3 years (by \~2025) Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided completion of all coal projects (CODs) will be a matter of another two to three years. As of Q4 FY26, CERL Phase 1 is operational but with balance work pending; CERL Phase 2 is under construction; other coal JVs are at various stages, with not all having achieved COD.
11. MCRL - completion in FY23 Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided MCRL is another project that should be completed in FY23. MCRL Phase 1 (Angul-Balaram section, 14 km) was completed and commissioned; coal rakes started moving.
12. CERL Phase 1 - completion by Sep-Dec 2022 Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided CERL Phase 1 (Chhattisgarh East Railway Limited) should be completed between September to December 2022. CERL Phase 1 main line was operational with coal rakes moving by Q2 FY23, but the spur line (balance work) was still pending as of FY26, targeted for Dec 2025, \~3 years late.
13. Sustainable core EBITDA margin - \~8% (7-10% range) Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided sustainable core EBITDA margin going forward to be in the range of around 8% (7% to 10% range). Standalone core EBITDA margins were 5.88% in FY23 and 6.39% in FY24, then fell to 4.7% in FY25 and 4.2% in FY26, remaining below the 7% floor throughout the period.
14. Road project investments - ₹4,000-5,000 cr over two years (debt + equity) Pending - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided total investment in road projects over the next two years will be "about Rs.4000 to Rs.5000 crore" (debt plus equity). Our record holds no aggregate debt+equity investment figure for road projects over FY23-FY24; the outcome cannot be verified.
15. Annual order inflow of ₹10,000-15,000 cr Missed - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided order inflow target is "between Rs.10,000 and 15,000 crores" per year, a range reiterated through Q1 FY25. FY23: \~₹500 cr orders won; FY24: \~₹1,000 cr; FY25: \~₹2,600 cr; FY26: \~₹5,000 cr; no year reached even the lower end of the range.
16. Order book of \~₹50,000 cr in five years (by \~Dec 2026) Pending - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided an internal target of reaching "about Rs.50,000 crore order book in the next five years". As of 31 Mar 2026, the order book stood at ₹24,984 cr, with the five-year horizon from Dec 2021 not yet elapsed.
17. IRSDC equity recovery - with some profit Pending - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided the company expects to get back its equity from IRSDC "maybe with some profit" after the winding-up valuation is completed. As of the latest available evidence, no recovery amount or completion of the winding-up process has been disclosed.
18. One or two foreign projects secured within FY22 Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided the company expects to secure one or two good foreign projects within FY22, possibly in Myanmar or Bangladesh. In Q4 FY22, Ircon won an international order of \~₹1,800 cr in Myanmar (a road project under MEA line of credit).
19. Bandra land development - \~₹3,200 cr revenue potential Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided the Bandra land development could generate "about Rs.3200 crores of revenue from the long-term lease or sale of the plot," subject to final approvals. The project did not materialise; Ircon exited the transaction, receiving only ₹25 cr as a fee - full and final settlement.
20. Noida and Gurgaon commercial properties - leased out by end of 2022 or 2023 Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided the Noida and Gurgaon commercial properties (total investment \~₹518 cr) are expected to be leased out, with better market conditions hoped for "towards the end of this year or next year". By Q2 FY23 (Sep 2022), both properties had been leased out - one to a mall operator, another to GST - with lease rentals being received.
21. Quarterly dividend going forward Partial - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided the company plans to pay a dividend quarterly going forward, following DIPAM's preference. FY22 saw interim dividends of ₹0.45 (Q1), ₹0.70 (Q2), ₹0.70 (Q3) and final dividend of ₹0.65 - effectively quarterly; thereafter, the practice shifted to semi-annual/irregular.
22. Net profit margins - 8.8-9% for Q3 & Q4 FY22 Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided net profit margins for the next two quarters (Q3 & Q4 FY22) should be "8.8% to 9%". Q3 FY22 standalone PAT margin was 7.93% (PAT ₹130 cr / revenue ₹1,639 cr) and Q4 FY22 was 8.20% (PAT ₹242 cr / revenue ₹2,953 cr); both fell below the 8.8% floor.
23. High Speed Rail viaduct JV - \~5-6% PAT margin Pending - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided the High Speed Rail viaduct JV project (₹3,429 cr, Ircon share \~50%) will yield "about 5% to 6% return" (PAT margins). Our record holds no project-level PAT margin disclosure for this JV; the project is in execution with no margin read available.
24. High Speed Rail track project - \~₹1,000 cr revenue from second year onward Partial - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided the ₹5,100 cr High Speed Rail track project would generate "around Rs.1000 crores" revenue from the second year onward. As of Q4 FY24, management confirmed about ₹1,000 cr of the project had been executed, indicating revenue generation had commenced.
25. Solar project - JV partner buy-back at \~14% equity IRR Pending - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided the JV partner (Ayana/IIFL) has assured a buy-back of Ircon's equity at a pre-agreed equity IRR of "around 14%". Our record holds no disclosure of the buy-back being exercised or the IRR being realised; the buy-back trigger is likely tied to completion or a future date.
26. 500 MW solar project - commissioning within 36 months (by \~Sep 2024) Partial - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided the 500 MW solar project (cost \~₹2,579 cr) will be set up in "3 years' time, 36 months," later revised to commissioning by June 2024, August 2024, and finally September 2025. As of Q4 FY25 (Mar 2025), 300 MW out of 500 MW had been connected and synchronised with the grid; full 500 MW not confirmed in our record.
27. FY23 revenue \~₹10,000 cr Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, management reiterated the earlier FY23 revenue guidance of "around Rs.10,000 crores," noting it was "still achievable," with the range later revised to ₹9,000-9,500 cr at Q3 FY23. FY23 consolidated revenue was ₹10,750 cr, exceeding the original ₹10,000 cr target.
28. FY22 standalone revenue >₹6,000 cr and PAT \~₹480 cr Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided FY22 standalone revenue of "more than Rs.6000 crores at least" and PAT of "around Rs.480 crores odd," stating "we should be able to exceed that". FY22 standalone revenue was ₹7,380 cr and PAT was ₹592 cr, both exceeding the guided thresholds.