1. Jindal Star renewed contract - join operations early next year Delivered - In the FY22 annual report, Jindal Star was guided to complete its current ONGC contract by November 2022 and join operations under the renewed 3-year contract early next year, i.e. FY23. The rig was deployed on 10 July 2023 on the new ONGC contract.
2. FY25 EBITDA - significant growth expected Delivered - In the FY24 annual report, the MD expected "significant growth in EBITDA this year" for FY25 on the back of cost-management efforts. FY25 EBITDA came in at ₹237 cr versus ₹204 cr in FY24, a 16% rise, with management reporting standalone EBITDA of ₹293.80 cr, up 44%.
3. ONGC legal dispute - no material negative impact expected Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said it does not expect any material negative impact from the ONGC legal dispute, assessing the chance of losing as remote. The case remains pending in the Supreme Court after 14-15 years, with roughly ₹163 cr at stake if lost and no case timeline.
4. Next few quarters - as good as previous quarters Missed - At the Q2 FY26 call, management expected the next few quarters to be as good as the previous ones, excluding the one-time other income item. Q3 FY26 EBITDA fell to ₹72 cr and Q4 FY26 to ₹78 cr, versus ₹93 cr in Q2 FY26, before Q1 FY27 recovered to ₹104 cr.
5. Effective tax rate - lower than 25% Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided the effective tax rate to be lower than 25%, helped by accelerated depreciation on the rig acquisition. FY26 tax of ₹59 cr on PBT of ₹232 cr gave \~25.4%, with Q4 FY26 at \~27.3% and Q1 FY27 at \~25.4%.
6. All rigs 100% operational in March 2025 quarter Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management said all rigs would be 100% operational in the March 2025 quarter, the first time in maybe 7 to 9 years. Q4 FY25 had all 5 rigs deployed with Jindal Supreme working the full quarter, lifting revenue 4% QoQ to ₹264 cr.
7. Q4 FY25 revenue - higher than ₹239 cr Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management guided Q4 FY25 revenue "will be higher than ₹239 cr, because Jindal Supreme will be working for 90 days". Q4 FY25 revenue from operations came in at ₹245 cr, above the guided floor.
8. Q3 FY25 earnings - full impact of Jindal Supreme as a base Partial - At the Q3 FY25 call, management said the December '24 quarter standalone EBITDA run rate "should be taken as a base for the next 4, 5 quarters", with further developments only adding to earnings. EBITDA held above the ₹81 cr base in Q4 FY25 (₹87 cr) and Q1 FY26 (₹107 cr), but slipped below in Q2 FY26 (₹93 cr) and Q3 FY26 (₹72 cr).
9. Q1 and Q2 FY25 earnings - lower than Q4 FY24 Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided Q1 and Q2 FY25 earnings lower than the March quarter since only 4 rigs would operate, with a pickup from Q3 onwards. Q1 FY25 revenue was ₹171 cr and Q2 FY25 ₹172 cr versus ₹198 cr in Q4 FY24, then Q3 FY25 rose to ₹239 cr with PAT of ₹65.95 cr.
10. Q4 FY24 revenue - higher than Q3 FY24 Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided Q4 FY24 revenue higher than Q3 FY24, as Virtue I would be deployed for the full quarter with all other rigs fully deployed. Q4 FY24 revenue from operations was ₹198 cr versus ₹183 cr in Q3 FY24, with total revenue of ₹209 cr.
11. Fleet expansion - increase fleet by 2-3 rigs per year Partial - At the Q2 FY24 call, management said it would "love to increase" the fleet by 2 to 3 rigs a year depending on ONGC tenders, rig availability and terms, with a 5-year vision to acquire more rigs. The fleet grew from 5 rigs to 6 with Jindal Pioneer in March 2025, but by Q2 FY26 no acquisitions were planned for FY27 or FY28.
12. Day rates - target 60s or higher in coming ONGC tenders Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management said it would "still be targeting the 60s or higher in the coming tenders", versus the \~35,000 rate just bid, and at Q2 FY26 aimed at "around the 60s" or 65. Jindal Pioneer, bid at $62,000/day, was pushed down and awarded at USD 47,681/day, while Jindal Explorer re-contracted at $35,606/day.
13. Three rigs dehiring in FY27 - refurbishment and redeployment Pending - At the Q2 FY26 call, management confirmed Discovery-I, Virtue-I and Jindal Star go for refurbishment in FY27, taking 4-6 months after contract end, and at Q1 FY27 remained "fairly confident" of redeployment with no revenue during refurbishment. The three dehires are scheduled for later FY27, with no redeployment contracts yet.
14. FY27 revenue and EBITDA - revenue \~₹900 cr, EBITDA ₹360-380 cr On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided FY27 revenue of almost ₹900 cr even with a couple of rigs dehiring, and FY27 EBITDA of ₹360 cr to ₹380 cr, replicating FY26 profitability. FY27 is unfinished: Q1 FY27 revenue was ₹275 cr and the order book shows 9M FY27 revenue of ₹563 cr, though H2 decline is expected from the three dehires.
15. FY26 revenue and EBITDA - revenue in excess of ₹925 cr, EBITDA ₹360-380 cr Partial - At the Q1 FY26 call, management estimated FY26 revenue above ₹925 cr and EBITDA of ₹360 cr to ₹380 cr as "very conservative projections"; the target was later revised down to around ₹350 cr at the Q3 FY26 call. FY26 revenue of ₹996.57 cr exceeded guidance, while EBITDA of ₹345.24 cr missed both the original range and the revised ₹350 cr guidance.
16. JV profit run-rate - normalized \~₹40 cr per quarter Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided JV profit to a normalized run rate of \~₹40 cr per quarter going forward, with latitude of "37, it can also mean 43" subject to exchange fluctuation. No quarter reached that level: Q3 FY25 was \~₹17 cr, Q4 FY25 share of associates ₹18.3 cr, and Q1 FY27 saw a \~₹5 cr JV loss on Jindal Pioneer refurbishment.
17. FY25 revenue - significantly improve upon FY24 Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided FY25 top line to "significantly improve upon" FY24 based on the order book, having said at Q2 FY24 that FY25 would see full 12-month operations of all rigs except Jindal Supreme. FY25 revenue was ₹828 cr versus ₹617 cr in FY24, a 34.19% increase.
18. Jindal Explorer redeployment - new ONGC contract after May 2025 dehire Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said Jindal Explorer would be de-hired in May 2025 and then get onto a new contract, later expecting redeployment in October 2025. The rig was dehired in May 2025 and redeployed in November 2025 at USD 35,606/day fixed for 3 years, a ₹319 cr order-book contract.
19. Jindal Pioneer redeployment - bring to India, refurbish, deploy with ONGC On track - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said Jindal Pioneer would be brought to India after its Mexico contract, refurbished for \~6 months, and deployed on ONGC work. The rig was dehired around October 2025, entered UAE refurbishment, and won a 3-year ONGC charter at USD 47,681/day from October 2026 worth ₹477 cr, targeted for Q3 FY27 deployment.
20. Jindal Pioneer acquisition - purchase of JV rig pending regulatory approval Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management detailed the Jindal Pioneer purchase at USD 75 million with \~USD 45 million net outflow and no new debt, wanting it done "as early as possible". After repeated delays, the acquisition closed on 5 March 2025 at USD 75 million, within the Q4 FY25 quarter management had committed to.
21. Jindal Supreme redeployment - new ONGC contract by November 2024 at higher rate Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management committed Jindal Supreme would be de-hired around end of April 2024, undergo \~6 months refurbishment, and be redeployed in November 2024 at an operating day rate of USD 88,859. The rig commenced ONGC operations on 15 October 2024 at USD 88,859 versus USD 40,700 previously, lifting Q3 FY25 revenue 39% QoQ to ₹254 cr.
22. EBITDA margin - maintain 30-35% going forward Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided an EBITDA margin of 30% to 35% "generally speaking", reiterated at 35% for FY26 and again at the Q1 FY27 call. FY26 EBITDA margin was 35.04% per reported financials (34.64% per management), with Q1 FY27 OPM at 37.64%, though Q3 and Q4 FY26 dipped below 30%.
23. Debt reduction - gross debt to reduce rapidly over next 12 months Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management guided that with all 5 rigs deployed at higher ONGC rates, debt would "reduce rapidly over the next 12 months", reiterated in the Q4 FY24 PPT. Gross debt fell from ₹282 cr in March 2024 to ₹139 cr by March 2025 and long-term borrowings were fully repaid by 31 March 2026, with gross debt at ₹52 cr by June 2026.