1. FY27 PAT - 15% growth matching top line On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided \~15% top line growth for FY27 with a matching 15% increase in bottom line. Q1 FY27 PAT declined 6% YoY to ₹97 cr; the horizon is not reached.
2. FY26 PAT - ₹400 cr-plus Partial - At the Q1 FY26 call, management said net profit will be around ₹400 cr-plus this year, with no exact figure committed. FY26 PAT was ₹387 cr, \~3% short of the indication.
3. ROCE - 20-21% by FY27 On track - At the Q2 FY24 call, management expected ROCE in the range of 20-21% by FY27 when revenue reaches \~$1 billion. ROCE was FY24 17.44%, FY25 18.62%, FY26 17.45%; Q1 FY27 ROCE is not disclosed in our record.
4. PSL Vizag investment property - monetization by Q2 FY27 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management expected the Vizag investment property to be out of the balance sheet by Q2 FY27, with expected "good profitability and ROI". As of Q1 FY27, a deal of ₹180 cr for 30 acres has been done, money expected in Q2/Q3.
5. Anand Nagar Saket - completion by October 2028 On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management intended to complete Anand Nagar Saket (8.5 km) by its scheduled date of October 2028. Anand Nagar Saket was \~15% completed as of Q1 FY27.
6. Chennai state package (₹580 cr) - completion by March 2027 On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management reiterated the Chennai state-government package (₹580 cr) will be completed/handed over by March 2027. The package was \~65% completed as of Q1 FY27.
7. Chennai Elevated Corridor - completion by March 2028 On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided Chennai elevated (NHAI) project completion by March 2028, with \~7 months' delay due to WRD approval to be added; at Q1 FY27 four NHAI packages were planned for completion by December 2028 with the extension granted. The project was \~20% executed overall as of Q1 FY27, with foundation and substructure work in line.
8. GMLR project - completion within 5 years (60 months) On track - At the Q4 FY24 call, management stated the GMLR timeline for completion is around 60 months, reaffirmed at Q4 FY25; at Q1 FY27 the internal target was June 2029, maximum December 2029, a prepone versus the entitled 2-year extension on the original contract of November 2028. Execution was at 26% as of Q1 FY27, with the first TBM fully assembled and \~4 km of tunnel segments cast.
9. Vision 2027 - order book ₹25,000 cr by FY27 On track - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided an order book of around ₹25,000 cr by FY27, reiterated at Q1 FY25, Q4 FY25 and in the Q4 FY24 PPT Vision 2027. The order book as of Q1 FY27 was ₹22,246 cr.
10. FY26 order book - \~₹23,000 cr by FY26-end Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management aimed to maintain an order book close to \~₹23,000 cr by end of FY26; at Q2 FY26 this was ₹20,000-23,000 cr by March 2026. The order book as of 31 March 2026 was ₹18,554 cr.
11. FY25 order book - ₹20,000-22,000 cr by FY25-end Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management intended to maintain the order book close to ₹20,000-22,000 cr at FY25 closing. The order book as of 31 March 2025 was ₹22,238 cr, at the top of the range.
12. EBITDA margin improvement - from 14-15% to 15-16% in 6-8 quarters Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided raising EBITDA margin from 14-15% to 15-16% in the coming 6-8 quarters, reiterated through Q2 FY26; later calls softened to "similar or better", an endeavor of 15-16% and intent to improve \~0.5-1%. Margins were FY24 14.4%, FY25 14.5%, FY26 14.4%, Q1 FY27 14.1% - the 15-16% band was not reached.
13. FY27 capex - \~₹150 cr per year for next 2 years On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided capex of ₹200-300 cr for FY27; at Q4 FY26 this became ₹200-250 cr for each of FY27 and FY28, and at Q1 FY27 \~₹150 cr per year for the next 2 years, being \~₹100 cr maintenance plus the balance of the ₹250-cr project capex. Q1 FY27 capex was ₹34 cr.
14. FY27 debt - below ₹800 cr by year-end On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided debt levels of ₹600-700 cr going ahead; at Q1 FY27 gross debt was guided not to go above the current ₹840 cr and to reduce to less than ₹800 cr by year-end. Gross debt at Q1 FY27 was ₹840 cr.
15. FY27 order inflow - ₹8,000-10,000 cr On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided FY27 order inflow of around ₹7,000-8,000 cr; at Q4 FY26 this was raised to ₹9,000-10,000 cr ("forget ₹9,000 cr, ₹10,000 cr we'll cross this year"p.8), then set at ₹8,000-10,000 cr at Q1 FY27. Q1 FY27 inflow was \~₹5,500 cr booked plus L1 of ₹1,500 cr, making \~₹7,000 cr.
16. FY27 EBITDA margin - 14-15% On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided FY27 EBITDA margins of 14-15%, reiterated at Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27. Q1 FY27 EBITDA margin was 14.1%, within the range.
17. FY27 revenue growth - \~15% to ₹6,500 cr+ On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided FY27 revenue growth of around 15%; at Q4 FY26 "we should be crossing ₹6,500 cr" on \~15% growth, reiterated at Q1 FY27 to \~₹6,500 cr. Q1 FY27 revenue grew 2% YoY to ₹1,511 cr.
18. FY26 capex - \~₹400 cr plus, total ₹550-600 cr over FY26-FY27 Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided FY26 capex of \~₹400 cr plus within a FY26-FY27 total of \~₹550-600 cr; at Q1 FY26 \~₹450-500 cr over 2 years, and at Q2 FY26 FY26 capex was raised to close to ₹500 cr. FY26 capex was \~₹400 cr, with 9M FY26 capex of ₹433 cr.
19. FY26 debt - peak \~₹900 cr, revised to ₹750-800 cr Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided peak debt of \~₹900 cr to be reached in FY26; at Q1 FY26 this was lowered to \~₹750-800 cr for FY26 and FY27, and at Q2 FY26 net debt of \~₹800 cr for FY26 year-end. Gross debt at FY26 year-end was ₹617 cr and net debt was negative ₹264 cr.
20. FY26 order inflow - ₹6,000-8,000 cr, revised to ₹5,000-6,000 cr Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided FY26 order inflow of ₹6,000-8,000 cr ("we are very sure"); at Q1 FY26 \~₹6,000 cr, revised down to ₹5,000-6,000 cr at Q2 FY26. FY26 order inflow was only \~₹1,000 cr, described as a deliberate margin-driven choice.
21. FY26 EBITDA margin - 14-15% Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided FY26 EBITDA margin of 14-15%, reiterated at Q1 FY26 and Q2 FY26. FY26 EBITDA margin was 14.4%, within the range.
22. FY26 revenue growth - \~15% to ₹6,500-6,600 cr Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided FY26 revenue growth of \~15% to ₹6,500-6,600 cr, reiterated at Q1 FY26; at Q2 FY26 this was softened to "surely achieve around ₹6,200-6,300 cr", and at Q3 FY26 to "maintain or surpass last year's top line" of \~₹5,700 cr. FY26 revenue was ₹5,723 cr, up 1% YoY.
23. FY25 capex - ₹450-500 cr over 2 years (FY25-FY26) Partial - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided capex of ₹450-500 cr over 2 years, mainly Chennai and GMLR, versus normal maintenance capex of ₹100-150 cr annually; at Q4 FY25 the ₹450-500 cr project window was extended to FY26-FY27 plus \~₹100 cr, total \~₹550-600 cr. FY25 capex was ₹241 cr and FY26 \~₹400 cr, combining to \~₹641 cr.
24. FY25 debt - ₹600-650 cr, revised to ₹700-750 cr Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 debt of around ₹600-650 cr; at Q1 FY25 this was raised to ₹700-750 cr for FY25 and FY26. Gross debt at FY25 year-end was ₹696 cr, with current debt at the Q4 FY25 call \~₹700 cr.
25. FY25 order inflow - ₹6,000-8,000 cr, minimum ₹8,000 cr Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 order inflow of ₹6,000-8,000 cr; at Q1 FY25 this was raised to "crossing ₹8,000 cr" as the minimum, possibly ₹10,000 cr. FY25 order inflow was ₹4,700 cr; \~₹4,200 cr of L1 projects could not materialize in FY25.
26. FY25 EBITDA margin - 14-15% Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 EBITDA margin of 14-15%, reiterated at Q1 FY25. FY25 EBITDA margin was 14.5%, within the range.
27. FY25 revenue growth - 15-16% to ₹5,600-5,700 cr Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 revenue growth of around 15-16%, i.e. revenue of ₹5,600-5,700 cr, reiterated at Q1 FY25. FY25 revenue grew 17% to ₹5,693 cr, at the top of the range.
28. FY24 debt - ₹550-600 cr, revised to \~₹650 cr Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided debt of ₹550-600 cr by year-end FY24; at Q2 FY24 this was raised to around ₹650 cr by March 2024 and held at \~₹650 cr at Q3 FY24. Gross debt at FY24 year-end was ₹576 cr; current debt at the Q4 FY24 call was ₹511 cr with gross debt-equity 0.22x.
29. FY24 capex - ₹150 cr, revised to \~₹250 cr, then reduced Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided FY24 capex of around ₹150 cr; at Q1 FY24 this was revised up to \~₹250 cr for Chennai and GMLR needs, back to \~₹150 cr at Q2 FY24, and slightly reduced with spill-over at Q3 FY24. FY24 capex was ₹210 cr, above the latest guidance.
30. FY24 order inflow - ₹8,000 cr, order book ₹15,000 cr by FY24-end Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided order inflow of around ₹8,000 cr for FY24, taking the order book to around ₹15,000 cr by year-end; at Q2 FY24 the order book was revised up to \~₹16,000 cr, and at Q3 FY24 inflow to ₹10,000-11,000 cr with order book ₹17,000-18,000 cr. FY24 inflow was ₹11,810 cr and the order book a record ₹21,011 cr as on 31 March 2024.
31. FY24 EBITDA margin - 14-15% Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided FY24 EBITDA margins of around 14-15%, reiterated at Q2 FY24 and Q3 FY24. FY24 EBITDA margin was 14.4%, within the range.
32. FY24 revenue growth - \~15% to ₹4,800 cr Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided \~15% revenue growth for FY24; at Q1 FY24 revenue was guided at \~₹4,800 cr with no revision despite new orders, reiterated at Q2 FY24 and Q3 FY24. FY24 revenue grew 16% to ₹4,879 cr.
33. Vision 2027 - $1 billion revenue by FY27 (₹7,500 cr+) Missed - At the Q4 FY21 call, management set a vision of ₹5,000 cr revenue by FY25; at Q2 FY23 this became a $1 billion revenue company by FY27, restated at Q1 FY24 as ₹7,500 cr-plus noting the original target was set at USD/INR 75-78 vs 82, and reaffirmed at Q4 FY25. At Q4 FY26 management acknowledged running one year behind and shifted the ₹7,500 cr target to FY28, confirmed at Q1 FY27; FY26 revenue was ₹5,723 cr and Q1 FY27 revenue ₹1,511 cr, up 2% YoY.
34. FY23 capex - ₹100-115 cr, revised to ₹125-150 cr Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided FY23 capex of close to ₹100-115 cr; at Q1 FY23 this was revised upward to ₹125-150 cr due to a new TBM, and at Q3 FY23 to \~₹150 cr at year-end. FY23 capex was ₹230 cr, mainly due to one additional TBM and a new casting yard.
35. FY23 order inflow - \~₹5,000 cr Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management targeted order inflows of close to ₹5,000 cr for FY23, reiterated at Q1 FY23, Q2 FY23 and at Q3 FY23 with "if not by Q4, by Q1 positively". FY23 order inflow was ₹2,652 cr, attributed to postponed tender submissions by departments.
36. FY23 EBITDA margin - 14-15% Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management committed to maintaining EBITDA margin of 14-15%, reiterated at Q1 FY23 and Q2 FY23. FY23 EBITDA margin was 14.2%, within the range.
37. FY23 revenue growth - 12-15% over FY22 Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided FY23 revenue growth of \~12-15% over FY22, declining to commit to 20-25%; guidance was later stated as ₹4,000 cr at Q1 FY23, raised to ₹4,000-4,200 cr at Q2 FY23 and reiterated at Q3 FY23. FY23 revenue grew 19% to ₹4,203 cr, above the top of the range.
38. PAT margin - 6-7% going forward Delivered - At the Q3 FY21 call, management committed to a PAT margin of 6-7% going forward, "as committed and guided before also", with FY22 net margin of 6-7% confirmed. PAT margins were FY22 5.8%, FY23 6.5%, FY24 6.7%, FY25 6.9%, FY26 6.8% and Q1 FY27 6.4%.
39. Working capital - maintain \~120 days Delivered - At the Q3 FY21 call, management committed to maintaining working capital at 120 days, "as we have guided before also", reiterated at Q4 FY21 and Q4 FY22; the target later moved to 120-125 days, 120-130 days and 100-110 days at Q1 FY27. Working capital days were 126 (Q4 FY23), 123 (FY24), 112 (FY25), 99 (FY26) and 103 (Q1 FY27).
40. Debt level - around ₹600 cr for FY21 and the year ahead Delivered - At the Q3 FY21 call, management guided debt of around ₹600 cr (not even ₹650 cr) for FY21 year-end and the year ahead. Gross debt was ₹574 cr by December 2020, FY21 gross debt ₹530 cr after reduction from ₹673 cr, and FY22 debt cut by a further ₹100 cr with net debt negative \~₹78 cr.
41. FY22 capex - ₹80-100 cr Partial - At the Q4 FY21 call, management guided FY22 capex of around ₹80-100 cr. FY22 capex was around ₹115 cr, above the guided ceiling.
42. FY22 order inflow - ₹4,000-5,000 cr; order book \~₹12,000 cr by FY22-end Partial - At the Q4 FY21 call, management guided FY22 order inflow of nearly ₹4,000-5,000 cr and an order book close to ₹12,000 cr by end of FY22. FY22 order inflow was ₹3,685 cr and the order book stood at ₹11,936 cr as on 31 March 2022.
43. FY22 EBITDA margin - 14-16% Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management guided FY22 EBITDA margins of around 14-16%, with the caveat that a third COVID wave could vary the outcome. FY22 EBITDA margin was 14.3%, within the range.
44. FY22 revenue guidance - ₹3,000-3,500 cr Delivered - At the Q3 FY21 call, management guided FY22 revenue of ₹3,500 cr; at Q4 FY21 this was widened to a conservative ₹3,000-3,500 cr, with management "very sure" of ₹3,500 cr absent a third COVID wave. FY22 revenue grew 37% to ₹3,527 cr, above the top of the range.
45. FY21 revenue guidance - ₹2,400-2,500 cr by FY21 year-end Delivered - At the Q3 FY21 call, management raised FY21 revenue guidance to ₹2,400-2,500 cr of work by year-end FY21, up from the earlier ₹2,000 cr guidance. FY21 revenue from operations came in at ₹2,571 cr, beating the raised guidance.