1. FY27-FY29 capex - ₹1,500 cr FY27, ₹2,000 cr FY28, ₹1,500 cr FY29 On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided capex of about ₹1,500 cr for FY27, about ₹2,000 cr for FY28 and ₹1,500 cr for FY29, \~₹5,000 cr over three years, excluding Kutch and Nagaur land. Q1 FY27 capex was \~₹300 cr spent; full-year FY27 is not yet complete.
2. Solar SPV - 42 MW captive solar, benefit from Q4 FY27 or Q1 FY28 On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided a 42 MW captive solar SPV with \~₹20 cr investment, fixed tariff ₹4.10/unit, and benefits from fag end of Q4 FY27 or "for sure" Q1 FY28. No outcome is available yet; the project is in implementation.
3. NECEM transaction - completion in Q4 FY26 Delivered - At the Q4 FY26 call, management stated the NECEM transaction would be completed "in this quarter only", with ₹10 cr non-compete fee and \~₹4 cr of capital induction outstanding. Liabilities were settled in March at \~₹12.5 cr and \~₹3.5 cr of ₹7.5 cr capital induction paid, with the transaction substantially completed in Q4 FY26.
4. Kutch and Nagaur - \~0.3 cr tons each by FY30 On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided Kutch and Nagaur Greenfields of \~0.2 cr tons clinker and 0.3 cr tons cement each, and at Q4 FY26 confirmed "Kutch is for sure FY30". Kutch's public hearing is done and environment clearance in process, while Nagaur land is partly acquired; by Q1 FY27 land acquisition was "slightly going slow".
5. Brand rejuvenation - Green Plus and LC3 launch Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management initiated a brand rejuvenation exercise expected to improve price positioning by ₹80 to ₹100 a ton, and at Q4 FY26 planned the rejuvenated Green+ and LC3 launches. Green Plus launched on 14 January 2025 and was received well in all markets, and GreenPro, India's first commercially available LC3 cement, was launched.
6. FY26 capex - ₹1,500 cr Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided capex of ₹1,500 cr for FY26. Actual spend was \~₹100 cr in Q1, \~₹250 cr in 1H and \~₹350 cr in 9M, with FY26 total expected at \~₹650-700 cr, less than half the original plan.
7. FY27 volume growth - similar to FY26, higher than industry On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided FY27 volume growth of "a similar kind of growth" as FY26, and at Q4 FY26 said the company would grow higher than industry, estimated \~6%. In Q1 FY27, industry demand grew \~8% with company capacity utilization at 76% and clinker utilization at 95%.
8. Cost reduction - ₹100-120 per ton over 12-18 months (FY26-FY27) On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided cost reduction of about ₹100 to ₹120 per ton over 12 to 18 months, later reiterated as "at least ₹120 of savings… we are on the track". By Q1 FY27, lead distance had fallen 20 km, translating to about ₹60-70 per ton benefit; Q4 FY26 EBITDA/ton was \~₹730.
9. FY26 volume growth - better than industry, \~10% at least Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided at least 10% volume growth in FY26 against industry at about 6-6.5%. FY26 cement sales volumes were approximately 1.33 crore tonnes, growth of around 10% over the previous year, versus industry FY26 demand growth of \~7%.
10. Durg conveyor belt project - approval and commissioning Pending - At the Q1 FY21 call, management said the East conveyor belt consent was expected in 2-3 quarters with commissioning in 10-12 months, and at Q4 FY25 the project was expected "by March of '26, hopefully". As of Q1 FY27, the proposed agreement was still lying with SAIL with \~₹170 cr balance expenditure, and the project is not commissioned.
11. FY25 volume growth - close to 10% plus Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 consolidated volume growth of "close to 10% plus". FY25 cement sales were 1.14 crore tonnes, up 3% y-o-y, with total cement and clinker sales of 1.21 crore tonnes.
12. TSR - 10% by FY24, 16% by FY25, 20% by 2030 Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, management planned to take AFR proportion from \~3.5% to 10% in 9 to 12 months, with Phase 2 to 16% next year and 20% by 2030. TSR reached 10.39% in FY25 against 4.11% in FY23, but FY26 TSR was 9%, Sirohi Phase 2 not yet taken up, and the 16% and 20% milestones remain open.
13. 3 crore tons capacity by 2030 (30x30) On track - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided brownfield and greenfield expansion toward a 3 crore ton capacity vision for 2030. Current capacity is \~1.8 cr tons, with Durg adding 0.46 cr tons by FY28, Northeast \~1.5 MT by FY29 and Kutch and Nagaur \~0.3 cr tons each by FY30 - a projected \~4.36 cr tons.
14. Northeast (Agrani/Assam) project - 1.5 MTPA, ₹1,800 cr, by FY27-FY29 On track - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided the Northeast project at ₹1,800 cr total with commissioning around March-April 2027, later pushed to FY28 and then one year after Durg, i.e. FY29. Two mines with \~25 cr tons reserves are secured as MDO with ₹130 cr paid, and a PIL over land is pending in Guwahati High Court.
15. Surat grinding unit expansion - 0.14 cr tons, by FY25 Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided Surat doubling from 0.15 to 0.27 cr tons, operational in FY25 "towards the end of the year, last quarter". The Surat grinding station was commissioned on 22 September 2025 with capacity now 1.8 cr tons and utilization >60% by Q4 FY26; only 0.14 cr tons was added, not the full 1.5 to 3.0 MMTPA doubling.
16. Durg expansion - 0.23 cr t clinker + 0.46 cr t cement, ₹2,500-3,000 cr, by FY26-FY28 On track - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided the Durg expansion of 0.23 cr tons clinker and 0.46 cr tons cement with first phase by March 2026 within ₹2,500 cr, later revised to ₹3,000 cr and completion by March 2028. Total capex is ₹3,000 cr with \~₹400 cr spent by Q1 FY27, major equipment ordered and excavation started.
17. Durg railway siding - Phase 1 by September 2024, Phase 2 by March 2026 Partial - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided the ₹325 cr Durg railway siding in two phases, first by September 2024 and second by March 2026. Phase 1 was operational by Q3 FY25, while Phase 2 slipped - revised to March '28 and contingent on SAIL collaboration, with no delay from the company's end.
18. 40 MW solar at Durg - captive route, 26% stake Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management was evaluating \~30-40 MW captive solar for the East, with the 40 MW project tied up by Q4 FY23. Solar power sourcing of 40 MW was tied up under the Captive Route for the Durg Cement Plant, and Durg's renewable share rose from 36% to 80% from October 2023.
19. Alwar wall putty plant - commissioning by October 2023 Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided commissioning of the \~1 lakh ton Alwar putty plant by October 2023 at ₹65-70 cr capex. Trials slipped due to the NCR construction ban, and the FY25 annual report confirms a new putty plant and white cement plant commissioned at Alwar, between April 2024 and March 2025.
20. FY24 volume growth - 19% (later revised to 12-15%) Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided FY24 consolidated cement sales volume growth of 19%, revised down to 12-15% at Q2 FY24. FY24 consolidated volumes grew about 5%, with 9M FY24 growth of 6.6%.
21. Trade share and blending ratio - increase by 4-5% in FY23 Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management targeted a blended cement mix increase of "at least 4%, 5% of the year" from \~55-56%, later raised to blended cement of 72-75%. FY23 closed at trade 55% and blended 55%, and blended share stayed \~62-67% thereafter, never reaching 75%.
22. FY23 volume growth - 7-8% Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management reiterated FY23 volume guidance of 7-8%. FY23 standalone cement sales were 102.05 lakh tons versus 91.16 lakh tons in FY22 - 12% growth - with consolidated cement growth of 11%.
23. EBITDA per tonne - ₹1,000/ton target Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management indicated targeting four-digit EBITDA per tonne "in the coming times" from \~₹800-850, later committed to \~₹1,000 by FY25 over 18-24 months. EBITDA per ton crossed ₹1,000 in Q3 FY24 and held there in Q4 FY24, though it later eased to \~₹976 in Q4 FY25 and \~₹730 in Q4 FY26.
24. Premium products - 30-35% of trade sales over 2-3 years Partial - At the Q1 FY22 call, management aimed to move premium products from \~25% of trade sales to 30-35% over the next 2-3 years, later reset to "27% by end of this year" at Q1 FY26. Premium share fluctuated between \~19% (Q3 FY25) and \~32% (Q4 FY21 in some markets), sitting at 26% in Q2 FY26.
25. Value-added products revenue - ₹500 cr target Partial - At the Q3 FY21 call, management targeted \~₹500 cr turnover from value-added products in FY22, a target reiterated through Q1 FY22. FY22 VAP revenue was ₹373 cr, and non-cement revenue reached ₹478 cr in FY23 before quarterly run-rates of \~₹130-185 cr through Q1 FY27.
26. UCWL-JKLC merger - deferred until MAT credit exhausted, \~2-4 years Delivered - At the Q2 FY21 call, management guided the UCWL-JKLC merger to take at least two years, tied to MAT credit exhaustion of 3-4 years, with completion later guided to H2 CY2025. The Composite Scheme of Amalgamation was approved by NCLT Jaipur on 12 June 2025, merging UCWL, HITCL and HDIL with JKLC, with appointed date 1 April 2024.
27. UCWL net debt-to-EBITDA - not exceed \~3x-3.5x once project EBITDA starts Delivered - At the Q2 FY21 call, management guided UCWL net debt-to-EBITDA to not exceed \~3x-3.5x once project EBITDA starts, a ceiling reiterated through FY26. Net debt-to-EBITDA was 1.24x at March 2025 and 1.12x at March 2026, well below the guided limit throughout.
28. Consolidated net debt - stay broadly around ₹1,200-1,300 cr over next three years (FY22-FY24) Partial - At the Q2 FY21 call, management guided consolidated net debt over the next three years to stay broadly around ₹1,200-1,300 cr, later affirming under ₹1,000 cr by end FY24. Net debt was ₹1,225 cr at March 2023 - within band - but rose to ₹1,750 cr by March 2025 as expansion capex accelerated.
29. UCWL expansion - 0.15 cr t clinker + 0.25 cr t grinding, ₹1,400-1,650 cr, by March 2024 Delivered - At the Q2 FY21 call, management guided the UCWL expansion of 0.25 crore tonne at \~₹1,400 cr with commissioning October-December 2023, later settled at clinker October 2023 and grinding March 2024. The clinkerization unit was commissioned in October 2023 and the 0.25 crore ton grinding station on 28 March 2024, at a total cost of ₹1,650 cr.
30. UCWL balancing project - clinker 1.2→1.5 MTPA, cement 1.6→2.2 MTPA by March 2021 Partial - At the Q2 FY21 call, management guided the UCWL balancing scheme expanding clinker from 0.12 to 0.15 crore tonnes and cement from 1.6 to 2.2 crore tonnes by March 2021. The project was completed in Q1 FY22, raising cement capacity to 2.2 million tons and clinker to 1.5 million tons, one quarter late.
31. Sirohi 10 MW waste heat recovery system - on stream Q2 FY22 Delivered - At the Q1 FY21 call, management expected the 10 MW WHR system at Sirohi/Jaykaypuram on stream in Q2 FY22, revised at Q2 FY21 to Q3 FY22. Trial runs commenced by Q3 FY22 and full benefit was realized in Q4 FY22, taking total WHR capacity at Sirohi to 25 MW.
32. Standalone net debt reduction - \~₹200 cr per year FY21 and FY22 Delivered - At the Q1 FY21 call, management expected another \~₹200 crores of net debt to be repaid in each of FY21 and FY22, reiterated at Q2 FY21. Standalone net debt fell from \~₹1,020 cr in March 2020 to \~₹400 cr in March 2021 and \~₹13 cr by March 2022, turning net debt free on a standalone basis by FY23.
33. Another 7 MW Solar Power Plant - planned in FY24 Partial - In the FY23 annual report, the company commissioned a 7 MW Solar Power Plant at Sirohi in FY23 and stated that another 7 MW Solar Power Plant was planned in the coming year. The sources do not confirm commissioning in FY24; a 7 MW Solar Power Plant was commissioned only in 2025, indicating late delivery.
34. 40 MW solar at Durg - captive route, 26% stake Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management said the 40 MW solar project with \~22 cr equity for 26% "should be ready by the fourth quarter", clarified as March 2024. The 40 MW was tied up under the Captive Route and Durg's renewable power share increased from 36% to 80% from October 2023.