Key Takeaways
- Flood-hit quarter, volume recovery promised: Q2 dispatches lost ~20,000-23,000 tons to Punjab floods, but management expects to recover those volumes in Q3 itself, targeting ~120,000 tons.
- DFT turned the corner on margins: The DFT segment swung from EBITDA-negative in Q1 to EBITDA-positive (INR3,500-INR4,000/ton) in Q2, lifting consolidated EBITDA/ton from INR2,300 to INR4,300.
- RC Industries acquisition adds a new leg: The acquired entity historically did INR2,000+ crores in topline, carries 7%-8% EBITDA margins, and will be consolidated from Q3, with meaningful contribution expected next year.
- Volume guidance held, revenue guidance refused: Management reaffirmed FY26 volume at 4.5-5 lakh tons and laid out a path to 0.1 crore tons by FY29, but declined to give revenue guidance, citing HRC price volatility.
- What to watch next quarter: Whether Q3 hits the ~120,000-ton target, the trajectory of DFT margins now that introductory discounting is over, and the initial contribution from RC Industries.
Volume & Demand Recovery
- Flood impact quantified: Punjab floods hampered Q2 dispatches by ~20,000-23,000 tons, the primary reason for the volume drop. Management expects to cover those lost volumes in Q3 itself.
- H2 demand outlook: Post-Diwali, prices saw a short blip that partially stuck; with no major holidays or weather disruptions ahead, demand is keen to pick up and H2 should be better.
- H1 revenue vs volume divergence: Consolidated H1 revenue declined 2.2% YoY despite 3.5% volume growth, reflecting the price and mix effects that make management reluctant to guide on revenue.
Pranav Singla: "we will cover up the same volumes in Q3 itself as well. And we'll be touching close to 120,000 tons of sales volume in Q2 and -- in Q3. And then following in Q4, we should be touching 140,000 to 150,000 tons of sales volume in Q4."
Margin Recovery & DFT Turnaround
- EBITDA per ton doubled QoQ: Consolidated EBITDA/ton recovered from INR2,300 in Q1 to INR4,300 in Q2, driven almost entirely by the DFT segment moving into positive territory.
- DFT mechanics: DFT was EBITDA-negative in Q1 because the company was introducing new SKUs at a discount to gain market entry. That phase ended in Q2, with DFT contributing INR3,500-INR4,000/ton, and healthy margins are expected in Q3 and Q4.
- VAP margin tailwind: Value-added galvanized pipes saw good margins in Q2 partly because flood-related shortages of lower-end products gave the company better pricing power, while higher-end products were pushed out after stockpiling.
- Full-year EBITDA/ton target: Management guided to INR4,000/ton for FY26, implying the Q2 run-rate is sustainable.
Dhruv Singla: "That phase has gone and our product is widely accepted and moreover sought after we've made our quality accepted in the market. So slowly and steadily, we are getting there."
RC Industries Acquisition
- What JTL bought: RC Industries produces phosphorus, bronze, copper and brass products, all fully value-added items. It will be a wholly owned subsidiary consolidated from Q3 onwards.
- Historical scale: RC Industries had a topline north of INR2,000 crores per year in the FY16-18 period, and management expects it to contribute good topline to JTL starting next year.
- Margin profile: Historical EBITDA margins were 7%-8%; management said they will assess what they can achieve under their own operations.
- Working capital light: 70%-71% of RC Industries' products are sold on cash, with only 15%-20% going to the dealer market on credit. Working capital sits at the subsidiary level and is not expected to be impactful on JTL at a consolidated scale.
Capacity Expansion: Maharashtra Plant
- Timeline: The narrow-width GI coil line is expected to start by mid-January; the color-coated plant, covering pipes, sheets and multiple SKUs, will come online by the end of H1.
- Scale: The Maharashtra location will have a single-location capacity of 0.14 crore tons, against JTL's current 4 lakh tons, representing a step-change in total capacity.
Long-Term Volume Trajectory
- Management laid out a multi-year volume path: FY26 at 4.5-5 lakh tons, FY27 at 6-6.5 lakh tons, FY28 at 9 lakh tons, and FY29 crossing 0.1 crore tons (0.1 crore tons). The path is anchored on capacity coming online and demand absorption.
- VAP share expected to improve: The proportion of volumes going to the commercial category should rise in the short term, supporting the mix.
Pranav Singla: "Next year, it should be going to 6.5 lakh tons. And then the year next to that, it should be going to 9 lakh tons. And finally, FY '29, it should be crossing 0.1 crore tons of sales volume."
Guidance & Commitments
| Commitment | Specifics | Timeline |
|---|---|---|
| FY26 sales volume | 4.5 to 5 lakh tons | FY26 full year |
| Q3 sales volume | ~120,000 tons | Q3 FY26 |
| Q4 sales volume | 140,000 to 150,000 tons | Q4 FY26 |
| FY26 EBITDA per ton | INR4,000 | FY26 full year |
| FY27 sales volume | 6 to 6.5 lakh tons | FY27 full year |
| FY28 sales volume | 9 lakh tons | FY28 full year |
| FY29 sales volume | Crossing 0.1 crore tons (0.1 crore tons) | FY29 full year |
| Maharashtra narrow-width GI coil line | Start production | Mid-January |
| Maharashtra color-coated plant | Start production | End of H1 |
| RC Industries consolidation | Fully owned subsidiary, consolidated | Q3 FY26 onwards |
| RC Industries topline contribution | Meaningful contribution to JTL | Starting next year |
Key Metrics
| Metric | Q2 FY26 |
|---|---|
| Consolidated revenue | ₹431 cr, down 20.5% QoQ |
| Consolidated EBITDA | ₹37 cr, up 21.5% QoQ |
| Consolidated PAT | ₹22 cr, up 37% QoQ |
| Standalone revenue | ₹875 cr (H1 FY26), down 11% YoY |
| Standalone EBITDA | ₹33 cr, up 27% QoQ; down 13% YoY |
| Standalone PAT | ₹20 cr, up 25% QoQ; down 23% YoY |
| EBITDA per ton | ₹4,300, up from ₹2,300 in Q1 |
| Full-year EBITDA per ton guidance | ₹4,000 |
| Total sales volume (consolidated) | 182,210 MT (H1 FY26), up 3.5% YoY |
| Standalone sales volume | 160,629 MT (H1 FY26), down 9% YoY |
| Export sales | ₹63 cr, up 46% QoQ; down 18% YoY |
| Volume loss from Punjab floods | 23,000 tons |
| Capacity utilization | 43%–44%; would have been 50%–55% without floods |
| DFT pipes EBITDA per ton | ₹3,500–₹4,000, improved from EBITDA negative in Q1 |
| FY27 sales volume guidance | 6–6.5 lakh tons |
| HR coil to Patra spread | ₹6–₹7 per kg |