1. Buyback - 21,50,000 shares at ₹1,380 Delivered - At the Q4 FY26 call, management announced a buyback of equity shares. Buyback of 21,50,000 equity shares (1.35% of paid-up equity capital) at ₹1,380 per share, aggregating up to ₹296.70 crore, was completed.
2. FY26 tile exports - ₹18,000-20,000 cr Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, Ashok Kajaria said exports "will definitely be between ₹18,000 crores to ₹20,000 crores" in FY26, vs ₹16,000 cr in FY25; by Q3 FY26 the estimate was cut to around ₹16,000 cr. 9-month FY26 exports were ₹12,000 cr, and Q1 FY27 confirmed the run rate was lower than FY26's ₹16,000 cr.
3. Margins - 14-15% in FY26 Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, Ashok Kajaria affirmed margins will move to 14%, 15% next year (FY26); by Q4 FY26 he was confident of maintaining 18% to 19%. FY26 EBITDA margin was 17.84%, with Q4 FY26 at 19.19%, exceeding the 14-15% target.
4. Employee cost as % of sales - back to FY24 level in FY26 Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, Ashok Kajaria assured employee cost as % of sales would be brought back "at par with '23-'24" in FY26, correcting the \~150-200 bps excess. FY26 staff cost of ₹530 cr on revenue of ₹4,830 cr works to \~11% of sales, down from the 13% level in Q3 FY25.
5. Three-year vision - revenue ₹6,500 cr, tiles ₹5,500 cr, EBITDA 15-17% On track - At the May 2024 call, management set a three-year roadmap of consolidated revenue ₹6,500 crore - tiles ₹5,500 crore, bathware ₹675 crore - with EBITDA margin 15% to 17%, and held to it through Q3 FY25 before admitting guidance failure at Q4 FY25. FY26 revenue was ₹4,830 cr and tiles ₹4,280 cr, both below target, while EBITDA margin of 17.84% exceeded the range; the FY25-FY27 window is still open.
6. Second adhesive plant at Erode - 9,000 MT/month by end of FY26 Missed - In the FY25 Annual Report, management stated the second adhesive plant of 9,000 MT per month capacity at Erode, Tamil Nadu, was expected to be commissioned by the end of this year. The FY26 Annual Report still lists the Erode facility as planned, with no commissioning disclosed.
7. Town presence - 2,000 towns in 3 years Pending - At the May 2024 call, management aspired to expand town presence from 1,000 towns to 2,000 towns over the next 3 years. Presence stood at 1,000 towns as of FY24, and no later town count appears in our record.
8. Dividend payout - 40-50% of consolidated PAT On track - At the Q3 FY25 call, Sanjeev Agarwal said dividend payout would remain around 40% to 50% per the stated policy, with no change expected "in near to medium term". FY26 PAT was ₹485.41 cr and the interim dividend was increased a bit versus the last 2 years, with dividends paid per policy for the last 3-4 years.
9. Kerovit - acquire remaining 15% stake Delivered - At the Q1 FY27 call, management announced the decision to acquire the remaining 15% stake in Kerovit from Aravali Investment Holdings. Kajaria had bought out the key investor's entire 15% stake for ₹50 crores in Q4 FY26, before the announcement.
10. Bathware (Kerovit) - 35-40% value growth in FY27 On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided Bathware (Kerovit) value growth of about 35% to 40% for the entire year FY27. Q1 FY27 Bathware revenue grew 33% to ₹122 crores, close to the guided range with the year still open.
11. Outsourcing - close to 40% in next 12 months On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management confirmed the target of reaching close to 40% outsourcing in the next 12 months or so, from 29-30%. Current outsourcing stands at 29-30%, with no further read yet.
12. Tile sales - 13 cr sqm in FY27 On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided tile sales of about 13 crore square meters in FY27, vs 11.8 crore sqm sold last year. Q1 FY27 volume growth was 6%, below the \~10% full-year pace the target implies, with the year still open.
13. Dealer additions - 100 dealers in FY27, 50 exclusive On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management expected to add another 100 dealers during the year, of which 50 will be exclusive Kajaria dealers. The current count is \~1,800 dealers with 450 exclusive, and no further read is available yet.
14. Srikalahasti expansion - 1 cr sqm brownfield On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management announced a 1 crore sqm brownfield expansion at Srikalahasti at ₹210 crores, first flagged last quarter. No completion has been disclosed; the project is in progress.
15. Gailpur expansion - 1.1 cr sqm by April 2027 On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management committed that the Bhiwadi/Gailpur (Rajasthan) expansion of 1.1 crore sqm at a cost of ₹165 crores will be completed by April 2027. No completion has been disclosed; the project is in progress with spillover into next year.
16. FY27 EBITDA - ₹1,000 cr plus On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided to ₹1,000 crores plus EBITDA overall for FY27. Q1 FY27 EBITDA was \~₹260 cr (19.60% of ₹1,328 cr revenue), annualizing to \~₹1,040 cr, consistent with the target.
17. FY27 EBITDA margin - 18-19% On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided an EBITDA margin of 18% to 19% for the entire year FY27. Q1 FY27 EBITDA margin was 19.60%, above the guided range with the year still open.
18. FY27 revenue growth - 20% plus On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management confirmed FY27 revenue growth of 20% plus, driven by about 10% volume growth and 10% value growth. Q1 FY27 consolidated revenue grew 20% YoY to ₹1,328 crores, consistent with the full-year target.
19. FY27 volume growth - double-digit for next 9 months On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided to double-digit volume growth for the next 9 months of FY27, "with a lot of confidence". Q1 FY27 volume growth was 6% YoY despite a soft April, while May and June saw good growth continuing into July; the 9-month window is still open.
20. Promoter salary forgo - until ₹1,000 cr EBITDA run-rate On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, Ashok Kajaria committed that promoters will forgo their salary until the company reaches a run-rate of ₹1,000 crores EBITDA, and reiterated at Q1 FY27 they will not take salary this financial year either. Q1 FY27 EBITDA crossed the ₹250 crore mark - \~₹260 cr on 19.60% margin over ₹1,328 cr revenue - meeting the run-rate condition, with promoters still forgoing salary.
21. Adhesives - ₹120 cr plus in FY26 Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, Chetan Kajaria guided adhesives turnover of "₹120 crores plus this financial year" (FY26), versus ₹75 crores last year. Quarterly revenues of ₹25 cr, ₹32 cr, ₹35 cr and ₹44 cr summed to approximately ₹136 cr for FY26, exceeding the target.
22. Government project business - 12.5-13% of sales volume in FY25 Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, Ashok Kajaria guided government business at 12.5%-13% of overall sales volume in FY25, vs 10% last year, rising to 15% next year. At Q4 FY25 the actual was \~6% for FY25, and the FY26 target was reset to 8-10% of volumes.
23. FY25 EBITDA margin - 15-17% Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management reiterated EBITDA guidance of 15% to 17% for FY25, first given at the annual meet in May, and lowered it to \~15% at Q2 FY25. FY25 EBITDA margin was 13.51%, with Q4 FY25 at 11.32%, falling below even the lowered \~15% target.
24. FY25 revenue growth - 8-9% Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided FY25 revenue growth of around 8-9%. FY25 revenue grew 3.60% to ₹4,635 crore, with quarterly growth fading from +5% in Q1 to -1% in Q4, well short of the target.
25. FY25 volume growth - 11-12% Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided around 8-9% revenue growth versus 11-12% volume growth for FY25, revised down to 9-10% at Q2 FY25 and "close to between 8% to 9%" at Q3 FY25. FY25 tile volume growth was 6%, reaching 11.5 crore sqm, short of even the revised target.
26. Keronite (KTPL) - optimum utilization by Q4 FY25 Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management expected the Keronite unit to achieve optimum capacity utilization by Q4 FY25, later saying it would not go very aggressive and was testing the market. The plant was at \~38% utilization in Q2 FY25, and by Q1 FY26 the Keronite strategy was discontinued after market testing did not do well.
27. Plywood - breakeven in FY26 Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, Ashok Kajaria said plywood would still lose money in FY25 "to the order of about ₹6 cr to ₹7 cr", and "next year after that, we should be able to breakeven" (FY26). The plywood division was decided to be closed at Q4 FY25, before the breakeven target could be attempted.
28. Plywood - ₹150 cr revenue in FY25 Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, Chetan Kajaria said the FY25 target is ₹150 crores, "very confident of hitting ₹150 crores mark in this coming financial year '24-'25". Quarterly revenues fell from ₹18 cr in Q1 FY25 to ₹5 cr in Q4 FY25 as the division was decided to be closed, far short of ₹150 cr.
29. Plywood - ₹100 cr revenue in FY24 Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management targeted ₹100 crores revenue for plywood in FY24, 30% growth from ₹77 crores in FY23, reiterated through Q3 FY24. Quarterly revenues of ₹14 cr, ₹23 cr, ₹34 cr and ₹33 cr summed to ₹104 crore for FY24, achieving the target.
30. Total capacity - \~89 MSM by end of FY24 Partial - At the Q1 FY24 call, management expected to take total capacity from \~81 MSM to about 89 MSM by end of FY24. Sikandrabad added 3 MSM in August 2023 and Gailpur 1.9 MSM in September 2023, taking capacity to \~86.45 MSM against the 81.55 MSM FY23 base, short of the target.
31. Gailpur modernization - 0.26 cr tile capacity by end of August 2023 Partial - At the Q1 FY24 call, management committed to commission 0.26 crore tile capacity at Gailpur by end of August 2023. The expansion-cum-modernization was commissioned in September 2023, one month late, adding 0.19 crore sqm versus 0.26 cr guided.
32. FY24 EBITDA margin - 14-16% Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided 14% to 16% EBITDA margins for FY24, later saying "we will be at the upper end" and revising to about 15.5% plus for the nine months. FY24 EBITDA margin was 15.28%, within the guided range, though Q4 FY24 slipped to 13.86%.
33. FY24 revenue growth - 14-16% Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided 14% to 16% revenue growth for FY24. FY24 revenue grew 2.10% to ₹4,474 crore, with quarterly growth fading from +4.07% in Q2 to +0.28% in Q4, far below the target.
34. FY24 volume growth - 13-15% Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided \~13% to 15% volume growth for FY24, revised down to "close to about 9% to 10%" at Q2 FY24. FY24 sales volume grew 6.3% to 108.14 MSM, short of even the revised 9-10% target.
35. Adhesive division - ₹50 cr turnover in FY23 Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, management targeted around ₹50 crores of turnover for the adhesive division in FY23, when H1 FY23 revenue was \~₹17 cr. FY23 was not achieved; FY24 adhesives revenue reached ₹50 crore, one year late, rising to ₹75 crore in FY25.
36. Q3/Q4 FY23 margins - 14% plus Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided Q3 and Q4 FY23 margins to be at least 2 percentage points better than Q2, i.e., "14% plus in Q3 and Q4". Q3 FY23 EBITDA margin was 12.20%, missing the target, while Q4 FY23 came in at 14% plus, higher by 240 bps QoQ.
37. Working capital days - return to 57 days by December 2022 Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, management expected working capital days to return to 57 days by end of December 2022, from 61 days as of September 30, 2022, later committing to 50 days by end of March 2025. December 2022 closed at 66 days, missing the target; the March 2025 target of 50 days was nearly met at 51 days, and Q1 FY27 reached 46 days.
38. Nepal plant - full 0.8 cr sqm by FY25-FY26 Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management said the Nepal plant's first-year production may be a little less, but by the second year (FY25-FY26) the full 0.8 crore sqm should be achieved. The plant's rated capacity was itself revised down to 0.51 crore sqm, and utilization ran at 49-50% in Q4 FY25 and 60-70% in Q1 FY26, never reaching full capacity.
39. Nepal JV plant - 0.8 cr sqm by March 2024 Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided the Nepal JV manufacturing facility (0.8 crore sqm, total investment ₹250 cr, Kajaria share ₹125 cr) to be commissioned by March 2024, with later revisions to June 2024 and September 2024 and project cost revised to ₹181.49 cr for 5.1 MSM. The project was commissioned in September 2024, six months late, and ran at 50% utilization in Q4 FY25.
40. Sikandrabad GVT expansion - 0.3 cr sqm by September 2023 Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided a new 0.3 crore sqm bigger-size GVT capacity at Sikandrabad, UP, with total investment of ₹80 crores, to be commissioned by September 2023. The project was commissioned in August 2023 with 0.3 crore sqm of GVT capacity, ahead of the deadline.
41. Faucet expansion - capacity by October 2022 Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management said the faucet expansion "is also going to come by October". The 6 lakh pieces p.a. expansion, taking total capacity to 16 lakh pieces p.a. at an estimated cost of ₹5 crore approx., was completed by July 2022, before the October commitment.
42. A&P spend - ₹100 cr plus in FY23 Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided A&P spend of ₹100 crores plus for FY23, later guiding \~₹135 crores for FY24 at Q1 FY24 and ₹130-140 crores at Q2 FY24. FY23 spend was roughly ₹108 crores, beating the guided floor, and FY24 A&P stood at ₹131 crore, within the revised range.
43. Capex - ₹300 cr every year Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, Ashok Kajaria reiterated capex guidance of "close to Rs. 300 crores CAPEX" every year, later revised to ₹200-250 cr annually and then \~₹100-150 cr for FY26. Actual capex was \~₹90 cr in FY23, ₹370 cr in FY24, ₹250 cr in FY25 and \~₹100-150 cr in FY26, falling short of ₹300 cr in FY23 and FY26.
44. Dealer additions - 400 dealers in three years, 170-175 exclusive Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management planned to add close to 400 dealers in the next three years, of which at least 170-175 would be exclusive Kajaria dealers, restated at Q2 FY23 as 450 dealers over three years. Net dealer count stayed roughly flat around 1,800-1,850 through the window - \~1,800 with 450 exclusive at Q1 FY27 - with FY24 adding 200 dealers while removing \~150 non-performing ones.
45. Bath ware segment - 30-35% volume and turnover growth every year for three years Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, Rishi Kajaria guided 30% to 35% volume and turnover growth every year for the next three years for bath ware, from ₹275 crores in FY22, later lowered to 20% plus for FY24 and roughly 10% for FY25. Growth never reached 30-35% in any year - quarterly readings ranged from flat in Q1 FY26 to +16% in Q3 FY24 - and FY25 bathware EBITDA margin fell to 4% from 8% in FY23-24.
46. Sanitary ware expansion - peak revenue ₹175-190 cr, production from July FY23 Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided the ₹80 crore sanitary ware expansion (\~8 lakh pieces p.a.) would generate peak revenue of around ₹175 to ₹190 crores, with commercial production starting in July FY23. Kerovit Global (Morbi) commenced commercial production of 4.50 lakh pieces on 30th March 2024, about 9 months late, with the balance 1.5 lakh pieces expected in FY25 and no disclosed read on peak revenue.
47. FY23 volume growth - 15-20% volume, 20-25% revenue Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided 15% to 20% volume growth and revenue growth of about 20% to 25% for FY23, citing completion of three expansions, softened at Q2 FY23 to "close to 15% volume growth". FY23 sales volumes grew 11% and revenue grew 18% to ₹4,382 crore, both below the guided ranges.