Kalyani Forge Ltd Q2 FY2026 Concall Summary & Transcript Notes

Source transcript PDF: https://www.stockscans.in/document/74xkmgw1iy7ex5fuut1ey48d.pdf

# 1. Financial Performance

## A. Key Figures
   * PAT: ₹2.15 Cr Q (+53% vs prior Q) · ₹1.4 Cr previous quarter

## B. Revenue Trends
   *   **Export Headwinds, Domestic Resilience:** Revenue decline driven by

   **C. S. tariff impacts** and weak global auto demand, while domestic operations remained stable and expanded in new segments.
   *   **H1 Stability Amid Macro Pressures:** Despite flat top-line, business maintained profitability and navigated a global automobile downturn through strategic focus.

## C. Profit Margins
   *   **Sharp Profit Recovery:** Significant sequential improvement in PAT margin on cost discipline, clean audit actions, and **optimized product mix**, even as revenues fell.
   *   **Cost Inflation Partially Offset:** Employee costs rose by **₹2 Cr** due to audit provisions and strategic hiring, creating margin pressure not fully offset by turnover.
   *   **Non-Operational Boost:** Profitability aided by **forex gain of ₹94 lakh**, supporting bottom-line resilience.

## D. Balance Sheet & Cash Flow
   *   **CapEx Momentum:** Fixed asset base expanded via ongoing investments, with **58% of projects completed or underway**, signaling continued operational scaling.
   *   **Funding Outlook:** Working capital needs expected to rise with expansion; cash flow optimization initiatives in place to ensure liquidity agility.

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# 2. Order Book & Demand

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Order Pipeline:** **₹200 Cr** (comprising ₹95 Cr and ₹115 Cr segments) targeting SOP conversion

## B. New Order Wins
   *   **Near-Term Execution:** New MNC order execution commences this quarter, providing visibility into future revenue and improved capacity utilization.
   *   **Growth Catalyst:** H2 strategy prioritizes converting a substantial order pipeline into start of production, with one Europe transmission project already in SOP.

## C. Customer Validation
   *   **Execution Headwinds:** Progress on new order ramp-up is constrained by **customer validation and engine testing lead times**, creating near-term bottlenecks.
   *   **Growth Focus:** BD efforts emphasize accelerating production ramp and securing incremental orders to fuel next-year growth.

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# 3. Product & Segment Performance

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Revenue Mix (Q2 FY26):** **62%** engine · **19%** driveline · **10%** Axel · **10%** other products
   *   **US Export Exposure:** **15%** of engine product group
   *   **New Axel Order Value:** **₹5–10 Cr** annualized

## B. Engine Business
   *   **Revenue Mix Dominance:** Engine segment remains the core revenue driver despite minimal exposure to US exports, reflecting strong domestic and global demand.
   *   **Mature Global Platform:** Engine business, the company’s longest-standing segment, maintains a diversified geographic footprint and includes key components like connecting rods.

## C. Axel Business
   *   **Growth Trajectory:** Axel business shows sustained momentum with two consecutive quarters of stable-to-strong growth, emerging as a strategic growth pillar.
   *   **New Customer Ramp-Up:** Secured new MNC customer in Q2, with volume ramp expected over the next six months post-validation.
   *   **Portfolio Expansion:** Recent order win adds **₹5–10 Cr** in annual revenue, enhancing scale and strategic importance of the Axel segment.

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# 4. Capacity & CapEx

## A. Key Figures
   *   **CapEx Execution:** **58%** executed to date (target: 100% by year-end)
   *   **Value Gains:** **₹17 Cr** savings from Vrindhi Council initiatives in first year

## B. CapEx Execution
   *   **Growth Triad in Action:** CapEx is a core pillar of the KFL growth formula, with **seven crores** of projects commissioned last quarter and moved from CWIP.
   *   **Structured CapEx Allocation:** Four key programme categories—Recon & Productivity, Ramp-Up Business, New Business, and Infrastructure—align investment with operational maturity and growth visibility.
   *   **Execution Discipline with Flexibility:** CapEx execution at 58%, on track for full deployment, with built-in agility to reallocate based on demand shifts or strategic priorities.

## C. SOP Ramp-ups
   *   **Production Momentum:** SOP achieved for Europe transmission business, with active ramp-up underway in new driveline programmes.

## D. Infrastructure Projects
   *   **Governance & Systems Upgrade:** Implemented SAP-driven ERP controls and compliance management software, enabling automated workflows, full compliance tracking, and clean audit outcomes.
   *   **Stronger Internal Controls:** IFC score improved this quarter, reinforcing system-led decision-making and scalability for long-term growth.

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# 5. Export & Geography Mix

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Export Sales Mix:** **20%** of total sales (↓ from 23%)
   *   **B. S. Order Book Exposure:** **15%** of total order book

## B. US Market Exposure
   *   **Resilient Growth Despite Tariff Pressure:** Robust momentum maintained despite lower U.S. tariff-affected exports, underpinned by strong domestic demand post-GST cut.
   *   **Export Mix Shift:** Strategic pivot toward high-volume non-auto U.S. exports in stationary engines and power generation, mitigating truck-sector headwinds.

## C. Europe Expansion
   *   **New Markets Offset U.S. Challenges:** Europe export ramp-up on track, with SOPs initiated and new transmission business now shipping, set for scaling.
   *   **Strategic Portfolio Refocus:** Legacy low-volume export businesses under review to prioritize scalable, future-proof segments.

## D. Domestic Growth
   *   **Domestic Portfolio as Growth Lever:** The **85% non-U.S. portfolio** represents a key execution opportunity, with confidence in sustained margin performance.

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# 6. Risks & Auto Demand

## A. US Tariff Impact
   *   **Order Delays Due to Tariff Uncertainty:** U.S. tariff concerns are driving customer destocking and order deferrals, creating near-term demand softness pending policy clarity.
   *   **Margin Pressure Across Three Quarters:** Cost absorption related to tariffs will weigh on margins through **Q3**, with potential extension into **Q4**, indicating prolonged near-term headwinds.

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# 7. Guidance & Outlook
  
## A. Key Figures
   *No significant quantitative financial metrics provided for consolidation.*

## B. H2 Revenue View
   *   **H2 Growth Drivers Identified:** Improvement expected on the back of order book execution, Vriddhi CapEx initiatives, and capacity ramp-ups, reversing stagnant H1 trends.  
   *   **Seasonal Rebound Anticipated:** Stronger market pull in Q3 and Q4 aligns with historical patterns, though no specific growth guidance issued.  
   *   **Strategic Priorities Confirmed:** Business expansion and governance/compliance initiatives to be advanced in tandem to support sustainable scale.  

## C. Margin Expectations
   *   **Margin Resilience Focus:** EBITDA margin enhancement remains a priority despite tariff headwinds, supported by efficiency gains and improved price realization.  

## D. Fundraising Plans
   *   **Equity Infusion Under Review:** Board is actively evaluating fundraising options with internal timelines, but disclosure delayed due to **price sensitivity**.