Kansai Nerolac Paints Ltd Guidance Report - SOIC x StockScans Report
as of Sep 2026
- Powder business - keep 40% growth momentum
Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, Amrit Rekhi stated powder business grew 40% over the last 3 years and "we want to keep the same momentum going in the future as well". Q1 FY26 growth was slightly muted on weak appliances, Q4 FY26 showed mid-single-digit recovery, and Q1 FY27 was robust - all well below the 40% pace.
- Auto market share - continue to increase in next 2 years
On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, Amrit Rekhi said in Auto, "we believe we will continue to, in the next two years, continue to increase our share". Auto gained share in Q1 FY26, industrial share grew in Q3 FY26, auto was close to double-digit growth in Q4 FY26 and strong in Q1 FY27.
- M&A for Industrial - within medium term
Pending - At the Q4 FY25 call, Tomioka stated for Industrial, "M&A is what we would like to aim for" within the medium term, at a scale of "several hundred million yen". At Q2 FY26 the company held close to ₹2,000 crores of cash and investments with continuous scanning of inorganic options, but no M&A transaction has been announced.
- Premium Wood Finish - high single-digit growth target
Delivered - The Q1 FY27 PPT targeted Premium Wood Finish at high single-digit growth. In Q1 FY27, premium wood finishes recorded high single-digit growth, meeting the target.
- Construction Chemical & Waterproofing - double-digit growth target
Delivered - The Q1 FY27 PPT targeted Construction Chemical & Waterproofing at double-digit growth. Construction chemicals recorded double-digit growth in Q1 FY27, after strong double-digit performance in Q2 and Q3 FY26.
- Project/Institutional business - double-digit growth target
Delivered - The Q1 FY27 PPT targeted double-digit growth in Project/Institutional business with geographical reach increased to 80+ cities; at Q1 FY25 management had targeted high double-digit growth in project business "this year". Q1 FY27 recorded double-digit growth with 80-plus cities, after more than 85 cities in Q2 FY26 and high double-digit growth in Q4 FY26.
- Monetization of idle land parcels
Delivered - The Board approved a proposal for monetization of idle land parcels not put to productive use, with exchange disclosure on signing definitive agreements. Land at Thane was sold for ₹671 crores by Q1 FY24, and the Lower Parel Mumbai sale brought a net profit of ₹665.4 cr in Q3 FY25, after almost ₹600 crore flow-through in Q3 FY23.
- Kansai Paint group India short-term aspiration - revenue CAGR \~9%, EBITDA margin 14-15% (next 3 years)
On track - Kansai Paint's group short-term aspiration for India over the next 3 years was revenue CAGR of \~9% and EBITDA margin of \~14-15%. FY26 revenue grew 2.9% consolidated with PBDIT margin of 12.7% standalone / 12.1% consolidated, while Q1 FY27 showed 9.8% growth and 14.6% standalone / 13.8% consolidated margins.
- Kansai Paint group India revenue CAGR \~10% by 2030
On track - Kansai Paint's group long-term target for the India segment was revenue CAGR of \~10% by 2030. FY26 revenue growth was 2.9% consolidated, while Q1 FY27 growth was 9.8% consolidated - close to the target, with no read yet on the 2030 CAGR.
- Performance Coatings - double-digit growth endeavour
On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management's endeavour was to grow Performance Coatings double-digit, contingent on infrastructure spend continuing. In Q4 FY26 the liquid segment grew strongly while powder was mid-single-digit, and in Q1 FY27 Performance Coating Liquids saw very strong growth with Powder Coatings robust.
- Decorative volume-value gap - maintain at nil
Partial - At the Q3 FY26 call, management's intent was to keep the decorative volume-value gap at the same (nil) level going forward; at Q4 FY25 Pravin Chaudhari had said Decorative volume and value growth "should match going forward". The gap was nil in Q3 FY26 and "not very significant" in Q4 FY26, but in Q1 FY27 value grew high-single digit against low single-digit volume - a gap emerged.
- New product contribution - 10-12% target
Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management targeted new product contribution of "about 10% to 12%"; at Q4 FY25 Rohit Malkani said new products (\~10% of Decorative sales in the last 3 years) "will continue" on a healthy pipeline. Contribution crossed 10% of decorative in Q1 FY26, exceeded 10% by Q3 FY26, and the Paint+ range contributed more than 12% of sales by Q1 FY27.
- Non-auto industrial growth - higher single digit to double digit
Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided non-auto industrial growth to be higher single digit or "just touching about double digit". Industrial grew higher single digit in Q1 FY26, lower single digit in Q2 FY26, touched double-digit in Q3 FY26 and slightly higher single-digit in Q4 FY26.
- Auto (OEM) coatings growth - mid-single digit going forward
Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided auto (OEM) coatings growth to be in mid-single digit going forward; at Q2 FY26 management agreed auto value growth of high single digit was possible in H2 FY26. Auto gained share with slightly sluggish demand in Q1 FY26, grew lower single-digit in Q2 FY26, was close to double-digit in Q4 FY26 and strong in Q1 FY27.
- Nerofix subsidiary - healthy contribution by FY26 year-end
Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management said Nerofix "should be performing well and should healthily contribute to our overall consolidated performance" by year-end FY26. Nerofix turned EBITDA positive in Q2 FY26, grew at higher double-digit with significantly improved profitability in Q3 FY26, and performed well with strong topline growth per the FY26 Annual Report.
- Number one in industrial (including non-auto) in next 2 years
On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management stated its endeavour is to be number one in industrial, even non-auto business, in the next 2 years; at Q4 FY25 headquarters' expectations under the new CEO included becoming #1 in Industrial coatings, and the group expected India to maintain No.1 in Auto and be No.1 in industrial coatings. At Q4 FY25 Kansai Nerolac was #1 in Auto and Powder, #3 in Décor, General Industrial and High Performance, and #4 in Auto finish, with no change disclosed at Q1 FY27.
- Capacity expansion - Sayakha, Bawal, Hosur (₹601 cr, 66,000 KL, by FY 2028-29)
On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management announced capacity expansion for automotive, powder coating and resin at Sayakha, Bawal and Hosur with total capex of ₹601 crores, 66,000 KL per year of capacity addition and close to 10,000 metric tons per year of resin capacity, with announcements detailing phased completion by end of FY 2028-29. The ₹600-crore outlay will be spread over about "2-plus years", and no capacity has been commissioned yet as of Q1 FY27.
- Capacity expansion - total capacity to reach 700+ crore litres post Vizag and Jaipur
Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided total capacity would move from 611 crore litres to "around 700+" post Vizag and Jaipur, with decorative capacity up around 25-30%. The Jainpur water-based facility capitalized in Q1 FY26 added about 44,000 KL, and Q1 FY27 brought a further 66,000 KL announcement at Sayakha, Bawal and Hosur, but no disclosure confirms 700+ crore litres - Q3 FY25 capacity of 6.16 lakh KL (61.6 crore litres) suggests the target may not be reached yet.
- Capex - FY25 more than ₹300 cr
Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided capex for FY25 will be "more than 300" crore. FY25 total capex was ₹3,496 mn (₹349.6 cr), with CWIP rising from 153 in FY24 to 226 in FY25 - above the guided level.
- Secondary-sale tracking - reach 50-60% in next few years
On track - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided that secondary-sale tracking visibility, currently 20% of sale, will reach "more than 50-60% of sale" in the "next few years". Tracking crossed more than 40% in emulsion categories with painter programs by Q2 FY25, secondary-to-primary salience increased significantly by Q4 FY25, and the Pragati program covered 65,000 painters in Q1 FY27.
- Services business - potential to reach 10% of sales in 3-5 years
On track - At the Q3 FY24 call, management expected organized painting services to grow from 1-2% of the paint market to "a 10% of the market" in "3 years' time or 5 years' time"; at Q4 FY24 the services business, then less than 5% of sale, "has a potential to go up to 10%" in the next 3-5 years. Services touched around 5% of business by Q3 FY25, stayed at 5% through FY26, and were present in more than 250 cities by Q4 FY26.
- Industrial value growth - 8-10% for FY25
Partial - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided industrial business value growth of 8% to 10% for FY25. Industrial grew higher single digit in Q1 FY25, positive in Q2 FY25 and high single digit in Q3 FY25, with no full-year FY25 figure disclosed in the notes.
- Decorative volume growth - 8-10% for FY25
Partial - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided decorative volume growth of 8% to 10% for FY25; at Q4 FY24, Q4's double-digit decorative volume growth was expected to sustain into the coming year "plus or minus 2%", and at Q1 FY25 management said high single-digit volume growth was possible for the year. Decorative volume grew mid-single digit in Q1 FY25, around 4% overall in Q2 FY25 and only marginally positive in Q3 FY25, with no full-year figure disclosed.
- Medium-term EBITDA margin - 14-15% in 2-3 years, 18% long-term
On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, Kansai Paint (Tomioka) stated the aim to reach high EBITDA margins "in the next 2 or 3 years" - "We will aim for 14%-15% on our road to achieve 18%", with the group's 2030 India target at \~18% EBITDA margin; Pravin Chaudhari and Prashant Pai framed the same 14-15% trajectory over 2-3 years. FY26 PBDIT margin was 12.7% standalone / 12.1% consolidated, while Q1 FY27 reached 14.6% standalone / 13.8% consolidated, with the medium-term endeavour reiterated at Q1 FY27.
- FY27 EBITDA margin - 13-14%
On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management reiterated 13-14% PBDIT margin guidance for FY27, confirming it at Q1 FY27 with endeavour to maintain 13-14% margins. Q1 FY27 standalone PBDIT margin was 14.6% and consolidated 13.8%, with reported financials OPM at 13.83% - within the guided range, with the full year not yet reached.
- FY26 EBITDA margin - 13-14%
Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided FY26 EBITDA margin at 13% to 14%, reiterated the 13%+ target at Q2 FY26 and maintained "13% to 14% is what we maintain even now" at Q3 FY26. FY26 standalone PBDIT margin was 12.7% and consolidated 12.1%, while management stated at Q4 FY26 that FY26 "we were in that range only".
- FY25 EBITDA margin - maintain FY24 level
Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management targeted maintaining EBITDA margin on an annual basis versus FY24, guiding "in the range of 13% to 14%" at Q2 FY25 and reiterating it at Q3 FY25. FY25 standalone EBITDA margin was 13.0% and consolidated 12.0%, with management stating FY25 ended at 13% - within the guided range.
- FY24 EBITDA margin - \~14% sustainable
Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided \~14% EBITDA margin "should be on a sustainable basis" for FY24, reaffirmed as "around 14%" at Q3 FY24, with the 13-14% consolidated band reiterated at Q4 FY24. FY24 standalone EBITDA margin was 13.8% and consolidated 13.2%, with management confirming 13.8% achieved matched the target band.
- Industrial margins - reach double-digit EBITDA
Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management stated the plan to take industrial margins from "single-digit low" to "maybe a double digit", targeting double-digit EBITDA at Q4 FY23 and committing to hold it at Q3 FY24, with 10-12% stated as the sustainable band at Q4 FY24. Industrial margins "got into a double digit" in Q1 FY24, recovered to the targeted level by Q3 FY24, and stayed in double digits through Q1 FY25, close to decorative margins by Q4 FY25.
- Decorative capacity expansion - ₹290 cr, 25-30 months
Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management committed the newly announced Vizag and Jainpur decorative capacity projects would be completed "over a period of next 25 to 30 months" at ₹290 crores, repeatedly reaffirmed as on track through Q1 FY25. Hosur was completed in Q2 FY24, Vizag Phase 1 was commissioned with production started in FY24-25, and the Jainpur water-based facility was capitalized in Q1 FY26 adding about 44,000 KL.
- Share of voice - maintain at \~15%
Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management committed to maintaining share of voice equal to or better than market share, at \~14-15% per Q1 FY23 and around 15% "irrespective of that what business pressure comes" per Q2 FY23. Share of voice was "a little higher than 15%" in Q1 FY23, around 15% in Q2 FY23 and maintained at 15% in Q3 FY23, with ad spend sustained at 4.5-5% of sales through FY24 and continued in line thereafter.
- New businesses (construction chemicals, adhesives, wood finishes) - >5% salience by mid-2023
Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management targeted salience of more than 5% from new businesses (construction chemicals, adhesives, wood coatings) "in a year's time", reiterated at Q1 FY23 as the first milestone. Salience touched 5% in Q1 FY23, rose to around 6% in Q2 FY23 and 7-8% by Q3 FY23, reaching double digits by Q3 FY25 and 10% plus of total sales by Q4 FY26.
- Distribution expansion - double-digit annual additions
Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, management confirmed distribution expansion of \~10% should continue in the medium term as "our objective", guiding double-digit additions at Q1 FY24, 10% for FY24 at Q3 FY24, 8-10% at Q1 FY25, and 5-10% every year at Q1 FY27. Expansion ran at 8-10% in FY22, double-digit through FY24, 2,000-plus dealers added in Q2 FY25 and 3,500 by December of FY26, with 1,700 dealers added in Q1 FY27 - FY26 direct-dealer addition was mid-single digit but offset by higher double-digit sub-dealer additions.